{"id":1238643286098632700,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150546000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I believe that a 5-6 day doubling is an accurate model for growth, so that sparks that landed in mid-Jan may have grown to ~2000 infections at this point and sparks that arrived in mid-Feb may have grown to ~50 infections at this point. 4/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":177,"likes_count":825,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643286098632704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643285045833700,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150546000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Although it looks like I was off by a week or two, I think the basic model was sound. Outbreaks that we're seeing across the US now are likely the result of sparks that landed in mid-Jan to mid-Feb that through exponential growth have become localized \"fires\". 3/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":197,"likes_count":952,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643285045833730","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238291373993808000,"conversation_id":"1238290215178887169","created_at":1584066644000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"02:30:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm basing their logic on this quote: \"Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it,\" said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":69,"likes_count":386,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238291373993807873","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238290774418051000,"conversation_id":"1238290215178887169","created_at":1584066501000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"02:28:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I don't doubt community spread is happening Ohio and it's highly difficult to do these prevalence estimates well without wider surveillance efforts, but I think this is certainly a strong overestimate. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":49,"likes_count":450,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238290774418051077","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238290586349666300,"conversation_id":"1238290215178887169","created_at":1584066456000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"02:27:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Another way to look at this is that it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case, which is almost certainly not the case. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":55,"likes_count":425,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238290586349666307","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238181107910111200,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584040355000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"19:12:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Follow up: Not all cases are the same. New introduction events into areas without endemic US circulation is an issue. Some fraction of new endemic infections could introduce the virus to a new geography, but not all will, while European introductions may be more likely to do so.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":188,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238181107910111232","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238176249354174500,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584039196000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:53:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"(Revised tweet #13. I felt more exact language was necessary.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":82,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238176249354174464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238175890346872800,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584039111000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:51:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I believe the focus needs to be on testing and case finding in the US to slow transmission here. Introductions through air travel are likely to have a more minor impact at this point. 13/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":173,"likes_count":633,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238175890346872832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172917684289500,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038402000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:40:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I've tried to be conservative in this estimate, sources of error (lack of testing in US vs Europe, current travel behavior) would throw things in the direction of higher ratio of endemic infections rather than lower. 12/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":144,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172917684289536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172829457109000,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038381000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:39:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This is a ratio of 18 to 1 for the number of new infections generated within the USA vs infections brought in from Europe. 11/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":93,"likes_count":236,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172829457108993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172746422481000,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038361000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:39:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There are many assumptions here (particularly the ratio of 5 to 1 active infections to confirmed cases), but the key result which should be fairly robust to these assumptions is the ratio of 1800 endemic infections vs 100 travel introductions from Europe. 10/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172746422480896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172645750784000,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038337000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:38:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If we expect the number of infections to double in 7 days, that means that our current rough estimate of 6500 cases will be 13,000 cases 7 days from now. This means that at the moment, there are 13000/7 = ~1800 new infections per day. 9/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172645750784001","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172312899207200,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038258000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:37:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The population of these countries is 260 million. This would give a current prevalence in these countries of 1 infection in 2600 people. 6/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172312899207168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238172145819119600,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038218000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:36:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm going to multiply confirmed cases by 5 to get an estimate of current prevalence. Note that this is approximately what we'd expect from WA state right now with 338 reported cases and 1000 to 2000 active infections. 4/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238172145819119616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238171769459990500,"conversation_id":"1238171677046894593","created_at":1584038128000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"18:35:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm only attempting to do a broad comparison of the number of new infections introduced from Europe daily to the number of new infections generated endemically by the growing US outbreak. 2/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":112,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238171769459990528","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237969296279494700,"conversation_id":"1237969188909531136","created_at":1583989855000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"05:10:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As viruses from elsewhere in the US get sequenced, we'll learn about how connected these outbreaks are. 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":51,"likes_count":432,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237969296279494659","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237396521991061500,"conversation_id":"1237394739143438338","created_at":1583853295000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"15:14:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We will be watching for increases in positivity over time as a signal for increasing community spread as well as analyzing prevalence across geography and across age groups and hope to report on this soon. 10/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":178,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237396521991061505","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237396070746869800,"conversation_id":"1237394739143438338","created_at":1583853187000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"15:13:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The main result here is that roughly 1% of people presenting with acute respiratory infections were testing positive for #COVID19 between Feb 20 and Mar 3. The red box is calling out lack of data for the most recent few days. 7/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":225,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1237396070746869761","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236801355181748200,"conversation_id":"1236799358718185472","created_at":1583711396000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"23:49:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The exact circumstances of this possible transmission from WA to CA cannot be known from the genetic data alone. But the occurrence of spread from WA to CA is another indicator of the size of the WA outbreak. 8/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":87,"likes_count":347,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236801355181748224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236799358718185500,"conversation_id":"1236799358718185472","created_at":1583710920000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"23:42:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"One of the most powerful aspects of genomic data for #COVID19 is the ability to make connections between seemingly disparate outbreaks. This is a thread describing one such possible connection. Please keep in mind this is only a hypothesis and not proven fact. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":654,"likes_count":1786,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236799358718185472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236749090085425200,"conversation_id":"1236748529462177792","created_at":1583698935000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"20:22:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Please don't take my word as gospel. I'm not an expert on this virus (I don't think anyone can call themselves one at this point; it's too new). I'm doing my best here. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":101,"retweets_count":64,"likes_count":1297,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236749090085425152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236749002445447200,"conversation_id":"1236748529462177792","created_at":1583698914000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"20:21:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm trying to get important results broadcast widely as time is of the essence, but there will be a necessary accuracy trade-off compared to traditional scientific discourse. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":436,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236749002445447168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236748816570695700,"conversation_id":"1236748529462177792","created_at":1583698870000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"20:21:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My initial dialog with scientists has spiraled somewhat out of control and I now find myself with ~100k followers and rather than a dialog it's become more about reporting / outreach. This is intimidating but I'll do my best to with it. 3/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":644,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236748816570695681","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236119019100311600,"conversation_id":"1236117809609838592","created_at":1583548714000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"02:38:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"In summary, I don't think the strong conclusions of the manuscript are warranted. We will monitor these two genetic variants, but I see no reason to conclude they have important functional significance at this point. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":94,"likes_count":691,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236119019100311552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236118381247336400,"conversation_id":"1236117809609838592","created_at":1583548562000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"02:36:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Generally, the expectation among virologists is that a random single amino acid change will have little impact on virus behavior. My \"null\" model would be that this mutation just happened to occur on an early branch on the tree and any \"impact\" is due solely to epidemiology. 4/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":200,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236118381247336448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236117963712770000,"conversation_id":"1236117809609838592","created_at":1583548463000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"02:34:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We've recorded 145 different single amino acid mutations among sequenced viruses in the #COVID19 pandemic. This manuscript focuses on a particular change from leucine (\"L\") to serine (\"S\") at site 84 in the ORF-8 gene of #SARSCoV2. 2/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":48,"likes_count":187,"hashtags":["#covid19","#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236117963712770050","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236097404039909400,"conversation_id":"1236096904678633472","created_at":1583543561000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"01:12:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Using forward simulation, with a doubling time of 6.2 (5.1, 8.2) days, we estimate the prevalence of active infections on Mar 5 is 620 (90% uncertainty interval 120, 1600). 4/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":175,"likes_count":595,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097404039909376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236097284086968300,"conversation_id":"1236096904678633472","created_at":1583543532000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"01:12:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Many of them are surely related to this cluster and some may be recent traveller importations. But some may also represent other clusters not yet confirmed. The model below describes our best estimates for only the confirmed cluster. 3/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":407,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097284086968321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236097151723163600,"conversation_id":"1236096904678633472","created_at":1583543501000,"date":"2020-03-07","time":"01:11:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As of today, in addition to the one traveller case, there are ~60 more cases in King and Snohomish counties from which we don't yet know the sequences. 2/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":111,"likes_count":484,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236097151723163649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235433402045583400,"conversation_id":"1235432204060131329","created_at":1583385250000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"05:14:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This is good news! (In a terrible situation) We only know of the one transmission chain and we think this contains ~600 (but perhaps up to 1500) infections today. Our numbers among cases with known genetic origins are not up from where they were on Monday. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":101,"likes_count":331,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235433402045583360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235432647582568400,"conversation_id":"1235432204060131329","created_at":1583385071000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"05:11:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This directly suggests that the transmission chain initiated in mid-Jan by case WA1 in Snohomish is responsible for at least a portion of the cases appearing in Seattle. 3/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":56,"likes_count":199,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235432647582568449","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235388811061776400,"conversation_id":"1235382556863811584","created_at":1583374619000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"02:16:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm aiming for transparency in my thought process more than 100% correctness and I'll try keep up with the updates. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":363,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235388811061776385","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235388603355631600,"conversation_id":"1235382556863811584","created_at":1583374570000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"02:16:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"You're seeing how science works. Individuals put out hypotheses and others critique them. This is how we collectively move closer to an accurate understanding of the world. This is effectively peer review over Twitter and I think marvelous. 3/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":64,"likes_count":499,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235388603355631616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235106301669068800,"conversation_id":"1235104921260675072","created_at":1583307264000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"07:34:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"An extremely important take home message here is that just because a cluster has been identified and \"contained\" doesn't actually mean this case did not seed a transmission chain that went undetected until it grew to be sizable outbreak. 7/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":279,"likes_count":910,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235106301669068800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234679352542941200,"conversation_id":"1234670371640467457","created_at":1583205471000,"date":"2020-03-03","time":"03:17:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Yes. Mutations accumulate based on time elapsed rather than transmission steps.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":124,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234679352542941184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234590005734981600,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583184169000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:22:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Please consider this to be a preliminary analysis. We are actively working on this and will continue to update our numbers. 10/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":296,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234590005734981632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234589933618126800,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583184152000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:22:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We believe this particular transmission chain will have a foci in Snohomish County. We're working as fast as possible to understand extent of spread in the greater Seattle area. 9/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":65,"likes_count":293,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589933618126848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234589820946534400,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583184125000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:22:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections. 8/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":76,"likes_count":269,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234589729951080400,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583184103000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:21:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"In addition to this \"bottom-up\" approach, Mike used a \"top-down\" approach in which we accounted for the single positive screening result out of the number of samples screened to date along with census information. 7/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":182,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589729951080449","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234589179222167600,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583183972000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:19:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Because the case definition from mid-Jan until Feb 27 required direct travel from China, any of these subsequent cases in the transmission chain would not have been tested for #SARSCoV2. 4/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":226,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589179222167552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234589074695917600,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583183947000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:19:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This suggests that the case WA1 infected someone who was missed by surveillance due to mild symptoms and a transmission chain was initiated at this point in mid-Jan. 3/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":85,"likes_count":281,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589074695917568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234588934023176200,"conversation_id":"1234588787641970689","created_at":1583183914000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:18:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As before, the genomic data support a linkage between the case WA1 from Jan 19 and the case WA2 from Feb 24, both from Snohomish County. 2/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":42,"likes_count":175,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234588934023176193","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234508253972689000,"conversation_id":"1234401547364122625","created_at":1583164678000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"15:57:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Reading these replies, I want to clarify one thing. The 7 day doubling is an estimate and has uncertainty around it. It will also be different in different populations with different contact patterns. Certain situations may have faster growth and others slower growth.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":194,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234508253972688897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234401948104740900,"conversation_id":"1234401547364122625","created_at":1583139333000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"08:55:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If US cases more than double in the next week it’s not because the virus is moving any faster. It’s just because we’ll finally be catching up to it. 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":199,"likes_count":493,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234401948104740866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234401826964824000,"conversation_id":"1234401547364122625","created_at":1583139304000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"08:55:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Because of the lack of national testing that had been going on, there is likely a backlog of cases to be detected. As this backlog gets cleared, case counts are going to rise quickly. But please remember that reported cases aren’t newly acquired infections. 3/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":172,"likes_count":400,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234401826964824064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234401687567093800,"conversation_id":"1234401547364122625","created_at":1583139271000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"08:54:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This means that 100 infections will grow to 200 infections after one week and to 400 infections after two weeks. After local transmission has started, “there’ll be twice as many infections in a week” is a good grounding to think about how things will behave in your area. 2/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":169,"likes_count":320,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234401687567093760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233221586750062600,"conversation_id":"1233221045022121985","created_at":1582857913000,"date":"2020-02-28","time":"02:45:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"To me, the placement of community case CA9 is consistent with either:\n1. travel introduction followed by community transmission\n2. escape from Travis AFB quarantine from Wuhan evacuees\nWithout genome directly from Travis AFB we can't distinguish between these possibilities. 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233221586750062592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232493964504096800,"conversation_id":"1232493344070045696","created_at":1582684434000,"date":"2020-02-26","time":"02:33:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Containment has failed (though it did buy us time) and we are facing a pandemic. However, if countries can enact effective non-pharmaceutical interventions, it appears that spread can be substantially mitigated. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":244,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1232493964504096768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232493525205303300,"conversation_id":"1232493344070045696","created_at":1582684329000,"date":"2020-02-26","time":"02:32:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I think we likely have 5-10X underreporting in China (due to normal issues of reporting with disease with spectrum of severity), but not 100X. This suggests that a substantial fraction of infections are indeed severe. 2/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":48,"likes_count":127,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1232493525205303296","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230953764439253000,"conversation_id":"1230953764439252992","created_at":1582317222000,"date":"2020-02-21","time":"20:33:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There are now localized #COVID19 outbreaks in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Iran. I would have every reason to suspect other seeding events have taken hold elsewhere, but that many surveillance systems haven't yet caught on. 1/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":77,"likes_count":166,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1230953764439252992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230635070219645000,"conversation_id":"1230634136102064128","created_at":1582241239000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"23:27:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Data point #1 (virus group) summary:\n- Zoonosis: consistent\n- Lab escape: unlikely\n8/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1230635070219644928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230634528294572000,"conversation_id":"1230634136102064128","created_at":1582241110000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"23:25:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'll go through each piece of data in turn, but my summary is that the data are fully consistent with a zoonotic origin, but is highly unlikely in the lab escape scenario (and vanishingly unlikely in the bioweapon scenario). 4/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1230634528294572033","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229920907944087600,"conversation_id":"1229900490172846080","created_at":1582070969000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"00:09:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Though note that disease burden will obviously depend strongly on how robust health systems are.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1229920907944087552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229799924360863700,"conversation_id":"1229799416309010432","created_at":1582042125000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"16:08:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"It seems possible that both research groups may have been working from the same animals seized in Guangdong. Thanks to open data sharing by both groups it's possible to connect these two stories. 3/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1229799924360863745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229529891109892000,"conversation_id":"1229529891109892096","created_at":1581977744000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"22:15:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"An attempt to clarify what's going on with multiple studies of pangolin-associated SARS-like viruses related to the #COVID19 epidemic 1/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1229529891109892096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229502111345365000,"conversation_id":"1229501579696279552","created_at":1581971121000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"20:25:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This suggests that pangolins may harbor a diversity of closely related viruses and additional sampling may reveal a direct intermediate. However, it's also possible that the animal intermediate is some other non-bat host. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1229502111345364993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229501579696279600,"conversation_id":"1229501579696279552","created_at":1581970994000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"20:23:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Whole genome data from SARS-like coronaviruses sampled from pangolins have been shared to GISAID by Tommy Lam, Wu-Chun Cao and colleagues at the Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology and the University of Hong Kong. 1/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":90,"likes_count":186,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1229501579696279552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1228783071517794300,"conversation_id":"1228782616016384000","created_at":1581799688000,"date":"2020-02-15","time":"20:48:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"To \"see\" the full transmission from Wuhan to Singapore to Contamines we need genomic data from each step. This further emphasizes the importance of sampling to genomic outbreak reconstruction. 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1228783071517794304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1227292681274937300,"conversation_id":"1227292681274937344","created_at":1581444351000,"date":"2020-02-11","time":"18:05:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Anyone have a stable reference for daily #nCoV2019 confirmed cases? I’m most interested in a breakout of\n1. Cases in Hubei\n2. Cases within China outside Hubei\n3. Cases outside China\nThank you! 🙏🏻","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":31,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1227292681274937344","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224208100590096400,"conversation_id":"1224207086013149184","created_at":1580708930000,"date":"2020-02-03","time":"05:48:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Looking at mutation distributions, it appears that the genetic differences in #nCoV2019 are consistent with differences expected to arise during natural evolution, as I would expect engineering to have a distorted AA to nuc ratio and to focus on changing a subset of genes 9/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":149,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1224208100590096384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224207554600792000,"conversation_id":"1224207086013149184","created_at":1580708800000,"date":"2020-02-03","time":"05:46:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The #nCoV2019 lineage has 79 amino acid changes and 554 nucleotide changes relative to this common ancestor, so that only 14.3% of changes result in differences in amino acid. 5/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1224207554600792064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224207431921590300,"conversation_id":"1224207086013149184","created_at":1580708771000,"date":"2020-02-03","time":"05:46:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These two viruses are separated by ~1100 nucleotide changes, consistent with 20-70 years of evolution between them (assuming an evolutionary rate of between 3x10^-4 and 1x10^-3 subs per site per year). This suggests a common ancestor in bats between 1950 and 2000. 4/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1224207431921590272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224207086013149200,"conversation_id":"1224207086013149184","created_at":1580708688000,"date":"2020-02-03","time":"05:44:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I thought to examine signal of natural evolution in #nCoV2019 by looking at distribution of mutations in the lineage leading to nCoV and compare this distribution to mutations occurring in other SARS-like bat viruses 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":181,"likes_count":377,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1224207086013149184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1223667527676383200,"conversation_id":"1223666856923291648","created_at":1580580047000,"date":"2020-02-01","time":"18:00:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Here, I include additional SARS-like viruses in an alignment of spike protein to show that these \"inserts\" are nothing of the sort proposed by the paper and instead arose naturally in the ancestral bat virus 4/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":42,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223667527676383233","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1223666856923291600,"conversation_id":"1223666856923291648","created_at":1580579887000,"date":"2020-02-01","time":"17:58:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Based on the content of my mentions, I feel like I need to further debunk crazy #nCoV2019 / HIV conspiracy preprint. This is a thread doing so. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":66,"retweets_count":820,"likes_count":1438,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223666856923291648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1223387421120684000,"conversation_id":"1223337991168380928","created_at":1580513265000,"date":"2020-01-31","time":"23:27:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, these observed insertions in spike protein are completely consistent with naturally occurring evolution in these viruses in bats. Spike has lots of evolutionary pressure and it mutates single bases as well as gains and loses sections across related bat viruses. 1/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":86,"likes_count":268,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223387421120684032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1223043095593275400,"conversation_id":"1223043095593275392","created_at":1580431171000,"date":"2020-01-31","time":"00:39:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I did some math surrounding the number of mutations between two #nCoV2019 genomes and the distribution of the number of transmission steps that separate them. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":63,"likes_count":100,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1223043095593275392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1222051860686655500,"conversation_id":"1222051731602735104","created_at":1580194842000,"date":"2020-01-28","time":"07:00:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This strain and the #nCoV2019 outbreak clade are separated from their common ancestor by ~0.02 substitutions per site. Assuming a coronavirus evolutionary rate of between 3 and 8 x 10^-4 subs per site per year, we estimate roughly 25 to 65 years from a common ancestor. 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1222051860686655488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221836354037805000,"conversation_id":"1221836354037805058","created_at":1580143462000,"date":"2020-01-27","time":"16:44:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Can someone point me to a line list of #nCoV2019 international travel cases?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1221836354037805058","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221236977774682000,"conversation_id":"1221236738938433536","created_at":1580000559000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"01:02:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm used to this classic split for why MERS-CoV and avian influenza don't transmit well in humans; they tend to be lower respiratory, and hence severe 3/3","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1221236977774682113","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221236738938433500,"conversation_id":"1221236738938433536","created_at":1580000502000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"01:01:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A question for the clinicians / virologists. Would it make sense for #nCoV2019 to be split with:\n1. Some fraction of lower respiratory tract infections that are severe and don't transmit well\n2. Some fraction of upper respiratory infections that are mild and do transmit well? 1/3","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":["#ncov2019"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1221236738938433536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1220134623625142300,"conversation_id":"1220134146640449537","created_at":1579737737000,"date":"2020-01-23","time":"00:02:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These are remarked in GISAID as being part of a \"family transmission cluster\". This does not speak to extent of human-to-human transmission, but is unmistakable evidence that it does occur.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1220134623625142272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1218981271033892900,"conversation_id":"1218980671885996032","created_at":1579462757000,"date":"2020-01-19","time":"19:39:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"... at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China and at the Department of Medical Sciences, National Institute of Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand via GISAID. We gratefully acknowledgement their contributions. 6/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1218981271033892864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1218981210942083000,"conversation_id":"1218980671885996032","created_at":1579462742000,"date":"2020-01-19","time":"19:39:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"nCoV genomes were generously shared by scientists at the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, at the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, China, ... 5/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1218981210942083073","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1218981094344642600,"conversation_id":"1218980671885996032","created_at":1579462715000,"date":"2020-01-19","time":"19:38:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This suggests the reservoir from which cases are being exposed has little genetic diversity and so may be a recent epizootic in the city. 4/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1218981094344642560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
