{"id":1265987286488973300,"conversation_id":"1265984315298664448","created_at":1590669864000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"12:44:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Many people are saying “testing, testing, testing” will be the answer, with some good behavior and tracking thrown in. But how much testing and how often?\n9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1265987286488973321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265987154427228200,"conversation_id":"1265984315298664448","created_at":1590669833000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"12:43:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Of course that means 80% of the 25,000 faculty and staff on campus will also be infected. Several thousand will become seriously ill and hundreds will die. Bad news.\n8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1265987154427228166","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265986084258840600,"conversation_id":"1265984315298664448","created_at":1590669578000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"12:39:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The US has about a million active cases of COVID-19 in a population of 330 million, about 0.3%. Let’s assume students and staff reflect this national average come Fall term. That means a campus like Michigan should expect about 200 infected people on campus \n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1265986084258840577","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263595388155486200,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099591000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:19:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"So let's get with the program and get serious about ramping up truly massive scale testing so we can catch cases early, making tracking easier, make job sites safe and get the economy back on track\n20/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263595388155486210","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594857945161700,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099465000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:17:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"If people are not contagious after they have clinically recovered and have developed good titer IgG antibodies, they can be safely released from the hospital or quarantine. This would avoid tying up people and resources waiting weeks for viral fragments to clear\n19/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263594857945161729","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594362534981600,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099347000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:15:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Some of the reluctance to increasing testing may be a sense that our case trackers are overwhelmed already, why add to their work? But testing more means we find new cases earlier before they have lots of contacts\n15/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263594362534981632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594274026778600,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099326000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:15:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"There are many reasons we want to seriously ramp up testing. Employers want to keep their job sites safe. Ideally, that means testing every work every few days. To do that we’ll need 50 million test per day\n14/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263594274026778624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594141356679200,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099294000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:14:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"So how do we achieve real world false positive rates of one per thousand? Big centers that do lots of testing so they can do really exhaustive QA/QC testing. If you’re only running a few hundred tests a day, it’s hard to find per thousand errors\n13/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263594141356679169","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594063548182500,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099275000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:14:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The FDA isn’t being obstructionist, they just want the results of the test to be meaningful true positives not confusing false positives. To get there on direct to consumer testing, we need real world false positive rates in the 1 per thousand range\n12/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263594063548182536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263593993083879400,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099259000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:14:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"If a physician feels that you have symptoms consistent with COVID-19, the prior probability that you have the virus goes way up, and the 0.8% false positive rate becomes much less of a concern. A called positive is likely to be a true positive\n11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263593993083879432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263593383194316800,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099113000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:11:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"To understand why the FDA restricts we need Bayes theorem. The US has a population of 335 million and about 1.6 million confirmed cases (0.5%). If a test has a false positive rate of 1%, that means 2/3rds of the positives will be false positives\n8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263593383194316802","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263593306706997200,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590099095000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:11:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"There’s another bottleneck that we need to address. All of the current tests are approved for use with a physician prescription and only for testing of symptoms. We have home pregnancy tests and home HIV tests. Why not home SARS-CoV-2 tests?\n7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263593306706997250","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263592537651961900,"conversation_id":"1263592199960137729","created_at":1590098912000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:08:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The most sensitive and specific tests for COVID-19 use quantitative RTPCR. We have about 1,000 instruments each able to run about 1,000 RTPCR tests per day for a national capacity of about a million tests per day. \n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1263592537651961857","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261776261103472600,"conversation_id":"1261776261103472640","created_at":1589665877000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"21:51:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"It’s interesting that the 1918 Influenza Pandemic isn’t even mentioned in most accounts of the Woodrow Wilson presidency while Guillain Barre & the problems with the Swine Flu vaccine program of 1976 may have cost Gerald Ford the election. Times change","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261776261103472640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261662410630447000,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589638733000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:18:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"To control viral spread we need fast, field deplorable, direct to consumer/employer/venue tests. It’s OK if they’re not as sensitive as RTPCR, the need is to detect highly contagious people so that they can self-isolate before they expose many others 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261662410630447104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261661811625078800,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589638591000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:16:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"As Bill Gates says, “If you don’t test until you have symptoms and it takes 3 or 4 days to get a result back, what are you going to do, send all your contacts an apology care, ‘Sorry if I infected you.’” 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261661811625078790","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261661263156871200,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589638460000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:14:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Viral shedding often peaks early after exposure, often when the individual is presymptomatic. A test that is only performed after symptoms develop and then takes multiple days to report back is useless for controlling disease spread 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261661263156871168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261660693570424800,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589638324000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:12:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Conversely, many of the RTPCR tests positive at high Ct are just fragments of viral RNA not live virus, and these fragments may persist for weeks. If we insist on repeated  “-“ RTPCR tests before discharge, we are unnecessarily tying up people and resources 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261660693570424832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261659813743865900,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589638114000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:08:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Also we talk to much about testing as binary “+” or “-“, but positive at Ct 16 on an RTPCR is a millions times more virus than positive at Ct 36. Bad things happened when a highly contagious person shedding lots of virus gets into a setting where many people can be exposed 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261659813743865856","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261658850756829200,"conversation_id":"1261658016375615488","created_at":1589637885000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"14:04:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"But it’s important note that this phenomenon only applies after the virus has been spreading in the community for a while. As the people of Albany Georgia learned, it only takes one individual in the wrong setting to trigger a large outbreak 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1261658850756829184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260563085087121400,"conversation_id":"1260560587630788611","created_at":1589376634000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"13:30:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Also true for Taiwan, Singapore and Korea. All foreign visitors are required to go into an enforced 14 day quarantine. No way the US is going impose that kind of travel restriction between states within the US. As long as one state is infected, effectively all states are infected","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1260563085087121409","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260224238432276500,"conversation_id":"1260214598441074689","created_at":1589295846000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"15:04:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"BTW did you know that Yersinia pestis is named for the Russian microbiologist Yersin who identified it in Hong Kong during the 1894 plague. He successfully cultured it because he couldn’t afford the 37C incubators used by his European competitors, bug grows better at low temp","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1260224238432276480","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256616135908380700,"conversation_id":"1256616135908380673","created_at":1588435608000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"16:06:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"We need testing on such a massive scale that we catch people shedding huge amounts of virus before they have a chance to become super spreaders. That means the ability to test all the workers every day, millions of test per day throughput\n13/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256616135908380673","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256615521035968500,"conversation_id":"1256615403754749952","created_at":1588435461000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"16:04:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"We need testing on such a massive scale that we catch people shedding huge amounts of virus before they have a chance to become super spreaders. That means the ability to test all the workers every day, millions of test per day throughput\n13/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256615521035968512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256614550377566200,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588435230000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"16:00:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"So what’s the solution? The big problem is cross community spread by super spreaders. Within a  family spread is going to happen, the key to control is to keep additional clusters from getting infected.\n11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256614550377566208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613635641815000,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588435012000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:56:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line, with 56k community health workers, limited testing capacity, significant false negs, slow turnaround, uncooperative people and 300k new cases of COVID-19 a day, trace/test/isolate is doomed to failure. Sorry, but it is what it is\n10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613635641815040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613468209393700,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434972000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:56:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"All of the multiple potential points of failure add up (can’t find case, failed to mention contacts, can’t ID contact, contact won’t cooperate, false negative test, won’t self-isolate …).  If the overall success rate isn’t 60-80%+, the virus spreads and the process fails\n9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613468209393665","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613265360199700,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434923000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:55:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The goal is to make all of this happen, successfully, before most of the infected contacts infect anyone. We’re already starting a day or more behind the 8-ball because our turnaround time for tests is a day or more\n7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613265360199680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613188411494400,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434905000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:55:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Assuming a contact is cooperative, they need to come in, get tested and self-isolate until their test results are back. And if the test is positive, the process starts all over again\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613188411494402","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613110426808300,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434886000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:54:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Identifying some contacts may be easy (e.g. co-workers), but others will be much harder (who was near you on the bus last Monday), some may cooperate, some may fear social stigma, job loss or just be afraid and refuse\n5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613110426808321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256613002012438500,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434861000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:54:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Contact tracking is a lot of work: contact the case, interview them to find everyone they interacted with over past 2 weeks, decide which of those contacts were significant risk of transmission, get in touch with contacts, get them tested\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256613002012438528","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256612879303954400,"conversation_id":"1256612572066873347","created_at":1588434831000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"15:53:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Presymptomatic viral shedding means you need to catch infected people quickly before they infect others. And SARSCOV2 is a highly contagious virus, you need to trace and isolate most of the infected contacts or it keeps spreading\n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256612879303954432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256197248100249600,"conversation_id":"1256194944441729025","created_at":1588335737000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"12:22:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"This adds to the case that people shedding high levels of virus are central to community spread. We need massive scale rapid turnaround testing to identify them quickly, even during their presymptomatic phase. Full disclosure, my company is working to create tests to do this","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256197248100249600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256196060541849600,"conversation_id":"1256194944441729025","created_at":1588335454000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"12:17:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"All viruses mutate. The coronaviruses mutate relatively slowly, but they do accumulate variants. The D614G variant of the spike protein appears to increase transmissibility, and the higher viral burden in the nose is a reasonable explanation for its increased transmissibility","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1256196060541849600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255499049689591800,"conversation_id":"1255464340041404418","created_at":1588169274000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"14:07:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"I would love to make this available as an inexpensive OTC direct to consumer product so people can test themselves as often as they like without waiting for a prescription or trying to meet arbitrary public health criteria. #RightToTest should be a thing","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":["#righttotest"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1255499049689591808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255484725407383600,"conversation_id":"1255464340041404418","created_at":1588165858000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"13:10:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Viral shedding varies over a million fold range and varies from day to day. The goal is to catch highly contagious people before they infect others. That will require extensive testing, not random sampling","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1255484725407383558","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254401735868719000,"conversation_id":"1254399928245288960","created_at":1587907654000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:27:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"People don’t realize how much impact incremental changes in medical care can have. Sickle cell & cystic fibrosis used to frequently lead to death in childhood. Now most patients live well into adulthood. Lots of little steps lead to big results. RCTs are how we know what works","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1254401735868719104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254399928245289000,"conversation_id":"1254399928245288960","created_at":1587907223000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:20:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Vaccines are hard and uncertain so what do we do?\n- multiple shots on goal, 78 vaccines in development\n- antivirals to decrease disease severity\n- learn good medicine, we’re getting better at COVID19 care\n- smart policy to limit spread & keep hospitals from being overwhelmed","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":78,"likes_count":325,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1254399928245288960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253796059912065000,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763249000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:20:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"We need to mass produce these test kits so that people can test themselves at home and employers can test workers to keep job sites safe, and they can do so as often as they like, even every day. It’s possible and we’re working on it.\n15/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253796059912065027","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795900020920300,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763211000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:20:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"But to detect contagious people with SARS-CoV-2, we don’t need the ultimate sensitivity. People shedding only a very small number of virus probably aren’t all that contagious. It’s the folks shedding massive viral counts that we really need to catch\n14/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795900020920322","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795844635181000,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763198000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:19:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"In fact, tests just like this have been used to test for influenza! So why did we shift to RT-PCR? RT-PCR is more sensitive and maybe more specific, but it’s a lot more expensive to run and requires a fancy instrument.\n13/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795844635181061","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795784937681000,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763184000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:19:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"A test like this is really cheap to make. You only need a tiny amount of antibody per test and the rest of the kit is inexpensive plastic and a few chemicals. These tests are quick, and they don’t require fancy equipment to run\n12/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795784937680899","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795729744769000,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763171000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:19:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"One way to get binding domains is to clone the antibody genes from the B cells of a person who has recovered from COVID-19, find clones that bind tightly and express them as monoclonal antibodies\n11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795729744769025","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795677504708600,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763158000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:19:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Antibodies are great candidates for the binding domains. In fact, all of the people who have recovered from COVID-19 have pretty good antibodies against the virus in their plasma. That’s why we give convalescent plasma as treatment\n10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795677504708611","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795632638234600,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763147000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:19:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"What do we need to setup a lateral flow assay? Two different binding domains each of which binds the target. One to tag it and a second to trap it, and they need to bind to separate sites so they don’t interfere with each other\n9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795632638234624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795555534344200,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763129000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:18:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Lateral flow assays work by letting a sample of bodily fluid, e.g. saliva or urine, diffuse through a system where the particle of interest is tagged and detected. In a pregnancy test that particle is beta-HCG. For coronavirus, it’s the virus\n8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795555534344197","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795260616097800,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763059000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:17:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Because asymptomatic people can be contagious and viral shedding varies from day to day, we need to test frequently. We’d really like to be able to test everyone coming in to work every day at the beginning of their shift\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795260616097792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253795207772098600,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587763046000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:17:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The amount of virus being shed by different people varies enormously. The widely used RT-PCR test turns positive anywhere between cycle 15 and cycle 37. That’s more than a million fold difference in viral load!\n5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253795207772098560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253794981342580700,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587762992000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:16:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Full disclosure. I am an exec in a biotech company, and my company is developing tests for SARS-CoV-2. I try to keep my posts objective, but obviously I believe that this is an important issue and that the solutions we are pursuing have merit\n2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253794981342580738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253794887062958000,"conversation_id":"1253794887062958081","created_at":1587762970000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"21:16:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Let’s talk testing, specifically the coronavirus test we really need and essentially no one is talking about. What we need is a fast, low cost field test for highly contagious people, and tests like this exist, in fact they’ve been around quite a while\n1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":141,"likes_count":375,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253794887062958081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253411189154963500,"conversation_id":"1253410295122243584","created_at":1587671489000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:51:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"We really, really need to hard data on who is seropositive before making policy on a theory like this, but it’s possible that we may be able to open up hard hit cities more rapidly than we might have thought possible🤞🙏\n7/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253411189154963456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253410836392972300,"conversation_id":"1253410295122243584","created_at":1587671405000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:50:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The initial spread of the disease & massive burden on the health care system was likely spread through the most connected people in the exposure network. If that’s true, when we relax social distancing, spread may not be as fast as it was initially\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253410836392972294","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253410749189288000,"conversation_id":"1253410295122243584","created_at":1587671384000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:49:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"If 21% of New York City residents are now seropositive and hopefully immune to reinfection, most of the highly connected people with the largest number of contacts may now be seropositive and resistant\n5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253410749189287936","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253410475703853000,"conversation_id":"1253410295122243584","created_at":1587671319000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"19:48:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"As we’ve all heard many times, the goal of social distancing is to “flatten the curve”. The reason we want to do that is to avoid overwhelming health care systems because when good nursing and medical care aren’t available, mortality rates shoot up\n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253410475703853056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253392783173456000,"conversation_id":"1253392238752813057","created_at":1587667101000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"18:38:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"BTW, not happy to see COVID19 go from science by preprint to science by press release. The New York State Department of Public Health has a long tradition of excellent work, I’m really hoping and expecting to see preprints and publications on their work soon \n7/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253392783173455874","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253392568068563000,"conversation_id":"1253392238752813057","created_at":1587667049000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"18:37:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line, I don’t care how the Stanford statisticians try to massage their data, COVID-19 is a far more serious illness than seasonal influenza. But we all knew that, didn’t we 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253392568068562944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253392412011044900,"conversation_id":"1253392238752813057","created_at":1587667012000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"18:36:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"These numbers are consistent with some other unfortunate “experiments” we have conducted. Among 712 passengers and crew infected on the Diamond Princess, 13 have died (IFR 1.8% in this elderly population) and 4 are still in serious condition 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1253392412011044866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252908809393234000,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587551712000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"10:35:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"12/addendum This Thread comes across as too pessimistic. There are ~75 vaccine candidates entering clinical trials. Hopefully some will be successful, and even if they “just” mitigate severe disease and require an annual booster that would still be a big a success","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":173,"retweets_count":425,"likes_count":3405,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252908809393233921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252701072197668900,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587502184000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:49:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line, yes, we all hope we'll quickly develop a highly effective vaccine, but the biology of coronavirus and the history of veterinary vaccines suggests it may be a slog. We need to keep working on antivirals, and we need to be prepared for extended social distancing 10/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":531,"likes_count":1931,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252701072197668865","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252700647738290200,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587502083000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:48:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"But R0 for SARSCOV2 is 3 to 5 so a vaccine that fades to 50% effective would still leave the infectivity at 1.5 to 2.5. And that’s assuming 100% vaccination. If only half the population accepted vaccination, the infectivity would be 2.3 to 3.8. That’s  quite contagious 9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":335,"likes_count":1378,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252700647738290184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252699942998720500,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587501915000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:45:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"So even if only half the population takes the flu vaccine and it only works half the time, we are still knocking the effective infectivity down to 1 to 1.3 range which means the flu virus spreads a lot less quickly, far fewer people get infected and lives are saved 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":224,"likes_count":1198,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252699942998720524","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252699690111565800,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587501854000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:44:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Seasonal influenza vaccines are only ~50% effective meaning there is still a 1 in 2 chance you’ll get the flu even if you got the vaccine. But don’t get me wrong, the flu vaccines still save thousands of lives. That’s because flu isn’t that contagious, R0 in 1.4-1.7 range 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":308,"likes_count":1494,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252699690111565824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252699512575049700,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587501812000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:43:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"That means a vaccine will need to be quite effective if it’s going to stop the spread of SARSCOV2. The polio, measles and smallpox vaccines are really remarkable medicines inducing high level long lasting immunity, but not all vaccines work so well 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":282,"likes_count":1367,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252699512575049728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252699439610945500,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587501795000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:43:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The problem is that SARSCOV2 is a highly contagious virus. While initial estimates for R0 were in the ~2.5 range, more recent estimates suggest it’s in the 3 to 5 range, and some individuals really do seem to be superspreaders shedding huge numbers of virus 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":370,"likes_count":1413,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252699439610945540","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252698777296797700,"conversation_id":"1252698777296797698","created_at":1587501637000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"20:40:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"If you’re hoping a vaccine is going to be a knight in shining armor saving the day, you may be in for a disappointment. SARSCOV2 is a highly contagious virus. A vaccine will need to induce durable high level immunity, but coronaviruses often don’t  induce that kind of immunity 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":418,"retweets_count":6907,"likes_count":14967,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252605907688722400,"conversation_id":"1252605907688722434","created_at":1587479495000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"14:31:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The thing I don’t understand on the brouhaha about these CA serology studies, even at the dubious high end of their estimates >95% of the population is still susceptible. It’s not subtle when the virus moves through a community, and 5% immunity won’t help much","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252605907688722434","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251514399766073300,"conversation_id":"1251514399766073344","created_at":1587219259000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:14:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Need more discussion of age and SARSCOV2 symptoms. The Santa Clara serology study lumps most of the study population into a single 19-64 yr old group, but many school kids are asymptomatic and the fatality rate increases dramatically with age. How about fraction asymptomatic?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1251514399766073344","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251136374788567000,"conversation_id":"1251133247012188162","created_at":1587129131000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"13:12:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"5/ Social distancing amounts to temporarily pruning the network. It will slow spread, but that long tail remains, and when social distancing constraints are removed, infections will rapidly recur. Policy makers need to understand this so that they can plan appropriately\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1251136374788567040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251135825187831800,"conversation_id":"1251133247012188162","created_at":1587129000000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"13:10:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"4/ A high fraction of people in highly connected communities will get the infection, recover and have immunity leading to an apparent slowing of spread, but the disease will continue to propagate through less connected communities","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1251135825187831814","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251134700820861000,"conversation_id":"1251133247012188162","created_at":1587128732000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"13:05:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"3/ Social network theory is a better and more understandable model. Disease spreads rapidly in highly connected regions like NYC, but this will be followed by a long slow spread through less connected nodes","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1251134700820860928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251133968000442400,"conversation_id":"1251133247012188162","created_at":1587128557000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"13:02:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"2/ Many widely cited models (e.g. IHME) fit symmetric curves which inevitably implies disease rates rapidly fall to zero after the peak. Policy makers find this appealing, but it’s not reality","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1251133968000442370","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250828201431052300,"conversation_id":"1250824680090501123","created_at":1587055657000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"16:47:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Almost every other region continues to see high levels of disease and the potential for rapid acceleration. I would love to see peaks and rapid falls in infection rates, but basing policy on the assumption that this will happen is foolhardy and could lead to tragedy\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1250828201431052288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250827662609854500,"conversation_id":"1250824680090501123","created_at":1587055528000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"16:45:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Seriously, Korea is the only place with reliable data that has dramatically reduced the case counts. China probably has as well, but both of these countries are seeing new cases come in from outside and both continue heavy social isolation and massive testing","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1250827662609854467","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249484204615897000,"conversation_id":"1249479562507018240","created_at":1586735223000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:47:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Will this work? Don’t know. The virus may be so contagious w so many assymptomatic carriers/transmitters and a long tail of viral shedding even in seropositive people that mitigation and return to a productive economy will be impossible, but massive testing is our best shot 6/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249484204615897093","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249481879901950000,"conversation_id":"1249479562507018240","created_at":1586734669000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:37:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Why not let people do it at home? Because we need positive cases reported. The instruments that run the test need to have direct cellular network connections so that they automatically report results in real time. 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249481879901949955","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249481288131772400,"conversation_id":"1249479562507018240","created_at":1586734527000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:35:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Relying on testing through the physician offices adds the barriers of scheduling, travel time and co-pays. Instead we need to make testing omnipresent. Pharmacies, employers, grocery stores, ... direct to consumer, no barrier to being tested 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249481288131772418","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249480838007398400,"conversation_id":"1249479562507018240","created_at":1586734420000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:33:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"By the time a COVID19 death occurs, there are likely a hundred cases in the community. By the time a symptomatic case presents for care, there are likely a dozen cases. To prevent further spread, we need to identify, contact trace and isolate as quickly as possible 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249480838007398401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249480534297886700,"conversation_id":"1249479562507018240","created_at":1586734348000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:32:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The epi models say ~97% of the population remains susceptible as we emerge from lockdown. Sporadic reintroduction will occur through travel or isolated pockets, and they will spread essentially as fast as the original outbreak 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249480534297886727","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249354877928685600,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586704389000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"15:13:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Addendum for the politicos. These [disease spread, freak out, social distance] cycles last 100-200 days. The election is 205 days away. Bodes poorly for incumbents if a bunch of older reliable voters are anxious about leaving their homes as a result of repeated policy failures","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249354877928685568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249351175129968600,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586703506000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"14:58:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Especially for vulnerable populations (OK Boomers, I’m looking at us), it’s going to be a long, fitful return to normalcy 6/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249351175129968647","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249350801199423500,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586703417000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"14:56:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The availability of effective antivirals will help to reduce the death rate, but paradoxically this may also lead to less stringent social distancing and higher prevalence of disease 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249350801199423490","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249350262172668000,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586703288000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"14:54:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Population scale rapid readout testing will help to identify local recurrences so that regionally targeted social distancing measures can be applied 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249350262172667907","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249349410791796700,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586703085000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"14:51:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Because most people are not immune, local recurrences will spread as quickly as the original disease did, especially if they occur after most of the social distancing measures have been relaxed 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249349410791796736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249348831059357700,"conversation_id":"1249347521908027398","created_at":1586702947000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"14:49:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Which leads to a prediction, as social distancing tamps down death rates, we will try to re-open society. But remember best estimates are that only a few percent of the population has been exposed/has immunity. Local outbreaks will recur 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1249348831059357700","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248010813492719600,"conversation_id":"1248008280749703170","created_at":1586383939000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"22:12:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"So how about it folks, can we start doing serology in the US do better understand where we really are? Serology tests have been available for quite a while in Asia. We need to start using them here 6/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1248010813492719618","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248010286394511400,"conversation_id":"1248008280749703170","created_at":1586383813000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"22:10:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"What we really, really, really need now is serology data to see how many people have antibodies. If and that a BIG IF in fact the bending of the curve that we are seeing now is herd immunity as much as social distancing, it means we could safely start returning to normal life 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1248010286394511360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248009811964219400,"conversation_id":"1248008280749703170","created_at":1586383700000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"22:08:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Most older adults who are infected develop symptoms, but we don’t really know how often kids and young adults are asymptomatic carriers. It’s possible that the spread in schools and campuses in February and March was much wider than we realized 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1248009811964219393","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248009073494118400,"conversation_id":"1248008280749703170","created_at":1586383524000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"22:05:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"That’s actually great news because it means we may actually be achieving herd immunity, especially in hard hit places like New York, Detroit and New Orleans 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1248009073494118400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248008280749703200,"conversation_id":"1248008280749703170","created_at":1586383335000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"22:02:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"A contrarian & optimistic view. We all know that the US has grossly under tested for COVID19, but we have a long established influenza like illness surveillance network. That data suggests that in mid March we had maybe 10 million cases of non-influenza influenza like illness 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1248008280749703170","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243564996895834000,"conversation_id":"1243538825797828610","created_at":1585323974000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"15:46:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Related question for the epi modelers, is there a tendency for this kind of focusing to occur naturally? If people don’t take warnings seriously until the local case count grows, it will have the same effect","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1243564996895834120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243538825797828600,"conversation_id":"1243538825797828610","created_at":1585317734000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"14:02:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"If counties with low COVID19 case counts are declared low risk and relax precautions, spread there will accelerate while precautions in highly infected regions slow spread. Net effect, we synchronize so everyone peaks simultaneously. Does not seem like a desirable outcome","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1243538825797828610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243001721028325400,"conversation_id":"1242988545024897024","created_at":1585189678000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"02:27:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Living in Ann Arbor, I could leave after a dinner at home and arrive for a 9 AM meeting anywhere from Boston to NYC, DC, Atlanta, St Louis, Chicago or Minneapolis in an overnight drive. Please make this happen","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1243001721028325382","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242257813382070300,"conversation_id":"1242253909558808586","created_at":1585012317000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"01:11:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Or everyone over the age of ~60 disappears from physical society until we have effective antivirals and vaccines","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1242257813382070274","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242257473530212400,"conversation_id":"1242253909558808586","created_at":1585012236000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"01:10:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"The death rate of COVID19 is in the 2 to 3% range if you have access to hospital care. It jumps up to the 5 to 10% range if you don’t. Millions more people will die if this is the path we choose","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1242257473530212352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241815463606259700,"conversation_id":"1241815012110405636","created_at":1584906852000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"19:54:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Lesson from SARS 1.0, coronaviruses spread by short range aerosol. If you don’t use adequate safeguards, health care staff get infected and hospitals become super spreading centers","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1241815463606259719","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240397865484259300,"conversation_id":"1240395641844613123","created_at":1584568871000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"22:01:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"All those bunny suits in the photos from China and Korea, that’s aerosol precautions. The yellow paper gowns and procedure masks in the US are droplet precautions and won’t protect against aerosol spread. It’s going to be a big problem","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1240397865484259329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239904583092244500,"conversation_id":"1239903486168502272","created_at":1584451263000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"13:21:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"US has been going with droplet precautions, ignoring lessons of SARS 1.0. Bad move","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1239904583092244483","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239621032199237600,"conversation_id":"1239576265218293761","created_at":1584383659000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"18:34:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"I think US medical staff are pretty familiar with the false negative issue. Flu test also has a high false neg rate","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1239621032199237634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239377622209040400,"conversation_id":"1239372245211811846","created_at":1584325626000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"02:27:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Interesting map. How are you defining \"required ventilator support\"? Suggests large areas of the country are hundreds of miles from a facility capable of providing advanced ICU support","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1239377622209040384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238570053659918300,"conversation_id":"1238570053659918349","created_at":1584133086000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"20:58:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":390731779,"username":"statesdj","name":"David States","place":"","tweet":"Pro tip for people working at home and doing a lot of videoconferencing for the foreseeable future:\n\nPut a desk lamp with a bright warm white bulb behind your monitor. Reflects off the wall and gives a nice uniform light. Warm white makes you look friendly and healthy","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1238570053659918349","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"390731779","username":"statesdj"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
