{"id":1255976675252158500,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588283148000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:45:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I know all the discussion is about a possible \"2nd wave\", but I've found this odd given that we haven't finished the first one. I would think quite possible that, nationally, we're in for a scenario of a long plateau. 1/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":281,"retweets_count":3559,"likes_count":12518,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976675252158465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254585908096987100,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587951564000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"01:39:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I messed up on my math in tweet #6. It should be 20M * 0.5% = 100k deaths averted. Sorry about that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":476,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254585908096987138","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254575454754762800,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587949071000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"00:57:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Key metrics for evaluation will be number of cases that have contacts traced as well as the time between symptom onset in the index case and alerting of exposed contacts. 9/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":72,"likes_count":447,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254575454754762753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254575452485677000,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587949071000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"00:57:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"So, saving $30B in medical costs and 200k lives would require infrastructure to trace 15M cases and provide support for isolation and quarantine to their contacts. 7/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":89,"likes_count":501,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254575452485677059","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254575451629949000,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587949071000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"00:57:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If we assume a fairly conservative IFR of 0.5%, then 20M infections averted translates into 200k deaths averted (in addition to other health and societal benefits from a less intense epidemic). 6/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":74,"likes_count":436,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254575451629948930","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254575449553825800,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587949070000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"00:57:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Just doing #TestTraceIsolate (badly) has reduced the number of total infections by 20M. If we assume (very roughly) that 50% of infections are symptomatic, we've reduced symptomatic infections by 10M. 4/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":94,"likes_count":497,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254575449553825792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254575445229441000,"conversation_id":"1254575445229441024","created_at":1587949069000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"00:57:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given my statement that the US has 300k - 600k new infections per day, I've had a bunch of responses telling me that #TestTraceIsolate is futile and we should give up on it. This thread demonstrates the benefits of reducing transmission even if suppression is not attainable. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":120,"retweets_count":1581,"likes_count":3489,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1254575445229441024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253880790103978000,"conversation_id":"1253880780830326786","created_at":1587783450000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"02:57:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"For #TestTraceIsolate to have a large impact on reducing transmission, this strategy requires testing to be readily available for mild cases that would not other seek clinical care. We need innovative strategies to make this possible. 9/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":39,"retweets_count":135,"likes_count":599,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253880790103977984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253880783275618300,"conversation_id":"1253880780830326786","created_at":1587783449000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"02:57:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"In order to have this necessary testing scale up, we need to improve both logistics around specimen collection as well as throughput of specimen screening. 4/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":301,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253880783275618309","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253880782503829500,"conversation_id":"1253880780830326786","created_at":1587783449000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"02:57:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This would translate to between 300k and 600k new infections per day. This means roughly 2 to 4 times as many new infections per day as there are tests being conducted. This heavily limits case-based interventions where identifying confirmed cases is a prerequisite. 3/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":125,"likes_count":439,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253880782503829504","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253880780830326800,"conversation_id":"1253880780830326786","created_at":1587783448000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"02:57:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If we're going to manage a #TestTraceIsolate solution to the #COVID19 epidemic, we need a massive scale up in testing. There are some really exciting initiatives here. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":62,"retweets_count":937,"likes_count":2449,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253880780830326786","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253449212840173600,"conversation_id":"1253436656742305793","created_at":1587680554000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"22:22:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, these are numbers for NYC. Demographics and health system will affect IFR (can easily be 0.5% in other settings). Density / behavior will affect R0 (can easily be R0 of 2 / 50% attack rate). In these other settings, we then are \"just\" 25X worse than a flu season.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":77,"likes_count":298,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253449212840173571","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253398332401057800,"conversation_id":"1253398325245603840","created_at":1587668424000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:00:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Keep in mind that this infection-to-fatality ratio is heavily dependent on population demographics as well as health system capacity. IFR of ~1% (or more) in NYC may differ from IFR in other locations. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":81,"likes_count":451,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398332401057793","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253398331629297700,"conversation_id":"1253398325245603840","created_at":1587668423000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:00:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This estimate deserves better statistics as there are active infections among the 1.7M that will resolve to deaths in the coming weeks (increasing the numerator) and the true seroprevalence may be greater today than when the study was conducted (increasing the denominator). 5/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":58,"likes_count":337,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398331629297664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038562569674800,"conversation_id":"1253038550834020352","created_at":1587582648000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My best guess is that the epidemic in Santa Clara didn't take off for stochastic reasons, despite virus being around in Jan / Feb, but it's also possible the epidemic was less detected in Santa Clara than elsewhere. 8/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":53,"retweets_count":105,"likes_count":763,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253038562569674752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038561714073600,"conversation_id":"1253038550834020352","created_at":1587582648000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The puzzling aspect is the observation that if there was community transmission in Santa Clara in late Jan / early Feb, why didn't we see a similarly early epidemic in Santa Clara as we saw in King County? 7/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":110,"likes_count":754,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253038561714073601","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038560837374000,"conversation_id":"1253038550834020352","created_at":1587582647000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The report of a death in Santa Clara on Feb 6 does not effect my overall timeline of first introductions occurring in the US in Jan 2020 into locations with strong travel connections to China. This death is likely part of one of these early transmission chains. 6/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":122,"likes_count":585,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253038560837373952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038550834020400,"conversation_id":"1253038550834020352","created_at":1587582645000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I wanted to respond to news of #COVID19 death in Santa Clara County on Feb 6. This is an interesting, if slightly puzzling, data point. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":85,"retweets_count":872,"likes_count":2134,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253038550834020352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251332453630791700,"conversation_id":"1251332447691628545","created_at":1587175880000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"02:11:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given how sensitive these results are to performance of the assay, I don't think it's safe to conclude that infections are \"50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases\". 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":84,"likes_count":357,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251332453630791680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251332452947071000,"conversation_id":"1251332447691628545","created_at":1587175880000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"02:11:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I've ignored demographic weighting here as it doesn't play into this calculation. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":108,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251332452947070977","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251332449910395000,"conversation_id":"1251332447691628545","created_at":1587175879000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"02:11:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'd pay particular attention to the dependence of results on test performance. The authors assume that the antibody test has 99.5% specificity (point estimate) based on manufacturer + Stanford validation samples where 399 out of 401 pre-COVID samples showed as negative. 3/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":186,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251332449910394880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251306557763027000,"conversation_id":"1251305186745708544","created_at":1587169706000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:28:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"(I recognize this result is seemingly at odds with seroprevalence result from Santa Clara. Trying to think through this now.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251306557763026944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251305196379967500,"conversation_id":"1251305186745708544","created_at":1587169381000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:23:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Results from an infectious disease surveillance platform like SCAN can provide situational awareness regarding disease spread as social distancing begins to relax, so that we're not caught unaware by spread within the community. 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251305196379967488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251305189614555100,"conversation_id":"1251305186745708544","created_at":1587169379000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:22:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I believe this \"swab-and-send\" strategy could be leveraged to scale up testing in other locations to avoid an individual having to present to clinical care in order to get a test done (in addition to other clever approaches like drive-through testing). 3/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":124,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1251305189614555136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855525069189000,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062171000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Going forward, we should be empowering local and state public health to do their job with contact tracing, while simultaneously thinking about how new technologies can be brought to bear. 11/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":87,"likes_count":403,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855525069189120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855522745475000,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062171000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Challenges here lie in getting someone with symptoms immediately tested as well as getting contacts rapidly alerted. However, the basic strategy of #TestTraceIsolate as routinely conducted by public health has demonstrated efficacy. 9/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":94,"likes_count":370,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855522745475072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855520388317200,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062170000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"In order for #TestTraceIsolate to be truly effective, Bob needs to be alerted by day 7 to quarantine. This is a tight timeline. It requires that Alice get tested on day 5 when she develops symptoms and rapid turnover of lab assay and alerting. 7/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":119,"likes_count":427,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855520388317184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855517376794600,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062169000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Identifying and isolating presymptomatic individuals is key to limiting transmission in a #TestTraceIsolate intervention. And for this to happen, everything needs to move very quickly from the alerting of a confirmed case to the quarantine their contacts. 5/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":178,"likes_count":518,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855517376794624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855516516921300,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062169000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If someone is infected, but not yet symptomatic, there's no way for them to know that they may be contagious and so they won't know to take appropriate quarantine measures. 4/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":123,"likes_count":455,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855516516921345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250855512226164700,"conversation_id":"1250855512226164736","created_at":1587062168000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"18:36:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I wanted to give a basic picture of why #TestTraceIsolate is so important to the control of the #COVID19 epidemic and why we need to move quickly when testing and contact tracing in order to create an effective intervention. 1/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":77,"retweets_count":1812,"likes_count":2995,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1250855512226164736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414309379051500,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718559000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This would give 5-10 million infections in the US or about 2-3% cumulative prevalence. This is a long way from the 50% (R0 of 2) to 66% (R0 of 3) we'd need for herd immunity. 15/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":51,"retweets_count":334,"likes_count":1211,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414309379051521","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414305868435500,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718558000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There were multiple paths the virus took to reach the US. There was a direct introduction from China that occurred in late Jan and there were multiple introductions from the European epidemic that occurred during the course of Feb. 12/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":282,"likes_count":1063,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414305868435456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414303075033000,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718557000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We can use the number of genetic changes observed in a viral lineage to estimate the date of its common ancestor. 10/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":106,"likes_count":725,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414303075033088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414299333742600,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718556000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"It's empirically true that the Seattle flu season in Oct through Jan was not the result of COVID-19. We would have seen it in these data. Given travel connections between WA and CA there is no way that COVID-19 was widely circulating in CA, but we see zero cases in WA. 8/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":264,"likes_count":1352,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414299333742592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414298444501000,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718556000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As you may know, seasonal coronaviruses are responsible for ~30% of common colds and are easily distinguished from #SARSCoV2 (the virus responsible for COVID-19) in molecular assays. There is no chance of confusion between these in our assay. 7/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":198,"likes_count":1238,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414298444500992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414294157971500,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718555000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"All samples were from individuals suffering acute respiratory infection with a subset having influenza-like illness. Individuals with undiagnosed COVID-19 should be picked up with these symptom criteria. 4/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":130,"likes_count":841,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414294157971456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249414291297464300,"conversation_id":"1249414291297464321","created_at":1586718554000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"19:09:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There is a lot of Twitter chatter surrounding a rumor that circulation of #COVID19 in California in fall 2019 has resulted in herd immunity. This is empirically not the case. COVID-19 was first introduced into the USA in Jan/Feb 2020. 1/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":357,"retweets_count":5371,"likes_count":11764,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414291297464321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248096612619931600,"conversation_id":"1248096610887675904","created_at":1586404395000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:53:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Modeling analyses can estimate changes in transmission over time based on case counts. Here we look at estimates of the \"effective reproductive number\" Re (the number of secondary infections caused by a primary infection) over time in different locations. 2/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":74,"likes_count":507,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1248096612619931649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248096610887676000,"conversation_id":"1248096610887675904","created_at":1586404395000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:53:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"In many ways, this should be entirely obvious, but we now have strong evidence that social distancing results in decreased #COVID19 transmission rates. 1/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":93,"retweets_count":1662,"likes_count":4440,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1248096610887675904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609746074390500,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288317000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The arrival of seroprevalence estimates should help to dial in a lot of our numbers. By learning total number of infections we can better estimate population-level severity. Hopefully data from these studies will start to emerge soon. 9/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":83,"likes_count":457,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609746074390528","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609745269112800,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288317000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These numbers fall well short of \"herd-immunity\", which would require between 50% (for R0 of 2) and 66% (for R0 of 3) of the population recovered to prevent epidemic spread. 8/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":118,"likes_count":430,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609745269112832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609741901103000,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288316000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, at this point, I'm not aware of any seroprevalence results and so we're left modeling total number of infections based on confirmed cases and deaths (perhaps supplemented by viral genetics). 6/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":264,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609741901103104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609741083177000,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288316000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Seroprevalence estimates will help to understand the total number of infections and should be more comparable across regions, as a cross-sectional serological survey should be closer to a random sample as opposed to testing which has varied in capacity. 5/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":281,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609741083176960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609735995506700,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288315000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The gold-standard approach here is to conduct serological surveys of the population. These serological assays measure the presence of antibodies in people's blood that can bind to the virus. These responses persist for months rather than ~2-3 weeks for viral shedding. 2/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":370,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609735995506690","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247609734896607200,"conversation_id":"1247609734896607232","created_at":1586288314000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"19:38:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"How can we assess the total number of #SARSCoV2 infections that have occurred up to this point? As others have noted, it's not easy to extrapolate from confirmed cases to total infections. Some thoughts here, but no real answers. 1/9","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":38,"retweets_count":590,"likes_count":1292,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1247609734896607232","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240663156777000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723484000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Time to get to work! 🚀 20/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":58,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":320,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240663156776968","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240658626936800,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723483000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Variable levels of immunity, population densities, and age structures will create subtly different environments for transmission. Therefore, in addition to individual-level interventions, we will use this platform to help inform containment policies at the community level. 16/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240658626936832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240657762910200,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723482000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Guide: Beyond simply developing a system that can monitor individual-level interactions and exposure events, understanding high resolution transmission patterns on a broad scale would allow us to characterize the heterogeneity of the epidemic in different areas. 15/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":152,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240657762910208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240656923988000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723482000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This system would use cell phone location and proximity data to detect possible exposure events while ensuring that privacy is preserved and data is secure. This obviously needs a great deal of attention to get right. 14/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":222,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240656923987968","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240656093560800,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723482000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The app / online platform would essentially conduct a coarse version of what epidemiologists do with interviews; it would build a contact history for the registered case, listing out contact events with other individuals that could potentially have resulted in transmission. 13/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":168,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240656093560835","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240655242072000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723482000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Trace: We propose a system in which, if an individual is confirmed to have COVID-19, they can register their case in an online platform. If they register, the platform will warn other individuals who were possibly exposed to this infection that they should seek testing. 12/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":219,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240655242072065","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240654382297000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723482000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, relying on hierarchical reporting is fragile and may not result in timely distribution of results. We propose moving to a decentralized reporting system in which any lab performing diagnostic testing can broadcast test results in an anonymized fashion. 11/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":184,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240654382297088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240653581185000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723481000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Test: We will need to massively increase our testing capacity. This scale-up is now being tackled by a combination of state public health labs, hospital testing, and commercial laboratories. 10/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":197,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240653581185024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240652763238400,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723481000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I believe, and others have proposed as well, that *digital participatory contact tracing* has the potential to substantially reduce transmission while avoiding the societal costs imposed by social distancing interventions. This will require: 9/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":226,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240652763238405","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240651903406000,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723481000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Because of this, contact tracing is typically only conducted in the early “containment” phase of an epidemic when there are few enough cases that public health staff can keep up. 8/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":144,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240651903406092","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240651005841400,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723481000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, traditional approaches to contact tracing do not scale; they rely on a huge investment in time and labor in which public health staff conduct exhaustive phone interviews to assess symptoms and exposure history among the network of persons under investigation. 7/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":152,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240651005841410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240650116657200,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723481000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Contact tracing targets surveillance resources and testing at individuals most likely to be positive, and also serves to test individuals early in the course of illness when isolation is most effective at reducing onward transmission. 6/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":133,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240650116657152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240649252614100,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723480000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Contact tracing is a targeted intervention proven to reduce transmission and curb an infectious disease outbreak. By identifying possible exposures of an index case, the exposed individuals can be tested and isolated in the event that they are also infected. 5/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":167,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240649252614145","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240648359243800,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723480000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Unfortunately, broad-scale social distancing is a blunt intervention with massive societal and economic costs. If we can move toward interventions targeted at infected and exposed individuals we can achieve the same outcomes with less societal hardship. 4/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":233,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240648359243777","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240647419744300,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723480000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Current broad-scale social distancing interventions aim to bring this number down by decreasing the number of contacts between people across the population. If people do not encounter each other, they cannot spread infection, regardless of whether they are infected or not. 3/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":163,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240647419744258","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245240646526361600,"conversation_id":"1245240645003833345","created_at":1585723480000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"06:44:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The #COVID19 epidemic is occurring because each infection results in 2 to 3 further infections. This process creates the exponential growth we have seen across countries, states, and cities. Any successful intervention must reduce this number of secondary transmissions. 2/20","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":185,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1245240646526361606","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750398746837000,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606596000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, this could be studied via cross-neutralization assays to see if sera from recovered individuals respond differently to these two variants. These assays are routinely used in influenza vaccine strain selection for exactly this purpose. 13/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":85,"likes_count":560,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750398746836994","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750397664669700,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606595000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My expectations from influenza, norovirus and other antigenically variable viruses is that a single mutation outside the receptor binding site is unlikely to have much of an effect on immunity. 12/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":104,"likes_count":482,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750397664669696","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750391998156800,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606594000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"What's very tricky is that we can't know without doing experiments if one genetic variant behaves differently than another, especially when there's only a small handful of genetic changes between them. 8/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":290,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750391998156800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750391004168200,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606594000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This brings us to the other overloaded definition of strain: a functionally distinct virus genotype. 7/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":243,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750391004168192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750387552256000,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606593000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, because there are so many parallel transmission chains sparked from the initial outbreak in Wuhan the different mutations that we've observed are all slight variations to this original Wuhan virus. 5/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":252,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750387552256000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244750386327478300,"conversation_id":"1244750382338719745","created_at":1585606593000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"22:16:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Ie roughly every other virus sequenced reveals a slightly different genome. This is due to constant barrage of mutations that occur in an RNA virus due to error-prone replication. Along a transmission chain, we expect a new mutation every ~2 weeks. 4/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":53,"likes_count":299,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1244750386327478272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243754944261320700,"conversation_id":"1243754919623974915","created_at":1585369261000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"04:21:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm hopeful that further regional sequencing will help estimate absolute prevalence and help quantify the degree to which social distancing efforts are slowing transmission. 13/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":91,"likes_count":701,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1243754944261320710","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243754943317553200,"conversation_id":"1243754919623974915","created_at":1585369260000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"04:21:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Generally, we see large regional transmission chains when there was an introduction that got successfully underway in late Jan or early Feb and much more mixed transmission of recent introductions from the growing pandemic. 12/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":388,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1243754943317553152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243754937059664000,"conversation_id":"1243754919623974915","created_at":1585369259000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"04:20:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As you might expect, viruses from the UK show close genetic relationships to viruses from elsewhere in Europe indicating frequent mixing between the two regions. 9/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":71,"likes_count":370,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1243754937059663872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243754925890220000,"conversation_id":"1243754919623974915","created_at":1585369256000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"04:20:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Here I focus on a few different well sampled and well sequenced geographies, where we can compare and contrast epidemics. 4/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":278,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1243754925890220032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628564324761600,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100711000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"So, my prediction is that we should see occasional mutations to the spike protein of #SARSCoV2 that allow the virus to partially escape from vaccines or existing \"herd\" immunity, but that this process will most likely take years rather than months. 12/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":121,"retweets_count":528,"likes_count":1829,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628564324761606","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628559950106600,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100710000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If I had to guess, I would predict that #SARSCoV2 will behave similarly to existing seasonal coronaviruses in its ability to mutate to avoid vaccines and immunity. 9/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":149,"likes_count":654,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628559950106625","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628555030155300,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100709000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"For influenza, the major driver of evolution is immunity. Mutations will occasionally appear that cause people's existing immunity to no longer protect as well against a newly emerged mutant virus. 6/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":88,"likes_count":517,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628555030155264","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628554237431800,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100708000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Almost all of these mutations will have little to no effect on virus function. Evolution weeds out the mutations that \"break\" the virus and mutations that make a virus replicate better are extremely rare. 5/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":91,"likes_count":563,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628554237431808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628553419579400,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100708000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If you follow a transmission chain in which one person with flu infects another person and they infect another person and so on, you'll find that the virus mutates about once every 10 days across its genome. 4/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":97,"likes_count":590,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628553419579392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628552475857000,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100708000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"RNA viruses such as influenza mutate very rapidly. The molecular machinery they use to replicate in the body is highly error prone. 3/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":89,"likes_count":566,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628552475856898","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628551557316600,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100708000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm writing this thread because I have a bunch of mentions talking about 100s of \"strains\" and no ability to vaccinate against them. I want to clarify scientific usage of strain vs mutation. 2/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":156,"likes_count":772,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628551557316608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242628550563250200,"conversation_id":"1242628550563250176","created_at":1585100708000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A thread on #SARSCoV2 mutations and what they might mean for the #COVID19 vaccination and immunity, in which I predict it will take the virus a few years to mutate enough to significantly hinder a vaccine. 1/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":122,"retweets_count":3017,"likes_count":5915,"hashtags":["#sarscov2","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628550563250176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444843714678800,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580071000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Together, I believe these (and other case-based) strategies can bring down the epidemic. This is the Apollo program of our times. Let's get to it. 19/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":211,"retweets_count":901,"likes_count":4867,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444843714678785","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444842829688800,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580071000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Individuals who have serological evidence of recovery and are no longer shedding virus can fully return to the workforce and keep society functioning (especially important for those at the clinical front lines). 18/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":53,"retweets_count":539,"likes_count":2856,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444842829688832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444841986674700,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580071000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A third, supporting, strategy: as the epidemic proceeds get serological assays run on as many people as possible to systematically identify individuals who have recovered and are highly likely to possess immunity. 17/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":380,"likes_count":1888,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444841986674689","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444838564094000,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580070000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This rollout of testing could be achieved through at home delivery of swabs with centralized lab-based processing combined with drive-through testing facilities. There are logistics involved in getting a result quickly, but it's really just logistics, which can be solved. 14/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":493,"likes_count":2108,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444838564093952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444836156588000,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580069000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These transmission routes can be reduced by a huge rollout of testing capacity. If someone can be tested early in their illness before they show symptoms, they could effectively self isolate and reduce onward transmission compared to isolation when symptoms develop. 12/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":497,"likes_count":2003,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444836156588033","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444832679526400,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580069000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There are two main case-based strategies that I see here, both related, as well as a supporting serological strategy. 9/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":111,"likes_count":754,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444832679526401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444831605747700,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580068000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, I'm not quite that pessimistic. Although I agree that basic mitigation efforts won't stop the epidemic, I have hope that we can solve this thing by doing traditional shoe leather epidemiology of case finding and isolation, but at scale, using modern technology. 8/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":420,"likes_count":1948,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444831605747712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444830615924700,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580068000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This is the catch-22 as presented by the report. 7/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":100,"likes_count":849,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444830615924738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444828917182500,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580068000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Managing this level of social distancing required for suppression while still having a functional economy and society would be difficult and it's not at all clear that this could be maintained for the ~18 months until we have a vaccine. 6/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":261,"likes_count":1320,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444828917182465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240444825582747600,"conversation_id":"1240444821593944064","created_at":1584580067000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:07:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given assumed severity of COVID-19 infections, this flattened epidemic is still severe, resulting in over 1 million deaths in the US and >250k deaths in GB, mostly concentrated in those over 60 and with underlying health conditions. 4/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":184,"likes_count":817,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444825582747648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239427204171194400,"conversation_id":"1239427193945485312","created_at":1584337447000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"05:44:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I don't know exactly how to square the finding of a large community cluster in Washington State with these 4 apparently recently introduced viruses in other states. My strong suspicion is that more sequencing will reveal growing community clusters elsewhere in the US as well. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":62,"retweets_count":314,"likes_count":1389,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1239427204171194368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239427203361681400,"conversation_id":"1239427193945485312","created_at":1584337447000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"05:44:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"San Diego County has a virus that appears to be a recent introduction from Europe, and besides the two Grand Princess-associated cases, the remaining genome from Minnesota also appears to be a recent European import clustering closely with viruses sampled in the Netherlands. 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":288,"likes_count":777,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1239427203361681410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239427200790618000,"conversation_id":"1239427193945485312","created_at":1584337446000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"05:44:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, for WA state new introductions from outside the US appear to be driving many fewer new infections than local transmission. 5/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":267,"likes_count":977,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1239427200790618112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239427193945485300,"conversation_id":"1239427193945485312","created_at":1584337445000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"05:44:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A small update on genomic epidemiology of the #COVID19  epidemic in Washington State (where we have lots of data) and elsewhere in the US (where data is sparse). 1/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":85,"retweets_count":1617,"likes_count":3493,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1239427193945485312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643295300898800,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150549000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Sequencing #SARSCoV2 / #HCoV19 viruses from across the US will help to determine the relative number and size of these different transmission clusters. 13/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":105,"retweets_count":175,"likes_count":1299,"hashtags":["#sarscov2","#hcov19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643295300898818","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643293996580900,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150548000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Again, there are a bunch of assumptions here, and the main point is not the ~20k number, but instead that what we're seeing now are not new introductions, but small outbreaks that have been growing locally over the past ~8 weeks and now getting big enough to be noticed. 12/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":330,"likes_count":1397,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643293996580864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643293103075300,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150548000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I could easily be off 2-fold in either direction, but my best guess is that we're currently in the 10,000 to 40,000 range nationally. 11/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":58,"retweets_count":663,"likes_count":1876,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643293103075329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643291358298000,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150548000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, a rough guess would be a ~20 sparks that caught between Jan 15 and Feb 15 and have resulted in growing outbreaks, each of which on average will be around ~1000 infections, some bigger than others. This would be an extremely rough ~20k infections in the USA. 9/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":237,"likes_count":899,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643291358298118","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643290540408800,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150548000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Many of these ~45 cases that arrived will have fizzled without causing downstream transmission, but still a number of these likely caught hold. 8/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":96,"likes_count":616,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643290540408833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643289613455400,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150547000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given that the US detected 15 cases from Jan 15 to Feb 15, we might very roughly expect 45 other mild cases that arrived and were not picked up by surveillance. 7/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":169,"likes_count":811,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643289613455361","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238643287818244000,"conversation_id":"1238643280679563265","created_at":1584150547000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"01:49:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The seeming sudden appearance of outbreaks across the US are not due to a sudden influx of cases. Instead, transmission chains have been percolating for 4-8 weeks now and we're just now starting to see exponential growth pick up steam. 5/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":829,"likes_count":2346,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1238643287818244098","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
