{"id":1254251253623898000,"conversation_id":"1254251246904631302","created_at":1587871776000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"03:29:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/6 Finally, their model predicts that 26% of Stockholm residents will have been infected by May 1. That is only a week away. Compare this to recent estimates of 21% seroprevalence in NYC. Do we think Stockholm has had a comparable outbreak to NYC?\n\nConclusion: I'm skeptical. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":30,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":354,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1254251253623898115","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254059016457683000,"conversation_id":"1254055418264944640","created_at":1587825943000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"14:45:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Not saying these events are common, but there may be an as-yet unidentified condition that is putting some young people at high risk. We need more research.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1254059016457682950","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254055757085106200,"conversation_id":"1254055418264944640","created_at":1587825166000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"14:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"(One of many reasons why I think herd immunity strategies are dangerous.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1254055757085106182","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817371854360600,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768330000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7/7 What can serosurveys not tell us? Whether we are ready to re-open our economy. This will depend on having a robust system to test, trace, and isolate infections. Without this, we are no better off than we were before, and would expect the virus to quickly resurge. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":138,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817371854360576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817370688270300,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768330000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/7 What can serosurveys tell us? They can help us identify high risk populations most likely to be infected and most likely to die given infection. We are seeing important differences across race/ethnicities, ages, and underlying conditions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817370688270336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817369878823000,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768330000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5/7 Even if the IFR is 1 in 1000, the sheer numbers of people who are susceptible make this virus devastating. The virus spreads easily and quickly. We need only look at the numbers hospitalized and dead in hard-hit areas to see its impact.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817369878822914","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817369140625400,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768330000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/7 The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is much lower than the crude case fatality ratio of 5% in the US. IFR is likely <1%. But there is still too much uncertainty in both the numerator (underreported deaths) and denominator (infections) to establish an exact value.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817369140625408","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817368389845000,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768330000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/7 It’s clear that there are many more infections than laboratory confirmed cases. I guess 10-20x, and others feel similar, though this may change over time. We expected under-reporting because of incomplete testing and because mild and asymptomatic infections are missed.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817368389844992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817361335038000,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768328000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/7 Emerging data are consistently showing that seroprevalence in most areas is low. Only in hard-hit areas are we seeing prevalence above single digits. This means we are a ways off from herd immunity levels (60%+).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817361335037957","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253817360538112000,"conversation_id":"1253817360538112000","created_at":1587768328000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"22:45:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"1/7 Serosurveys! We scientists are quibbling about specificity, but what do these study results mean for the general public?\n\nMy take on what serosurveys can and cannot tell us.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":119,"likes_count":279,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253817360538112000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253768802183131100,"conversation_id":"1253764686539087874","created_at":1587756750000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"19:32:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"- Following a few selected participants over time will be useful for understanding antibody dynamics.\n- The test they have used seems to have very poor specificity. How will this impact their findings?\n- I'd like to see details of their analysis plan.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253768802183131136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253768801478414300,"conversation_id":"1253764686539087874","created_at":1587756750000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"19:32:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some initial thoughts:\n- I think the random dialing concept is very smart, though of course people may preferentially consent. They also must have access to car and be willing to go out.\n- Repeated surveys over time will provide valuable data and enable us to track trends.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":55,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253768801478414338","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253765767109259300,"conversation_id":"1253764686539087874","created_at":1587756027000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"19:20:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The study will continue weekly drive-thru testing, and expand to voluntary testing in hard-hit areas. This will also allow the group to identify risk factors for infection (e.g. race). They also plan to follow some participants over time to measure changes in antibody levels.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":55,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253765767109259267","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253733572588028000,"conversation_id":"1253731732857257984","created_at":1587748351000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"17:12:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Thank you, random Twitter folks, for your support and Eminem memes!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253733572588027905","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253455655442231300,"conversation_id":"1253455651734466561","created_at":1587682090000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"22:48:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/ When we combine all survey results together, we can calibrate the relationship between the visible impact of an outbreak (number of cases, hospitalized, dead) and the seroprevalence. And we can learn about how the virus spreads and which populations are most affected. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253455655442231296","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253455654641193000,"conversation_id":"1253455651734466561","created_at":1587682090000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"22:48:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/ Seroprevalence cannot be extrapolated from place to place. We don’t expect the same levels of immunity in Indiana as in NYC. But age-specific fatality rates may be similar across the country, or the level of underdetection (how many infections missed for each confirmed case).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253455654641192960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253386519533904000,"conversation_id":"1253377932950745089","created_at":1587665607000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"18:13:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, neither of us were directly involved in the implementation or analysis of these surveys. We were simply asked to help brainstorm strategies that could be implemented quickly and would be less biased than volunteer surveys. This was one suggestion, plus blood banks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253386519533903872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332435795755000,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652713000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7/7 Many antibody tests have flooded the market. Highly specific tests (that yield few false positives) are important here. Coupled with other findings (known symptom history, CT scan), we might trust results more, but we still have a ways to go. END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":80,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332435795755013","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332434646495200,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652712000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/7 In a low risk population, false positives quickly outnumber true positives that the results are very difficult to interpret. Even with a positive test, you're more likely than not to be negative. This all has implications for the use of antibody tests for \"immune passports.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332434646495234","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332433665003500,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652712000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5/7 An easy analogy is to cancer screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA). This biomarker is pretty unreliable, but sometimes it's used in high risk groups (men with a family history of cancer). That is because we expect more true positives than in a low risk population.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332433665003529","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332432700321800,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652712000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/7 In practice, PPV is the value that matters most to patients and clinicians. If a test says you have antibodies, is that result reliable?\n\nImportantly, PPV depends not just on sensitivity and specificity, but also on the prevalence of infection.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332432700321795","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332431664365600,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652712000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/7 Positive predictive value (PPV) is simply the proportion of positives that are true positives:\n\nPPV = TP/(TP+FP)\n\nThis depends on how good the test is at detecting infections (sensitivity), and how good the test is at accurately classifying non-infections (specificity).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332431664365573","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332430510948400,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652711000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/7 There are two types of positives for antibody tests:\n\n- True positives (TP), which occur when someone has been infected, and the test gets it right.\n\n- False positives (FP), which occur when someone has not been infected, and the test gets it wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332430510948353","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253332429428805600,"conversation_id":"1253332429428805634","created_at":1587652711000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"14:38:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"1/7 Lots of folks trying to understand sensitivity and specificity. Maybe the most important concept to understand right now is that of POSITIVE PREDICTIVE VALUE.\n\nGiven a test result is positive, what are the chances you were actually infected?\n\nBiostats 101 primer on the topic.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":278,"likes_count":807,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253332429428805634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253316436912726000,"conversation_id":"1253313413662588929","created_at":1587648898000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"13:34:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Briefly, based on observed seroprevalence of 2.5%, the proportion of unconfirmed cases must, according to our calculations, be 0.987, i.e. 98.7% of all infected cases need to be unconfirmed cases.\n\nAnyone have any thoughts on these calculations?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1253316436912726016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252950042433945600,"conversation_id":"1252949287127912448","created_at":1587561543000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"13:19:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, I don't think the true prevalence is higher than their estimate. And is a volunteer-driven serosurvey using a test with poorly characterized specificity the best science can do?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252950042433945600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252921653027319800,"conversation_id":"1252913472003813377","created_at":1587554774000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"11:26:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"FWIW, I was already skeptical about this study, though I remained open to it. There can be lots of false positives, and it felt high relative to other (early) serosurveys.\n\nFor an example of another study I am skeptical about: all those asymptomatic homeless in Boston. Lab error?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252921653027319809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252804365787836400,"conversation_id":"1252802151660900352","created_at":1587526811000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"03:40:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The modeling considers three different scenarios. Either 99%, 99.5%, or 99.9% of infections are going undetected. Is there evidence that any of these scenarios are realistic?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":121,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252804365787836417","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252593878508716000,"conversation_id":"1252593876763914241","created_at":1587476627000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"13:43:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"How do we whether we are in the 2% or 4% seroprevalence setting? It depends on the sensitivity/specificity of the test. But the tests are so new, that we aren't sure how well they work. Which is why the safest conclusion is that seroprevalence is \"low,\" no more precise than that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252593878508716032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252403915351486500,"conversation_id":"1252403604415066118","created_at":1587431336000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"01:08:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Do better. I’m going to bed.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":114,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252403915351486465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252342129398968300,"conversation_id":"1252276978670944260","created_at":1587416605000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"21:03:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"LOL","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252342129398968326","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252276978670944300,"conversation_id":"1252276978670944260","created_at":1587401072000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"16:44:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Real talk. For those who specialize in emerging infectious diseases, the sheer number of emails and requests is overwhelming. How are you deciding what to say yes to and what to decline? I have always been a yes person, and I am realizing I probably need a new approach.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252276978670944260","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252205907347456000,"conversation_id":"1252005719609655298","created_at":1587384127000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"12:02:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Thanks to everyone who has provided helpful info in response to my questions. To clarify, not everything is open, though it is clear they are pursuing a different strategy than other countries. I will post something later with a few thoughts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1252205907347456006","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944406028038100,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321781000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:43:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"20. These are some of the key design features for serosurveys. I have not gone into sensitivity/specificity of the test or data analysis, as the thread is long. But I welcome any suggestions of other considerations, and I will append my favorites to the end of this thread. END.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944406028038155","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944404291670000,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321780000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:43:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"19. Finally, surveys are often one-time cross-sectional studies. But in Miami, they are recruiting 750 new participants each week (repeated cross-sectional studies). Longitudinal studies, where the same people are sampled every 3+ weeks, are especially valuable.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944404291670016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944402827829200,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321780000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:43:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"18. We can use this data to identify risk factors for infection by comparing exposures of infected and non-infected individuals. A nested case-control study could also be conducted to evaluate risk factors.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944402827829248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944401733116000,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321780000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:43:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"17. Studies collect questionnaire data. In addition to basic demographic data, occupation, travel history, known exposure to a case, and history of clinical symptoms in the X months since transmission started are all important.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944401733115904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944400135086000,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321779000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"16. So quick-and-dirty versus slow-and-rigorous? I think both have value. The rapid though potentially biased volunteer surveys establish an order of magnitude for seroprevalence (1%, 10%, 50%?) while we wait for more reliable household data to emerge.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944400135086081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944399153631200,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321779000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"15. Another convenience sample is blood donors. Very convenient, though you will still need to collect questionnaire data. Also, people are probably less likely to donate when they are ill. But WHO notes that blood donors are a very eager, easy to follow population.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944399153631238","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944396100075500,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321778000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"13. An obvious concern with volunteer surveys is that people will preferentially enroll because they think they had COVID and want confirmation. Notably, NIH lists prior COVID or current symptoms as an exclusion criteria. But WHO guidance advises against excluding known cases.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":91,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944396100075521","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944390588842000,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321777000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"9. Household designs are less prone to bias, though not immune as not everyone will consent to participate or be home. For example, essential workers may be harder to recruit than those who are sheltering in place. These studies also take more time to set up and run.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944390588841984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944388793716700,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321776000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"8. The best designs are household-based with random selection of households. All persons in the household are invited to participate to get a broad range of ages. Including entire households also allows us to assess transmissibility within households.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":92,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944388793716736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944387099144200,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321776000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7. When targeting a geographic region, it may make logistical sense to select a few smaller sub-areas to study. For example, we might select 4-5 areas ranging from most hard-hit (assessed by cases and deaths) to least hard-hit, to establish a range.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944387099144195","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944385396322300,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321776000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6. Another major scientific goal is to determine age-specific infection probabilities and, thus, age-specific IFR. This can be achieved if there is good coverage across age groups. Finally, we are interested in the fraction of infections that are asymptomatic.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":99,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944385396322306","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944383643091000,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321775000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5. The above is also critical for inferring the infection fatality ratio. Serosurveys let us estimate the full denominator, rather than just PCR-confirmed cases. Best estimates of IFR seem to be hovering around 0.5 or 0.6%, although more data are emerging.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":118,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944383643090945","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944381986287600,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321775000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4. Primary scientific aims:\nDetermine the proportion of the population that has been infected. This can be used to address questions about \"herd immunity.\" It can also be used to determine proportion of infections detected (is it 1 out of 50 or 1 out of 10?).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":99,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944381986287616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251944380287549400,"conversation_id":"1251944376554659840","created_at":1587321774000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"18:42:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3. First, it is critical to remember that serosurveys are population-level surveys. They are intended to inform our broader understanding of the disease, not to tell individuals whether or not they have been infected. The test is still too unreliable for the latter.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":57,"likes_count":179,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251944380287549441","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251691159111565300,"conversation_id":"1251691137397645313","created_at":1587261402000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"01:56:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Until this number goes down, though, it is clear that we are not achieving the testing coverage or low infection rates we will need to safely exit distancing policies. 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":205,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251691159111565313","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251691157274460200,"conversation_id":"1251691137397645313","created_at":1587261401000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"01:56:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The fact that this statistic has held steady over time is bewildering to some of us. My best guess is that expansion in testing is counterbalanced with an increase in rate of infection. But this is purely speculation. 3/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251691157274460160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251348622597337000,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587179735000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"03:15:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Addendum: Folks commenting that people self-selected into the survey because they had been sick and wanted confirmation. Agreed, this is what I meant by “consent bias.” This is expected w/ volunteer studies. How to adjust/avoid it? Household samples are great but take longer.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":45,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":576,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251348622597337088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309227760468000,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170342000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So, the major reasons why I remain skeptical:\n- Unstable population weighting\n- Wide bounds after adjusting for clustering\n- Is test specificity really that high?\n- Unavoidable potential for consent bias\n- Is this consistent with other emerging serosurvey data?\nFin 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":46,"retweets_count":118,"likes_count":651,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309227760467974","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309224828625000,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170342000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Finally, they present several estimates adjusting for the qualities of the test (sensitivity, specificity). Notably, their internal validation returns very high specificity (99.5% and 100% by two methods). This means they anticipate few false positives. 8/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":173,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309224828624896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309222551187500,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170341000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Having had experience with these types of weighted surveys, I am always a little skeptical when the weighted result is very different from the unweighted result. Here, nearly double. This can be due to a few highly influential observations. Weights can be wonky. 6/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":352,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309222551187457","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309221510930400,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170341000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The crude seroprevalence is 1.5% (1.11-1.97%). The population weighted seroprevalence is 2.81% (2.24-3.37%). These are different because under-represented combinations of zip code, sex, and race will receive more weight. 5/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":205,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309221510930433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309219233423400,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170340000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"After completing an online demographic survey (zip code, age, sex, race/ethnicity, comorbidities, prior symptoms), consenting adults could bring a child with them for drive-thru testing at one of three locations. Their final sample size was 2,718 adults and 612 children. 3/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":192,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309219233423361","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251309218243608600,"conversation_id":"1251309217215942656","created_at":1587170340000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"00:39:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The study recruited patients in the county through Facebook ads. To make the survey representative, enrollment was capped when quotas were reached in certain areas, and encouraged in areas with lower participation. A smart strategy for easy recruitment, in my opinion. 2/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":289,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251309218243608576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251240186010194000,"conversation_id":"1251240184697380864","created_at":1587153881000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"20:04:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"These figures were created using IHME's method. Importantly, the projections are unreliable even in populations where the peak in daily deaths has been clearly observed (Spain, Italy). Now think about trying to make projections in a place where the curve is still only rising.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251240186010193920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251236367238983700,"conversation_id":"1251236362159656960","created_at":1587152971000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:49:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"To address the fact that efficacy may vary by age, the minimum characteristic is ~50% efficacy on a population basis. This does not mean 50% efficacy in all age groups, but rather an average across ages. Ideal is 70%+ efficacy in all groups, including the elderly. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251236367238983680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251236366316261400,"conversation_id":"1251236362159656960","created_at":1587152971000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:49:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The target product profile specifies that the vaccine must be able to be used in adults, including the elderly. This is defined as a critical characteristic. Notably, not all vaccines work well in older adults as immunity wanes with age. 5/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251236366316261376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251236365238521900,"conversation_id":"1251236362159656960","created_at":1587152970000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:49:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A durable vaccine can be used for long-term protection in populations at high ongoing risk, like health-care and front-line workers. Booster doses are permitted. Safety is even more critical as the risk/benefit ratio is different than reactive use in an ongoing outbreak. 4/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251236365238521861","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251236364214915000,"conversation_id":"1251236362159656960","created_at":1587152970000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:49:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A fast-acting product can be used reactively in outbreak settings to curtail or end an outbreak. Ideally this would have rapid onset (<2 wks) and be a single-dose vaccine. No more than two-doses are acceptable, ideally with some protection conferred after the first dose. 3/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251236364214915072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251236363191545900,"conversation_id":"1251236362159656960","created_at":1587152970000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"19:49:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Like we have seen for other vaccines targeting outbreak pathogens (e.g. Ebola), there are two general types of desired products. \n\n1) A fast-acting product for reactive use.\n2) A durable product for long-term use.\n\n2/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251236363191545858","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251092560518557700,"conversation_id":"1251085183333421056","created_at":1587118685000,"date":"2020-04-17","time":"10:18:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I’m personally not convinced that we are spending enough time learning from other countries. The data are there! What do they tell us?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251092560518557699","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250829258328604700,"conversation_id":"1250826752768774144","created_at":1587055909000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"16:51:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Other recommendations for conducting trials in outbreaks:\n- Allow trial sites to be added over time.\n- Before sites are ready to randomize, collect high-quality observational data to be monitored by DMC.\n- Prioritize trial arms based on what is scientifically most likely to work.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1250829258328604675","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250417500870893600,"conversation_id":"1250417498031304704","created_at":1586957738000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"13:35:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So this is why I think that comfortable, *voluntary* options for isolation should be part of any comprehensive, long-term control strategy. Other countries have had success with vacant hotels and dormitories. I've seen someone suggest RVs. Let's start this discussion. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1250417500870893570","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250417500212297700,"conversation_id":"1250417498031304704","created_at":1586957738000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"13:35:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Current recommendations are to stay home and try to keep to separate part of the house, which makes sense given limited resources, but clearly this puts your family members at risk. What if you live with an elderly relative or immunocompromised spouse? 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1250417500212297729","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250417499562270700,"conversation_id":"1250417498031304704","created_at":1586957738000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"13:35:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Due to extensive pre-symptomatic transmission, it is difficult to prevent household transmission. But while we may not prevent all of it, can we prevent some of it? Imagine knowing you have been exposed to a sick co-worker. Where is the best place for you to safely isolate? 3/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1250417499562270720","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250417498887000000,"conversation_id":"1250417498031304704","created_at":1586957738000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"13:35:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"As we have seen in other countries, once you do a better job of containing community spread, household transmission becomes a bigger part of the picture. Look at the orange bars over time in Iceland. So while our focus is short-term, we can't totally ignore the long-term. 2/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1250417498887000064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249091427235254300,"conversation_id":"1249091414635491331","created_at":1586641577000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"21:46:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Importantly, though, even while we pursue test-and-treat for HIV control, we have not stopped other control strategies. The reality is that test-and-treat is difficult, so it is used in combination with other interventions (condom use, circumcision, linkage to care).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1249091427235254273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249091425175822300,"conversation_id":"1249091414635491331","created_at":1586641577000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"21:46:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In test-and-treat, the goal is to achieve routine, universal HIV testing in communities. HIV positive individuals are immediately put on antiretrovirals to suppress viral load and prevent onward transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1249091425175822337","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249063562938667000,"conversation_id":"1249033245167104002","created_at":1586634934000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"19:55:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Briefly, there are more deaths per hospitalization in hard hit states. By adjusting for this by state, it has the paradoxical effect of making hard hit states look like they will need fewer resources. I would suggest using a constant ratio consistent w/ good quality care.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1249063562938667008","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248753902834638800,"conversation_id":"1248753896404799489","created_at":1586561105000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"23:25:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7/ Hundreds of trials are underway now, including a few large ones using this core protocol approach (WHO’s Solidarity trial, and NIAID’s adaptive trial). The goal is to produce rapid and reliable evidence on the performance of these drugs.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248753902834638848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248753901974806500,"conversation_id":"1248753896404799489","created_at":1586561105000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"23:25:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"6/ This flexible structure, which we call a core protocol, speeds enrollment. And it is particularly valuable here because it makes the trial robust to the unpredictability of outbreaks. Even if an outbreak ends in one spot, the trial can continue in a new hotspot.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248753901974806529","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248753900209033200,"conversation_id":"1248753896404799489","created_at":1586561105000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"23:25:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/ Outside of the rare miracle cure, randomized trials are the only reliable way to sort out whether patients do better because of the drug or whether they would have recovered on their own.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248753900209033216","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248699582902677500,"conversation_id":"1248699579920461824","created_at":1586548154000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"19:49:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/ I know that in places in FL, asymptomatic contacts are sent a once-daily text asking whether new symptoms have developed during their quarantine. If they reply “yes”, tracers receive an email alert that triggers follow-up to get the individual scheduled for testing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248699582902677505","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351799289004000,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465236000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"9/9 So that is my working hypothesis. I hope people can help fill in the gaps. For example, while it's clear to me why this assumption would change numbers hospitalized, I am not sure why it affects forecasted numbers of deaths. But maybe it can help get the discussion going.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351799289004035","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351797913190400,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465236000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"8/ But putting my public health hat on, is this the appropriate approach? Wouldn't it be better to say we want all states to achieve a particular ratio (e.g. 11 hospitalizations to 1 death) that is consistent with higher quality care?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351797913190400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351797145673700,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465236000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"7/ When I see this, I infer that patients in hardest hit states are accessing care too late.\n\nSo my theory is that the forecasts reflect these state-by-state differences, and this is why hardest hit states seem to paradoxically do better. They need a smaller extrapolation factor.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351797145673728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351795035897900,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465235000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"5/ But something in this is strange to me. Wouldn't we be better off with a HIGHER ratio of hospitalizations to deaths? This would mean more people are surviving.\n\nFor example, in Germany, many more people are hospitalized early on in illness and tend to do better as a result.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351795035897866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351794188689400,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465235000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"4/ From their document: \"These lower ratios of admissions to deaths result in predicted peak hospital resource use – total beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators – that is lower than previously estimated.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351794188689410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351793328935000,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465235000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"3/ That is because the model fits a curve to deaths and then uses this curve to extrapolate backwards how many people are hospitalized and need ventilators.\n\nMultiplying by 7.1 will suggest smaller need than multiplying by 11.1.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351793328934917","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248351792519417900,"conversation_id":"1248351790611005440","created_at":1586465235000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"20:47:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"2/ With new data, this was updated to 7.1.\n\nImportantly, this means that patients are doing WORSE (more deaths).\n\nBut this has the counter-intuitive effect of making things look BETTER. For the same number of deaths, fewer people will be hospitalized.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":80,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1248351792519417857","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247863570613842000,"conversation_id":"1247863565291343873","created_at":1586348834000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"12:27:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So, I’d like to see more discussion about both sides of this issue. I can discuss the epidemiology, not the civil liberty implications. Let’s help each other understand what the options are here.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247863570613841923","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247863569691140000,"conversation_id":"1247863565291343873","created_at":1586348833000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"12:27:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Scenario 4: I have symptoms and test positive. It is possible the rest of my family has already been infected, but the household secondary attack rate isn’t 100%. And we can still try to prevent post-symptomatic transmission or the third generation of household spread.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247863569691140096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247863568483172400,"conversation_id":"1247863565291343873","created_at":1586348833000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"12:27:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Scenario 3: I am elderly and develop mild COVID19 symptoms, but we know that patients can progress quickly to respiratory distress. If we had the capacity, could I be closely monitored and receive early supportive care if required?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247863568483172352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247863567757521000,"conversation_id":"1247863565291343873","created_at":1586348833000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"12:27:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Scenario 2: My co-worker tests positive, and I know that we have interacted closely. My partner is a diabetic. Right now, I am advised to just stay at home to see if I develop symptoms, but I’m infectious before then.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247863567757520901","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247863566537052200,"conversation_id":"1247863565291343873","created_at":1586348833000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"12:27:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Scenario 1: I’m a nurse treating COVID patients daily. My hospital is running low on PPE. I have an elderly parent at home. I am sleeping in the garage, and we all share a single bathroom. (I have seen stories like this.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247863566537052160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247329657508311000,"conversation_id":"1247329657508311041","created_at":1586221539000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"01:05:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"1/ There's no shortage of discouraging news out there right now. So I wanted to share a different angle. I am really proud to be part of an amazing community of scientists and clinicians.\n\nA short thread on a few of my favorite things, in case you missed them.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":115,"likes_count":313,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1247329657508311041","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246927346063597600,"conversation_id":"1246927334889971718","created_at":1586125620000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"22:27:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Ideally we can get to a point where testing is so widespread that everyone can access testing to pick up those pre-symptomatics, but even then, wouldn’t we still make an extra effort for those known to be at greatest risk?\n\nVery interested to hear what others think here.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246927346063597570","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246927345161830400,"conversation_id":"1246927334889971718","created_at":1586125620000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"22:27:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Digital strategies could make this fairly easy to do. Lots of apps being developed now for this purpose.\n\nUntil then, we have a lot of people who are currently out of work who could be employed in this effort. Is it so difficult to train them?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246927345161830403","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246857128490516500,"conversation_id":"1246857128490516487","created_at":1586108879000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"17:47:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Wise words found on Facebook (of all places):\n\n\"We isolate ourselves so that when we get back together, no one is missing.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":152,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246857128490516487","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246476789163139000,"conversation_id":"1246476785350516737","created_at":1586018199000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"16:36:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"My own editorial comment. Countries all have their own learning curves. I wish we were paying closer attention to the countries who are succeeding so far, instead of assuming that their approaches are too costly/impossible. Seems like the alternative is what is impossible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246476789163139074","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246476788458545200,"conversation_id":"1246476785350516737","created_at":1586018199000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"16:36:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"“Testing and tracking is the strategy that was successful in South Korea and we have tried to learn from that,” Professor Streeck said.\n\nGermany also learned from getting it wrong early on: The strategy of contact tracing should have been used even more aggressively, he said.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246476788458545152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246476787737137200,"conversation_id":"1246476785350516737","created_at":1586018199000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"16:36:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Medical staff, at particular risk of contracting and spreading the virus, are regularly tested. To streamline the procedure, some hospitals have started doing block tests, using the swabs of 10 employees, and following up with individual tests only if there is a positive result.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246476787737137152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246476787040821200,"conversation_id":"1246476785350516737","created_at":1586018199000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"16:36:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Early testing has also enabled lifesaving treatment to be administered in a more timely way.\n\n“When I have an early diagnosis and can treat patients early — for example put them on a ventilator before they deteriorate — the chance of survival is much higher.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246476787040821249","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246476786206212000,"conversation_id":"1246476785350516737","created_at":1586018198000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"16:36:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"By now, Germany is conducting around 350,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other European country. Early and widespread testing has allowed the authorities to slow the spread of the pandemic by isolating known cases while they are infectious.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246476786206212097","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246149299903348700,"conversation_id":"1246145924658794503","created_at":1585940120000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"18:55:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I guess since I am asking for discussion, I should add my thoughts.\n\nI'd like to see more options for healthcare and frontline workers, such as dormitories or hotel rooms. Although I guess we would have to be strategic in how to prevent them from infecting each other.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1246149299903348736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245398909586899000,"conversation_id":"1245397791448403969","created_at":1585761213000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"17:13:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"An elaborate one at that. I got got!!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1245398909586898947","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245398191702511600,"conversation_id":"1245397791448403969","created_at":1585761041000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"17:10:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Mea culpa, everyone! I want to do my best to provide reliable information and not contribute to misinformation. I promise to be more careful in the future (on this day and always).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1245398191702511616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245397791448404000,"conversation_id":"1245397791448403969","created_at":1585760946000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"17:09:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Just deleted a tweet on an \"approved\" antibody test because I think I fell for a hoax! I tried to be careful and check my sources, even finding what a report on lab verification data. Should have checked the company's board of directors, as it is entirely made up of cats!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1245397791448403969","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
