{"id":1240726510157381600,"conversation_id":"1240717862140030976","created_at":1584647226000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"19:47:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"Addendum: caveat to earlier tweet, SDM makes sense for evidence suggesting very probable benefit *and* large effect size, in context where evidence is low quality or insufficient to meet threshold of proof. \n\nReally important to weigh full benefit/harms with pts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1240726510157381637","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240720078032834600,"conversation_id":"1240717862140030976","created_at":1584645692000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"19:21:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"4/ Of the paper itself, IMO we should still approach results skeptically due to open label design and other concerns. But hopefully more data will clarify.\n\n/End","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1240720078032834565","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240719826659815400,"conversation_id":"1240717862140030976","created_at":1584645632000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"19:20:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"3/ Second: it's very true that Tx for viruses have failed in the past. But we have to remember that most viruses don't cause mortality. If a drug reduced mortality, it might be very hard to detect the effect. \n\nThus, those same Tx failures may succeed with covid19.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1240719826659815426","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240719386610196500,"conversation_id":"1240717862140030976","created_at":1584645527000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"19:18:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"2/ First the Fauci quote. Of course, we should not offer therapy without any evidence. But we can have evidence towards proof w/o meeting threshold of proof.\n\nWhen we have probable supportive evidence, but insufficient for proof, it's reasonable to offer therapy w/ SDM.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1240719386610196487","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240678809122283500,"conversation_id":"1240678809122283522","created_at":1584635853000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"16:37:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"\"You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.\"\n\n-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1240678809122283522","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239917562533679000,"conversation_id":"1239917562533679104","created_at":1584454358000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"14:12:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"\"Even if an obstacle should arise, action makes it a new source of exercise\"\n- Pierre Hadot","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1239917562533679104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239573871172477000,"conversation_id":"1239573871172476929","created_at":1584372415000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"15:26:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"\"I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.\"\n\nNelson Mandela","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1239573871172476929","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239548316167352300,"conversation_id":"1239548316167352320","created_at":1584366322000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"13:45:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"We need HIPAA and consent be waived for COVID case data.\n\nBlanket, simple click through Data Use Agreement from NIH or some other arbiter.\n\nGiven extraordinary circumstances, we need to act now to share data and make informed decisions. \n\n#covid19opendata","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":["#covid19opendata"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1239548316167352320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239311434477195300,"conversation_id":"1239310374912045058","created_at":1584309845000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"22:04:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"We must all act per our duty. Whatever change happens, we should remember that the quality of the day is colored by the nature of our thoughts. And that is an outcome in each of our grasps.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1239311434477195268","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239310374912045000,"conversation_id":"1239310374912045058","created_at":1584309593000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"21:59:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"\"The universe is change; our life is what our thoughts make it.\" - Marcus Aurelius","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1239310374912045058","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237564435767517200,"conversation_id":"1237564426816872448","created_at":1583893328000,"date":"2020-03-11","time":"02:22:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"7/ Interpreting the evidence depends on our modeling of the collider.\n\nDespite less testing, Japan data may still reliably measure effectiveness of school closure. \n\nBecause of less testing, Coronavirus outbreaks association with temperature remains uncertain. \n\n/End","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1237564435767517185","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237222529175105500,"conversation_id":"1237222524267778049","created_at":1583811812000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"03:43:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"7/ The challenge of diagnosing COVID19 remains. \n\nIt seems based on current evidence, that simple heuristics using symptoms (or absence of symptoms) alone will be insufficient to credibly diagnose or exclude the disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1237222529175105536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237222527694446600,"conversation_id":"1237222524267778049","created_at":1583811811000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"03:43:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"5/ However, by cleverly modeled time-series data from screening process, the study was able to estimate asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%–20.2%). \n\nCritically, this estimate is not age adjusted, and represents only a small sample (634 cases, avg age ~60) .","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1237222527694446592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237222526155194400,"conversation_id":"1237222524267778049","created_at":1583811811000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"03:43:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"3/ Unfortunately case series dont help establish prevalence of asymptomatic carriers. \n\nHow common are these individuals with seemingly asymptomatic or limited upper respiratory infection? Does it skew to a younger age range? etc.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1237222526155194369","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236851888076791800,"conversation_id":"1236851879822401536","created_at":1583723444000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"03:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"8/ Either way, I think we should be cautious to make any strong assumptions about potential asymptomatic infected patients, and understand limits of our current models and reported CFRs. \n\nTheir are still a lot of plausible potential outcomes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1236851888076791808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236851887346942000,"conversation_id":"1236851879822401536","created_at":1583723444000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"03:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"7/ We should keep in mind that evidence is growing, and our conclusions may change. \n\nWhat is the follow-up data on the diamond princess cases? Do asymptomatic individuals later develop symptoms? Is the WHO surveillance data reliable? Is their other surveillance data? etc","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1236851887346941953","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232314486737866800,"conversation_id":"1232313532206612480","created_at":1582641643000,"date":"2020-02-25","time":"14:40:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"6/ This is a great study, and I am excited about the prospect of digital interventions for ADHD.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1232314486737866752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232313564435636200,"conversation_id":"1232313532206612480","created_at":1582641423000,"date":"2020-02-25","time":"14:37:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":32283096,"username":"raj_mehta","name":"Raj Mehta, MD","place":"","tweet":"5/ Reporting outcomes with an arbitrary cut-off can give the appearance of \"responders\" vs \"non-responders\".  Why not just report effect size of intervention for each outcome?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/raj_mehta/status/1232313564435636224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"32283096","username":"raj_mehta"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272959921634541600,"conversation_id":"1272959913854148611","created_at":1592332270000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"18:31:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It would be great if we could predict months into the future, but any model attempting that must forecast #COVID19 transmission patterns, human behavior and political decision-making. That's a tall order given our limited understanding and ability to predict any of these.\n\n5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1272959921634541569","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272959919935930400,"conversation_id":"1272959913854148611","created_at":1592332270000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"18:31:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"I've seen some skepticism voiced about the utility of #COVID19 forecast models. However, I continue to believe that we are better off with these predictions in hand. Our crystal ball can't yet see months into the future, but 1-4 weeks out our forecasts are accurate.\n\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1272959919935930369","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270338573615739000,"conversation_id":"1270338569291390976","created_at":1591707292000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"12:54:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It is likely that headlines touting \"asymptomatic transmission of #COVID19 is rare\" will be interpreted as \"if I am symptom-free I can't infect others\" which is a wrong belief and could lead to dangerous behavior. \n\nJournalists: please report carefully on this!\n\n3/3","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1270338573615738882","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267898820546920400,"conversation_id":"1267898805845987329","created_at":1591125609000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"19:20:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It continues to be vitally important to monitor multiple models, as they each rely on different data sources and methodologies for detecting changes in the growth of new COVID-19 cases.\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1267898820546920449","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267898814674935800,"conversation_id":"1267898805845987329","created_at":1591125608000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"19:20:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"We are watching closely with the rest of the world to see whether the relaxation of social distancing measures as well as the ongoing protests in the US will lead to increased transmission in many locations. \n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1267898814674935809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265402685429334000,"conversation_id":"1265402674490609664","created_at":1590530484000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"22:01:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"This work does not endorse decisions about re-opening one way or another. Figuring out how to balance continued illness with the need for economic recovery is above the paygrade of any of these models. But it is an important societal conversation we must continue to have.\n8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1265402685429334016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265402683017629700,"conversation_id":"1265402674490609664","created_at":1590530484000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"22:01:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It is not immediately apparent to me which models are \"right\" or more \"trustworthy\" here. We are reopening society all over the country. This will impact trends in observed cases and deaths over the coming weeks. But there are not a lot of data to train these models on.\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1265402683017629699","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265402677065900000,"conversation_id":"1265402674490609664","created_at":1590530482000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"22:01:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"At this critical juncture, when many states are making decisions to loosen restrictions on society, the individual #COVID19 models are giving mixed messages about what comes next at the state-level as they struggle to make sense of available data.\n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1265402677065900034","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265402676071760000,"conversation_id":"1265402674490609664","created_at":1590530482000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"22:01:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"The ensemble says that by June 20 there is a 10% chance of seeing fewer than ~117K cumulative #COVID19 deaths in the US and a 10% chance of seeing more than ~130K.\n2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1265402676071759873","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262853719210819600,"conversation_id":"1262853715641413634","created_at":1589922764000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:12:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Furthermore, the model thinks that by June 13 there is a 10% chance of seeing fewer than ~107K cumulative #COVID19 deaths in the US and a 10% chance of seeing more than ~121K.\n\n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1262853719210819584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260279322633478100,"conversation_id":"1260279312646799361","created_at":1589308980000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"18:43:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"At least 4 groups in the ensemble use information on current state-level social-distancing policies in their forecast model. Other models account for these policies implicitly, with assumptions about how the  rate of new cases and deaths will change over coming weeks.\n\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1260279322633478144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257740032464556000,"conversation_id":"1257740028635222018","created_at":1588703566000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"18:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Today marks the 3rd week that we've released ensemble forecasts of cumulative #COVID19 deaths. For now we are using an equal-weighted average of available models. We are quickly moving towards estimating weights for each model as we learn more about their accuracy. Stay tuned.\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1257740032464556032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255967068635172900,"conversation_id":"1255967062922493958","created_at":1588280858000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"21:07:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Prediction is hard, and the outlook for the near future continues to be fairly grim, even if the rate of new #COVID  deaths is slowing. To be a critical consumer of these models, you have to be looking at more than just one.\n\n5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":["#covid"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1255967068635172864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255601058249879600,"conversation_id":"1255601052272996353","created_at":1588193594000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"20:53:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It has been more difficult than we thought to build an ensemble of these models, as different models forecast different outcomes and for different locations. Currently, we take an equal-weighted average of models that forecast 1-4 week ahead cumulative deaths for a location.\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1255601058249879553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251225898185097200,"conversation_id":"1251225882481635328","created_at":1587150475000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:07:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"We are going to try our best to stay out of the fray of critiquing specific models, and let the data do the talking from here on out. We are working on building smart adaptive statistical ensemble approaches that will let the data decide how to best combine models.\n11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1251225898185097216","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251225896817700900,"conversation_id":"1251225882481635328","created_at":1587150475000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:07:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"This collaboration builds on the hard work and positive, open-science attitudes of many research groups. It takes bravery to make public predictions right now. Not risk-your-family's-health courage that healthcare workers show everyday (🙏🏽❤️), but bravery nonetheless.\n10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1251225896817700867","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251225887317639200,"conversation_id":"1251225882481635328","created_at":1587150472000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:07:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"For now the #COVID19 forecast hub displays 4-week ahead forecasts of cumulative deaths in the US and by state. We have 9 models from 5 teams, with more on the way. We are hoping to add additional predictions on cases and hospitalizations in coming days and weeks. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1251225887317639169","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248424257052225500,"conversation_id":"1248424237330608137","created_at":1586482512000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"01:35:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"There are bright spots amidst the crush of tragic data right now, but I think a key storyline right now from mass media needs to be that the future of #COVID19 in the US and globally is very uncertain. \n10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1248424257052225539","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248424250878263300,"conversation_id":"1248424237330608137","created_at":1586482510000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"01:35:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"These two #COVID19 models, both from very well-respected academic groups, are complete odds with one another. Their prediction intervals barely overlap! It highlights for me how little we really know about what will happen in the coming weeks. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1248424250878263304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248424249150210000,"conversation_id":"1248424237330608137","created_at":1586482510000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"01:35:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"The IHME model projections are conditional on \"full social distancing\" continuing through May 2020, which at this point seems like a reasonable assumption, at least through early May.  6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1248424249150210051","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248424242334462000,"conversation_id":"1248424237330608137","created_at":1586482508000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"01:35:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"On the whole, short-term accuracy over the limited sample size of the last few weeks seems to be not all that bad, but there are pretty major differences in the long-term outlook of these models. I'm going to run just a quick back-of-the-envelope comparison of two models. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1248424242334461953","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248424237330608000,"conversation_id":"1248424237330608137","created_at":1586482507000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"01:35:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"I'm appreciative of the hard work and courage of teams who have put out public #COVID19 forecasts. This outbreak has been really hard to predict from the outset. There is so much that we don't know about how all of this will unfold in coming weeks and months. 1/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":68,"likes_count":175,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1248424237330608137","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243591975900721200,"conversation_id":"1243591963837902849","created_at":1585330406000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"17:33:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Many thanks to everyone working in hospitals and clinics, and federal, state, and local health departments who help collect these data and, more importantly, continue to tirelessly push towards a future where we can be less worried about #COVID19. 🙏🏽❤️\n8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243591975900721153","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243591974504083500,"conversation_id":"1243591963837902849","created_at":1585330406000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"17:33:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"We have yet to tease apart detailed results from specific states, or look at how these results might be impacted by ongoing intervention efforts. These data are already a week old (released today on schedule). We are looking into extending this analysis to more real-time data.\n7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243591974504083458","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243591973224792000,"conversation_id":"1243591963837902849","created_at":1585330405000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"17:33:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"It is really important to NOT interpret these results as definitive evidence that #COVID19 is worse in some places than others. However, we do think that these results could be used to guide investigations using direct data-collection mechanisms, such as testing.\n6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243591973224792076","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243591968560754700,"conversation_id":"1243591963837902849","created_at":1585330404000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"17:33:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"So our conclusions here must be interpreted very carefully and and with the understanding that the data we are monitoring could be quite sensitive to increasing public awareness of #COVID19, as we have seen in the last few weeks.\n4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243591968560754694","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243591967361114000,"conversation_id":"1243591963837902849","created_at":1585330404000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"17:33:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"The challenge is that these data are very sensitive to external factors. If there are changes in care-seeking behavior, these could show up as abnormal patterns in the ILI data. Similarly if there are changes in protocols around who is tested for flu. \n3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243591967361114112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243562028440137700,"conversation_id":"1243562027047702532","created_at":1585323266000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"15:34:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"They reviewed our code for accuracy and to make sure they understood our analyses (most peer-reviewed journals don't do this.) And they have quickly responded to minor comments from us about better and more accurate ways to report the results. 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1243562028440137732","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241174590245810200,"conversation_id":"1241174589079572480","created_at":1584754056000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"01:27:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"These reports are not peer-reviewed (we will, when we find time to breathe again, submit a version of this to a journal). For now, we continue to find the report to give us useful intuition about this VERY rapidly changing situation. \n2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1241174590245810176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240453408542396400,"conversation_id":"1240453404956262401","created_at":1584582113000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:41:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"We really need to think creatively, and quickly, about ways to make this better without requiring major societal disruption for months on end. I'm not sure the current #COVID19 models are capturing fully the substantial non-medical costs of those interventions. 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1240453408542396421","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240453407422505000,"conversation_id":"1240453404956262401","created_at":1584582113000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:41:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"The extremes of social distancing are really hard on everyone. Hard economically, socially, psychologically. And extra difficult for those who are in precarious socio-economic situations. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1240453407422504960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240453406508155000,"conversation_id":"1240453404956262401","created_at":1584582113000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"01:41:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Speaking from a personal perspective, I have already isolated with my family for two weeks (incl. 2 kids, 7&10 yrs old) after having traveled to Italy in late February and now doing the same again after returning to the US from Germany. 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1240453406508154880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240379295077449700,"conversation_id":"1240379293462679553","created_at":1584564443000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"20:47:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"A few weeks ago, I thought it plausible that there might be 100K+ undetected #COVID19 infections. We are uncertain about many things with this outbreak, the surveillance, clinical and genomic evidence is pointing to a smaller, but substantial and rising number in the US. 2/x","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1240379295077449728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240379293462679600,"conversation_id":"1240379293462679553","created_at":1584564443000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"20:47:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"I've been struck at the growing consensus in the infectious disease modeling community in the belief that there are tens of thousands of infections with #SARSCoV2 (the virus that causes #COVID19 ) in the US right now. 1/x","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":["#sarscov2","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1240379293462679553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236033479701418000,"conversation_id":"1236033471186898944","created_at":1583528320000,"date":"2020-03-06","time":"20:58:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Thanks to all the public health folks working on the front lines of this outbreak, who are collecting these data, keeping people healthy, and making it possible to get these indirect glimpses into what is happening out there. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1236033479701417985","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236033472726212600,"conversation_id":"1236033471186898944","created_at":1583528318000,"date":"2020-03-06","time":"20:58:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"This is a tricky analysis to interpret because ILI is a composite measure, capturing infections with many different respiratory pathogens. Nothing here should be seen as definitive, but the reach of ILINet data is wide, and we have 23 years of data to compare to. 2/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1236033472726212610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235581017857167400,"conversation_id":"1235581011641032705","created_at":1583420445000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"15:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"This week's survey had 17 experts respond. Next week, we plan on inviting many more. We are still figuring out how to best do this. Turns out asking good questions is hard. And putting together the system to efficiently aggregate responses is not trivial. 5/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1235581017857167360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235581016317845500,"conversation_id":"1235581011641032705","created_at":1583420444000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"15:00:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Takeaway #3:\n\nExperts expect 19 states in the US to have confirmed #COVID19 cases by Monday, March 9th (25th – 75th percentile: 16 - 25). 4/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1235581016317845505","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235581014950453200,"conversation_id":"1235581011641032705","created_at":1583420444000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"15:00:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Takeaway #2 from our expert survey:\n\nExperts expect to see a quick increase in the number of confirmed #COVID19 cases by CDC. Experts forecast a median of 183 confirmed cases to be reported by CDC on March 9th (25th-75th %ile: 114-460). \n\nBy March 16th, 599 cases (214-1553). 3/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1235581014950453248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235581013465723000,"conversation_id":"1235581011641032705","created_at":1583420444000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"15:00:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Takeaway #1 from our expert survey:\n\nOnly a small fraction of all #COVID19 cases are likely being identified in the US. Consensus was that something between 1 in 15 to 1 in 4 cases were confirmed by CDC as of Monday. Some thought as few as 1 in 1000 had been confirmed. 2/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1235581013465722882","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1225335302195159000,"conversation_id":"1225335296159514624","created_at":1580977676000,"date":"2020-02-06","time":"08:27:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"There is always power in simple analyses. But, in the absence of a complex model, adding some additional possible explanations for the observed deviations from the expectation of this simple model could provide quite valuable additional context. (4/4)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1225335302195159040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1225335300852981800,"conversation_id":"1225335296159514624","created_at":1580977676000,"date":"2020-02-06","time":"08:27:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Also, Thailand is such an outlier in terms of flight volume, that drawing strong inference about the performance of its surveillance system, with so few data points between it and the next nearest country seems to be an overly strong extrapolation. (3/4)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1225335300852981760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1225335298906820600,"conversation_id":"1225335296159514624","created_at":1580977675000,"date":"2020-02-06","time":"08:27:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"The association btw flights/cases is represented by a constant in this model, the same for all countries. But travelers go places for quite different reasons (business trip to Germany vs vacation in Thailand). One type of trip might be more likely cancelled during outbreak. (2/4)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1225335298906820610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221470745458548700,"conversation_id":"1221470740513542144","created_at":1580056294000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"16:31:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"Finally, the public ILI data is quite a bit delayed, complicating attempts to make interpretations in real-time. \n(4/4)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1221470745458548737","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221470744263250000,"conversation_id":"1221470740513542144","created_at":1580056293000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"16:31:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"And media exposure could increase the number of people seeking care for ILI, which could also make any real signal harder to detect. (3/x)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1221470744263249930","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221470742891634700,"conversation_id":"1221470740513542144","created_at":1580056293000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"16:31:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":444852917,"username":"reichlab","name":"Nicholas G. Reich","place":"","tweet":"However, great care should be taken in the interpretation here, as our current results do not rule out any possibilities about whether #2019nCoV is present (above and beyond the few official reported cases) in the US at the time of the most recent data reporting or not. (2/x)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":["#2019ncov"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/reichlab/status/1221470742891634688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"444852917","username":"reichlab"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272899349572395000,"conversation_id":"1272899341150232576","created_at":1592317828000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"14:30:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1672043576,"username":"rozeggo","name":"Dr Roz Eggo","place":"","tweet":"As always, limitations:\n- assume mixing between age groups matches the mixing matrices - some measured, some synthetic in this paper\n- other interventions may change mixing\n- comorbidities may change the relationship between age and clinical symptoms\n- + others!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rozeggo/status/1272899349572395012","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1672043576","username":"rozeggo"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272816688065626000,"conversation_id":"1272816677139382274","created_at":1592298120000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"09:02:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1672043576,"username":"rozeggo","name":"Dr Roz Eggo","place":"","tweet":"These estimates can be used to: \n- help with pandemic planning\n- developing shielding strategies \n- in the future, prioritising vaccines. \nThe main goal was to quantify how many are at risk of severe outcomes to provide evidence for decision-making.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rozeggo/status/1272816688065626112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1672043576","username":"rozeggo"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272816686811537400,"conversation_id":"1272816677139382274","created_at":1592298120000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"09:02:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1672043576,"username":"rozeggo","name":"Dr Roz Eggo","place":"","tweet":"Limitations (always): \n- Included underlying conditions but not other risks e.g. smoking, obesity\n- correction for multimorbidity uses data from UK and China\n- estimates for prevalence of conditions are modelled (by the GBD)\n- variation in within a country is not captured","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rozeggo/status/1272816686811537414","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1672043576","username":"rozeggo"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244689100428447700,"conversation_id":"1244664650425348099","created_at":1585591981000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"18:13:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1672043576,"username":"rozeggo","name":"Dr Roz Eggo","place":"","tweet":"This one is open to UK/EU applicants. Sorry that this wasn't in the initial tweet.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rozeggo/status/1244689100428447744","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1672043576","username":"rozeggo"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260658786684907500,"conversation_id":"1260657164596555777","created_at":1589399451000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"19:50:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"CD4+ T cells differentiate into “effector” cells depending on the inflammatory milieu, leading to secretion of specific cytokines: Th1 cells secrete IFNg, Th17 cells secrete IL-17, Tregs secrete IL-10. Th1 & Th17 cells fight infection and Tregs help resolve inflammation.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1260658786684907520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259476134116446200,"conversation_id":"1259470274396897288","created_at":1589117484000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"13:31:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"These observations underscore the \"double-edge sword\" of the immune response in COVID-19: early in SARS-CoV-2 infection myeloid cells are important in clearing virus and later myeloid cells *may* cause excessive inflammation and exacerbate tissue damage.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1259476134116446213","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259473153417515000,"conversation_id":"1259470274396897288","created_at":1589116774000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"13:19:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"SARS-CoV-2 mainly infects the epithelial and macrophage subsets in BAL, with indirect effects on naive CD4+ T cells, NK cells, neutrophils, monocytes/monocyte-derived macrophages.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1259473153417515010","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258425644138053600,"conversation_id":"1258424900060172289","created_at":1588867028000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"15:57:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Article states \"Genetic sequencing showed some patients have gene variants associated with a hyperactive immune response to viral infections, he said, yielding one possible clue into why some people develop serious complications, though such evidence is preliminary.\" \n\nHmmm....🤔","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1258425644138053634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255446410079731700,"conversation_id":"1255445309754351618","created_at":1588156723000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"10:38:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"“Some commentators have propagated a dichotomy in which we can only improve public health through a total shutdown of the economy, and we can only improve the economy—in the near term—by sacrificing public health. This dichotomy is false.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1255446410079731714","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254479199299141600,"conversation_id":"1254477298365054976","created_at":1587926122000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"18:35:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Type 1 IFNs are released from a cell and bind to interferon receptors on a variety of cells, including macrophages, and activate STAT1 to turn on “interferon-stimulated genes” (or ISGs). IFNs also up-regulate antigen presentation by increasing the expression of MHC.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1254479199299141633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251604882337005600,"conversation_id":"1251602966966145028","created_at":1587240832000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"20:13:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Observational trials are also useful, especially if safety and translational endpoints are the primary outcome. For example: test if myeloid directed therapies reduce IL6 and inflammatory cytokines in the setting of moderate disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1251604882337005575","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251604519277953000,"conversation_id":"1251602966966145028","created_at":1587240745000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"20:12:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"These observations highlight a challenge in understanding the maladaptive immune response in COVID-19 – and how to prevent/treat the important transition point in COVID-19: what is a cause and what is a consequence?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1251604519277953029","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248061661078073300,"conversation_id":"1248061661078073347","created_at":1586396062000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"01:34:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Me to my 84 y/o dad: are you being safe? staying at home? wearing a mask?\n\nhim: yes - every time we go out we lie to you about it\n\nme: 😠","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1248061661078073347","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247703207989649400,"conversation_id":"1247699657331019776","created_at":1586310600000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"01:50:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Finally, repurposed drugs will not minimize the importance of public health measures such as physical distancing, hand washing, and masks.  These measures will remain our frontline defense against the virus in the near-term.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1247703207989649412","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247702803490971600,"conversation_id":"1247699657331019776","created_at":1586310504000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"01:48:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"A disadvantage of repurposed drugs over those tailored to the virus is that repurposed drugs are very unlikely to cure disease. Either a vaccine and/or herd immunity is required to overcome the coronavirus pandemic. (Sadly, both will take time.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1247702803490971649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247702564319174700,"conversation_id":"1247699657331019776","created_at":1586310447000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"01:47:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"An advantage of repurposed drugs over those tailored to the virus itself is that repurposed drugs are available now - often with sufficient clinical supply to meet demand if RCTs are successful - whereas novel therapies will take at least a year to develop de novo.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1247702564319174661","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247701956870668300,"conversation_id":"1247699657331019776","created_at":1586310302000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"01:45:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Many ongoing trials are small, observational studies. Appropriately powered, randomized control trials (RCT) will be required to definitively demonstrate repurposed drugs are safe and effective – a difficult but essential task in the midst of a crisis. \n\nRCTs are essential!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1247701956870668288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247700029638393900,"conversation_id":"1247699657331019776","created_at":1586309842000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"01:37:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"To start, there is a lot that is *not* known about how the immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, and how the immune system evolves during the course of the disease, COVID-19. We know a little, however, which helps with drug repurposing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1247700029638393857","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243907633112912000,"conversation_id":"1243904792197500930","created_at":1585405665000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"14:27:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Two final points about repurposing approved meds for COVID-19: (1) clinical trials must be practical, given the challenges that health care providers face; and (2) drug supply must be available to meet demands in the event of a positive study.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1243907633112911873","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243906076837380000,"conversation_id":"1243904792197500930","created_at":1585405294000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"14:21:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Vaccines work at the very beginning to prevent infection. As vaccines need to be tailored to the virus itself, vaccines are not candidates for drug repurposing and will not be further discussed here.  There is exciting progress with mRNA vaccines.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1243906076837380096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739937604604000,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888846000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:54:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Finally, a disclaimer: like many, I am learning rapidly in this area. I am not a SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 expert. The information here should not be used to guide clinical decisions. I wrote this thread to encourage discussion on an important topic.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739937604603906","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739810743767000,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888815000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:53:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"But we need more data. We know surprisingly little beyond correlative findings in relatively small samples of COVID-19 patients.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739810743767040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739713385545700,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888792000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:53:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"It is worth noting that anti-IL6 therapy has proven beneficial in CAR-T studies, which may have a similar type of pathogenesis.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739713385545729","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739539166703600,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888751000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:52:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"An open-label trial with an anti-IL-6 therapy in 21 patients with severe and critical COVID-19 demonstrated suggestive evidence of clinical benefit: symptoms, hypoxygenmia, and CT opacity changes were improved immediately after treatment. chinaXiv:202003.00026v1","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739539166703617","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739389643845600,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888715000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:51:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Late interventions to *treat* cytokine storm include therapies that directly inhibit key inflammatory cytokines (e.g., anti-IL6), inhibit downstream signaling of these cytokines (e.g., JAK inhibitors), and prevent further accumulation of IMMs (which secrete cytokines/chemokines).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739389643845633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241739270987145200,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888687000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:51:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Based on data above, early interventions to *prevent* cytokine storm include direct acting anti-virals that suppress viral replication, antibodies against the virus, interferon (all to reduce viral load) and/or therapeutics that prevent cellular infection/spread (eg, ACE2 decoy).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241739270987145217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241736425755852800,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584888008000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:40:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Coronaviruses infecting humans can be classified into low pathogenic hCoVs, which infect the upper respiratory tract, and highly pathogenic CoVs (SARS-CoV [~10% mortality], MERS-CoV [~35% mortality]), which infect the lower resp tract. I will focus on the highly pathogenic CoVs.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241736425755852802","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241736087028076500,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584887928000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:38:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"What is the nature of the maladaptive inflammatory response? A picture is emerging, based on (1) related coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS), (2) early evidence from SARS-CoV2/COVID19, and (2) related conditions (e.g., cytokine storm from CAR-T). Here I focus on the first two.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241736087028076544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241735984359911400,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584887903000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:38:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"So the challenge is: how does the immune system effectively control the infection early in the clinical course but not lose control in the later stages of disease, resulting in a maladaptive immune response causing ARDS and other complications?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241735984359911426","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241735288378003500,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584887737000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:35:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"In most individuals, the immune system behaves nicely – a civilized aperitif cocktail. However, in extreme cases the immune system goes berserk – think “Animal House” – and does more damage than the virus itself.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241735288378003457","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241735098992599000,"conversation_id":"1241734769681084416","created_at":1584887692000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"14:34:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"The first job of the immune system is to fight the virus itself. Unfortunately, our immune system has never seen SARS-CoV2 before, so it doesn’t quite know how to behave – like someone drinking alcohol for the first time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1241735098992599040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240834088250028000,"conversation_id":"1240834088250028033","created_at":1584672874000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"02:54:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Does anyone remember when we debated the significant of 140 vs 280 character limits on Twitter? Oh how times have changed. (I think most of us now like a few additional characters to make our points on Twitter.) #SARSCoV2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1240834088250028033","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239874389992185900,"conversation_id":"1239874389992185856","created_at":1584444064000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"11:21:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"Everything I predict about COVID19 seems to happen 10x faster...and will likely last 10x as long.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1239874389992185856","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238801230400491500,"conversation_id":"1238801230400491520","created_at":1584188203000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"12:16:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"For all the social media references to “going viral”, I am surprised by how *few* people actually understand - and can explain / visualize - what it means to go viral!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1238801230400491520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237914949533544400,"conversation_id":"1237906471427465216","created_at":1583976897000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"01:34:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":931450722,"username":"rplenge","name":"Robert Plenge","place":"","tweet":"The speech was’t great but we all need to rise above politics right now. We are more than our President. We are a population of 330M creative, ingenious, & resilient people. We need to band together and get through this. And we will...but it will be hard.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/rplenge/status/1237914949533544448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"931450722","username":"rplenge"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252877609802686500,"conversation_id":"1252874893705674759","created_at":1587544274000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"08:31:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":11783582,"username":"sarahcobey","name":"Sarah Cobey","place":"","tweet":"And that’s kind of how we get anywhere in science.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/sarahcobey/status/1252877609802686464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"11783582","username":"sarahcobey"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
