{"id":1255612208056340500,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588196253000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:37:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"...that then became our prior.  So updating that now based on (hopefully released soon) NIAID data, it does sound like we have a drug that perhaps helps get people off ventilators if given early enough in COVID-19 sepsis.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255612208056340482","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255611886382481400,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588196176000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:36:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Not sure if they still do.  But our prior would have been that early treatment would have been more effective than later treatment.  Our posterior prob after the Chinese trial was that RDV early might lead to quicker recovery in critical illness in COVID-19...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255611886382481410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255611529032056800,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588196091000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:34:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But to go all Bayesian: the Chinese data made sense.  Treating early rather than later more effective for a sepsis-like syndrome in COVID-19?  Yes please...early treatment does seem more effective in bacterial sepsis (the intensivists were fond of calling that \"the golden hour\")","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255611529032056832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255610997097848800,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195964000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:32:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So relative risk of stopping drug early was 2.25 (125% increased) with RDV, but wide confidence intervals (-21% to  +542%).  I will not be surprised if RDV turns out to have significant toxicities: again, antivirals.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255610997097848844","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255610613516157000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195873000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:31:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But again, if we're going to be P-value obsessives, lets run the numbers.  In the Chinese trial we are told that the risk of adverse drug effect was ~ 65% in both RDV and placebo groups.\n\nRDV was stopped early in 18/158, placebo stopped early in 4/79.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255610613516156929","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255609793085165600,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195677000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:27:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But...welcome to clinical medicine...it's pretty good.  NNT is a measure of the efficiency of an intervention.\n\nThe RDV sounds pretty toxic (it's an antiviral drug: this is unsurprising.  Let me introduce you to my chums ganciclovir, ribavirin and foscarnet).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255609793085165569","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255609444324520000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195594000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:26:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"with 95% CI 0.47 to 0.98, P = 0.03.  The press release tells us that the real P-value was 0.06, so the numbers I've guestimated aren't right, but they're not too bad.  The number needed to treat to prevent a death is also 1/(11.6%-8%) = 28 patients.  That sounds like a lot...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255609444324519938","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255609034910154800,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195496000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:24:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"If they did, you'd have ~ 532 patients in each group.\n\n8% died in the RDV group: 42 patients.\n11.6% died in the control group: 62 patients.\n\nIf that were right, relative risk of death in RDV would be  0.68","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255609034910154755","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255608063488295000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195265000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:21:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"That explains why the US trial shows a small P value for the same effect.  Let's assume randomization worked in the US trial and we had equal sized treatment and control groups (I don't know if they used 1:1 randomization, it doesn't say).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255608063488294917","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255607377400914000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588195101000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:18:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So now we're seeing two trials in different parts of the world that are coming up with a rather similar result.\n\nThe NIH media release says there were 1063 patients in the US trial, vs. 237 in the Chinese trial.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255607377400913925","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255606033059364900,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194780000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:13:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But the Lancet trial becomes more hopeful in the context of the NIAID press release today on the US RDV trial being stopped early because they had a significantly reduced time to improvement in RDV-treated patients...so they're likely using the same primary outcome and same...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255606033059364870","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255605303099510800,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194606000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:10:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"They did a secondary analysis which may be exciting: in those who had been sick for less-long, improvement was more impressive: time to improve was 53% faster with RDV, but could have been 5% slower or 143% faster.\n\nWhy do we regard secondary data analyses askance?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255605303099510786","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255604734343463000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194471000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:07:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"in which case you'd be hoping for a hazard ratio < 1.\n\nWhat did they find?  In all comers, those who got RDV got better (however defined) 23% faster, but there was a lot of uncertainty.  The confidence intervals went as high as 75% faster, but also as low as 13% slower.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255604734343462913","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255604377596891100,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194386000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:06:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"If they analyzed these data as I think they did, deaths would be \"censored\" (no more contribution to the person time denominator), and people who were still on ventilators at the end of the trial are also censored.  You could flip this around and do the analysis as time to death","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255604377596891138","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255603387749544000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194150000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:02:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"ITT analyses are important because they tell us about the true \"effectiveness\" of a drug under real world conditions (where you may, for instance, die before you get the intervention).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255603387749543938","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255603191397392400,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194103000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:01:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"They did an \"intention to treat\" analysis.  What's that?  That means they analyzed people according to the drug to which they were assigned.  Randomized to remdesivir but died before you got your first dose?  You're still analyzed as a remdesivir recipient.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255603191397392385","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255602803004801000,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588194010000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:00:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The trial ended before they had a definitive outcome.\n\nThey are reporting out hazard ratios, which makes me think analysis was done with Cox proportional hazards models (pretty standard).  A large \"hazard\" in this context means you got better faster.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255602803004801030","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255602333284794400,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588193898000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"20:58:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"You can't simply look at proportions who died/survived, because you have a \"right censoring\" problem that reflects the fact that many people are stuck on a ventilator for a long time.  So you don't know the end of their story.  Statisticians call these folks \"censored\"...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255602333284794371","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255602076094259200,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588193837000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"20:57:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So let's take as a jumping off point the fact that it's underpowered, and P values won't be small.\n\nThey are using survival analytic techniques to analyze the data...that's appropriate.  These are time-to-event data, however \"success\" is defined.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255602076094259202","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255601674766475300,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588193741000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"20:55:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I really didn't know what to make of the \"stopped trial early because of poor enrolment\" thing.  Now it makes sense.  The trial died because the disease was controlled in China: yay!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":43,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255601674766475264","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255141040568193000,"conversation_id":"1255140586018889732","created_at":1588083918000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"14:25:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This is not to underplay the importance of LTC and prisons.  But those processes are far along.  This is a new thing, and the potential to seed other communities with little access to advanced care resources is potentially disastrous.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255141040568193040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254833097717227500,"conversation_id":"1254833097717227522","created_at":1588010498000,"date":"2020-04-27","time":"18:01:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This is a really good presser.  Appropriate acknowledgement of uncertainty, appropriate focus on public health resources underpinning reopening economy.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254833097717227522","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254501234934976500,"conversation_id":"1254500960187154433","created_at":1587931376000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"20:02:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Don't forget \"mob-fronting money launderer\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254501234934976514","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254408561494499300,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587909281000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:54:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"(Sorry Trinity Bellwoods hipsters...no carrying the couch over to the park for beer, weed, and snuggling).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":102,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254408561494499329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254408477239382000,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587909261000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:54:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But it does suggest that we can (and I think should) give people access to parks and green spaces, which we can use safely much as we use grocery stores and pharmacies safely.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":194,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254408477239382016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254408175731781600,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587909189000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:53:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I have spent much of my career studying seasonality.  I do think physical environment is an important determinant of infectivity (UV, temp, humidity).  That's counterbalanced in a pandemic by high prevalence of susceptibility, which buoys Rt.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254408175731781632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254407857124126700,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587909113000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:51:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Many of us can work, study and teach from home.  It sucks, but we should continue.  Not my area but my understanding is that 40% of Ontario's work force has the potential to work remotely.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":91,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254407857124126720","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254407659878584300,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587909066000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:51:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"but it's survival mode.\n\nI think businesses and services that don't require large gatherings of humans can be re-opened safely (opinion, don't @ me) in much the same way we have maintained opening of essential businesses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254407659878584320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254407366818377700,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587908996000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:49:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The jeopardy created by large gatherings is a signature of this epidemic.  Many of those sectors (sports, entertainment, fitness) are transitioning remarkably to generating revenue via streaming and personal training.  I realize it's not back to normal...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254407366818377730","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254407061775024000,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587908923000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:48:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The best analogy is dimmer vs. light switch.  We can't just flick distancing on and off.  But economically and psychologically we have to figure out what we can restart and what we can't.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254407061775024128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254406869482975200,"conversation_id":"1254406535129825281","created_at":1587908878000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"13:47:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"We project that abruptly returning to \"normal\" at that time will have us right back to raging epidemic by early June.\n\nBy contrast, partial reduction in distancing (say going from 70% reduction to 30-50% reduction) would slow resurgence, and push it further ahead.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254406869482975234","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254387047319646200,"conversation_id":"1254387047319646209","created_at":1587904152000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"12:29:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"For those who wish to play at home...an easy approximation of Rt--> just sum up incident cases over the last serial interval (say 6 days), and divide it by the total incident cases over the 6 day period prior to that.  That's a crude estimate of Rt.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":143,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254387047319646209","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254386584365011000,"conversation_id":"1254386405498859521","created_at":1587904041000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"12:27:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"You can see that global counts are starting to \"cross curves\" (these contour plots represent different average reproduction numbers since Jan 24.  Crossing horzontally = good, vertically = bad, note log scale).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254386584365010946","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254383126819811300,"conversation_id":"1254383126819811329","created_at":1587903217000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"12:13:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"There's an East-West inversion in the country, with R from BC to Manitoba now > 1, Manitoba > 1 for the first time since control, Saskatchewan now well above 1, Alberta above 1 but on its way down.\n\nR for Canada overall is hovering just above 1 and the model looks stable.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254383126819811329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254382767196065800,"conversation_id":"1254382647398318080","created_at":1587903131000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"12:12:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"In central Canada, both Quebec and Ontario now have R at 1 after a brief resurgence.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254382767196065792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254382647398318000,"conversation_id":"1254382647398318080","created_at":1587903103000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"12:11:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This morning's Canada forecasts show a lot of good news and some setbacks.  The East looks good: NB and NFLD are consolidating, with R firmly below 1.  NS is < 1 for the first time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":160,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254382647398318080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254072797929881600,"conversation_id":"1254070647057154048","created_at":1587829229000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"15:40:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Disassortativity (mostly encountered in the real world in uncomfortable instances of old dudes dating very young women) isn't something we'd expect with masks but if you had disassortative mixing you'd get masks involved in more encounters and so their effect would be amplified.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254072797929881600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254072104213008400,"conversation_id":"1254070647057154048","created_at":1587829063000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"15:37:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Assortativity erodes their impact as one would expect...if mask wearers are mostly encountering other mask wearers, the impact of masks is lessened because transmission continues apace in unmasked encounters.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254072104213008384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254071885857521700,"conversation_id":"1254070647057154048","created_at":1587829011000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"15:36:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The TLDR: masks could theoretically knock R0 below 1, but use needs to be widespread.  If they work in both directions (T and I) they can be less effective and still impactful than if you're relying on them ONLY to prevent infection OR transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254071885857521671","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254071550665523200,"conversation_id":"1254070647057154048","created_at":1587828931000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"15:35:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"(transmission probability for infectives; infection probability for susceptibles), as well as probability of mask use, R0 without masks, and degree of assortativity and dissortativity in the pop using the approach of Garnett and Anderson (turned upside down for disassortativity)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254071550665523202","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254032042590953500,"conversation_id":"1254032042590953472","created_at":1587819512000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"12:58:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Radical idea: instead of spending tens of millions of dollars to fund tech to develop contact tracing apps, why not fund public health departments sufficiently to allow them to do...contact tracing.\n\nCrazy, I know.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":83,"retweets_count":531,"likes_count":2278,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1254032042590953472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253728511229132800,"conversation_id":"1253728511229132802","created_at":1587747144000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"16:52:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I’ve been playing with a very simple model of masks and covid R0\nWill share a few brief insights later today, but something I see now is that non-universal masking can make an important difference by preventing transmission, much more than by protecting against infection","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":179,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1253728511229132802","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253046714946203600,"conversation_id":"1253046714946203648","created_at":1587584591000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:43:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Rather than \"weigh the evidence\", why not fund Project Target Kids to actually test the swabs on kids, which they have already collected, in order to do surveillance in this age group.  They are profoundly under-tested.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":97,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1253046714946203648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253044790071083000,"conversation_id":"1253044790071083010","created_at":1587584133000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"19:35:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Boy oh boy.  The CMOH is just shovelling fog.\n\nWhere is this evidence that asymptomatic infected individuals are less infectious than symptomatic individuals?  Does someone have access to a study I've missed?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":86,"likes_count":317,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1253044790071083010","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252620100441645000,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482879000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:27:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Last point: Michigan represents another \"control group\" for what happened in Ontario.  It is a slightly smaller population, with a similar economy, and Michigan has 5x the deaths and 3x the cases.  That is not an accident.  Premier Ford's action on March 14 saved many lives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":165,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252620100441645059","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252619405797843000,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482713000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:25:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The journalist was interested in the question of whether Michigan could be influencing outbreaks in those Canadian health units, and while I don't know for certain, my best bet would be that it is.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252619405797842949","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252619186637099000,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482661000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:24:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It does seem plausible that there is gravity exerted by the Michigan epidemic on border areas in Ontario (Windsor-Essex, Lambton).  I know Canadian HCW move back and forth; those are also border crossings so trucks and goods are moving.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252619186637099010","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252618918470078500,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482597000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:23:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The Michigan numbers are interesting.  Michigan has 1/4 the population of Canada (10 mil. vs. ~ 40 mil.) but similar numbers of cases (30k vs 36 k), and more deaths, which may suggest they are missing more than we are (2500 dead vs 1600 or so right now).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252618918470078466","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252618657408209000,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482535000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:22:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"and suggested that the tight air traffic connections between NYC and LA meant that they had a lot of gravity on each other, even though physical distance was large.\n\nAt any rate...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252618657408208908","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252617701022929000,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482307000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:18:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"something like G = k*(m1*m2)/d^2 (k being a constant)\n\nWe do that in infectious disease modeling to describe how an epidemic in one place influences an epidemic in another.  m1 and m2 may be population size; d = distance between them.  Or some proxy for connectedness, anyway.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252617701022928897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252617321623027700,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482216000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:16:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"In infectious disease modeling, we talk about \"gravity\" in the spatial movement of epidemics.  The gravity constant (yeah, the one from physics) describes gravity as proportional to the product of masses of two objects, divided by distance between them, squared.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252617321623027715","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252617067989213200,"conversation_id":"1252617067989213191","created_at":1587482156000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"15:15:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Corresponding with a journalist from SW Ontario just now, made me look up the numbers.  Some Ontario hot spots are those that share border with Michigan.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":66,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1252617067989213191","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251962399340494800,"conversation_id":"1251962159245996032","created_at":1587326070000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"19:54:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I'm stealing the dimmer switch thing.  That is perfect.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251962399340494848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251659834254143500,"conversation_id":"1251643040235753472","created_at":1587253933000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"23:52:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Dunning-Kruger virus","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251659834254143489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251540246224867300,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587225421000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"15:57:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"now, now.  You'll get me big-headed.  But thanks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251540246224867330","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251538070563885000,"conversation_id":"1251538029891784704","created_at":1587224903000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"15:48:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\" But we have seen the consequences of waiting to react until the health care system shows signs of distress and we cannot in good conscience allow that to unfold here.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":100,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251538070563885056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251513821375746000,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587219121000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:12:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"We don't need to reinvent the wheel.\n\nJust need to find wise people and listen to them.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251513821375746050","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251513312803786800,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587219000000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:10:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"May I suggest Canadians, Koreans and others keep using Trust virus and Mutual Care vaccine to defend this ugly C19 virus? Probably it would be another 12 to 18 months to find a cure for this C19 and exit.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251513312803786752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251513254519734300,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587218986000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:09:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"I add this C19 virus is good at having humans to distrust each other, creating ungrounded fear and anxiety, and having us lose the precious elderly, the source of the human wisdom. It attacks everyone yet discriminates those weak and old by hitting them hard.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251513254519734272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251513020213231600,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587218930000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:08:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"App is installed on smart phones of internationals to keep them informed of further developments; and etc. \n\n\"Korea CDC keeps containing sparks around country. Putting off sparks are at times more difficult than a national fire.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251513020213231616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251512907826954200,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587218903000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:08:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"Internationals visiting Korea are found to be another potential source of 2nd wave.  All international visitors at airport are currently tested; positives are quarantined for 14 days.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251512907826954244","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251512772212465700,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587218871000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:07:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"Visitors and nursing persons in these group dwellings are more likely to be infected and/or infecting others as well, given asymptomatic nature of C19.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251512772212465666","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1251512570688802800,"conversation_id":"1251512570688802816","created_at":1587218823000,"date":"2020-04-18","time":"14:07:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Wise words from a Korean friend, March 15:\n\n\"Essential to preventing 2nd waves is to do proactive actions in nursing homes and other group dwellings with elderly and disabled who are most susceptible to C19 if they have current medical conditions.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":96,"likes_count":271,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1251512570688802816","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250800209275302000,"conversation_id":"1250800112743387136","created_at":1587048983000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"14:56:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Really interesting.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1250800209275301893","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250439210768584700,"conversation_id":"1250438983693119489","created_at":1586962914000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"15:01:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"4 weeks in and the COVID-confirmed deaths (not COVID-attributable) look like the national totals for a bad flu YEAR in the US, which we infer indirectly via attributable mortality (35-40,000 deaths).  This thing is a horror.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1250439210768584713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250438983693119500,"conversation_id":"1250438983693119489","created_at":1586962860000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"15:01:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The numbers are just staggering: on March 15, 2020 the United States had 60 COVID-19 deaths.  31 days later the total is approaching 30,000 deaths.  The average number of deaths over that 31 day period is 962.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":154,"likes_count":268,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1250438983693119489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250222831096475600,"conversation_id":"1250222299875344385","created_at":1586911325000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"00:42:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"That's relative risk of resident death as a function of infections in residents (green) or staff (red), at lags of 0-7 days.  You can see that infected staff are predictive of resident deaths...infected residents aren't.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1250222831096475649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249808175047508000,"conversation_id":"1249808175047507976","created_at":1586812463000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"21:14:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Hi, everyone.  Sorry for deleting that scary picture, but can't share just yet.  But for those of you who know what an incidence rate ratio is: yes, the IRR for LTC residents in Ontario is currently 80, relative to covid-death-risk in community dwelling people aged > 69.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249808175047507976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249787862410842000,"conversation_id":"1249780603156860928","created_at":1586807620000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"19:53:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"We are totally blind, Ian.  And we have the capacity to not be blind anymore.  And it is an outrage that we wouldn't be applying that capacity to our long term care facilities with the urgency we would apply to fighting a forest fire.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249787862410842114","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249786911973130200,"conversation_id":"1249780603156860928","created_at":1586807394000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"19:49:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"seek and ye shall find.\nfind and ye shall seek.\n\nGuiding principle: having residents and patients die is a bad way to find out you have an outbreak.  (Lookin' at you, Joe Brant).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249786911973130244","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249781428163956700,"conversation_id":"1249780603156860928","created_at":1586806086000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"19:28:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I dunno about y'all, but I've always preferred saving lives to saving swabs.  I guess I'm just a little bit anti-swab.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249781428163956738","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249781120943755300,"conversation_id":"1249780603156860928","created_at":1586806013000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"19:26:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"And you're worried about wasting swabs.  I see.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249781120943755268","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249781023296172000,"conversation_id":"1249780603156860928","created_at":1586805990000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"19:26:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"*friends","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249781023296172032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249771441349890000,"conversation_id":"1249771441349890048","created_at":1586803705000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"18:48:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Locked the ol' twitter back down.\n\nIf you're a pedantic mansplainer, this provides an easy mechanism for me to throw you out of the boat.\n\nOtherwise, welcome and glad to have you along for the ride.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":413,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249771441349890048","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249754830354120700,"conversation_id":"1249754830354120704","created_at":1586799745000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"17:42:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Bravo, Premier Ford.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249754830354120704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249665625192046600,"conversation_id":"1249360504130330630","created_at":1586778477000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"11:47:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Yes, this is absolutely correct.\nWe’ve chased the virus out of the community and into congregate living settings.\n\nMore follows on this...stay tuned","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1249665625192046597","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248967891921309700,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586612124000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:35:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"here endeth ye tweetorial.\n\n(I know I'm delinquent on the SMR tweetorial...it's coming).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248967891921309698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248967788527587300,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586612100000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:35:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"of testing in these individuals to know that we aren't simply seeing false negative test results superseded by true positives as a result of a coin toss.  I don't know and haven't seen data that would allow one to decide what's at play.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248967788527587328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248967560210583600,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586612045000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:34:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This may be helpful for those brave IPAC folks who actually choose to test, knowing they may find individuals with disease (you know who you are/aren't!).\n\nBut it also speaks to the Korean reports of reinfection.  We do need to know more about the nature and timing...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248967560210583557","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248967256907841500,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611973000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:32:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So now instead of 1/4 tests being falsely negative, 1/16 are falsely negative.  A big improvement from that second test.\n\nNote that I'm assuming a perfectly specific test too, which is likely wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248967256907841537","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248966877067559000,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611882000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:31:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"75% x 25% = 18.75%.  That's the fraction of the total population that tested negative on the first test, but now \"converted\" to positive on the second.  We think they have disease.  Add 18.75% + 75% and our new test sensitivity (for 2 tests) is 93.75%.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248966877067558912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248965668839587800,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611594000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:26:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"and aren't driven by patient-specific features.  Which they could be.  But let's keep this simple.\n\nIn our first sample of infected people 75% tested positive first time around.  Let's re-test the 25% who tested negative again in 24 hours.  The same sensitivity applies.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248965668839587840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248965364920266800,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611522000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:25:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"But let's be optimistic and say sensitivity is 75%.\nThat means our \"rule out\" test is going to be wrong 1/4 times in people who DO have COVID-19.\n\nHow can we improve that?  It's pretty simple, you test again (assuming that the negatives and positives are \"independent\")","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248965364920266754","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248964501434761200,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611316000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:21:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Sensitivity of the test varies by day of infection...the sweet spot seems to be within a few days of developing symptoms (which usually onset 5-6 days after infection).  Sensitivity then drops off again.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248964501434761220","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248964275948998700,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611262000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:21:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Nasopharynx: the part of your body the milk passes through if someone makes you laugh while drinking","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248964275948998656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248964223318794200,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611250000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:20:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I don't know why.  I'm not a microbiologist or virologist.  Perhaps it's because we are sampling the \"nasopharynx\"*  while this is often a lung infection (and the higher sensitivity in lung specimens would support this).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248964223318794240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248963768249442300,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586611141000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:19:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"As someone who has always thought PCR fell down on the side of specificity (probability of a NEGATIVE test in someone who DOESN'T have the disease), the SENSITIVITY (probability of a POSITIVE test in someone who DOES have the disease) is less good than one might have hoped.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248963768249442304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248962921079734300,"conversation_id":"1248962921079734273","created_at":1586610939000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"13:15:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Just some back of the envelope math for y'all on TEST SENSITIVITY for PCR and covid \"rule out\".  This is important when deciding whether or not PPE are needed for working with a patient, or whether or not an exposed HCW can be cleared to work.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":58,"likes_count":149,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248962921079734273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248589203790856200,"conversation_id":"1248588517061656576","created_at":1586521838000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"12:30:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"angry cookie level: radioactive.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248589203790856197","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248588517061656600,"conversation_id":"1248588517061656576","created_at":1586521674000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"12:27:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I am still getting reports from folks at institutions packed with vulnerable people, with COVID outbreaks, getting pushback from public health units about testing asymptomatic patients, residents and staff.\n\nIt's unacceptable.  If your health unit is doing this: fair warning.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":90,"likes_count":254,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248588517061656576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248217088742883300,"conversation_id":"1248216964624867328","created_at":1586433119000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"11:51:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"And please retweet!!  Also works for the US and Mexico!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1248217088742883328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247888935142875100,"conversation_id":"1247888827139518466","created_at":1586354881000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"14:08:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I think we are approaching peak nationally, though Ontario's new test capacity may make things transiently look worse, and as usual, seeing this more clearly will mean that things are actually better.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247888935142875137","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247526938253463600,"conversation_id":"1247521370134548480","created_at":1586268574000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"14:09:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Wee correction to the reportage...Ontario lost Dr. H well before 2009 H1N1 pandemic.  But she was a crucial (and often forgotten) leader during SARS in Toronto.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247526938253463552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247506321303392300,"conversation_id":"1247505420488507396","created_at":1586263659000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"12:47:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"was the reason that pandemic was less impactful.\n\nWe don't have that luxury this time around, as demonstrated by the terrible toll this is taking in older individuals.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247506321303392256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247506101651869700,"conversation_id":"1247505420488507396","created_at":1586263606000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"12:46:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"0.1% IFR is a big deal.  It is 10x that of 2009 H1N1, and the attack rate here is higher because part of the pop had immunity to H1N1 (those born pre-1957).\n\nThe fact that those born pre-1957 were largely immune to H1N1 (older folks who DID get it were more likely to die)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247506101651869698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247505735791054800,"conversation_id":"1247505420488507396","created_at":1586263519000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"12:45:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"That means:\n1. They are missing 93% of infections despite an excellent PH system.\n2. They are much further into this epidemic than one would have expected.\n3. The infection fatality ratio for DM = 0.1%, as compared to 3.7% CFR.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247505735791054848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247481512171376600,"conversation_id":"1247412133194797057","created_at":1586257744000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"11:09:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"And of course you could use it as a passive vaccine, potentailly...conferring immunity as a superpower on healthcare workers, and shutting down within-hospital transmission (inasmuch as HCW are generally vectors for nosocomial outbreaks).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247481512171376640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247481239822532600,"conversation_id":"1247412133194797057","created_at":1586257679000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"11:07:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Can imagine convalescent serum used therapeutically: indeed, rather than use it in the ICU, could use it upstream for patients going down the path BoJo currently seems to be following, to keep them from getting to the ICU in the first place.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247481239822532610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247481018208182300,"conversation_id":"1247412133194797057","created_at":1586257626000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"11:07:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"In the pre-antibiotic era, horse-derived anti-pneumococcal antibody was used to treat pneumococcal bacteremia.  According to historical accounts reduced mortality from 90% to < 50%.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247481018208182272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247480775886413800,"conversation_id":"1247412133194797057","created_at":1586257568000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"11:06:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This is the most promising thing I've seen in a while.  There is a long history of using antibody both for passive vaccination (we use it currently for hep A, chicken pox, others) and for therapy.  \"Antitoxin\" therapy in vogue in the early 20th century was lifesaving.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1247480775886413824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
