{"id":1244307356474921000,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500966000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The article concludes by arguing for a war-like response, which I fully agree with. We need a coordinated strategy. We need mass mobilization from diverse sectors. Importantly, we need a plan that is driven by on-the-ground data on what works and what doesn't!\n\nEnd","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307356474920960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307355086487600,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500966000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Each government's response, at the national or local level, is like a natural experiment. For those ahead of us in their trajectory, we can see quickly what has worked and what hasn't. Clearly, a weak or ineffective response can have dangerous consequences.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307355086487552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307354138677200,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500965000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some of the key features of Veneto's response:\n- Extensive contact tracing and testing.\n- Emphasis on home diagnosis and care, even collecting samples for testing from a patient's home.\n- Protection of health-care workers, elderly workers, pharmacists, cashiers, etc.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307354138677250","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307350841749500,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500965000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The most effective responses are coordinated at the highest levels, and they are multi-pronged (distancing PLUS testing PLUS tracing PLUS effective communication to the public). See China and South Korea as examples.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307350841749506","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307349663289300,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500964000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The approach the Italian government initially took was piecemeal, issuing gradually increased restrictions that expanded over time. The problem? This reactive approach is too slow for the speed of the virus. Plus, people fled the lockdown areas, bringing the virus with them.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307349663289344","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307347431985200,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500964000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The article discusses the cognitive biases that plague decision-makers. Though scientists warned of the dangers, policymakers and the public were initially skeptical. The thing about exponential growth is that things look okay until they aren't, and then it is too late.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307347431985153","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244307346106593300,"conversation_id":"1244307344693100551","created_at":1585500964000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"16:56:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Italy had the bad fortune of being one of the earliest countries impacted by #COVID19. Now the country is in a state of crisis. Why is the well-equipped Italian healthcare system suffering? And are we now repeating the same errors that led them here?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1244307346106593280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243967232910282800,"conversation_id":"1243966148112195584","created_at":1585419874000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"18:24:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"It’s also worth remembering that these are not the only tools in our toolbox. China has had good success with portable CT scanners, which may have better early sensitivity than the lab tests.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1243967232910282755","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243358458977480700,"conversation_id":"1243355339484872704","created_at":1585274731000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"02:05:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Interestingly, only 6% (8/129) were infected but exhibited no symptoms throughout. So not much evidence for that big asymptomatic part of the iceberg. Cases with fever were much more infectious. And cases with expectoration were most infectious of all. 😷","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1243358458977480706","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243357148328759300,"conversation_id":"1243355339484872704","created_at":1585274419000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"02:00:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some big takeaways. Transmission in households is key. Transmission on public transportation, not so much. 129 infected contacts detected = 2.6% of all followed. Of these, 44% had mild or asymptomatic illness (no radiological alterations); 52% moderate; 4% severe/critical.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1243357148328759299","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242984003315138600,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185454000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Models are incredibly sophisticated and valuable tools, but they have limitations. While modelers know these limitations well, the public does not.\n\nSo I hope to see a frank discussion on what we can all do better. Please also chime in with your thoughts below. 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242984003315138560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242984001335431200,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185454000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We also need to remember that there are situations where we don’t need a model to tell us what to do.\n\nI would argue that what we have seen happening in Italy was enough to trigger a swift response, model or no model. 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242984001335431178","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242984000282648600,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185453000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We need “model consumers” (i.e. policy makers, clinicians) to be closely involved in all steps of the process.\n\nI feel like I can tell the difference between models built by modelers only and models where people with on the ground experience have been engaged. 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242984000282648581","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242983998525227000,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185453000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Modeling reports should be supplemented by an accessible, public facing section that highlights the basic model structure, findings, and limitations.\n\nThe limitations part is tough, though, as I don’t think modelers are the best judges of their own models. 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242983998525227009","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242983997313036300,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185453000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So a few thoughts on ways we can do better.\n\nFirst, modelers cannot absolve themselves of responsibility to get the public messaging right. Effective science communication is crucial.\n\nThe media may misinterpret, but then every effort needs to be made to correct the record. 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242983997313036288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242983995207540700,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185452000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some of us try to offer public “peer review,” but it necessarily trails behind the headlines.\n\nFor example, pointing out that a model evaluated closing schools but not contact tracing. Or that there is wide uncertainty in a given parameter. 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242983995207540738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242983994087673900,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185452000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Lately, technical reports are immediately picked up by the media, with sensationalized headlines.\n\nThis leaves the public in the lurch. Many are skeptical of the media, but they don’t know how to dissect a model and its assumptions to form their own conclusions. 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242983994087673857","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242983992984359000,"conversation_id":"1242983979172724738","created_at":1585185452000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"01:17:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"With everyone’s attention pointed at models, there is greater responsibility to effectively communicate model findings, particularly where they impact policy decisions.\n\nWe also need to effectively communicate the limitations of models. This, I feel, has been lacking. 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242983992984358913","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242557656553980000,"conversation_id":"1242557652217090058","created_at":1585083805000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"21:03:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Thus, the results are sensitive to the value of ρ. The authors conclude that what we urgently need is serological testing to better establish ρ.\n\nSo please be cautious when interpreting headlines, particularly where those headlines may inform policy decisions. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242557656553979909","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242557655652147200,"conversation_id":"1242557652217090058","created_at":1585083805000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"21:03:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A key sentence:\n\n\"Overall, these results underscore the dependence of the inferred epidemic curve on the assumed fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease (ρ) showing significant population level immunity accruing by mid March in the UK as ρ is decreased.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242557655652147206","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242557653735309300,"conversation_id":"1242557652217090058","created_at":1585083804000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"21:03:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"There is an intuitive relationship between this parameter and the level of herd immunity in the population.\n\nFixing the number of observed deaths, if most cases are mild, then we have missed more infections. (Think -- bigger iceberg.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242557653735309315","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242249407069851600,"conversation_id":"1242248376411881472","created_at":1585010313000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"00:38:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I had the same reaction when I first heard about the original UK government strategy.\n\nNamely, doesn’t it put the elderly at *greater* risk to let an epidemic spread throughout the rest of the population?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1242249407069851649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241507145608319000,"conversation_id":"1241507113429610503","created_at":1584833344000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"23:29:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Caveats about these calculations. Done one-handed on iPhone notes app & calculator while holding a baby. Includes eyeball estimates, rounding, small numbers.\n\nBut I hope it provides a useful tutorial on how we evaluate the data to learn something about the epidemiology. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1241507145608318976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241507127967002600,"conversation_id":"1241507113429610503","created_at":1584833340000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"23:29:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The next layer is the one we are most interested in. What is the probability of being hospitalized given infection?\n\nWithout a good understanding of how many people are infected, we can’t directly calculate this.\n\nBut we can use the data to infer *relative* probabilities.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1241507127967002628","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241507126918426600,"conversation_id":"1241507113429610503","created_at":1584833339000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"23:28:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We would need serological (antibody) data to figure out how frequently different age groups are being infected.\n\nWithout this data, we will assume that this probability of infection is similar across age groups for our little example.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1241507126918426626","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241507122363486200,"conversation_id":"1241507113429610503","created_at":1584833338000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"23:28:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The next step is... what is the probability of being infected for each group?\n\nLet’s assume everyone is similarly susceptible (though not everyone develops symptoms).\n\nThen this will depend on who is exposed. Who has multiple roommates? Who is riding the subway?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1241507122363486208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241507114805330000,"conversation_id":"1241507113429610503","created_at":1584833336000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"23:28:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Number of hospitalizations per age group depends on a few key quantities:\n\n(1) Size of the age group (how many people are that age?)\n\n(2) Probability of infection in that age group (how often are you exposed?)\n\n(3) Probability of hospitalization once infected in that age group","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1241507114805329931","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240786289558990800,"conversation_id":"1240786255916470274","created_at":1584661478000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"23:44:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The strategy for #COVID19 will depend on the status of the outbreak when vaccines are ready. Assuming there is still ongoing transmission, it will be more straightforward to run a trial. We must simply place the vaccine in populations at risk and follow them over time. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240786289558990850","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240786287260467200,"conversation_id":"1240786255916470274","created_at":1584661478000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"23:44:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So while work continues on early phase clinical trials for MERS and SARS, we still don’t have a way forward to test efficacy. So there is no clear path towards regulatory approval.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240786287260467200","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240786284433506300,"conversation_id":"1240786255916470274","created_at":1584661477000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"23:44:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"To tell if a vaccine prevents illness, people need to be naturally exposed. SARS isn’t circulating, and MERS outbreaks are very sporadic, frequently due to spillover from the animal reservoir. MERS outbreaks are also short, too short to get a vaccine out in time as a response.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240786284433506305","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089386143944700,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495324000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Countries will need to develop strategies appropriate to their local context, but certainly we have a lot to learn from South Korea. There is opportunity for great innovation, and people from diverse fields can and should contribute. END 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089386143944709","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089384986251300,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495323000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Learning from their 2015 MERS outbreak, they dramatically strengthened their hospital infection prevention and control. So far, there are no reports of infections of COVID-19 among South Korean health care workers. 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089384986251264","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089384038301700,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495323000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"High-risk patients w/ underlying illnesses get priority for hospitalization. Repurposed facilities are used to house and care for the moderately ill. Close contacts with minimal or no symptoms self-quarantine at home for two weeks. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089384038301698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089383107248000,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495323000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"While contact tracing is key to their strategy, when cases surged in February, they focused tracing on a large church cluster. Over 80% of church contacts with symptoms were positive vs. 10% linked to other cases. \n\nThey prioritized resources to maximize detection. 5/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089383107248128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089381945446400,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495323000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For those who test positive, cell phone and credit card data are used to reconstruct movements. Anonymized data is made available on an app to allow others to determine if they were exposed.\n\nCertainly some privacy concerns here, but there may be creative solutions. 4/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089381945446405","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089381073027000,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495322000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The national testing capacity has reached a staggering 15,000 tests per day. There are 43 drive-through testing stations nationwide.\n\nI know we would all like to see this type of capacity in our own countries. 3/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089381073027072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240089379776888800,"conversation_id":"1240089363469471745","created_at":1584495322000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"01:35:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Their strategy focuses on high diagnostic capacity (lots of testing!), contact tracing, and case isolation.\n\nSouth Korea has tested more than 270,000 people. That’s 5200 tests per million inhabitants, versus 72 tests per million in the US. 2/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1240089379776888840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239950363878404000,"conversation_id":"1239948552459223040","created_at":1584462178000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"16:22:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"“If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.”\n\nOf course we want more information, but I would counter that we don’t have the luxury of time here. Waiting feels irresponsible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1239950363878404104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239949529186816000,"conversation_id":"1239948552459223040","created_at":1584461979000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"16:19:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"It’s hard to understand the suggestion that what we are observing might just be a consequence of selection bias. Italy’s healthcare system is collapsing!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1239949529186816001","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238911472115294200,"conversation_id":"1238911429727662081","created_at":1584214487000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"19:34:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So, lots of questions about that last part. What is the actual plan to protect those high risk individuals? I haven’t been able to find a clear description, but that would be critical!\n\nIn reality, we are all so intertwined. I really don’t see how this would work practically.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238911472115294216","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238911468189503500,"conversation_id":"1238911429727662081","created_at":1584214486000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"19:34:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The government would seem to prefer to implement these closures closer to the time of the epidemic peak (projected to occur in May) to avoid “crisis fatigue.” Basically people getting tired of staying home.\n\nIs there evidence that crisis fatigue is a real phenomenon?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238911468189503489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238911464561311700,"conversation_id":"1238911429727662081","created_at":1584214485000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"19:34:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Individuals with mild illness that is laboratory confirmed are similarly advised to stay home for 7 days.\n\nIs this 7 day period supported by data on the duration of viral shedding? It seems short.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238911464561311747","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238911429727662000,"conversation_id":"1238911429727662081","created_at":1584214477000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"19:34:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I would like more clarity on policies in the UK for #COVID19 and supporting evidence from modeling studies, but I am having trouble finding this described outside of media reports.\n\nA thread on what I’ve found.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238911429727662081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238869845082542000,"conversation_id":"1238869845082542080","created_at":1584204562000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"16:49:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Deleted two tweets about UK’s government strategy because I want to gain a better understanding of the actual policy recommendations and supporting evidence. But whatever those are, it is clear there has been a big failure to effectively communicate this strategy to the public.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238869845082542080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518218848981000,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120728000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The impact of a test with poor specificity is that you will need to intervene somehow on all of these false positives (further testing, quarantine), and this has costs. This includes emotional costs since now that person thinks they have COVID19. 11/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518218848980995","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518217561247700,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120728000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Now imagine a test with poor specificity. You could have a (very bad) antibody test that turned up a false positive for everyone who had been infected with a mild coronavirus, like the ones that cause the common cold. 10/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518217561247747","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518212779741200,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120727000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Because RT-PCR measures viral RNA, it would be rare for someone to test positive if they aren't actually infected. It could happen, though, if there were contamination in the lab. In general, RT-PCR is highly specific because there are few FALSE POSITIVES. 7/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518212779741184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518211194339300,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120726000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"SPECIFICITY measures how well we rule out infection for people who are tested but aren't infected. Imagine a nasal swab from someone without SARS-CoV-2 infection. This should come back negative on RT-PCR. Specificity measures how often these come back negative. 6/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518211194339330","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518207683715000,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120725000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"When sensitivity is low, we risk getting FALSE NEGATIVES. These would be swabs from which no virus is detected even though the person is infected. This could occur if the specimen was degraded in some way, virus didn't amplify well, etc. 4/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518207683715072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518205007704000,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120725000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"SENSITIVITY measures how well we can pick up patients with disease. Imagine a nasal swab from someone with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Sensitivity is the probability this sample will test positive. 2/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518205007704064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238518203736903700,"conversation_id":"1238518203736903680","created_at":1584120724000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"17:32:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"EPI 101 thread on sensitivity and specificity, plus its application to #COVID19 screening. For those who want a refresher!\n\nThe way we summarize the accuracy of a test (such as RT-PCR on a #coronavirus throat swab) is with two quantities: sensitivity and specificity. 1/12","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":293,"likes_count":590,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1238518203736903680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237436476260061200,"conversation_id":"1237436472988499969","created_at":1583862821000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"17:53:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some other high priority populations suggested include patients with unexplained respiratory illness at nursing homes and prisons.\n\nSo these are the key points we've come up with. Thoughts?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237436476260061184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237436475534446600,"conversation_id":"1237436472988499969","created_at":1583862820000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"17:53:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"This can be used as sentinel surveillance for early detection of community transmission. We can also track the total numbers of these patients & proportion positive over time.\n\nCan this be used to improve estimation of CFR? Not sure how since it conditions on presenting to ED.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237436475534446592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237436474770980900,"conversation_id":"1237436472988499969","created_at":1583862820000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"17:53:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For surveillance, ideally test all, but likely a subset of, patients presenting to emergency departments with unexplained respiratory illness. Prioritize hospitals in major cities/transportation hubs and in areas w/ high density of elderly adults.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237436474770980866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237183636077785000,"conversation_id":"1237182940280434688","created_at":1583802539000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"01:08:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I invite other surveillance experts to chime in too! I would really value the input. ☺️","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237183636077785089","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237136967772582000,"conversation_id":"1237121538110955526","created_at":1583791412000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"22:03:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I’ll elaborate a little more. Say you are a state health department. Given some constraints on numbers of tests, who should you be testing? (Could be a random sample.) And how are these test results being used to inform policy?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237136967772581898","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237121538110955500,"conversation_id":"1237121538110955526","created_at":1583787733000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"21:02:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Hi #epitwitter. I would like to compile info about optimized #COVID19 testing strategies for surveillance to inform public health policy. Would folks be able to help me identify some strategies currently in use or being considered in different areas?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":["#epitwitter","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237121538110955526","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066899487424500,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774707000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So when we see a statistic that 7% of tests are positive, it says something about the prevalence, but it probably says more about who is receiving the testing. It suggests overly narrow testing criteria that result in many cases being missed. END 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":127,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066899487424514","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066898640158700,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774706000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Conversely, when we increase SPECIFICITY (use narrow criteria), this proportion will INCREASE. This is because we end up using dramatically fewer tests in only the highest risk group. This is good for the cost of testing, but bad for containment efforts. 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066898640158721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066897809645600,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774706000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"If we increase SENSITIVITY (cast a wide net), this proportion will DECREASE. This is not immediately obvious because the numerator will increase *slightly,* but it will be swamped by a large increase in the denominator corresponding to a lot more testing being done. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066897809645568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066895205023700,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774706000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Because of lack of widespread availability of SARS-CoV-2 tests, many have criticized the overly narrow testing criteria in use (e.g. travel history required). This corresponds to high SPECIFICITY. Relatively few people will be eligible for testing. 4/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066895205023745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066892671582200,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774705000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We can think of being eligible for testing as a type of test itself. Just like how case definitions have “sensitivity” and “specificity,” guidelines for testing also have sensitivity and specificity.\n\n(NB: ignore sensitivity and specificity of the actual lab test for now.) 2/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066892671582208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237066891774038000,"conversation_id":"1237066891774038018","created_at":1583774705000,"date":"2020-03-09","time":"17:25:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Why is it surprising when 7% of patients tested for #COVID19 are positive? It tells us something about the prevalence of infection, but it also provides valuable (and concerning) info about who is actually receiving testing.\n\nAn EPI 101 thread (probabilities ahead).\n\n1/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":59,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1237066891774038018","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236472379863335000,"conversation_id":"1236472366504513536","created_at":1583632962000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"02:02:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some others that I have seen...\n\nAvoid large gatherings like concerts. Grocery shop at unusual times of day. Videoconference instead of an in-person meeting. Get delivery or take-out instead of eating out.\n\nIt would be nice to have a list of ideas to share w/ friends & family.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1236472379863334912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235176116500992000,"conversation_id":"1235176115062427649","created_at":1583323909000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"12:11:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For example, SARS does not circulate, and MERS causes only sporadic outbreaks (mostly in Saudi Arabia). If folks aren’t exposed, we can’t assess whether the vaccine protects. Without a way to determine field efficacy, there hasn’t been a clear path forward for licensure. 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1235176116500992000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234226982218616800,"conversation_id":"1234219769852809216","created_at":1583097618000,"date":"2020-03-01","time":"21:20:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"One limitation I have seen with these types of analyses is that they do not specify if time to discharge is treated as a censoring time in their Cox model. (It should not be bc it’s highly informative.) Their KM curves suggest that it hasn’t been handled properly...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1234226982218616834","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234223063786573800,"conversation_id":"1234219769852809216","created_at":1583096683000,"date":"2020-03-01","time":"21:04:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Of the 1590 cases analyzed, 399 (25.1%) had at least one comorbidity. With info about the prevalence of comorbidities in the population, we could apply a crude Bayesian analysis to infer increased risk of becoming a case given other conditions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1234223063786573824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234220208283365400,"conversation_id":"1234219769852809216","created_at":1583096003000,"date":"2020-03-01","time":"20:53:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"After adjusting for age and smoking status, COPD, diabetes, hypertension and malignancy were associated with the greatest increase in hazard.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1234220208283365376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234103769547333600,"conversation_id":"1234103769547333633","created_at":1583068241000,"date":"2020-03-01","time":"13:10:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Question for the virologists and clinicians.\n\nThough the jury is out on the role of antibody dependent enhancement for #COVID19, what is the implication of ADE for antibody-based therapeutics?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1234103769547333633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232449293065191400,"conversation_id":"1232446629854109697","created_at":1582673783000,"date":"2020-02-25","time":"23:36:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some of these processes can be run in parallel or combined, as was done during the West African Ebola epidemic, but only to a certain extent. Particularly because there are concerns that vaccines for this virus could cause MORE severe disease (like with dengue...).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1232449293065191424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231978936214659000,"conversation_id":"1231978928736174080","created_at":1582561642000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"16:27:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/6 With results expected soon from a few treatment trials, important to understand that, regardless of the outcome, lots more research to do to ensure that patients receive the best possible care.\n\nEND","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1231978936214659072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231978934255980500,"conversation_id":"1231978928736174080","created_at":1582561641000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"16:27:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5/6 Finally, the group emphasized a commitment to ensure equitable access to investigational treatments. Compassionate use frameworks will be important for patients who cannot access a clinical trial. The Ebola MEURI program offers a useful precedent.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1231978934255980546","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231978932993392600,"conversation_id":"1231978928736174080","created_at":1582561641000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"16:27:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/6 For trials of investigational treatments (like remdesivir), the group advocates the use of “master protocols.” When outbreaks emerge in new areas, trials can continue under the same unified framework. The goal is to promote collaboration and efficiency.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1231978932993392641","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231978931563225000,"conversation_id":"1231978928736174080","created_at":1582561641000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"16:27:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/6 We need to start trials studying the use of chemoprophylaxis in high-risk populations, particularly in health-care workers. Antivirals can sometimes be effective for preventing infection (pre-exposure) or preventing disease after infection (post-exposure).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1231978931563225090","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231978930250403800,"conversation_id":"1231978928736174080","created_at":1582561640000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"16:27:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/6 An immediate priority is to use available data from China and elsewhere to identify the most effective standard of care approaches. This can be done now. It is also important to evaluate adjunctive interventions like high-flow oxygen and steroids.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1231978930250403840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230906522152177700,"conversation_id":"1230906522152177664","created_at":1582305958000,"date":"2020-02-21","time":"17:25:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"“And I urge you to please notice when you are happy, and exclaim or murmur or think at some point, 'If this isn't nice, I don't know what is.’”\n\n-Kurt Vonnegut\n\n#FridayFeeling","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":["#fridayfeeling"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1230906522152177664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230243516011470800,"conversation_id":"1230243510424686592","created_at":1582147885000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"21:31:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/3 On the basis of how many exported cases are observed, we can infer how big the underlying outbreak (symptomatic and asymptomatic infections) in Wuhan must have been. This gives the denominator of number of infections. Lots of assumptions, but it offers a starting point. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1230243516011470848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230243511334731800,"conversation_id":"1230243510424686592","created_at":1582147884000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"21:31:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/3 First we know how many people live in Wuhan, and we know how many people fly out of Wuhan each day. Next it is assumed that all airline passengers are screened for #SARSCoV2 and all symptomatic cases are identified (big assumption!).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":["#sarscov2"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1230243511334731776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229513330764787700,"conversation_id":"1229513316172804117","created_at":1581973795000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"21:09:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7/7 As #COVID19 continues to spread globally, it would be smart to have a generalizable compassionate use framework in place that countries can quickly adopt. This would enable wider access to investigational products for the sickest patients.\n\nEND","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229513330764787713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229513329703575600,"conversation_id":"1229513316172804117","created_at":1581973795000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"21:09:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/7 This framework nicely complemented the ongoing trial. Before sites had everything in place to start randomizing, they could treat patients by MEURI. Observational data from MEURI could also be pooled and compared to the trial results.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229513329703575553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229513324519415800,"conversation_id":"1229513316172804117","created_at":1581973794000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"21:09:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/7 Patients may access unlicensed products through randomized clinical trials. If no proven effective therapy exists already, these are usually placebo-controlled. Patients must consent to participate as the products may be ineffective or even harmful.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229513324519415808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229513323319898000,"conversation_id":"1229513316172804117","created_at":1581973794000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"21:09:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"1/7 Unlicensed (investigational) products have not been approved by regulators. Their safety and efficacy are unknown, although some safety data may be available for products already used to treat other diseases.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229513323319898114","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229163592802619400,"conversation_id":"1229163584757862401","created_at":1581890411000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"22:00:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/8 A trial running at a single regional hospital might need to end early if the outbreak in that region ends. The sample size may be too small to determine if the product works.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229163592802619393","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229163591854588000,"conversation_id":"1229163584757862401","created_at":1581890411000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"22:00:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5/8 Because the #COVID19 outbreak is so large, clinical trials may not face the same challenges with slow patient accrual (and we could quickly have an answer!), but this could change!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229163591854587904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229163589421977600,"conversation_id":"1229163584757862401","created_at":1581890411000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"22:00:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/8 To run a trial, we need to enroll and randomize acutely ill patients, so the trial must be set up where an outbreak is ongoing. But outbreaks can be short (like SARS) and unpredictable (like MERS). The outbreak might end before the trial starts!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229163589421977601","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229163588570448000,"conversation_id":"1229163584757862401","created_at":1581890410000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"22:00:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/8 The challenge is that there is rarely a “homerun” with these products. They tend to have a weak/moderate effect, even when used early after symptom onset. Thus, we need randomized clinical trials to tell if they actually work.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229163588570447877","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229163587454808000,"conversation_id":"1229163584757862401","created_at":1581890410000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"22:00:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"1/8 Types of therapies being considered for #COVIDー19 include antibodies and antivirals, like lopinavir (licensed for HIV) and remdesivir (developed for Ebola but shown to be ineffective in the recent PALM trial in DRC).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":["#covidー19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1229163587454808070","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1228798364248047600,"conversation_id":"1228797275205488640","created_at":1581803334000,"date":"2020-02-15","time":"21:48:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Our paper on this topic will be out soon! Look forward to sharing it with everyone.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1228798364248047621","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1228452206745182200,"conversation_id":"1228452206745182209","created_at":1581720804000,"date":"2020-02-14","time":"22:53:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Nothing makes my imposter syndrome flare up more than a request from the media for an interview. 🥴","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1228452206745182209","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272625939755778000,"conversation_id":"1272625938124222466","created_at":1592252642000,"date":"2020-06-15","time":"20:24:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"But seriously, this is a solid victory for love & justice in an f'd up time. 🌈💖\n\nAlso: I'm surprised it was Gorsuch who led the way on this! Pundits on all sides are spinning this as Why The Other Side Is Hypocrites, but screw that, this was good & I give Gorsuch honest credit.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1272625939755778050","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272556706401259500,"conversation_id":"1272556705004621830","created_at":1592236136000,"date":"2020-06-15","time":"15:48:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"I hope this was the insightful, educational content you followed me for","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":106,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1272556706401259520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272556705004621800,"conversation_id":"1272556705004621830","created_at":1592236136000,"date":"2020-06-15","time":"15:48:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"🎵\n\nWhen it's quit-work-time o' clock\nLet's go to Femboy Hooters!\n\nWhen your chicken sandwich needs more cock\nLet's go to Femboy Hooters!\n\nThighs & sausage upon your plate\nThat's not ranch sauce you just ate\n\nWhen boys' boot-ers, can't get cuters,\nLet's go to! Fem! Boy!\n\nHOOTERS","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":150,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1272556705004621830","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257352434428645400,"conversation_id":"1257352434428645379","created_at":1588611155000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"16:52:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"Let's say 1 person who's convinced of misinformation, on average, convinces 3 others. This means R0 = 3.\n\nBut! If you teach just 67% of people basic epidemiology/statistics, you can get R < 1, containing the info-demic!\n\nThis is called \"nerd immunity\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":65,"retweets_count":3089,"likes_count":8739,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1257352434428645379","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242507374470017000,"conversation_id":"1242507365666209796","created_at":1585071817000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"17:43:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"Finally, as a digital rights advocate who open sources (public domain) all their code+art:\n\n🕵️‍♀️Contact tracing CAN and SHOULD be done in a privacy-preserving way.\n\nClient-side crypto ain't that hard. We just need to demand both our health AND privacy are protected.\n\n🧵 5/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1242507374470017024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242507371290771500,"conversation_id":"1242507365666209796","created_at":1585071816000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"17:43:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"Look, this lockdown will be a toll on our mental health. I envy Singaporeans who can just *go* to satay restaurants.\n\nSo here's a source of⭐️Determination⭐️:\n\nThe sooner we CRUSH the curve, the sooner we can switch to testing+tracing...\n\n& life returning to mostly normal.\n\n🧵 3/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1242507371290771460","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240666299644215300,"conversation_id":"1240661788087156738","created_at":1584632870000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"15:47:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"So, yeah! Wanted to stress how ridiculously under-appreciated & effective handwashing with soap is.\n\nAnd now you know how to do it properly, to a catchy tune 🎵 Since we're in this for the long haul, I sincerely hope the song helped boost your spirits a bit\n\nStay safe & sane! 💖","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1240666299644215299","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240317601638686700,"conversation_id":"1240315409477390340","created_at":1584549734000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"16:42:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"man, I haven't thought about Singaporean comics in a *long* time\n\nI wonder how Mr Kiasu is doing\n\nMr Kiasee must be livin' the germaphobic dream right now","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1240317601638686721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238495448299720700,"conversation_id":"1238495448299720705","created_at":1584115299000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"16:01:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"Sci-comm Twitter, I need your help! What are the best practices in communicating health risks?\n\nSo far I know\n* Absolute frequencies > percentages (\"1 in 50 people\" vs 2%)\n* Fear appeals work *only* with a specific, concrete action (else it backfires, peeps tune out)\n\nWhat else?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1238495448299720705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238487413909065700,"conversation_id":"1238487413909065729","created_at":1584113384000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"15:29:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"And, to make sure I'm not stuck in my echo chamber, I honestly want to hear opposite opinions:\n\nIf you are skeptical of Coronavirus/COVID-19's severity, why?\n\n(No judgments here, I was highly skeptical of it myself until last week)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1238487413909065729","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238486588037922800,"conversation_id":"1238486588037922816","created_at":1584113187000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"15:26:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":40631172,"username":"ncasenmare","name":"Nicky Case","place":"","tweet":"If you were skeptical about COVID-19's severity, but recently changed your mind, what info/event/person changed it?\n\n(For me, I knew the news overblew Zika & Mad Cow so I didn't care, until my stats-literate pals said: \"forget the # cases, look at the exponential *growth rate*\")","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":68,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":164,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ncasenmare/status/1238486588037922816","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"40631172","username":"ncasenmare"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
