{"id":1217886466061348900,"conversation_id":"1217883924908691456","created_at":1579201735000,"date":"2020-01-16","time":"19:08:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":86970530,"username":"tmprowell","name":"Tatiana Prowell, MD","place":"","tweet":"That. Not grades, not test scores, not the rsrch I was doing, & not who my mentors were. There are more than enough students w/ great records (better than mine, tbh) to fill every med school. This guy wanted someone who valued people-ALL of them-& viewed science as a team sport.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1217886466061348864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"86970530","username":"tmprowell"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1215428735991722000,"conversation_id":"1215428735991721984","created_at":1578615766000,"date":"2020-01-10","time":"00:22:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":86970530,"username":"tmprowell","name":"Tatiana Prowell, MD","place":"","tweet":"Thou shalt not email a simple question in lieu of a google search.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1215428735991721984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"86970530","username":"tmprowell"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1215085120656412700,"conversation_id":"1215085120656412672","created_at":1578533842000,"date":"2020-01-09","time":"01:37:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":86970530,"username":"tmprowell","name":"Tatiana Prowell, MD","place":"","tweet":"The humanity we encounter in unexpected places may be what saves us.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1215085120656412672","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"86970530","username":"tmprowell"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1213832851419844600,"conversation_id":"1213518550759100416","created_at":1578235278000,"date":"2020-01-05","time":"14:41:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":86970530,"username":"tmprowell","name":"Tatiana Prowell, MD","place":"","tweet":"@FutureMDEric, that was almost 25 yrs ago for me, & I just realized I can’t even remember what I did that summer. I doubt anyone else does either. Lesson: it’s prob not that important. Do what excites & restores you. In your case, that sounds like travel!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1213832851419844608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"86970530","username":"tmprowell"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1212200197440360400,"conversation_id":"1212200197440360449","created_at":1577846023000,"date":"2020-01-01","time":"02:33:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":86970530,"username":"tmprowell","name":"Tatiana Prowell, MD","place":"","tweet":"Well, I'm heading into 2020 with the longest to-do list of my entire life. Choosing \"Life is full 😊\" rather than \"I'm so busy 😖.\" Feeling grateful to have lots of ideas, a family that needs me, & enough optimism to think I can keep all these balls in the air. #happynewyear2020","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":["#happynewyear2020"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1212200197440360449","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"86970530","username":"tmprowell"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274807890893631500,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592772860000,"date":"2020-06-21","time":"20:54:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Follow up #4: Thus, in the 65+ cohort testing increased more, but cases decreased even further. Some of this shift in age of confirmed cases is certainly from broadened testing, but I don't see any obvious way to get this specific result without a partial shift in infections.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274807890893631488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274807889438240800,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592772860000,"date":"2020-06-21","time":"20:54:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Follow up #3: Looking at this plot, we see that in the 18-49y cohort, testing increased 2.6X between Apr 4 and June 6, while confirmed cases decreased 1.1X. In the 65+ cohort, testing increased 3.8X while confirmed cases decreased 1.7X.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274807889438240768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274219600238964700,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592632601000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"05:56:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Follow up #1: I should have made it clear that some (or perhaps most) of the effect in tweet 7 could be due to rationing of tests in April to the most severe cases. Because severe cases skew older, this will sieve torwards greater test positivity in older individuals.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":21,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":296,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274219600238964736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274144876376912000,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592614785000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"00:59:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"With \"reopening\", we may see this trend in age distribution continue. This should ameliorate some of the health impacts of COVID-19, but will necessarily only go so far. There is no way to completely isolate vulnerable individuals from a widespread epidemic. 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":330,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274144876376911872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274144875542311000,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592614785000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"00:59:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This would make sense, in that we should expect people to act somewhat rationally and attempt to better isolate if they're more at risk and have the resources to do so. Though note as well that essential workers will generally skew younger. 9/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":251,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274144875542310912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274144874716000300,"conversation_id":"1274144864196653057","created_at":1592614785000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"00:59:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"It's difficult to quantify this, but it looks like infections may have declined more in vulnerable older individuals. This is possibly contributing to declining daily deaths. Though it's also possible that improvements to clinical care have lead to better patient outcomes. 8/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":72,"likes_count":397,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1274144874716000256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273337426367279000,"conversation_id":"1273337412509265920","created_at":1592422274000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"19:31:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, I haven't been able to find public data on exposure setting in any of the state data dashboards. This data has to exist with state health departments (though could be spotty) and could be readily analyzed by public health epidemiologists. 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":291,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1273337426367279104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273337425574518800,"conversation_id":"1273337412509265920","created_at":1592422274000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"19:31:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I imagine that household transmission will be a more continuous occurrence, while with reopening we would expect a new layer of infections derived from social settings. 9/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":187,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1273337425574518784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273337424752464000,"conversation_id":"1273337412509265920","created_at":1592422274000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"19:31:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We should have all we need to address the reopening question. The simple analysis would be: have we seen an increase in the proportion of cases with exposure deriving from social settings? 8/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":188,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1273337424752463872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273337420696522800,"conversation_id":"1273337412509265920","created_at":1592422273000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"19:31:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Generally, I've been disappointed with the lack of US public data on exposure setting obtained through case investigation. There have been a couple recent manuscripts examining this, one focused on transmission in Hong Kong and one focused on Japan. 5/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":281,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1273337420696522752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269786526327517200,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575674000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:21:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"(Sorry for the deleted tweets. The original thread has typos for IFR of 0.005% and 0.01% when I meant 0.5% and 1%. This has been corrected)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269786526327517186","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269786158189305900,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575586000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:19:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A small improvement in epidemic control (through #TestTraceIsolate or otherwise) will pay dividends in mitigating infections acquired at protests, but also in reducing overall mortality. We can try to fix the things that are broken rather than playing off a false dichotomy. 10/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269786158189305856","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269786156616433700,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575585000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:19:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'd give a highly speculative \"more than 50 and less 500\" estimate for the number of eventual deaths for each day of protests. 8/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":94,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269786156616433664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269786155555250200,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575585000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:19:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"At the high end, I think perhaps possible to have 3000 new infections per day and with R0 of 0.95 and IFR of 1%, we'd expect 54k downstream infections and 540 eventual deaths. 7/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269786155555250176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269786154666061800,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575585000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:19:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given feedback, I'd like to give an updated (highly speculative) range. At the lower end, I think possible to have 1500 new infections per day in protests with 600k participating. With R0 of 0.9 and IFR of 0.5%, we'd expect 15k downstream infections and 75 eventual deaths. 6/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269786154666061824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269783999397851100,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575071000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:11:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My general guess / speculation is that the protests (and the police response) will increase the daily number of new infections by ~2-3%. This is not a massive spike in cases. But it's still large in absolute numbers (just as the protests are large in absolute numbers). 5/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269783999397851136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269783998634406000,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575071000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:11:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My estimates / guesses were born out of seeing others takes of massive spikes following protests and wanting to do my best to ground some estimates (even if speculative). If the epi modeling community leaves this as a vacuum it will be filled with takes from pundits. 4/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":164,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269783998634405888","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269783997871087600,"conversation_id":"1269783996109488130","created_at":1591575071000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"00:11:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My value of 1 transmission per day per infected individual attending a protest is a guess based on the Gangelt carnival study. We could easily have half this or less as well. 3/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":99,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269783997871087616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269715961021526000,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591558849000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"19:40:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"And a Marc says, a very small improvement in our ability to control the epidemic through #TestTraceIsolate (or otherwise) results in a huge mitigation of infections engendered by protests as well as infections engendered by operating the economy and society.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269715961021526016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269715960010702800,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591558849000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"19:40:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Swapping R0 from 0.95 to 0.9 would decrease estimated downstream infections from 54k-108k to 30k-60k and estimated downstream deaths from 270-1080 to 150-600. Generally, these back-of-the-envelop calculations should be taken with a huge grain of salt. We don't yet have data.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269715960010702848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533316182454300,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515304000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"(Technical note: I cut off the branching process at March 2021 to simulate introduction of vaccine, but this doesn't make a big difference in overall calculation. Without this, the average total number of downstream infections is 19.5 when R0 is 0.95.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":87,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533316182454272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533315310084000,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515303000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If the number of secondary infections in the protest setting is significantly higher than my guess of 1-2, we should start to see this as a spike in confirmed cases in the next few days in counties with large / ongoing protests. 12/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533315310084096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533314399928300,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515303000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Racism is a critical public health issue, but societal benefit of continued protests must be weighed against substantial potential impacts to health. Again, these 200-1100 deaths per day of protests will be disproportionately among black individuals. 11/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":69,"likes_count":249,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533314399928326","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533313519124500,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515303000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given the severity of COVID-19, even a modest increase of 3% to 6% on top of the current national epidemic has substantial downstream repercussions. 10/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533313519124480","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533312759918600,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515303000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My (updated) best guess is that each day of protests involving 600k people will result in between 200 and 1100 eventual deaths. 9/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":115,"likes_count":237,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533312759918592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533311954641000,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515303000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If we have 6000 infections sparked by protests each day, we would expect ~108k eventual infections and 540-1080 deaths per day of protests. 8/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":97,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533311954640896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533311052812300,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515302000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These infections will percolate through the community and be realized over the coming weeks. Assuming an IFR of between 0.5% and 1%, we would expect these ~54k infections to result in 270-540 eventual deaths per day of protests. 7/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533311052812288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533308011942000,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515302000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This is the fundamental issue with having a barely controlled epidemic in the US. Each additional infection may result in a large number of downstream infections. 5/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533308011941889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533307181559800,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515301000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Many infections don't transmit onwards, but some infections spark substantial transmission chains (despite R0 < 1). Averaged across this large variation, each index case causes ~18 downstream infections. 4/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533307181559808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269533304660746200,"conversation_id":"1269533303536664576","created_at":1591515301000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"07:35:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Here, we can use a simple branching process simulation to calculate the distribution of the total downstream infections from an index case given a specific reproductive number. 2/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269533304660746240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395248221831200,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482386000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"(Keep in mind that my numbers above represent a best guess in the absence of real data. They could be easily be off.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":64,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":583,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395248221831169","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395247311671300,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482385000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Police must seek responses that minimize transmission potential. Current responses of tear gas, pepper spray and jailing after curfew are actively exacerbating it. Deescalation is even more critical in light of COVID. 21/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":35,"retweets_count":478,"likes_count":1517,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395247311671296","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395246384742400,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482385000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Protestors can mitigate against transmission by following guidelines:\n* quarantine if showing any symptoms\n* wear a mask\n* try to stay 6 apart\n* use hand sanitizer\n* avoid yelling / chanting and instead use drums or other noise makers \n20/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":466,"likes_count":1324,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395246384742401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395242429476900,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482384000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Racism and state sponsored violence are critical public health issues. We should also acknowledge that the specific action of large-scale public protest at this moment during the COVID-19 pandemic may result in perhaps more than 10 but less than 100 deaths per day. 16/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":249,"likes_count":986,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395242429476864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395241531916300,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482384000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"If the protests do drive transmission we should start to see confirmed cases tick up 6-8 days after protests began, so around ~June 7. It might be possible to measure this increase, but it will likely be difficult to pick out a protest-specific effect in total case counts. 15/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":144,"likes_count":554,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395241531916288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395240592400400,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482384000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, sustained protests by the same individuals risks amplification where prevalence among protestors increases beyond the background ~0.5%, which could cause these numbers to grow. 14/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":445,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395240592400384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395239745147000,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482384000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"My take home here is that the additional infections driven by protests are likely currently small relative to the size of the US epidemic, about a 3% to 6% increase above the estimated ~100k daily infections in the US. 13/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":185,"likes_count":634,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395239745146880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395238839152600,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482383000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I could be wrong about the 1 downstream infection. If it's, say 2, these numbers become ~6000 infections per day in protestors, ~ 6000 infections per day in the community and 30-60 deaths. 12/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":57,"likes_count":365,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395238839152640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395237316640800,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482383000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Let's assume that the ~3000 infections in protestors will have few repercussions in terms of health, however, we should expect the ~3000 community infections to reflect the overall IFR of between 0.5% to 1% and so would result in 15-30 deaths. 11/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":74,"likes_count":403,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395237316640768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395236490326000,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482383000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, we might expect ~3000 infections per day as a result of protests, occurring mostly within younger healthy individuals. The national Rt number is roughly 1, so we expect these ~3000 infections to then cause on average another ~3000 infections in the broader community. 10/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":142,"likes_count":527,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395236490326016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395235609571300,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482383000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This is averaging over a great many instances where mask + social distancing keeps transmission from occurring and other instances where proximity / tear gas / arrest cause more substantial transmission. 9/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":49,"likes_count":387,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395235609571329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395234762285000,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482382000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Now, this is extremely difficult to estimate, but my rough guess would be that an infected individual would on average transmit to one further individual each day in the protest setting. 8/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":63,"likes_count":417,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395234762285056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395233780850700,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482382000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This number is likely to be off, but I'll take 600k as number of daily protestors across the US. With a population prevalence of 0.5%, this would imply 3000 infected individuals attending protests daily. 7/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":129,"likes_count":552,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395233780850689","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395226541518800,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482380000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Since January, I've striven to provide as complete an accounting of the #COVID19 pandemic as I can. And so I feel it is my job as a scientist to provide my best estimate of the amount of viral transmission the protests are likely to cause. 2/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":364,"likes_count":1141,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395226541518849","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269395225228664800,"conversation_id":"1269395225228664832","created_at":1591482380000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:26:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The appalling killing of George Floyd and video after video after video of police brutality cements the elemental *rightness* of the Black Lives Matter cause. 1/21","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":124,"retweets_count":1164,"likes_count":4050,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1269395225228664832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267990396602167300,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147443000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:24:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Follow up: Multiple people have pointed out the risk of answering this question truthfully. I don't know how to make this safe to answer. We want to know if the activity is dangerous from a public health perspective. But absolutely don't want to add risk for those protesting.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":361,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267990396602167297","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267988652434485200,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147027000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:17:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, I haven't seen sharing of large-scale deidentified datasets of these case investigations with general risk factors. I'm more familiar with more detailed outbreak investigations in the published literature. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":146,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267988652434485249","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267988650899329000,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147027000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:17:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This should (once controlling for confounding variables) give a direct estimate of the increase in exposure risk from attending a protest. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":215,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267988650899329024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267988650148589600,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147026000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:17:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm not a trained epidemiologist, but I'd think the best way to address this is to have public health across the country ask \"have you attended a protest\" during case investigation phone calls following up with positive cases. 5/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":63,"likes_count":462,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267988650148589568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267988647254491100,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147026000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:17:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We'll be able to measure this to some degree by looking for increasing case counts in counties with sustained protests and by looking for increased case counts in younger demographic. 2/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":281,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267988647254491136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267988646495318000,"conversation_id":"1267988646495318016","created_at":1591147026000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"01:17:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm of course concerned about the protests contributing to epidemic resurgence of #COVID19. They are outside, but close contact and large crowds are risk factors and if they continue day after day with the same group of people you risk amplification. 1/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":84,"retweets_count":509,"likes_count":2004,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267988646495318016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267916274496966700,"conversation_id":"1267916270067806208","created_at":1591129771000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"20:29:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Prof Zhang and colleagues did the heroic thing and immediately posted their genome sequence to a public repository on Jan 5. The world cannot thank them enough. It's a small tragedy that it sat in review at Genbank until Jan 12 and had to be posted separately to Virological. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":291,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267916274496966657","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267916272840265700,"conversation_id":"1267916270067806208","created_at":1591129770000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"20:29:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This public posting resulted in immediate release of 5 additional genome sequences generated by China CDC, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Wuhan Institute of Virology. 4/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267916272840265728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267672149935812600,"conversation_id":"1267672138992906240","created_at":1591071567000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"04:19:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The US CDC plays a central role in the GISRS network. How is this work supposed to continue? I'm also concerned that SARS-CoV-2 will evolve antigenically over the coming years and we'll need a process to update its vaccine. How are we supposed to do this without the WHO? 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":107,"likes_count":433,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267672149935812609","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267672149122142200,"conversation_id":"1267672138992906240","created_at":1591071567000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"04:19:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Without the GISRS network, the world's seasonal influenza vaccine would be significantly worse and I don't see how one would organize a global network like this one outside of the WHO. 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":253,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267672149122142209","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267552864966074400,"conversation_id":"1267552864966074368","created_at":1591043127000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"20:25:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As #COVID19 spread, we continually heard \"we're all in this together\" as an expression of solidarity. This rings hollow when a fraction of our society faces state-sanctioned violence. We must fix this. #BlackLivesMatter","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":111,"retweets_count":1150,"likes_count":5298,"hashtags":["#covid19","#blacklivesmatter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1267552864966074368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266850995918659600,"conversation_id":"1266850992194117632","created_at":1590875789000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"21:56:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, in this case, active community surveillance of ~100 acute respiratory specimens per day would have bought a 7 day awareness gain over a system without active community surveillance that relies on mortality to trigger testing. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":121,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1266850995918659584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266850995209793500,"conversation_id":"1266850992194117632","created_at":1590875788000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"21:56:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Had community surveillance been active a week earlier, the Feb 21 sample would have been prospectively identified rather than retrospectively identified. A sample collected on Feb 21 would have been tested on Feb 22. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":82,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1266850995209793536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063942432231400,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449722000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'm sorry to have created confusion here. Although I do think that my original actions were warranted given available evidence at the time. 18/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":115,"retweets_count":62,"likes_count":1943,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063942432231425","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063941488558000,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449722000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, I believe I was wrong in the original assessment of a WA1 introduction, but correct in asserting significant community spread in Washington State on Feb 29. 17/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":107,"likes_count":916,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063941488558080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063937663328300,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449721000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"This separate introduction may have been to British Columbia or may have been elsewhere. Better resolving this introduction geographically would benefit from additional sequencing of samples collected closer in time to the introduction event. 14/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":41,"likes_count":384,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063937663328256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063936681930800,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449720000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"At this point, I don't think we can exclude a WA1 introduction as an impossibility, but I think the most likely scenario is a separate undetected introduction by a genetically identical virus or a virus possessing the additional 17858G mutation. 13/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":67,"likes_count":499,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063936681930753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063934614098000,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449720000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, with 277 genomes sequenced from WA viruses belonging to the clade collected between Feb 21 and March 15 we don't see any samples identical to WA1 or just possessing 17858G. 11/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":337,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063934614097920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063933703884800,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449720000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The observation that all viruses in the Washington State outbreak clade differ by two mutations from WA1 is important. I had initially expected this two mutation \"gap\" to be filled in with sequencing additional viruses . 10/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":343,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063933703884803","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063932747636700,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449719000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"A scenario of a WA1 introduction requires a transmission chain that makes it to British Columbia while not accumulating mutations and a local transmission chain that accumulates two mutations. 9/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":315,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063932747636736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063929236951000,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449719000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I had initially thought this unlikely given that this \"side branch\" scenario would mean that the genetic match between WA1 and the Washington State outbreak was strictly by chance, while this variant is rare in viruses from China (found in ~3% of sequenced viruses). 6/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":348,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063929236951041","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063924090630100,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449717000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The central observation had been that the Washington State outbreak genetically matched the WA1 virus, but possessed an additional two mutations as expected given sampling times. 3/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":439,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063924090630144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265063923088191500,"conversation_id":"1265063921880150016","created_at":1590449717000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"23:35:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Based on data that's emerged in the intervening months, I no longer believe that a direct WA1 introduction is a likely hypothesis for the origin of the Washington State outbreak. 2/18","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":138,"likes_count":768,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063923088191489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261376824770097200,"conversation_id":"1261376819607080961","created_at":1589570644000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"19:24:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Thus, it's possible that Jean had COVID in December, but it's much more likely to have been an asymptomatic infection in the intervening months. 7/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":51,"likes_count":515,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1261376824770097152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261376824048672800,"conversation_id":"1261376819607080961","created_at":1589570644000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"19:24:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given these probabilities, we can compare hypotheses under equal priors. We get a 9% probability of scenario 1 (false positive in serological assay), 89% probability of scenario 2 (asymptomatic COVID-19 infection) and 2% probability of scenario 3 (COVID-19 infection in Dec). 6/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":308,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1261376824048672768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261376820718432300,"conversation_id":"1261376819607080961","created_at":1589570643000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"19:24:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There are three possibilities:\nScenario 1. False positive in the serological assay.\nScenario 2. A non-COVID infection in December, followed by an asymptomatic COVID-19 infection between Feb and April.\nScenario 3. A bona fide COVID-19 infection in December.\n2/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":250,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1261376820718432256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260281099030130700,"conversation_id":"1260281079732166656","created_at":1589309403000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:50:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I see continued genetic sequencing as potentially illuminating sources of infection and whether further cases within a state are largely the result of local transmission or of repeated introductions from outside the state. 12/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":127,"likes_count":913,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281099030130693","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260281098195464200,"conversation_id":"1260281079732166656","created_at":1589309403000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:50:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Overall, we see substantial mixing of transmission chains across states. This mixing largely occurred during Feb and early March. I'd expect moving forward for there to be more geographically focused transmission chains given reduced travel in the US. 11/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":206,"likes_count":936,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281098195464192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260281082894708700,"conversation_id":"1260281079732166656","created_at":1589309399000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:49:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"These analyses depend on comparison of sequenced viruses and so equitable sampling over geography and time is necessary to make reliable conclusions. This sampling has improved recently, but there are still gaps in sequencing and caution in interpretation is warranted. 4/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":73,"likes_count":644,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281082894708736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260281080629756000,"conversation_id":"1260281079732166656","created_at":1589309399000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:49:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We see a spectrum where some states had single (early) introductions that fueled the majority of the epidemic, while in others the epidemic appears to be driven by a larger number of separate introductions. 2/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":144,"likes_count":926,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281080629755904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260281079732166700,"conversation_id":"1260281079732166656","created_at":1589309398000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:49:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We now have enough #SARSCoV2 genomic data from different states to make some broad conclusions about how the #COVID19 epidemic has unfolded in the US. 1/14","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":154,"retweets_count":3896,"likes_count":8260,"hashtags":["#sarscov2","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1260281079732166656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879541935698000,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975246000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Notably, this is exactly what countries like South Korea and New Zealand have been able to achieve. The US was not able to reach suppression with our lockdown and so we're left with agonizing decisions about how to keep society functioning while holding the virus in check. 11/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":133,"likes_count":446,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879541935697921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879541121937400,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975246000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, the main point of the report was that given IFR, we should be pursuing suppression rather than mitigation. This implies a strict lockdown for suppression followed by #TestTraceIsolate to keep epidemic suppressed. 10/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":73,"likes_count":249,"hashtags":["#testtraceisolate"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879541121937410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879540320845800,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975245000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The biggest issue with the \"do nothing\" scenario of ~2M deaths is that it would never come to pass due to natural behavioral changes. 9/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":163,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879540320845824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879539326771200,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975245000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Key questions surround the relative effectiveness of lockdown policies vs natural behavioral changes in reducing R0, but not what would happen in a hypothetical \"do nothing\" scenario. 8/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":117,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879539326771201","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879537544216600,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975245000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Given an IFR of 0.9% and ~80% of the population infected, we easily derive the widely circulated mortality estimates of ~2M deaths in the US and ~500k deaths in the UK. 6/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879537544216577","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879536722149400,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975245000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Without the simulation, just from basic epi knowledge we can assume that COVID-19 will infect a large fraction of the population in the absence of any control measures or *behavioral changes*. 5/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":108,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879536722149379","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258879531986768000,"conversation_id":"1258879531022082049","created_at":1588975243000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:00:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"However, the code and simulation mean little in terms of mortality expectations. As is usually the case, everything is about the assumptions of the model. Here, it was assumed that the fundamental reproductive number (R0) is 2.4 and infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.9%. 2/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":100,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1258879531986767872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825380322271200,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723914000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"We have to live with this uncertainty over the functional impact of D614G while more data is gathered. We need:\n1. Cell culture studies to demonstrate effect in vitro\n2. Further clinical comparisons between patients with D vs G\n3. More careful epidemiological analysis\n16/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":94,"likes_count":489,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825380322271234","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825378166427600,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723914000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Both Korber et al and our analysis show no measurable effect on patient outcome. Hence, the hypothesis at this point is entirely in terms of transmissibility rather than severity. 14/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":221,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825378166427648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825377310797800,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723913000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There are confounders to worry about here as well (primarily time from symptom onset to specimen collection), but I believe replication in two study populations is suggestive of an effect of D vs G on Ct value and possibly viral load. 13/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825377310797825","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825370750873600,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723912000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The alternative explanation put forth by Korber et al is that this pattern is due to the G variant being more transmissible. I think this is possible, but it's difficult to distinguish between these hypotheses with this frequency data alone. 10/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":171,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825370750873600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825369886875600,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723912000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"It's still very possible that this pattern could emerge from repeated introductions from Europe / NYC in the US spreading the G variant and multiple introductions from Europe spreading G in Australia. 9/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":123,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825369886875651","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825364484567000,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723910000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"Its global frequency is heavily confounded with epidemiological circumstance, ie perhaps G is prevalent because it got lucky in the European introduction. However, regional frequencies should be more robust to this confounding (although not perfectly so). 6/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825364484567040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257825362773528600,"conversation_id":"1257825352660877313","created_at":1588723910000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"00:11:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"The primary finding of Korber et al is that D614G appears to be increasing in frequency over time in sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. I strongly caution against interpretation of selective effects in the global frequency of D614G. 5/16","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":202,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825362773528579","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255989956247355400,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588286315000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"22:38:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"An important subtlety I missed in the original thread: Tests per day almost doubled from ~120k to ~200k over the course of April while confirmed cases remained roughly flat at ~30k per day. Does suggest some decrease in number of infections, though probably less than than 1.6X.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":71,"retweets_count":171,"likes_count":1344,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255989956247355392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255979192782434300,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588283749000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:55:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I'd be happy to wrong here and start to see a week-over-week decline. I just don't know what gets us there if we're not there already.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":72,"retweets_count":133,"likes_count":1415,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255979192782434305","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255976687579181000,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588283151000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:45:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups. 9/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":201,"likes_count":1236,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976687579181057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255976686715203600,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588283151000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:45:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"I would suspect that the dynamic we're looking at is local policy decisions / people's changing behavior as risk is perceived to decrease resulting in increasing local case counts and then a cycle of increased social distancing to compensate. 8/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":170,"likes_count":1058,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976686715203584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255976682676088800,"conversation_id":"1255976675252158465","created_at":1588283150000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:45:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":224896427,"username":"trvrb","name":"Trevor Bedford","place":"","tweet":"As we move forward into summer, transmission rate will be affected by:\n1. efforts to get society and the economy moving again\n2. better knowledge and hygiene practices\n3. possible impact of seasonality\n5/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":170,"likes_count":1165,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1255976682676088833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"224896427","username":"trvrb"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
