{"id":1274075328957362200,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592598204000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:23:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The same considerations apply to other vaccines. Bottom line -- while getting some answer about vaccine efficacy is extremely urgent, understanding its effects on infection/infectiousness and knowing if it works well in elderly will be crucial to planning how to deploy a vaccine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274075328957362176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274074894481928200,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592598100000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:21:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"So there are grounds to hope -- either because macaques are different from humans and/or because the typical dose to which a person is exposed is lower, and the vaccine may work better at such doses, that humans will be at least partially protected vs infection/contagiousness","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274074894481928195","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274073534537642000,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592597776000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:16:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"When you do an experimental infection, especially with precious animals in the lab like macaques, you typically look for a \"challenge\" dose that is high enough so that nearly all challenged animals will get infected, if not vaccinated.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274073534537641989","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274071218002563000,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592597224000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:07:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Those others may not get a vaccine (because of limited supply or other reasons) or it may not work as well in them (as many vaccines, for example don't work as well in the elderly).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274071218002563073","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274070945653809200,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592597159000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:05:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Herd immunity matters for COVID vaccines for several reasons -- most importantly, it will make a given number of vaccines provide more benefit -- as with nearly all other vaccines -- as vaccinating some reduces transmission to others","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274070945653809153","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274070642434982000,"conversation_id":"1274068189266272257","created_at":1592597086000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"20:04:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"If true of any vaccine, this will be very unfortunate. Reduction in the risk of infection -- and onward transmission -- is the basis of herd immunity. A vaccine that protects against disease but not infection or transmission would help recipients but not the rest of us.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1274070642434981890","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270356766610657300,"conversation_id":"1270356766610657280","created_at":1591711629000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"14:07:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"#Covidtwitter Is there an analysis out there of probability of infection among known contacts of a case according to source age (besides RIVM) and according to contact age?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":84,"hashtags":["#covidtwitter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1270356766610657280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269681124781052000,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591550544000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"17:22:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The incorrect tweets were deleted and replaced with the corrected calculation","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269681124781051907","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269680717002354700,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591550447000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"17:20:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I just found an arithmetic error above in this string. Apologies. reducing transmission 1% still helps a lot and more than the toll estimated for 1 day of protests, but had missed a decimal place.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269680717002354692","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269671468708872200,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591548242000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:44:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"We can support the protests by reducing transmission to reduce the number of deaths that they (and we in all our other normal activities) cause.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269671468708872192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269671267122196500,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591548194000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:43:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I offer the comparison simply to point out the risk of trying to assign responsibility to one decision in the face of all the dependencies -- consequences of infectious disease cases are dependent on the transmission environment, which is in our control.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269671267122196480","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269670955498029000,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591548119000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:41:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Any effort to assign numbers to one activity is full of assumptions, including the assumption that R stays constant over time -- something we can change if we choose by making greater efforts to suppress transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269670955498029057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269670812585537500,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591548085000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:41:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"My conclusion is that we should be trying to work together to fight injustice, reduce transmission, and where possible resume some normal activities, including protests.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269670812585537536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269668219196932000,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591547467000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:31:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"managed to do so. This would massively overshadow the effects of the protests. Lots more assumptions required to quantify that, but let's think on the average level over the country. Suppose that the mean R went down from assumed 0.95 to 0.94. Then (again very roughly)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269668219196932098","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269666825962434600,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591547135000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:25:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Casinos are indoors, crowded, and I bet most gamblers aren't wearing masks. What numbers of transmissions are happening there? At Lake of the Ozarks (again, shouting, crowding, no masks)? etc.?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":133,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269666825962434560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269665432874758100,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591546803000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:20:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"to me for a mildly transmissible virus (R0~2-5 uncontrolled) this seems like a big jump. It's a matter of intuition in the absence of data.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269665432874758147","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269664579015057400,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591546599000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:16:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But R near 1 was arbitrarily chosen to be 0.95, and this has a huge influence on results. with R=0.9, N=10, so half as many cases / deaths; with R=0.98, N=50, so 5 times as many. This number is probably the most sensitive -- and least supported -- input into the calculation.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":80,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269664579015057410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269663899361718300,"conversation_id":"1269663266063757318","created_at":1591546437000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"16:13:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"First on the math: this is critically dependent on the value chosen for \"R~1\" because in a branching process with R<1, the ultimate number of cases eventually caused by one case is N=1/(1-R) -- the sum of a geometric series with a=1 and r=R. Thus for R=.95, N=20.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269663899361718275","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269396278133358600,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591482631000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"22:30:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Corrollary to #1: If  using someone else's data, don't let excitement at the possibilities for papers without the hassle of gathering the data oneself blind one to due diligence on data quality and provenance. As a frequent user of data collected by others I recognize the risk.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269396278133358592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269264414160666600,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591451192000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:46:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But certainly the general point is that saying \"peer review can/should do x\" is realistic -- if at all--only in the context of the other parts of scientific functioning.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269264414160666625","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269264181079036000,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591451137000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:45:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Overall perhaps my metaphor was off a little -- given the interdependence of these parts of the process, it seems a better metaphor is that they are all strands in one safety net, and when several strands are weak they make the whole thing weak.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269264181079035907","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269263943249342500,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591451080000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:44:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"(those who are transparent are also in my experience more careful) here again, replication is most needed where it is hardest to do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":82,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269263943249342465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269263755831099400,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591451035000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:43:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"As before replication is likely to be most effective when it is least needed -- when transparency has been scrupulously observed to make replication easier. But both causally (being transparent with your data and code helps you find flaws) and temperamentally...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269263755831099392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269263411537379300,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591450953000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:42:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"...have limited time esp in a pandemic.  Post-publication peer review is another layer (timing ambiguous in the preprint era, before or after formal publication). And finally replication by other labs is the last layer.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269263411537379328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269262733041688600,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591450791000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:39:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The next layer is peer review. Depending on how well the other layers have been done, and on how much time the peer reviewers and editors devote, this can be a  strong part of the net (probably strongest when least needed, as transparency enhances peer review) or a fallible one","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269262733041688577","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269261798416560000,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591450569000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:36:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Layer 3 is transparency -- to the extent practicable, make code, data and other resources for replication available to others. This is costly -- sharing usable code is time consuming, and trades off with other forms of productivity. \"Open Science\" is a good principle, but costly.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":277,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269261798416560136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269260948369440800,"conversation_id":"1269260948369440779","created_at":1591450366000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"13:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"In light of the retractions it's worth remembering: Peer review is one imperfect part of the at-least 4-part safety net that keeps science functioning. Layer 1 is basic ethics among investigators: don't make up or misrepresent data.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":540,"likes_count":1845,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1269260948369440779","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266195230073786400,"conversation_id":"1266194474721579008","created_at":1590719442000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"02:30:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Elegant thinking (though I must admit there is a simple and intuitive argument underlying a possibly overcomplex model here) and why we need broad science and continuing flow of ideas from other disciplines to epidemiology","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1266195230073786369","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264592712822653000,"conversation_id":"1264591791107563521","created_at":1590337372000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"16:22:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Sorry Florian it just brought back a memory of making that joke to my Swiss German friend who was enjoying the defeat of the French soccer team by a third country.  He protested “no no that IS a German word”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1264592712822652928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264383084285300700,"conversation_id":"1264381301647441923","created_at":1590287393000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:29:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"And suggestions welcome. We are a bit out of our zone of expertise, know this can be helpful but also know the approach can benefit from accumulated knowledge of those studying health disparities for years.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1264383084285300736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263299319609938000,"conversation_id":"1263296963627356161","created_at":1590029003000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:43:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"There is no actual policy content to the debate as he and sidekicks have been framing it. It is extremely hard to construct a scientifically admirable motive for doing one readily criticized study after another and promoting it on noted anti-science talk shows.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":209,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1263299319609937921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263298743203516400,"conversation_id":"1263296963627356161","created_at":1590028865000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:41:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Particularly because if the IFR is in the middle of his claimed range (0.2%), which it very likely isn't, and if the proportion at risk of getting infected is 5-10x seasonal flu, then the policy conclusion is we need to prevent crashing health systems.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1263298743203516417","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263297827897303000,"conversation_id":"1263296963627356161","created_at":1590028647000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:37:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"This is quite a run of papers saying \"see, my priors were right\" from Dr. Ioannidis. Punctuated with occasional appearances in front of such truth-seeking bodies as Laura Ingraham's show and the Arizona House of Representatives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":161,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1263297827897303040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263297472757149700,"conversation_id":"1263296963627356161","created_at":1590028563000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:36:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I don't actually agree with that as a literal statement (and offered a \"proof\" of why it's wrong 10y ago at Bruce's 70th birthday. But it gets at a deep truth that serious scientists keep seeking evidence that they are wrong so they can get righter.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1263297472757149696","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260424368691257300,"conversation_id":"1260422827838255109","created_at":1589343561000,"date":"2020-05-13","time":"04:19:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Those who take observ data seriously are often more rigorous on questions of external validity.  So I’d say we should all vote for rigor and see EBM as a set of heuristics that sometimes are rigorous and sometimes limit clear thought.  All this related but diff from articles","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1260424368691257345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259938270408040400,"conversation_id":"1259938270408040448","created_at":1589227666000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"20:07:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"You know it's the Time of COVID when you have used your earbuds so much that the little rubber cup gets stuck in your ear and you spend 5 min trying to get it out. Tweezers are an essential part of the COVID Zoomers survival kit.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":306,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259938270408040448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259073540759969800,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589021499000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:51:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"So bottom line these preprints make a  v important point but I’m not celebrating.  Hers immunity is still a long way off in most places.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":94,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259073540759969792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259071184521638000,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589020937000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:42:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"4. For moderate R0 2-3 the 1-1/R0 threshold is sharply lower than the overshoot amount 1-f = exp(-R0 f).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259071184521637889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259069962397892600,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589020646000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:37:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I don’t know if this is right or not but it has gotten little discussion on Twitter that I have seen and it pushes herd estimates up.  Have heard Ruian Ke the senior author present and not found major problem with the totality of evidence for this view for certain pops.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259069962397892609","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259067796266397700,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589020129000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:28:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"In an extreme case we could reach a level of immunity in the pop that suppressed transmission under the contact patterns in social distancing and find that with a new “peacetime” distribution of who contacts whom some of the formerly low exposure are now high exposure & at risk","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259067796266397696","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259067061822783500,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589019954000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:25:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"2.  The lower threshold depends on assuming the heterogeneity is permanent. Is a low risk person is always low risk.  So if it depends on behavior for example it could change and thus increase the threshold back to theoretical max.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259067061822783489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259065786771165200,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1589019650000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"10:20:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Several caveats for those who think this fundamentally changes our policy thinking. 1 while any heterogeneity will have some effect we don’t know how much exists for COVID. A hallmark has been relatively even infection rates by age though each study shows some variation","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1259065786771165185","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258832650124566500,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588964066000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:54:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"A more careful way to say it is that up to half/two thirds must become infected to get to herd immunity if R0 = 2 or 3, though likely less due to heterogeneity. However those proportions are correct if we are relying on vaccination for immunity , unless we can target vaccine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":159,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258832650124566530","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258832307286413300,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963984000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:53:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Since the early days of the pandemic, many of us have gotten a little sloppy and started using the simple well-mixed model numbers without qualification -- half must get immune if R0=2, two-thirds if R0=3. These preprints are good reminders that this is not strictly true.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":48,"likes_count":195,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258832307286413312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258831576416374800,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963810000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:50:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"It was partly awareness of this effect that made me -- early on in this pandemic to say I though 20-60% might get infected before herd immunity (even earlier I said 40-70%) even though most estimates were R0>2 implying in the absence of heterogeneity that 50%+ would get infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":108,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258831576416374784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258831077487063000,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963691000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:48:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"To generalize -- those in some far off part of the transmission network may look like the \"less susceptible\" or \"less exposed\" but may be just as much in need of vaccine as others.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":98,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258831077487063040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258830802584043500,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963625000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:47:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"A related point: identifying those who are most exposed or susceptible to getting infected may be harder than it looks. People on an island may be low-exposure in the sense that the infection will likely come to them only late, but once it is there it can transmit efficiently.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":121,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258830802584043527","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258830496236286000,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963552000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:45:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"To do that we have to be able to identify them -- sometimes easier than others.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258830496236285952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258830396600574000,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963529000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:45:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The idea of vaccinating or treating \"core groups\" in infectious diseases (kids for flu or pneumococcal disease, highly active persons for STIs) is to try to gain that same advantage for our interventions -- more bang for the buck by intervening on the transmitters.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258830396600573960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258830150357180400,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963470000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:44:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Naturally acquired immunity can get away with less because it is naturally targeted -- the high risk people matter most to transmission and are likely to get infected first. Vaccination (at random) doesn't do that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":42,"likes_count":172,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258830150357180416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258829946291716000,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963421000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:43:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"First a few technical points. The preprints make a valid and important point. An important thing to point out, as Britton emphasizes, is that the proportion that need to get effectively vaccinated at random in a population to achieve the \"herd immunity threshold\" remains 1-1/R0.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258829946291716098","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258829527150735400,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963321000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:42:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"So virus transmission disproportionately removes those most useful to it from contributing to future transmission (if they become immune).  The size of the effect varies depending on how much & what kind of heterogeneity occurs, but can plausibly be more than 10 percentage points","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":50,"likes_count":191,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258829527150735361","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258828754622783500,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963137000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:38:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"This difference in approach leads to a common finding: the most exposed/susceptible people in the population are more likely to be infected, and their infection is a bigger \"hit\" to the virus's transmission because they were more efficient spreaders.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":214,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258828754622783489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258828436300234800,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588963061000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:37:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Britton et al. use social mixing matrices, which combine individual-level heterogeneity in (at least exposure) with age-structured mixing, so that one varies not only in HOW MANY exposures one has, but also TO WHOM.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258828436300234752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258828138399891500,"conversation_id":"1258827506930667523","created_at":1588962990000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"18:36:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"They are complementary. Both consider the impact of individual heterogeneity. Gomes et al. consider a well-mixed model with individuals varying in their rates of exposure or probabiity of infection given exposure (susceptibility).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":118,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258828138399891458","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258108652126384000,"conversation_id":"1258099453283745793","created_at":1588791451000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"18:57:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Careful matching and stratification by risk can help but local network effects can still create bias.  Most problematic if seropositives are unprotected or weakly protected.  Less of a problem if strong immunity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258108652126384128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258108102873882600,"conversation_id":"1258099453283745793","created_at":1588791320000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"18:55:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"...so those enrolled earlier in their local epidemic are more likely seronrgative and exposed to higher hazard of infection.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258108102873882627","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258107656037900300,"conversation_id":"1258099453283745793","created_at":1588791214000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"18:53:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Often direction will be positive. People at higher infection risk in the past will continue to be at higher risk of re-infection.  Our paper shows that can happen but also the opposite: confounding makes seropositiviy look protective when epidemic is controlled....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258107656037900293","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258100756042985500,"conversation_id":"1258099453283745793","created_at":1588789569000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"18:26:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Seroprotection studies in #COVID19 willbe quite challenging.Because we are trying to study we got to the fact of one infection against future infection, Exposure and outcome are essentially the same event at different times. This creates many opportunities for confounding.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258100756042985474","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258007500189728800,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588767335000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"12:15:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"It may be a normative/descriptive thing -- narrow ways of thinking exist in science but I hate to see them legitimized as ways of doing science (normative-ish), rather than as professional rules of thumb/habits (descriptive-ish).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258007500189728768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258007128327041000,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588767246000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"12:14:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Several suggest the article and I may not disagree that much. Will take a fresh look and perhaps write something more conventional than a tweet thread.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1258007128327041024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257867664396963800,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588733995000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:59:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Good science is good science, and good scientists are flexible thinkers not wedded to arbitrary rules. Finis.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":42,"likes_count":257,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257867664396963840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257867113164951600,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588733864000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:57:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Serious scientists in both traditions use theory for hypotheses & guidance when evidence is scarce, use data of all kinds to test all theories & slay wrong ones, & realize that decisionmaking under uncertainty rationally weights type 1 and 2 errors differently according to costs.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257867113164951552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257866435340177400,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588733702000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:55:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But what they have to offer -- the good stuff -- is that both already value theory and evidence. Emphasis may be different, frameworks for thinking may be different, but rational thinking is rational thinking, and blind adherence to arbitrary principles isn't it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257866435340177409","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257866161892593700,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588733637000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:53:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Last, the conclusion (like the title) is just misleading. The body said that public health epi as defined here combines theory with evidence. The conclusion is that we need the best of both worlds. Surely, clinical epi has much to offer, as does the public health tradition.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257866161892593666","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257863134670459000,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588732915000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:41:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Rationality (roughly, Bayesian decision theory) takes into account the costs of inaction and of action when deciding. Fanatical devotion to tenets of \"evidence based\" decisions would recommend staying on the traintracks until an RCT showed  benefits of evading an oncoming train.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":69,"likes_count":251,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257863134670458880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257861415018340400,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588732505000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:35:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Clinical epidemiologists who are rational about decision making under uncertainty understand that with noncommunicable diseases, inaction in the face of uncertainty is rational (it is unlikely to get much worse or better if we do nothing), but not so for infectious disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":109,"likes_count":422,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257861415018340353","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257859633873633300,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588732081000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:28:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But from here the article just misunderstands our fields. First, to clarify (pace the headline), as the author notes, public health epidemiologists (as he calls us) privilege models and evidence, not models over evidence. That's just the headline, not a fault of the article.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257859633873633281","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257858941402386400,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588731916000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:25:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Clinical epidemiology, and specifically the evidence-based medicine tradition within clinical epidemiology, does privilege randomized evidence over anything else, as do some economists and sects within other fields.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257858941402386439","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257858402186940400,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588731787000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:23:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I'd call that bayesian reasoning, which is awfully close to my working definition of rationality. Of course randomized evidence is in some ways more precise and convincing than nonrandomized evidence. But ignoring nonrandomized evidence is a recipe for a short miserable life.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257858402186940421","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257857964175765500,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588731683000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:21:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"It gets right that \"Public health epidemiology uses theory... to model infection and understand patterns and causes of disease.  Public health epidemiology also relies on a diversity of data.\" Thank you for that description of our field at its best.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":103,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257857964175765510","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257857389304385500,"conversation_id":"1257857079756365824","created_at":1588731546000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"02:19:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I appreciate the effort to figure out what is going on with the debates over the pandemic response. But I think this article gets a few things right and a number of key points wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257857389304385536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253504326724718600,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587693695000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"02:01:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But after trying earnestly to understand the issues while talking to the reporter, I feel ambushed by being quoted with a technical objection to the strategy. I wonder how others quoted in the story feel. Lesson learned: amateur journalist on the loose.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":298,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253504326724718593","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253503925866639400,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587693599000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"01:59:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But the bigger problem is that a herd immunity strategy will cost many lives. W/o question India should  slow transmission as much as possible and protect the vulnerable. How to balance COVID damage with the damage of physical distancing is an awful tradeoff each country faces.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":82,"likes_count":252,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253503925866639365","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253503213183152000,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587693429000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"01:57:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Perhaps almost anyone would agree with that. The Bloomberg story instead says that Ramanan advocates a herd immunity strategy (maybe he does, not sure) and that I think the main problem with it is that maybe herd immunity is not that great.  That is a problem.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":108,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253503213183152130","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253502822416597000,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587693336000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"01:55:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I am not sure if I understood Ramanan's point from his slide deck, but if I understood it, I agree with the narrow statement: intense temporary social distancing is worse than sustained mild social distancing, even if the former temporarily gets R<1 and the latter allows R>1","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":164,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253502822416596998","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253501426820677600,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587693003000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"01:50:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Therefore the slide deck seemed to argue 3) better than intense lockdown now, followed by nothing, is a milder social distancing, plus shielding the at-risk, which will flatten the curve somewhat but let the epidemic go through the population because it's inadequate for R<1","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253501426820677633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253501006329102300,"conversation_id":"1253499747697975298","created_at":1587692903000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"01:48:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"2) Keeping the strict lockdown on and then lifting will delay a horrific epidemic without shrinking it appreciably. 1) seems reasonable (I'm not an expert in economics or India) and 2) is consistent with what we know about epidemics.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253501006329102342","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253049451377315800,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587585244000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:54:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The literature I have read on household transmission is quite variable, and may depend a lot on whether it is a proportion obtained during extreme social distancing, when household is the main venue left for transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253049451377315840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253048818083541000,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587585093000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:51:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Links provided above for Korea and Singapore say that cases usually are in homes but clearly not always","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253048818083540992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038725761810400,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587582687000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:11:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Not only is the plan harmful to civil liberties and human rights, but it would also be highly resource-intensive, which could distract from more effective measures.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253038725761810433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038550632870000,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587582645000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Some interventions may be needed which exceed the powers of the state that are acceptable in normal times. But the dubious justification offered for out-of-home, mandatory quarantine is doubly dangerous.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253038550632869893","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038451181736000,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587582621000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:10:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Enacting intrusive policies in the absence of strong evidence for their effectiveness sets a worrying precedent of weakly justified government over-reach.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253038451181735938","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253038338153603000,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587582594000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:09:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Fineberg, Kim, and Shlain’s recommendation also ignores the risk that individuals may avoid getting tested so that they aren’t separated from their families.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253038338153603074","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253037947730956300,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587582501000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:08:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"This alarming blow to Americans’ liberties is not justified by existing evidence and could have unintended negative consequences. As noted in our comment, the Wuhan study has significant methodological limitations.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1253037947730956295","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252717804370919400,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587506173000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"21:56:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line: Pan et al. JAMA paper's call for mandatory out of home quarantine as a policy solution is based on faulty calculations. Do them differently and you get the opposite answer.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1252717804370919435","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252716809469509600,"conversation_id":"1252715853214371841","created_at":1587505936000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"21:52:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"We add to these questions by noting the conclusion sensitively depends on use of Cori et al. method rather than Wallinga-Teunis -- both useful for different purposes, but the choice of method here makes decline in R(t) appear later than it really is.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1252716809469509633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251731190756839400,"conversation_id":"1251731190756839424","created_at":1587270946000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"04:35:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"I have deleted all tweets I could find about Eric Ding. The impact of these was more hurtful than I realized, and while I strongly disagree with many of his actions and statements, I do not wish to cause unhappiness by expressing those disagreements.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":143,"retweets_count":53,"likes_count":959,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1251731190756839424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251551103818379300,"conversation_id":"1251550013584551937","created_at":1587228010000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"16:40:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"This document focuses importantly on the fact that if a particular group does not have its health outcomes monitored, it cannot get the resources needed to improve those outcomes. Powerful case for racial/ethnic/etc reporting of COVID outcomes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1251551103818379273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250251996658991000,"conversation_id":"1250251458546733058","created_at":1586918279000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"02:37:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Or any of 200 others who do this stuff for a living","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1250251996658991104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248065033453678600,"conversation_id":"1248060050607951872","created_at":1586396866000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"01:47:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"A better analogy would be the risk of dying by the Sunday after a cancer dx because it’s not even clear what fraction of the pandemic we have observed by the end of the study period. Likewise not clear how much person time the inane death-by-Sunday quantity estimates risk for","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1248065033453678592","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245110034058576000,"conversation_id":"1245110034058575877","created_at":1585692339000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"22:05:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Just like people now discuss how cloning  a gene used to be a PhD and is now an afternoon, I look forward to the day when people recall that formatting an article f/ journal submission used to take most of a day when A COMPUTER COULD DO IT IF JOURNALS JUST INVESTED & STANDARDIZED","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":77,"likes_count":839,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1245110034058575877","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244652271297855500,"conversation_id":"1244652271297855488","created_at":1585583200000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"15:46:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"You know life is weird when you spend your days alternating between urgent conference calls and editing google docs with names like \"Liferaft\" and \"Frankenstein.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":205,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1244652271297855488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243378309670420500,"conversation_id":"1243377511939145728","created_at":1585279464000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:24:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Well the paper came first and the USG request after.  Not quite backstory😀","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243378309670420482","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243375696136855600,"conversation_id":"1243372361098936320","created_at":1585278841000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:14:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"Real criticism of science most welcome. But read it first and don’t assume that all deaths are known and that tiny unrepresentative samples extrapolate.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":68,"likes_count":610,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243375696136855554","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243374228734345200,"conversation_id":"1243372361098936320","created_at":1585278491000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:08:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"The idea that covid is less severe than seasonal flu is inconsistent with data and with the fact that an epidemic just gathering steam can overwhelm ICU capacity in a rich country like Italy or China.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":381,"likes_count":1519,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243374228734345217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243356285585649700,"conversation_id":"1243347447537115136","created_at":1585274213000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"01:56:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"It is a fundamental scientific error to take the current success of containment in some places as a sign that permanent containment is possible. We should work to make it possible, but 1918 flu and, frankly, the germ theory of disease show that containment is a temporary victory","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":87,"retweets_count":1291,"likes_count":5258,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243356285585649664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243355885369348000,"conversation_id":"1243347447537115136","created_at":1585274118000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"01:55:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But this virus has shown in countries around the world that it can spread rapidly, and a small problem can become a big problem -- that is how exponential growth works.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":405,"likes_count":2632,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243355885369348096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243355643756433400,"conversation_id":"1243347447537115136","created_at":1585274060000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"01:54:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"On a simpler level, saying that \"facts on the ground\" are not consistent with 20% of the population getting infected is really quite deceptive. Likely, no population has 20% yet infected (though we can't be completely sure until serologic testing is widespread).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":30,"retweets_count":554,"likes_count":2965,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243355643756433408","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243355202276581400,"conversation_id":"1243347447537115136","created_at":1585273955000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"01:52:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":75937326,"username":"mlipsitch","name":"Marc Lipsitch","place":"","tweet":"But it would be extremely naive to imagine that they are likely, and what do I know, but it seems like bad politics to \"assure\" the American people that they will come to pass when so many things could go wrong, any one of which leads to much worse outcomes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":414,"likes_count":2719,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243355202276581376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"75937326","username":"mlipsitch"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
