{"id":1252283903118905300,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402723000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"The other vaccines in development are in some ways likely to be better than this inactivated viral vaccine. They use modern adjuvants that tell the immune system to make the right kind of antibodies (for scientists: TH1-skewing towards IgG1) instead of wrong ones (IgG4).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283903118905345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283900954624000,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402722000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"...which can make the disease worse. That happened in case of SARS1. A vaccine that introduced just a part of SARS1 (vaccinia vector encoding full-length spike protein) into rhesus macaque monkey was successful in generating...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283900954624010","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283900103098400,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402722000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"...or attacking a police officer (immune cell). But imagine that a police dog grabs a criminal by the pant leg, slowing him but leaving him free to turn on the police officers drawn to the skirmish. That can happen and cause virus to be more likely to infect immune cells...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283900103098368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283899058753500,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402722000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"If you’ve read my explanation of antibodies as being like police dogs that grab onto part of a bad guy (see pinned thread), then antibody-dogs are most effective when they grab a part of bad guy that stops (neutralizes) the bad guy from breaking into a home (infecting cells)...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283899058753536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283897007739000,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402722000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"That was seen once with an RSV vaccine in the 1960s. And having antibodies after one's first infection by Dengue virus can make second infection with a related strain worse.  That's thought to be b/c sometimes antibodies can help virus infect cells it otherwise couldn’t infect.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283897007738880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283895892099000,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402721000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"This was always the most likely outcome of such a study – we know how to make vaccines. But there was also a risk that maybe some vaccines, particularly crude ones like this Alum-adjuvanted inactivated virus vaccine, would cause disease enhancement (i.e. make an infection worse).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283895892099073","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283894696681500,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402721000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Unvaccinated animals became infected and showed clear signs of disease.  The vaccine worked. And if we had a vaccine that worked anything like this and everyone took it, we would likely achieve herd immunity & save millions of lives without the need for further social distancing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283894696681472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283893685915600,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402721000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"...might not become a carrier (i.e. might not spread infection). The middle and low doses of vaccine allowed the monkeys to become infected (so they could likely still spread it) but …their lungs were protected from infection and they showed no or few signs of disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283893685915649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283892649918500,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402720000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"The high dose of the vaccine protected animals so well that researchers saw little signs of virus even replicating after animals were exposed. That's good. If virus indeed was blocked from even infecting, then it means that a vaccinated person, if exposed...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283892649918467","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283891626451000,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402720000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"When monkeys (specifically, a species called rhesus macaques) were vaccinated with various doses of the inactivated SARS2 vaccine, the monkeys developed antibodies. When the monkeys were then exposed to SARS2, the animals were protected from disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283891626450948","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283890741457000,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402720000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"That Alum was used and vaccine was effective is reassuring b/c cutting edge vaccines have moved on to other, in some ways better, adjuvants. Indeed, other adjuvants should be better. But so far it's good to see that Alum could be good enough. So here's what the researchers saw.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283890741456903","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283889667780600,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402720000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Note: Flu vaccines are made same way: grow strains of flu (in chicken eggs) & inactivate resulting virus. Importantly, this group mixed their inactivated SARS2 w/ an immune stimulant (adjuvant) called Alum, which puts a spotlight on the vaccine, drawing immune system’s attention.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283889667780609","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283888669466600,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402720000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:12:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…lets immune system study what the bad guy looks like so it can prepare to spot the invading army of Terminators (aka immunity). I’ve discussed how immunity works in other threads – look at my pinned tweet. (Please do look there first b/f asking questions- faster for you.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283888669466630","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252283887658643500,"conversation_id":"1252283886417174528","created_at":1587402719000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"17:11:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"This vaccine is made by growing SARS2 in cells in a laboratory and inactivating them using a chemical that basically freezes the virus. If the virus were the Terminator, it’s like you’ve soldered the robot’s joints in place… it’s renders the bad guy harmless but still…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1252283887658643462","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251850590260465700,"conversation_id":"1251850557385572353","created_at":1587299413000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"12:30:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Stay tuned for more covid and science explainers. They will be in plain English and use colorful analogies.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850590260465666","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251850587697819600,"conversation_id":"1251850557385572353","created_at":1587299413000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"12:30:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Will I be immune after I recover? I answer this in other threads, but worth reassuring here that almost certainly yes, for many months & likely over a year. We won’t know for a while how long our immune systems remember SARS2, & that won’t matter much once we have vaccine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850587697819650","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251850586498228200,"conversation_id":"1251850557385572353","created_at":1587299412000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"12:30:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Quick FAQ. Is SARS2 manmade? Almost certainly not- nature is constantly cooking up these beasts on her own. What about similarities in code to HIV? Just chance. Lots of books contain “and then she” w/o anyone plagiarizing. Can SARS2 lie dormant in me? No- not that kind of virus.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850586498228225","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251690572903039000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587261262000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"01:54:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Not true. It’s possible to analyze a study & derive proper conclusions. But I can certainly appreciate how, for those who don’t understand how to analyze, it feels like a matter of faith. That’s why I & others are trying to explain how to analyze. This can be learned by many.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251690572903038979","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251684504747507700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587259815000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"01:30:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Need to characterize a test well enough that we know its specificity w/ more precision. Let’s say narrow it to 99.1-99.2%. Then select 3000 people at random & test. That would yield a useful answer. If see 50 positives, would know half are, so have a 0.8% infection rate.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251684504747507712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587803185664000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236760000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:06:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Until we know, it’s a reflection of each our priorities whether we choose to wishfully believe SARS2 is less lethal or approach these early data with caution and act as if it’s dangerous (which means social distancing, masks, wash hands, work on treatments and vaccines).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587803185664002","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587802011177000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236760000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:06:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So it’s going to take other studies with more accurate tests (not clear yet if we have any more accurate) done on random samplings of people and maybe at a time when the virus has spread more widely before we really know its lethality.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587802011176960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587800698425300,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236759000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"And even the true-positives could have been enriched in the group they tested because they didn’t test the population at random but rather asked volunteers to step forward.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587800698425345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587799641448400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236759000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"And if there really were only 100 deaths in Santa Clara out of an estimated 16% of everyone infected, then we could say that the lethality was tiny. But sadly they didn’t find a lot of positives. They found so few that most of them could have been caused by false-positives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587799641448448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587798467055600,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236759000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So that would mean that we could be sure that there were at least 540-597 positives among the 3330 (and that’s not adjusting for false-negatives, which is another story but not that significant). So we would then know that 16-18% of everyone was infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587798467055619","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587797284270000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236758000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"For example, if number of positive cases Stanford found among 3330 test subjects was 600, then difference between a 0.1% and 2% false-positive rate wouldn’t have mattered. 0.1% would mean 3 of the 3330 get a false-positive result, and a 2% rate would mean 66 do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587797284270083","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587795996610600,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236758000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"To find out how lethal the virus really is, we’ll need larger studies with more accurate tests. We not have more accurate tests, which means that we may have to wait until the virus has spread more before knowing its lethality with more confidence.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587795996610560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587794817949700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236758000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"I’ve shown you that the flaws in such a study could make a bullet to the head seem less dangerous than it is. Such a study can certainly make a lethal virus, one that may only kill 1% of those it infects, seem 10 times less dangerous. But that doesn’t make the study right.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587794817949698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587793605791700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236758000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So while the Stanford study will provide some joy to anyone who reaches for every bit of evidence that SARS2 is not that scary a virus, we need to be careful that we aren’t just seeing what we want to see in a very uncertain data set.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587793605791745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587792355963000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236757000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"My math is crude & needs adjusting for delays in death, but it doesn’t change fact that we’re talking about a lot of death yet to come unless we keep flattening the curve.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587792355962889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587791294812200,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236757000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"And if only 1% of Santa Clara were infected, which is entirely possible given the uncertainties in the Standard study, and we assume that this is representative of the country, then we need 70x more Americans infected, which means 70x 38,000 deaths, which is over 2.5M deaths.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587791294812160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587790091018200,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236757000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…and the next 2.8%, and so on. 38,000 Americans have died to far from COVID19. Let’s say there is herd immunity when we have 25x 2.8% of Americans infected (which would be 70% of the country). That would translate to nearly 1M Americans dead.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587790091018241","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587788828561400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236756000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But there’s another common sense way to consider the Stanford data on their face. Consider all the pain and death we’ve already seen. If that’s what we get when only 2.8% of the population has been infected, then we’ll get far more when the next 2.8% is infected…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587788828561411","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587787561762800,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236756000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So as much as the Stanford study may seem reassuring, the uncertainties in this study leaves us still uncertain about how lethal SARS2 is & far from certain that it’s mild enough that we can just ease up on social distancing, which is what everyone of us is yearning for.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587787561762821","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587786366427100,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236756000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So that would mean that 9,500 in Santa Clara were infected, of which 100 die, which is a lethality of  ~1%. 1% lethality is in the ballpark of other calculations of lethality from other regions.  If 90% of Americans were to be infected & 1% were to die, that would be 3M deaths.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587786366427136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587785183592400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236756000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…the test had even a 1% false-positive rate, then 1% of the county was infected, which is 19,000 people & a 0.5% lethality rate (100/19,000). And if we assume that people who had symptoms were just twice as likely to go for testing, then only 0.5% of the county was infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587785183592452","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587783929536500,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236755000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"And so this virus doesn’t kill 9% of the people it infects. The Stanford test suggests that 2.8% of Santa Clara County was likely infected, which would be 53,000 people. So if 100 of them die, then that’s a 0.19% lethality rate, which seems reassuring. But if we assume…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587783929536517","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587782700601300,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236755000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…definitely many mild & asymptomatic cases out there. That’s exactly what this Stanford study was trying to measure. Data from the Diamond Princess suggested that maybe half of all infected people are asymptomatic, though even that might be an underestimate.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587782700601345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587781496918000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236755000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"What’s this mean?  Santa Clara had 1094 reported cases and 50 deaths, though the authors reasonably estimated that maybe another 50 of these cases may yet die. So that’s an estimated 9% lethality (100/1094). Yet it’s certainly an overestimate b/c there are…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587781496918019","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587780251127800,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236754000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But if there were an enrichment of people who had symptoms in the 3,330 who volunteered for testing, then the extrapolated 2.8% positive rate is an over-estimate. The authors of the Stanford study say as much, but that’s buried in the fine print.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587780251127814","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251587779093565400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236754000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"19:05:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"In any case, after making the adjustments for age, gender, and race that they could make to extrapolate from their small set of tested people to the whole county, they estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara county (1.9M people) was infected, which is around 53,000 infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251587779093565442","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585969335214000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236323000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"That’s not an adjustment that the researchers made or could have made, because they can’t know what motivated people to volunteer for this study. So the results are even more uncertains than just b/c of the false-positive range.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585969335214081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585967837896700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236322000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…and were most eager to see if they really were positive? In the case of the bullet analogy, what if those people who did have scars on their heads were more likely to step forward to be inspected. Then fact that 2% of tested people had scars would not mean that 2% of town did.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585967837896704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585966529286100,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236322000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So researchers made some adjustments by extrapolating the data they had for tested 20-30 years olds to all 20-30 year olds, from tested Hispanics to all Hispanics, and from tested men to all men. But what if the people who step forward for testing are ones who had some symptoms…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585966529286147","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585962884333600,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236321000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…1.5% false-positive rate & none of those people were positive. Or maybe it has a 1% false-positive rate (33 out of 50 weren’t really infected) & therefore 17 people really were infected (which is 0.5% rate of infection). So w/ small tweaks to assumptions, we can get any number.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585962884333574","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585961521225700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236321000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Specifically, the Stanford study tested 3,330 people in Santa Clara. If test really has a 2% false-positive rate, then it would have called as many as 66 people positive for SARS2 antibodies even if they weren’t. But the test called 50 people positive. So maybe the test has a…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585961521225728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585960200061000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236320000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So this test could have around a nearly 2% false-positive rate. And with a 2% false-positive rate, as you may recall from the story, you can turn something that is nearly 100% fatal (a bullet to the head) into something that looks like it’s only 0.25% likely to kill you.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585960200060931","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585958891454500,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236320000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Stanford reported a specificity of 99.5% (95 CI 98.1-99.9%), which means 99.5% of neg samples were called negative, but we aren’t totally Confident in that # (the C in “CI” means “Confident” and I means Interval). We are 95% confident that correct answer is between 98.1-99.9%.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585958891454467","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585957628989400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236320000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Imagine a drug test that says 1.9% of people are taking drugs but aren’t. Their careers can be ruined. Imagine a radar gun that says that 1.9% of people who are going 65 are actually going 70. That’s one reason police tend to focus on people going much faster than that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585957628989440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585956395847700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236320000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"You need to know that \"specificity\" is how many negatives a test correctly calls negative. It’s the true-negative rate. 1-specificity is therefore the false-positive rate. A test w/ a 98.1% specificity has a 1.9% false-positive rate. False-positives can be a real problem.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585956395847682","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585955049414700,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236319000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…the true false-positive rate. It’s an estimate. Maybe if they had tested another set of samples, the test would have called 4 of them false-positive or only 1. So the authors reported that “our estimates of specificity are 99.5% (95 CI 98.1-99.9%)”. That’s hard to decipher.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585955049414662","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585953719820300,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236319000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But back to the Stanford study. 2 false-positives out of 371 is only 0.5%. That means that the test correctly calls 99.5% of people who were never infected with SARS2 as being negative. The trouble is, and the authors of the study acknowledge this, that 0.5% isn’t…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585953719820288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585952411193300,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236319000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Is it possible that some people survived an encounter w/ a bullet? Yes, it happens. Depends on caliber, where it hits, angle, etc. So the lethality of a bullet is not 100%.  But it’s also definitely not 0.25%. Key to knowing is a good test to find out who's really been been shot.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585952411193347","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585951069077500,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236318000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But for now, just consider that SARS2 is related to coronaviruses that cause common colds, so it’s not hard to imagine that an antibody test that looks for antibodies to SARS2 will sometimes say a sample is positive when it’s really detecting antibodies to those other viruses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":55,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585951069077511","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585948200165400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236318000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…said that 2 out of 371 people had them even though we know they couldn’t have since those 371 blood samples were taken before SARS2 arrived on our shores. (Some will call this evidence that SARS2 was here earlier, but that’s not the case. It’s like saying “all those scars are…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585948200165379","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585946891489300,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236317000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Lots of people have round scars from acne or chicken pox. Those result in false positive. In the case of covid testing, the Stanford researchers reported that “Among 371 pre-COVID samples, 369 were negative.” That means that a test that was looking for antibodies to SARS2…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585946891489284","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585945561956400,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236317000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"There are actually two major flaws in his logic. One is that his test has false positives and the second is that his sample wasn’t truly random. Let’s talk about the first flaw: clearly, we can’t assume every scar on the head is evidence of an encounter with a bullet.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585945561956352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585944240693200,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236317000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"And so the town relaxed. The next day, the killer among them shot 3 more people dead. Is this a silly story? Yes. But it has the basic elements to allow anyone to see how we have to be careful about interpreting such “surveillance” data. What did the Mayor get wrong?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585944240693252","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585942843949000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236316000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"“So there must be 400 people in this town who have bullet scars, and therefore we have 401 people who were shot in the head but, as you can see, only one was killed. That means only 0.25% of those who get shot in the head die. Bullets are clearly not very lethal. Relax everyone.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585942843949057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585941552148500,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236316000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…so he asked for volunteers. And 500 people came forward to have their heads inspected. The Mayor found that 10 of them, 2%, had round scars on their heads. So he declared, “Since 2% of these 500 folks have scars on their heads, then we can assume 2% of the town has scars.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585941552148482","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585940117651500,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236316000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…we can see what the lethality of a bullet really is. As a diagnostic for whether someone has ever been shot in the head, we’ll look for signs that a bullet hit their skin. It should leave a scar.” Now this is a large town of 20,000 people and the Mayor didn’t have all day…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585940117651456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585938762973200,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236315000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…like this news and ask, “you mean we don’t have to hide in our homes from this killer?” The Mayor says, “Let’s run a study. Let’s first see how many people have been shot in the head at some point in their lives, maybe when they didn’t notice, and then…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":43,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585938762973189","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251585937450074000,"conversation_id":"1251585935994740736","created_at":1587236315000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"18:58:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…is lying in the street of a small town. There’s a bullet hole in the person’s head. Someone declares “Oh no, any one of us could be next!”. But the Mayor steps forward & replies reassuringly, “Hold on, we don’t know that getting shot in the head is dangerous.” The townsfolk…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585937450074112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250219048945713200,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586910423000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"00:27:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"If anyone is still convinced anti-malarials work well, please link to the studies we can discuss here. Uncontrolled studies are un-interpretable. Small controlled studies can be noisy but can be analyzed together as a “meta-analysis” to see what preponderance of data show.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250219048945713152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250200011297652700,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905884000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:11:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"The total effort we’re exerting is inspiring yet it’s distressing when even one hope is dashed (standard for biotech). Importantly, have a lot of shots on goal remaining, many of which have a much more compelling rational for why they should work than the anti-malarials ever did.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250200011297652738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250198552409714700,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905537000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:05:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Testing new drugs for their interactions with other drugs is a standard part of all new drug development. Public is now learning how new drugs are developed typically over a decade, but all compressed into months.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250198552409714694","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250198551164059600,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905536000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:05:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So we can’t just throw in any drugs we hope have some bit of efficacy together. We risk real harm. We have to pick and choose which drugs to try together - which to include on a team. And I think the anti-malarials have failed tryouts. Time to focus elsewhere.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250198551164059653","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250198548534173700,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905536000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:05:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But the risk of that is that we already know these drugs have side effects (can really screw up heart function) and kill people. So testing a new drug that might be safe and effective on top of anti-malarials risks muddying our understanding of the new drug.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250198548534173698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250198547473055700,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905535000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:05:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Given all the other trials out there, we need patients sorted to trials that hold more promise than any involving chloroquine or hydroxychloroqine. Someone might say, “well why not just throw it on top of new drugs just in case?”.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250198547473055747","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250198546432897000,"conversation_id":"1250198542720872450","created_at":1586905535000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"23:05:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"We can quibble with these trials’ designs & say maybe these drugs still work a bit, but at very least we need to accept that they don’t work well. If they did, we would have seen a big effect by now. It’s essential to lay aside hopes for this class of drug & focus on other drugs.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":89,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1250198546432897030","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249479765511323600,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586734164000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:29:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So take this for what it is, a very basic explainer that likely does more good for those struggling to understand the more technical things they read elsewhere than it does harm by making anyone think antibodies are little dogs (they aren't). But lighting fleas would be cool.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":47,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":269,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249479765511323651","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249479764395655200,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586734164000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:29:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Am I dumbing down science, anthropomorphizing viruses & immune cells? Yes. Viruses don't think & aren't evil. Antibodies don't bite (though there are engineered antibodies called BiTEs we use to treat cancer). Yet analogies help people get interested & hopefully read more.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249479764395655169","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249479763472912400,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586734164000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:29:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"A few endnotes: why twitter? Because it spreads quickly & I get feedback that tells me what people find confusing so I can improve whatever essay I publish on some blog. Why do I use silly analogies like dogs for antibodies? Not everyone needs analogies, but many do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249479763472912386","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477548356100000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733636000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:20:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Tests that can quantify antibodies are being used in studies to determine how much antibody is high enough to be protective against re-infection. We’ll then use those results to tune antibody tests that say not just if you have antibodies, but if you have enough to be protected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477548356100096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477547244630000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733636000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:20:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…previously been infected. And we’ll have a sense of how high antibody levels need to be to protect against infection. Currently, the serology tests that are coming to the market don’t tell you how much antibody you have, just if they are above a certain threshold.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477547244630024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477546061828000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733635000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:20:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Practice social distancing whenever possible & wear a mask or nose/mouth cover when around vulnerable people in case you might be asymptomatically carrying the virus. Once we have vaccines, they will help boost antibody levels higher, even in people who have…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477546061828105","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477543905935400,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733635000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:20:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…from spreading to the lungs, keeping the infection mild, even asymptomatic. So if you live or work with older people, it still makes sense, after you have recovered & get a positive serology/antibody test that more or less proves it, for you to act as before.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477543905935360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477246160699400,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733564000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But even those who are immune enough not to experience the symptoms of a re-infection might still have low enough immunity that the virus could infect & replicate in their noses and throats, spreading to others, but high enough immunity to keep the virus…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477246160699392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477245049208800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733564000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…done studies to quantify how many antibodies people have & how those levels correlate w/ protection against re-infection, we can’t be sure that everyone who is simply positive for some antibodies is really immune. Immunity requires having enough antibody-dogs!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477245049208837","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477243920961500,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733563000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…will necessarily become immune. It’s possible that some people will recover from a very mild infection with just enough antibodies to make a test turn positive but not enough to prevent a re-infection. It’s probably not going to be common. But until we have…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477243920961538","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477242729705500,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733563000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But there’s also something I must caution you about. While recovering from COVID19 will “most likely” allow your immune system to generate antibodies & make you immune to reinfection, at least for a while (eg many months or a year), not everyone…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477242729705483","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477240129228800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733562000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…a case of a reinfection. But if person doesn’t remember being infected or just recalls mild symptoms & never actually got a molecular PCR test (or got one and it was negative), then maybe they never had the infection in the first place. So “re-infection” could…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477240129228800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477238908731400,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733562000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…have antibodies against SARS2. We’ll need more information to know if it’s true. For example, be sure to ask “was the initial infection confirmed by a PCR molecular test that actually detected presence of the SARS2 virus?” If yes, then ok, maybe we really do have…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477238908731393","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477237767798800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733562000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…50% right if it told you that you had antibodies to SARS2. I’m not suggesting that we don’t use such tests. What I’m trying to do is vaccinate the public against just believing reports of reinfections of people who supposedly already recovered from COVID and supposedly…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":87,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477237767798784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477236614484000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733562000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"We expect new data every day. You might notice that the lower the prevalence of infection is in a region, the more critical it is that we use tests with high specificity. If prevalence is only 3%, then a test with a 97% specificity (3% false-positive rate), would be only…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477236614483968","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477235502956500,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733561000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…a 1.5% reinfection rate instead of 0%. Big difference from 13%. That’s why it’s critical that we determine how widespread SARS2 infection actually is by testing randomly, not just testing people showing up to hospitals with symptoms. These key studies are underway.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":114,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477235502956544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477234341154800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733561000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"So the test would have a 4750/4900 (97%) positive predictive value, which is good. If half of those 150 false-positives suffered their first SARS2 infection but thought it was a reinfection (& none of the true-positives got reinfected), then we would think there was…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477234341154817","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477233141571600,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733561000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"If the prevalence is really high, let’s say 50%, then testing 10,000 people (of whom 5000 are actually infect, i.e. are true-positives) w/ a 95% sensitive, 97% specific test would identify 4750 true-positives but call 150 (3% of the 5000 who weren’t infected) as false-positives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477233141571594","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477231958777900,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733560000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…a hard time knowing who was who. That’s how a Dx test w/ a reported 97% specificity (an A+ by some standards, though my mom would say B+) turns into a tool of confusion. Also notice how much depends on the prevalence of infections in your region.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477231958777865","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477230822121500,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733560000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…who the world thought were immune, 138 (13%) would appear to have gotten reinfected, maybe even weeks or a few months after supposedly recovering. And yet, what if very few of the 800 real positives (true-positives) got reinfected? We would have…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477230822121475","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477229421170700,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733560000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…on those beers & handshakes they have been missing (kisses in Europe). Let’s say that SARS2 then infects half of the 276 people who were given a false-positive result & therefore actually have no immunity to SARS2. That would mean that out of 1036 people…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477229421170688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477228255215600,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733560000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…SARS2 antibodies, it’s only 73% likely to be right. That’s know as its “positive predictive value”. So let’s say then that all 1036 people given the “congrats, you’ve recovered from COVID19” signal go out into the world & start mingling, going to work & catching up…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477228255215624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477227105976300,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733559000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…& thought you must have already been infected but just didn’t notice it (after all, many people are asymptomatic) then you would actually have a 27% (276/1036) chance of never having actually been infected. Put another way, if the test says you are positive for…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477227105976321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477225847586800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733559000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"… that’s 95% sensitive & 97% specific would correctly identify 95% of the 800 infected as being positive (760) but also tell 3% of the 9,200 uninfected that they are positive (276). So 276 (27%) out of the total 1036 positive would be misled. So if you got a positive result…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477225847586816","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477224698466300,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733559000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"If you live in a region where an estimated 8% of people have been infected (that’s known as the prevalence number) & people want to know if they’re one of them, then testing 10,000 people (of which 800 have truly been infected & 9,200 have not) w/ a Dx test…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477224698466306","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477223402197000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733558000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…as if they are positive, than to have false-positives we falsely think are immune. So whenever you hear about a diagnostic test, look at its specificity. If you see, let’s say, 97% specificity, here’s what that means.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477223402196992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477222286663700,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733558000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…sensitivity & specificity, which can also be said to be a trade-off between false-negatives & false-postiives. Better to have a SARS2 person be a false-negatives (be told they weren’t infected) who has to remain cautious and who, if they have symptoms, we’ll still treat…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477222286663680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477221112258600,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733558000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"…but also less likely to light up as positive from the low level of confused, cross-reacting antibodies that SARS2-negative people have simply from their past colds. That’s a general rule of diagnostic tests: there’s a trade-off between…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477221112258560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477219946242000,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733558000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"Indeed, depending on how many of the lightening flees you add to the test, you set the threshold so that it is more likely to miss low levels of SARS2 antibodies (so it’s more likely to give a false-negative result, saying you weren’t previously infected even if you were)…","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477219946242052","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249477218767642600,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733557000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:19:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"That could undermine our understanding of just how protective our immune response to a real infection actually is. So it’s critical that the diagnostic tests that are administered to the masses have a very high specificity, even if that means tuning them to be less sensitive.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":97,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249477218767642625","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249476045826293800,"conversation_id":"1249475238636765184","created_at":1586733278000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"23:14:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1130959251671834600,"username":"peterkolchinsky","name":"Peter Kolchinsky","place":"","tweet":"But here’s what else could happen. When a person who falsely thinks they have recovered from COVID19 b/c of a false-positive serology result actually does become infected for the first time, & maybe even dies, media will report that as a “re-infection”, inciting fear.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":151,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249476045826293762","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1130959251671834624","username":"PeterKolchinsky"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
