{"id":1264395478017474600,"conversation_id":"1264394137723260929","created_at":1590290347000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"03:19:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Translation: if numbers get so big that you can’t trace everyone, focus on the biggest clusters. It may be that there was a super-spreading event, and there are others who could be linked to that some cluster. More bang for your buck, effort-wise.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":51,"likes_count":171,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1264395478017474568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264275924318552000,"conversation_id":"1264275924318552069","created_at":1590261844000,"date":"2020-05-23","time":"19:24:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Hey early career researchers, particularly women and parents. What are your universities doing right to support you during this time? And if you are not feeling supported, I want to know that too. Comment or DM me.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1264275924318552069","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263917557993660400,"conversation_id":"1263917556122992640","created_at":1590176402000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"19:40:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"...Alberta can show us how to scale up testing, and our Northern Territories show us how to protect isolated remote communities.  Saskatchewan has shown us how to deal swiftly with growing outbreaks to prevent geographic spread of infection.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263917557993660416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263841106770432000,"conversation_id":"1263841105227010048","created_at":1590158175000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"14:36:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Textbook examples often prespecify the outcome and predictor variables, but a big part of statistics is deciding what these should be. I try to place statistical tests within a flow of answering a scientific question. From start to finish, how do we decide what to do?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263841106770432000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263640772664008700,"conversation_id":"1263640768532619264","created_at":1590110412000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"01:20:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Finally, they do a nice job explaining the theoretical reasons why overdispersion can make outbreaks appear so explosive. It is because many seeded cases don't cause secondary infections, so we only observe what has taken off, more likely to be a super-spreading cluster. (5/7)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263640772664008706","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263640771854577700,"conversation_id":"1263640768532619264","created_at":1590110411000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"01:20:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The article describes many different observed super-spreading events. It is through these examples that we can start to identify patterns (indoors, crowded, conversation). Importantly, preventing these can have a dramatic impact on the outbreak, making control easier. (4/7)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263640771854577665","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263640770965364700,"conversation_id":"1263640768532619264","created_at":1590110411000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"01:20:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The last category of opportunistic scenarios reflects temporary clustering of people. For a short period of time, people have many more contacts (e.g. Biogen conference). These are further exacerbated by the presence of loud speaking/singing. (3/7)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263640770965364738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263640770109636600,"conversation_id":"1263640768532619264","created_at":1590110411000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"01:20:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The article posits different categories of super-spreading events.\n- Individuals with many more contacts\n- Individuals with high viral load\n- High risk facilities (meat-packing plants, prisons, etc)\n- Opportunistic scenarios (cruises, night clubs, choirs, etc) (2/7)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":84,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263640770109636623","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263470984159539200,"conversation_id":"1263470980351111169","created_at":1590069931000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"14:05:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In my opinion, these models are best equipped to help us draw qualitative conclusions, not quantitative estimates of how many deaths would have been prevented by earlier intervention. The answer is many, but there is otherwise too much uncertainty. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":185,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263470984159539203","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263470983446433800,"conversation_id":"1263470980351111169","created_at":1590069931000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"14:05:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Furthermore, modeling requires location-specific estimates of R and reporting rates, but these things are hard to separate. Consider the situation in early March in NYC. The sharp increase in cases reflects both growth in the epidemic and growth in testing. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263470983446433793","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263470981596708900,"conversation_id":"1263470980351111169","created_at":1590069930000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"14:05:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The group from Columbia's model works by estimating the impact of movement restrictions on R, and then shifting this either 1 or 2 weeks earlier. R dramatically drops around the time of restrictions, so this yields a big change to the dynamics of the subsequent outbreak. 2/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263470981596708866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263229420946575400,"conversation_id":"1263229417507168259","created_at":1590012338000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"22:05:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The most successful strategies will be integrated into local realities. For example, the author launched a successful prenatal care program that located health centers next to markets and aligned service delivery days with market days.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263229420946575360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263229420002779100,"conversation_id":"1263229417507168259","created_at":1590012338000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"22:05:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"To help stop transmission, large teams of contact tracers can go door to door, screening for COVID-19. They can note travel histories, take temperatures, and assess other risk factors. If necessary, people can be referred to testing. This is being done now in South Africa.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263229420002779138","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263229419214250000,"conversation_id":"1263229417507168259","created_at":1590012337000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"22:05:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The article emphasizes the value of arming the community with complete and accurate information through educational campaigns. It also talks about working with local health officials and their partners to “train the trainers” – teachers and faith leaders.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263229419214249986","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263229418388021200,"conversation_id":"1263229417507168259","created_at":1590012337000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"22:05:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The piece focuses on training large teams of young community health workers to (1) educate the public about prevention, and (2) help stop transmission. It positions investment in hiring as a way to generate employment for young people.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1263229418388021250","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262769340262363100,"conversation_id":"1262769336621699073","created_at":1589902646000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:37:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The key to successful contact tracing is trust. The story describes an example from Ebola, where Liberia had greatest success by pairing nurses with community members. \"You’re less likely to give your information to a stranger. You have to have rapport and empathy.\" 5/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262769340262363137","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262769339452833800,"conversation_id":"1262769336621699073","created_at":1589902646000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:37:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"This will require large teams of tracers to be hired across the US. In California, Governor Newsom has said the state will recruit up to 20,000 people to do contact tracing work, including librarians and city attorney staff not able to do their current jobs. 4/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262769339452833792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262769338576142300,"conversation_id":"1262769336621699073","created_at":1589902646000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:37:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A patient may have a fuzzy memory, so tracers act as detectives. “You might say, ‘I talked to Bob at the grocery store, but I don’t know his last name,’ then I will call the local grocery store and ask, ‘Do you have someone called Bob who works in the produce section?’” 3/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262769338576142336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262769337745752000,"conversation_id":"1262769336621699073","created_at":1589902645000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:37:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"When a person tests positive, the local health department is notified and a contact tracer reaches out to ask about symptoms, to identify who that person has been in close contact with, and to help draw up a plan for isolation, including delivery of groceries, medications. 2/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262769337745752064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262762928727613400,"conversation_id":"1262762926164725760","created_at":1589901117000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:11:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Suggestions for airplanes include: wipe down tables and arm rests with a disinfectant; keep the personal overhead ventilation on and pointed down.\n\nUseful thinking as we imagine our path to a post-pandemic new normal.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262762928727613440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262762927888781300,"conversation_id":"1262762926164725760","created_at":1589901117000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"15:11:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Suggestions for airports include: mandate mask wearing; increase ventilation rates; make bathrooms touchless; consider deploying upper-room germicidal UV fixtures in areas with high-occupant density; institute temperature screening; deploy hand-sanitizer stations.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262762927888781314","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431402768957400,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822075000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I'd like to hear from others whether they think the lab validation problems have been addressed. Personally, I'm still skeptical about the 45X (these large extrapolation factors are unstable), but remain open to something larger than the 10-20X I have quoted. 11/END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431402768957442","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431401913319400,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822075000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"My take. It is hard to know how consent bias plays into the results. With 50% consent, anything is possible. What does it mean that the sample includes so many wealthy white adults? It's notable that the wealthiest group does not the have lowest prevalence. 10/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431401913319430","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431399908446200,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822075000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I'll let others chime in on the sensitivity and specificity of the test and the confidence intervals (adequately wide?). They used sensitivity of 82.7% and specificity of 99.5%, referencing their Santa Clara preprint for the validation procedure. 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431399908446208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431396515250200,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822074000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"(As an aside, at the bottom, I find the result that of 113 individuals that reported fever with cough in the last two months, 8.85% were seropositive - about 2.5x more than those without. So if you had a fever and cough, still more likely than not it was not COVID.) 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431396515250181","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431395747594200,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822074000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I am not sure how much any of these factors influence the results. There is an unusual U shape with income and seropositivity (last column), with highest income comparable to lowest income. But the numerators are small, so I caution against over-interpreting differences. 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431395747594241","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262431391222038500,"conversation_id":"1262431390236389376","created_at":1589822073000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"17:14:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The authors used a market research database to select participants. One adult per household was invited to visit a testing site, or offered in-home testing. The in-home testing component is useful because not everyone may have a convenient means of transportation. 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1262431391222038530","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261797349048942600,"conversation_id":"1261797349048942593","created_at":1589670905000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"23:15:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A question. Does anyone believe that 25-30% seroprevalence in Stockholm is credible?\n\nI have lots of reasons why I think seroprevalence is really much lower. Anyone have evidence to defend it?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":61,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":311,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1261797349048942593","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261708004111585300,"conversation_id":"1261707996704452609","created_at":1589649604000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"17:20:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Beware Western hubris. The situation is complex and there are lots of factors involved, but we can and should learn from other countries. We were slow to learn from Asia. Let’s not make the same mistake with other countries who routinely deal with infectious diseases...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1261708004111585281","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261318637971034000,"conversation_id":"1261317747071422465","created_at":1589556772000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"15:32:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I would really encourage women in our field to talk to the media more if you are able, even if it makes you feel uncomfortable. Your insights are valuable. Please contact me if you are okay with me occasionally sending reporters your way.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1261318637971034112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261028308445208600,"conversation_id":"1261027007548227585","created_at":1589487552000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"20:19:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For the record, I’m not a clinician, and I’m not trying to dispense medical advice on twitter. Just trying to make the point that the human element of checking on those in isolation and giving them guidance is vitally important!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1261028308445208584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261027008512954400,"conversation_id":"1261027007548227585","created_at":1589487242000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"20:14:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"Here’s what I’m telling my family and my friends: If you can, get an oximeter, a magical little device that measures your pulse and blood oxygen level from your fingertip. If you become sick and your oxygen dips below 95 or you have trouble breathing, go to the ER. Don’t wait.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1261027008512954369","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260743748755095600,"conversation_id":"1260724606333325312","created_at":1589419707000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"01:28:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Thanks, everyone, for your great recommendations and generous offers to connect me with others. I have emailed two people, so I am all set for now.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260743748755095554","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260728028835037200,"conversation_id":"1260724606333325312","created_at":1589415959000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"00:25:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Wow, Twitter. You work fast! 🙏🏼","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260728028835037195","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260724606333325300,"conversation_id":"1260724606333325312","created_at":1589415143000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"00:12:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Hey Twitter. Can you recommend any historians who might be willing to chat with me about something COVID-related? Ideally someone specializing in infectious diseases.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":59,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260724606333325312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260689752967262200,"conversation_id":"1260689715931557888","created_at":1589406834000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"21:53:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"They compare the total estimated number of infections to the number of known deaths in the state, and this gives us an estimate of the infection fatality ratio (IFR). It is about 0.6%, which is consistent with other studies. This means it is much more severe than the flu.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260689752967262208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260689750190678000,"conversation_id":"1260689715931557888","created_at":1589406833000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"21:53:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"These numbers are consistent with other studies that many infections are missed (11x), but not 50x as some think. In the study, about half of people who were either PCR or antibody positive reported no symptoms, though there can be issues with recalling mild symptoms.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260689750190678016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260689748932296700,"conversation_id":"1260689715931557888","created_at":1589406833000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"21:53:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We can use these results to estimate the total number of infections in the population (2.8% of the state is 186K infections). Since the state has confirmed 19,000 cases, this means they are detecting about 1 in every 11 infections.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260689748932296704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260689747569238000,"conversation_id":"1260689715931557888","created_at":1589406832000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"21:53:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In addition, 1.1% of people had antibodies. This number is likely uncertain as these tests can yield false positives, but overall the results indicate low levels of infection in the community. This is consistent with studies in other areas that have not had massive outbreaks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260689747569238025","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260689745891528700,"conversation_id":"1260689715931557888","created_at":1589406832000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"21:53:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"They tested 4600 people using PCR (to detect virus) and serology (to detect antibodies indicating prior infection). 1.7% of people were either acutely infected or had been infected recently enough that they were still shedding viral particles.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260689745891528705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260612484693667800,"conversation_id":"1260611520767164416","created_at":1589388412000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"16:46:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Addendum: Of course we still need a lot more testing and trained public health professionals, but education has been always been an important pillar of public health. In this case, it could also make a contact tracer's job that much easier by reducing recall bias.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260612484693667842","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260611525489934300,"conversation_id":"1260611520767164416","created_at":1589388183000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"16:43:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"... close contact with, during that infectious period starting 48 hours before they became ill. And then it goes through how they should talk to their close contacts. And by doing this now, we’re extending our reach.\" 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260611525489934338","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260611524206432300,"conversation_id":"1260611520767164416","created_at":1589388183000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"16:43:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"...tracing may have to begin without the benefit of a positive test. [The mailer] asks the person who’s been sick to document the day, the date, the time that their symptoms began, to list all the people who are in their household and all the others who they came in...\" 3/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260611524206432257","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260611523262722000,"conversation_id":"1260611520767164416","created_at":1589388182000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"16:43:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"In Fairfax County, a mailer was sent to every resident detailing what they should start doing if they come down with symptoms. That’s because while testing capacity has increased, it still remains limited — and that means...\" 2/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260611523262722049","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260585474823016400,"conversation_id":"1260564705061548035","created_at":1589381972000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"14:59:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"These are really nice examples, everyone. Keep em coming! Maybe a journalist or two can write about them... I know I like reading stories about enterprising, resourceful people in our communities.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260585474823016448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260564705061548000,"conversation_id":"1260564705061548035","created_at":1589377020000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"13:37:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Anyone have any good stories about the creative ways that small businesses are adapting to stay afloat in the time of corona? I've seen a few examples. A nail tech who started selling press-ons. More online retail. Meal delivery. Food trucks. I'd like to read more.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":57,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1260564705061548035","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259892358201688000,"conversation_id":"1259892348110221318","created_at":1589216720000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"17:05:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Ignore the haters that try to tell you most everyone is going to infected anyway so best to get it out of the way early. Keeping numbers low saves lives. Invest in science! 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":64,"likes_count":315,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259892358201688064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259598959250718700,"conversation_id":"1259597452463742977","created_at":1589146768000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"21:39:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Scientists miss their families too! We need to offer people safe, sustainable solutions here. It will never be zero risk. But can we make it very low risk?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259598959250718723","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259549895465349000,"conversation_id":"1259549205577764865","created_at":1589135071000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"18:24:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Pooled saliva testing can help lower costs. New research emerging that this can be done without greatly sacrificing sensitivity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":100,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259549895465349126","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248307341312000,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063166000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:26:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In the US, I estimate there is no more than ~5% seroprevalence. Already over 70,000 people have died! I don't see any realistic way to reach any threshold without many, many more deaths. We know the way forward - it's test, trace, isolate. Please, let's pursue that. FIN 19/19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":46,"retweets_count":166,"likes_count":556,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248307341312003","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248294418698200,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063163000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:26:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"There is also a lot we are still learning about this virus. Who is most susceptible? In what settings is it transmitted? Are fomites a key factor? What is the role of children? Does variation in individual-level viral load drive super-spreading events? 12/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":158,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248294418698247","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248287170920400,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063162000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:26:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Why do we think the network here is scale-free? Some sexual networks have been shown to be scale-free (think commercial sex workers), but why is that true for a respiratory pathogen like SARS-CoV-2? To see dramatic drops in the threshold, the tails must be very heavy. 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":114,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248287170920460","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248282448146400,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063160000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:26:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The models assume that incoming risk is equivalent to outgoing risk. In other words, are people who are the most likely to be infected also the most likely to infect others? But do we know this? This is a question I have seen raised by several network epidemiologists. 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":184,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248282448146433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248277326831600,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063159000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:25:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The basic premise is that when contact networks are highly heterogeneous, people with the most contacts are at greatest risk of infection. Once they are infected/immune, the network is more \"robust\" to future outbreaks since they break chains of transmission. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":192,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248277326831617","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259248274625761300,"conversation_id":"1259248274625761282","created_at":1589063159000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:25:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Seeing papers make the rounds that the herd immunity threshold may be much lower than the rough approximation 1-1/R0. Maybe, but let's slow down a minute.\n\n#1. There is still way too much uncertainty.\n#2. This does not qualitatively change our strategy.\n\nMy comments. 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":43,"retweets_count":542,"likes_count":1515,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259248274625761282","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259208694308503600,"conversation_id":"1259202741672558592","created_at":1589053722000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:48:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Hey buddy. It’s the weekend. Don’t tell me what to do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259208694308503554","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259208007981977600,"conversation_id":"1259202741672558592","created_at":1589053558000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:45:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Respectfully, go away.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259208007981977600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259204330940489700,"conversation_id":"1259202741672558592","created_at":1589052682000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:31:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I’ll add that the Imperial College modeling group is huge and includes many super talented women, from senior faculty on down.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259204330940489730","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259202885780373500,"conversation_id":"1259202741672558592","created_at":1589052337000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:25:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"*Special pandemic edition.*","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259202885780373507","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259202741672558600,"conversation_id":"1259202741672558592","created_at":1589052303000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:25:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Collecting examples of instances where the work of a group (comprised of men AND women) is attributed to a sole male author. Submit your favorites!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259202741672558592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259198643099271200,"conversation_id":"1259193743493730305","created_at":1589051325000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"19:08:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"When we interpret studies that assess prevalence of PCR positivity, it’s important to remember that people can be PCR positive for a long time. Shedding viral RNA is not the same as being acutely infected/contagious.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1259198643099271168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258914741541572600,"conversation_id":"1258912181569163264","created_at":1588983638000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"00:20:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For the vast majority of people, infection causes mild illness only. But I worry that we focus on IFR as the only metric of severity while ignoring long-term morbidity (not yet well characterized). A long stay in the ICU is no joke. How does this factor into our calculus?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":350,"likes_count":1315,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1258914741541572610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258912184425427000,"conversation_id":"1258912181569163264","created_at":1588983028000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"00:10:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"“... We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":414,"likes_count":1482,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1258912184425426949","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258912183288762400,"conversation_id":"1258912181569163264","created_at":1588983028000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"00:10:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"“... There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise...”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":645,"likes_count":1601,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1258912183288762368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258533381043744800,"conversation_id":"1258527538256547841","created_at":1588892715000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"23:05:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Let’s have a serious discussion about the negative consequences of lockdowns and sustainable ways to move forward. But I am very stressed about what is likely to happen in the next month in some US states. Lots of preventable deaths. It feels like letting the raptors loose.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":187,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1258533381043744768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258016475450916900,"conversation_id":"1258015880371453953","created_at":1588769475000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"12:51:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Not to mention, I have talked to many people outside academia who interpret “Assistant Professor” as meaning assistant TO a professor. Like I book their travel and manage their emails. (Seriously.) So maybe Natalie Dean, PhD, would be a better chyron.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":224,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1258016475450916866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257854811313143800,"conversation_id":"1257853323371298816","created_at":1588730931000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:08:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Also, I’m very tired of people saying that herd immunity is not Sweden’s strategy. The author is directly advising the Swedish government. He is saying don’t bother to stop spread. What am I missing?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257854811313143809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257812086136230000,"conversation_id":"1257811353995264006","created_at":1588720745000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"23:19:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In the quest for quiet babies, we are off to a very poor start. 🥴","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257812086136229889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257637735612981200,"conversation_id":"1257637733918441473","created_at":1588679176000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"11:46:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The book is about innovations that come from within communities rather than from outside (cough cough, academia). People everywhere are highly resourceful, and they know how to navigate their local contexts. So instead of trying to teach, we should be eager to learn.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257637735612981249","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257327762542600200,"conversation_id":"1257327757287215106","created_at":1588605273000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"15:14:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"The key will be for countries not to let their guard down too soon. They must roll out a testing and contact-tracing infrastructure that will allow them to identify outbreaks early, isolate, quarantine. In the US, this is a realistic goal if there’s enough political willpower.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257327762542600194","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257327761519194000,"conversation_id":"1257327757287215106","created_at":1588605273000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"15:14:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"But what about the economy? Sweden is the future... not because of a herd immunity strategy. Because a more targeted approach to social distancing can be deployed when the timing calls for it, when old-fashioned public health methods can foster a gradual easing of restrictions.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257327761519194117","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257327760504225800,"conversation_id":"1257327757287215106","created_at":1588605272000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"15:14:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"Sweden demonstrates that a targeted herd immunity strategy doesn’t do much to protect at-risk populations either... In a more densely populated country like the US, with a larger proportion of vulnerable people, the human toll of a herd immunity strategy could be devastating.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257327760504225793","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257327758981640200,"conversation_id":"1257327757287215106","created_at":1588605272000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"15:14:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"\"The American people are far less healthy than Swedes. They have significantly higher rates of diabetes and hypertension, two of the most-risky underlying conditions. Four out of every 10 Americans are obese.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257327758981640193","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257069664187932700,"conversation_id":"1257069662849961985","created_at":1588543737000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"22:08:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We can study these differences through contact tracing, serosurveys with data collected on risk factors, and universal PCR testing at a venue. Coupled with a biological understanding of the virus spreads, we can narrow in on better prevention strategies.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1257069664187932673","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256991006404292600,"conversation_id":"1256990955191914496","created_at":1588524984000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"16:56:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"This is meant to highlight some of the best aspects I see, and is not an endorsement of these countries’ overall strategies. There is still a long way to go, but we should pay close attention to how even places with limited resources respond (= hard work, people power). 7/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256991006404292608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256990998565138400,"conversation_id":"1256990955191914496","created_at":1588524982000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"16:56:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The Ugandan health authorities are testing around 1,000 truck drivers a day. But many of those who test positive have come from Tanzania and Kenya, countries that are not monitoring as aggressively. 3/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256990998565138432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256990995511681000,"conversation_id":"1256990955191914496","created_at":1588524981000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"16:56:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Sierra Leone repurposed disease-tracking protocols established for Ebola. The government set up emergency operations centers in every district and recruited 14,000 community health workers, including 1,500 contact tracers. 2/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256990995511681026","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256962197256839200,"conversation_id":"1256962197256839168","created_at":1588518115000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"15:01:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Things I notice! Being addressed by a journalist as Dr. Dean. Replying that my availability is unpredictable because I have two small kids. Receiving a reply back addressed to Ms. Dean. Call me Natalie - that’s no problem! But Ms. Dean? 🤨","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":570,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256962197256839168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256351500374290400,"conversation_id":"1256351496301617152","created_at":1588372514000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"22:35:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"In my opinion, “managed infection” is giving up! Giving up on test, trace, isolate. Digital tracing. Universal testing. Pre-exposure prophylaxis. Sustainable changes to our behavior. I’m NOT saying it will be easy, but accepting that so much death is inevitable is insane! END","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":51,"retweets_count":154,"likes_count":648,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256351500374290432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256351499753590800,"conversation_id":"1256351496301617152","created_at":1588372514000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"22:35:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"So what is the alternative? Lockdown until a vaccine is not tenable, particularly in the developing world. But why are those our only choices? I don’t think New Zealand and South Korea need to be in lockdown for the next 12-18 months. So why do the rest of us?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":268,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256351499753590791","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256351498973466600,"conversation_id":"1256351496301617152","created_at":1588372513000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"22:35:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Any strategy that does not aim to protect EVERYONE from infection will put EVERYONE at risk. Young people work at nursing homes, or live with their parents. The world is not neatly separated into high risk and low risk. The virus will not respect these divides.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":253,"likes_count":716,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256351498973466625","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256351498340044800,"conversation_id":"1256351496301617152","created_at":1588372513000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"22:35:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"I believe that those who support “managed” infection strategies are underestimating the true impact on morbidity and mortality (the numbers are staggering!). And they are over-estimating their ability to “manage” a virus that has so quickly gotten out of hand.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":100,"likes_count":366,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256351498340044800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256351497274773500,"conversation_id":"1256351496301617152","created_at":1588372513000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"22:35:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some will say “herd immunity is not the strategy, it is the outcome.” It is the strategy that I think is bad! The idea is to slow but not eliminate transmission in the young, while walling off those at high risk. Transmission slows once enough young people have been infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1256351497274773504","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255859956441649200,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588255321000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"14:02:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"... We can’t just look at prevalence of infection by age without adjusting somehow for exposure. This is where contact tracing studies are useful (condition on contact with a known case). Also, modeling studies that incorporate population-level changes in contact patterns.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255859956441649152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255859625003569200,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588255242000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"14:00:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Addendum: Some have raised the great point that contact patterns for kids have changed with school closures. We want to know if kids are less likely to be infected GIVEN exposure, but they may be less exposed if they are home. Adults, on the other hand, may need to work...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255859625003569159","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255830146357112800,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588248213000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"12:03:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"This is in no way meant to be a comprehensive summary of the topic (feel free to add more to the comments), but rather my “this is why the science is not settled” take. I’ve seen good evidence supporting all possibilities, so I am reserving judgment for now. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255830146357112832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255830145342079000,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588248213000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"12:03:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Some studies have looked at viral loads in kids. The hypothesis is that if kids have similar viral loads to adults, then they could be similarly infectious. These studies are helpful, but maybe it’s easier to find kids who are PCR positive for longer? 7/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255830145342078978","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255830144423547000,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588248213000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"12:03:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"But we have other kinds of evidence. Anecdotes that we rarely saw household clusters in China that were started by kids. Serology can help us sort this out somewhat since we don’t need to get the timing just right to study who got infected in a household. 6/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255830144423546881","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255830143563698200,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588248213000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"12:03:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Our group also tried to assess whether kids, once infected, are less infectious. That is even harder to answer! It is in part based on relative timing of cases in a chain of transmission. Are kids more likely to be the first case? Or the last? We would need more data. 5/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255830143563698176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255830140342415400,"conversation_id":"1255830131437862913","created_at":1588248212000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"12:03:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"We know kids are being infected. A small number of kids even get severely ill, but that does not mean kids are infected often nor does it mean they are very infectious. 2/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255830140342415361","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255675504058724400,"conversation_id":"1255675500212543488","created_at":1588211344000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"01:49:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"The virus spreads easily because there is no prior immunity in the population. We have seen this disease overwhelm healthcare systems. Results of antibody studies do not change our course of action. We can only lift lockdowns if we are prepared to test, trace and isolate. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":80,"likes_count":329,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255675504058724352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255675503165362200,"conversation_id":"1255675500212543488","created_at":1588211343000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"01:49:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Is the IFR 0.5-1%? Or is it 0.1-0.2% as the Santa Clara and LA studies suggest. Ignoring the fact that 0.1% IFR implies that all 8 million people in NYC have already been infected (which we doubt), we argue that a low number doesn't mean that shutdowns were an over-reaction. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":142,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255675503165362176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255675502259400700,"conversation_id":"1255675500212543488","created_at":1588211343000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"01:49:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Second, these studies confirm what we expected. Infection fatality ratio is lower than the crude case fatality ratio. 5% observed CFR in the US is an over-estimate because it excludes mild cases. Including asymptomatic infections (IFR) drops severity even lower. 3/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":93,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255675502259400704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255675501328228400,"conversation_id":"1255675500212543488","created_at":1588211343000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"01:49:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"First, the unfortunate reality is that we are a long ways from herd immunity. Even in the hardest hit populations, like New York City, 20% prevalence is not 60-70%. If we lift lockdowns without proper precautions, we should expect a resurgence. 2/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":152,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255675501328228352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255265958798733300,"conversation_id":"1255265645790445570","created_at":1588113700000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"22:41:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"VERY SMART REPORTERS*** (I'm not remaking this thread.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255265958798733313","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255265645790445600,"conversation_id":"1255265645790445570","created_at":1588113626000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"22:40:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"A new experience for me is that I talk to at least one (if not several) very reporters a day. Over the last two weeks I have answered A LOT of questions about serosurveys. A thread sharing some of the resulting stories.\n\n#scicomm","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":251,"hashtags":["#scicomm"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255265645790445570","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255211258737025000,"conversation_id":"1255211258737025027","created_at":1588100659000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"19:04:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"IFR = infection fatality rate or ratio?\n\nThese are used interchangeably. Though rate is more commonly used, ratio is more technically correct. The denominator is number infected (so IFR cannot exceed 1). I prefer to reserve rate for when the denominator has different units.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255211258737025027","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255106921490776000,"conversation_id":"1255104900603826179","created_at":1588075783000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"12:09:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"Recall that the original UK plan involved cocooning of the elderly, but I know I was not alone in thinking this was thin on details. Diverse expertise is needed to inform all levels of decision-making.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1255106921490776064","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254907246242390000,"conversation_id":"1254906141009743877","created_at":1588028177000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"22:56:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"This is important when planning COVID trials because current hotspots will hopefully bring their outbreaks under control. Many trials in China remain under-enrolled because the outbreak there was contained. This could easily happen to single site trials in the US.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1254907246242390025","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254513919386964000,"conversation_id":"1254510997991292929","created_at":1587934400000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"20:53:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1005085697018138600,"username":"nataliexdean","name":"Natalie E. Dean, PhD","place":"","tweet":"For those who aren’t familiar with the concept of universal testing, it refers to testing people without symptoms. This is part of a key strategy for HIV known as “test-and-treat.” And it is particularly useful for pathogens with extensive pre-symptomatic transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1254513919386963968","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1005085697018138624","username":"nataliexdean"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
