{"id":1239640827284070400,"conversation_id":"1239551690661126146","created_at":1584388379000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"19:52:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"3/ We estimate the proportion of transmissions that occur before people get symptoms in two separate ways a/ transmission clusters, and b/comparing generation time and incubation period distributions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1239640827284070400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239639460851179500,"conversation_id":"1239551690661126146","created_at":1584388053000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"19:47:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"A few points from the paper. 1/ We recap estimates of doubling time, the incubation period. 2/ We estimate the generation time distributions, the distribution of times from being infected to transmitting. From this we also get R0.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1239639460851179525","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239638853373264000,"conversation_id":"1239551690661126146","created_at":1584387908000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"19:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"(There has been a version of this on Medarxiv since last week, but, please use this one on github which will be kept up to date.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1239638853373263882","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239638261938761700,"conversation_id":"1239551690661126146","created_at":1584387767000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"19:42:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Accompanying this policy discussion, we did some data analysis and math modelling to test the feasibility and potential effectiveness of this approach.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1239638261938761730","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239566996523692000,"conversation_id":"1239551690661126146","created_at":1584370776000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"14:59:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"We'll be updating the docs on the github. Some of this is on medarxiv, but I think they are swamped so we can update this version quicker.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1239566996523692032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238227466122080300,"conversation_id":"1238227466122080257","created_at":1584051407000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"22:16:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Sorry. Just released a tweet before it's ready. More soon","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1238227466122080257","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235170073930879000,"conversation_id":"1235169153964806151","created_at":1583322468000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"11:47:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"(And why does my phone do Franglais - is it because I regularly switch between languages? Random accents appearing in all my typing these days.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1235170073930878983","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235169523713663000,"conversation_id":"1235169153964806151","created_at":1583322337000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"11:45:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"(My expérience of referencing software is that they all prone to crash just when you are in final stretches of project, especially when under pressure.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1235169523713662976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235169153964806100,"conversation_id":"1235169153964806151","created_at":1583322249000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"11:44:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Tweeps: does someone have a guide to having multiple users using Paperpile with a single  google doc, apart from ‘don’t do it’? Thanks in advance.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1235169153964806151","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234590652844912600,"conversation_id":"1234589243781058561","created_at":1583184323000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"21:25:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"It seems to suggest a degree of fatalism. Viruses have rules, not magic. Spread is not inevitable, it requires learning the rules. (To quote the great Myron Cohen.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1234590652844912645","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234521318013448200,"conversation_id":"1234520138285768705","created_at":1583167793000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"16:49:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"There are awe inspiring programs developing and testing vaccines going on round the clock, right now.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1234521318013448194","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234491673473962000,"conversation_id":"1234490545071968258","created_at":1583160725000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"14:52:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Most infections, especially in the young and healthy, are very mild. The aim of screening is to prevent spread to more vulnerable people prone to serious outcomes and also protect hospitals that we all depend on.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1234491673473961986","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234491204865314800,"conversation_id":"1234490545071968258","created_at":1583160613000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"14:50:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"The sensitivity of the tests depends on the timing. Please help prioritise precious test kits and ask for them only if you meet guidelines. These change frequently, consult your local public health website.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1234491204865314827","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233740643249336300,"conversation_id":"1233738443756384259","created_at":1582981665000,"date":"2020-02-29","time":"13:07:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Most serological studies put the annual proportion infected by flu at about 15%, though quite variable year to year. That would imply that 40 people die per 100,000 people infected, give or take - a infection fatality rate of 0.04%    5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233740643249336320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233738955075571700,"conversation_id":"1233738443756384259","created_at":1582981263000,"date":"2020-02-29","time":"13:01:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Second, the vast majority of flu cases are not reported or diagnosed, so data are pieced together from various surveillance systems and studies. 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233738955075571713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233738744953495600,"conversation_id":"1233738443756384259","created_at":1582981213000,"date":"2020-02-29","time":"13:00:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"First off, flu mortality is sufficiently low that it is hard to measure, and requires a degree of modelling just to get at. That in itself tells you something. 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":134,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233738744953495558","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233738443756384300,"conversation_id":"1233738443756384259","created_at":1582981141000,"date":"2020-02-29","time":"12:59:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Discussions emphasising 'COVID19 is more serious than flu' will probably become moot in the coming days and weeks, and for many people already have, but in case you are engaged in them, I would consider trying to get accurate numbers for flu, and to make some general points. 1/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":372,"likes_count":645,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1233738443756384259","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232060205351022600,"conversation_id":"1232059191671562241","created_at":1582581018000,"date":"2020-02-24","time":"21:50:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"We have some time: public health interventions, personal commitment of frontline workers around the world, and advances in science and information sharing, are buying us time to prepare and improve our responses and resilience. We should use this time as wisely as we can.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1232060205351022594","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221544733148885000,"conversation_id":"1221543508139528194","created_at":1580073934000,"date":"2020-01-26","time":"21:25:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"Figure 3B shows very encouraging findings, indicating impressive reductions in the time taken to isolate patients after symptoms. Rapid and effective case isolation, as indicated by figure 3B, could play a key role in containing the epidemic.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1221544733148884993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221075407757369300,"conversation_id":"1221063422978199553","created_at":1579962038000,"date":"2020-01-25","time":"14:20:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"By ‘reaction’ here I mean attempting containment. This requires public support. Containment measures most effective when enacted early, usually in the face of considerable uncertainty, before all data are in hand to perform detailed risk assessments.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1221075407757369345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1221068963859370000,"conversation_id":"1221063422978199553","created_at":1579960502000,"date":"2020-01-25","time":"13:55:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":2409592178,"username":"christophraser","name":"Christophe Fraser","place":"","tweet":"It's also key to keep updating our perspective as new data emerges, and adapt reaction measures accordingly. There is still a window of opportunity for containment, huge efforts are under way, and need full support from the international community.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/ChristoPhraser/status/1221068963859369985","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"2409592178","username":"ChristoPhraser"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274863399445414000,"conversation_id":"1274860313360371712","created_at":1592786094000,"date":"2020-06-22","time":"00:34:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Sorry, overtired.\n\nThe math: 1 million counted cases a week now, 9 million cumulative as of tomorrow.\n10-20 fold under-reported = 10-20 million infections per week.\n150,000 counted cases a day, 7000 deaths a day; 50,000 deaths per week.\nR(t) only 1.3 to 1.4 globally.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274863399445413888","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274758558144487400,"conversation_id":"1274750660093804544","created_at":1592761098000,"date":"2020-06-21","time":"17:38:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Sorry for the subtweet, but we used to call this \"heresay-based medicine\" to contrast with EBM.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":88,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274758558144487424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274750660093804500,"conversation_id":"1274750660093804544","created_at":1592759215000,"date":"2020-06-21","time":"17:06:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Proposal:\n\n\"I am a pediatrician and my friends are pediatricians and we are fine with kids going to schools\"\n\nis the same level of evidence as:\n\n\"9 out of 10 doctors surveyed smoke Chesterfields\"\n\ndiscuss.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":38,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":435,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274750660093804544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274745532045578200,"conversation_id":"1274745099033993217","created_at":1592757993000,"date":"2020-06-21","time":"16:46:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"You can see that both PQ and ON are re-equilibrating at R~1 (endemic disease) after a period of declining incidence.  As PQ declined more, their new endemic equilibrium is lower than ON's.\n\nOther provinces: playing whack-a-mole...dealing with periodic surges/SS events. Low prev.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274745532045578245","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274407457624920000,"conversation_id":"1274407312799784960","created_at":1592677389000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"18:23:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"so widespread coverage in younger individuals who respond best to vaccines is a great way to protect older individuals indirectly.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274407457624920077","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1274400623635636200,"conversation_id":"1274398113550209025","created_at":1592675760000,"date":"2020-06-20","time":"17:56:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Once we're talking medical humour: here's a joke told to me yesterday by an older guy who had just had urological surgery:\n\nHim: \"Hey doc, do us old guys wear boxers or briefs?\"\n\nMe: ...\n\nHim: \"Depends!\" [a ha ha ha ha]","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1274400623635636224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273993690592301000,"conversation_id":"1273993551030951938","created_at":1592578740000,"date":"2020-06-19","time":"14:59:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Get ready for fall","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273993690592301056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273649695043305500,"conversation_id":"1273644331597996038","created_at":1592496725000,"date":"2020-06-18","time":"16:12:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Anyway, kids are clearly protected against disease, and maybe even infection, but dynamics and contact are also important, and right now kids have the highest fraction test positivity in Ontario.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273649695043305472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273595366965993500,"conversation_id":"1273595366965993473","created_at":1592483772000,"date":"2020-06-18","time":"12:36:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"school has never been without risk\"\n\nwhen you know you're winning.\n\n#FacePalm","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":144,"hashtags":["#facepalm"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273595366965993473","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273272272044818400,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592406740000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"15:12:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Hopefully this is useful to people.  Am tidying up and will post as a preprint asap.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273272272044818433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273272193909219300,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592406721000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"15:12:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"If you want to calculate the probability of death formally, the equation is:\n\nP(die)  = 1/(exp-(-9.99 + 0.34 x Score)+1) \n\nWhere did these numbers come from?  -9.99 is the logit model intercept and 0.34 is the coefficient for the rule in a logit model.  Blah blah blah.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273272193909219329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273271193173479400,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592406483000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"15:08:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"We can't do an ROC tweetorial right now but the area under these curves is an index of discriminatory ability across all positive cut-points.  AUC = 0.5 would be a coin toss.\n\nThe AUC for this model is > 0.9 in both derivation and validation sets, which is really good.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273271193173479429","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273270855330562000,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592406402000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"15:06:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It's pretty good, and \"well calibrated\"...as the score goes up actual risk of death goes up.  The second feature of prediction rules is discrimination, how well they divide people into baskets.  We do this using \"ROC curves\" (derived from WW II studies of radar).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273270855330562049","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273269362372337700,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592406046000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"15:00:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It's actually one of four rules but it works best and is parsimonious I think.\n\nIt uses something called \"split halves\" validation, where we have so many covid cases in Ontario now that we can split the dataset in two.  One set is used to construct (derive) the rule, and then...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273269362372337665","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273266922927394800,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592405465000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"14:51:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"identify folks who you want to include in clinical trials, or (in the context of opening up) identify those who may be at particular risk if exposed to COVID-19","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273266922927394816","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273266267554750500,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592405308000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"14:48:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The idea with a prediction rule is that you take a (usually) logistic regression model (something that has a yes=no outcome) and you convert the model coefficients into a simple point score that folks can use to evaluate risk.  These rules have ...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273266267554750465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273266048570138600,"conversation_id":"1273266048570138625","created_at":1592405256000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"14:47:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I want to follow up on a thread I started but abandoned last night.  I have been working on clinical prediction rules that predict death in folks with identified covid (obviously the tip of an iceberg).  It is remarkably easy to predict those at increased risk of death.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":41,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1273266048570138625","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272493061243838500,"conversation_id":"1272377737982939136","created_at":1592220962000,"date":"2020-06-15","time":"11:36:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"you can't fight an enemy you can't see\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1272493061243838465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272253769829539800,"conversation_id":"1272253451028893699","created_at":1592163910000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"19:45:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It's really good.\n\nAlso: works nicely for Ontario's own special COVID-19 response 😬.  Imagine:\n\n\"Help us make a MESS.  Brought to you by the govt of Ontario\".","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":240,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1272253769829539842","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272253451028893700,"conversation_id":"1272253451028893699","created_at":1592163834000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"19:43:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I have a twitter friend who may want to remain anonymous but who suggested that a great acronym for safe reopening in Ontario is: M.E.S.S.\nM-masks\nE-environment (outdoors)\nS-short interactions\nS-keep lots of space between you.\n\nI'm not sure if you want to own this, twitter friend","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":101,"likes_count":440,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1272253451028893699","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272166692081340400,"conversation_id":"1272166200064311296","created_at":1592143149000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"13:59:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Because honestly, this looks like a travesty","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":55,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1272166692081340416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272092413205663700,"conversation_id":"1272091876435333120","created_at":1592125440000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"09:04:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"*locales","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1272092413205663745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1271427752781131800,"conversation_id":"1271427752781131777","created_at":1591966972000,"date":"2020-06-12","time":"13:02:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Captain Emeritus of the Titanic","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1271427752781131777","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270882290923712500,"conversation_id":"1270882290923712514","created_at":1591836924000,"date":"2020-06-11","time":"00:55:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Phase 3 of reopening is \"most businesses\".  We're told the decisions will be driven by \"epidemiology\".\n\nSome businesses that expect to open in phase 3 appear to have been given hard, region-specific dates for late June and early July.\n\nThat's because:","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":67,"likes_count":169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1270882290923712514","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270803320253354000,"conversation_id":"1270803320253353987","created_at":1591818096000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"19:41:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"The surges in the US right now are happening notably in states south of the Mason-Dixon line.  Could Florida and Arizona surges be driven by the tendency to be INDOORS more in summer in very hot places?  Sort of the flip of behavior here in Canada.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":30,"retweets_count":68,"likes_count":339,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1270803320253353987","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270724301985943600,"conversation_id":"1270724301985943552","created_at":1591799257000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"14:27:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Find someone who loves you like our cat loves kibble.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1270724301985943552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269065546483609600,"conversation_id":"1269062903682019331","created_at":1591403779000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"00:36:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Curious what others think.  I think at minimum that's a bit of a confusing figure vs. X-axis is backwards vs. the interpretation may not be quite right.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1269065546483609608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269065210914054100,"conversation_id":"1269062903682019331","created_at":1591403699000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"00:34:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It's a meta-reg, so I think the X-axis is not distance from the case but rather the definition of \"distance\" used in the study. If that is so then the interpretation wouldn't really be declining risk as you move away from folks, but rather diminishing returns the further away u r","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1269065210914054146","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269029529269477400,"conversation_id":"1269029529269477378","created_at":1591395191000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:13:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Ontario: we follow the science\n\nEveryone, basically: here is some science.\n\nOntario: No not THAT science, different science.\n\nE,b: Here is more science.\n\nO: Sorry today’s press conference is no longer happening.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":122,"likes_count":488,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1269029529269477378","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268545391026483200,"conversation_id":"1268545391026483203","created_at":1591279764000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"14:09:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Call me a maverick, I still think throwing staplers at your subordinates is problematic workplace behaviour","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":31,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":241,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1268545391026483203","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267976547576791000,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591144141000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:29:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"It's why preparation now is of the essence.  In Ontario we have identified a lot of bugs in our public health and healthcare systems, particularly related to lab capacity, information systems, and communication.  In a sense that's great, because if this disease...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":184,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267976547576791043","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267976301052387300,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591144082000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:28:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"which jibes with that idea.\n\nIf that's true, that means we are likely to have a very challenging winter ahead of us: lots of susceptibility, weariness of distancing, and a seasonally juiced virus with lots of susceptible folks to infect.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":158,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267976301052387329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267976083825217500,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591144030000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:27:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Why is this important?  Because the very waning of COVID-19 in the northern hemisphere right now, despite pretty crappy disease control efforts in many places, suggests it is indeed a very seasonal pattern.  I've also noted the concave up patterns in S America right now.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267976083825217536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267975597092987000,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591143914000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:25:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"And ultimately will turn into predictable seasonal disease.  But that initial crazy trajectory of a pandemic depends in part on the random element of when the disease emerges.  Early waves can die but then come back with a vengeance due to seasonal boosting.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267975597092986881","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267973698008633300,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591143462000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:17:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"They look pretty different.  It's the same model, same parameters.  Just seeding it at different times means that the epidemics get boosted or suppressed by seasonal changes in R.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267973698008633345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267972373870977000,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591143146000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:12:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Because the fraction susceptible is around 1, we can get out of season epidemics with pandemic pathogens.  These are called \"herald waves\".\n\nLet's add a single stochastic element to our model...I'll seed the model with a single case at a random time of year.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267972373870977026","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267972101413183500,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591143081000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:11:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"We don't know when a novel pathogen is going to emerge.  Perhaps it'll be at \"peak season\" (with respect to its R0) when it emerges, perhaps it'll be \"off season\".  E.g., summertime emergence for a flu virus, wintertime emergence for (summertime seasonal) cholera.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267972101413183494","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267971850782605300,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591143021000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:10:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Now let's throw in some randomness (\"stochasticity\")...because again, although these waves look irregular, this model produces exactly the same outputs every time I run it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267971850782605317","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267970860473778200,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591142785000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:06:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"This isn't annual periodicity.  We could muck about with the numbers and get this to have an \"intrinsic\" oscillatory frequency that's the same as the oscillatory frequency of R0, and then we could have seasonal epidemics as with flu.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267970860473778178","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267970537441067000,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591142708000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:05:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So we've got some cool waves.  That looks like what happens with pandemics.  If I run this out over a long time (200 years, here) u can see that the combination of replenishment of susceptibility (births, deaths, viral drift) with some seasonal forcing gives us periodic epidemics","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267970537441067011","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267968375772364800,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591142193000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:56:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I'm going to make an SEIRS model (susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible) model such as we might use for flu.  People lose immunity over time...perhaps as a result of viral drift.\n\nThis model is initially deterministic (get the same result every time).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267968375772364801","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267966969967513600,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591141857000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:50:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Also, because nobody has baseline immunity R ~ R0 so attack rates are predictably high.\nBut wait: why doesn't this just rip through this susceptible population in a single wave?  Why did we have an R ~ 3 in Ontario in March and now (despite weak distancing) do we have an R ~ 1?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267966969967513600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267966461542379500,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591141736000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:48:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"SARS-CoV-2 is different, because nobody, in any age group, has pre-existing immunity.  Those who are predisposed to death, conditional on infection, are not protected against infection, as they were in 2009.\n\nHence mortality patterns that look like this in Ontario (X-axis = age)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":121,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267966461542379523","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267965863560466400,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591141594000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:46:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Pandemics have initial R ~ R0.  That's why the epidemics are so large.  \n\nIn the 2009 influenza pandemic, this wasn't true.  Those born prior to 1957 had early life experience with a related H1N1 influenza A virus, and were protected against infection.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267965863560466438","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267965582739112000,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591141527000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:45:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I think I've used this analogy before, but epidemics are like gardens: you need the seed (pathogen) and the soil (susceptible population and conditions that permit R0 > 1).\n\nAs R ~ R0 x S (proportion of the population that's susceptible), and S ~ 1 at the beginning of a pandemic","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267965582739111936","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267964828691431400,"conversation_id":"1267964828691431424","created_at":1591141347000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:42:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I'm not sure if anyone's in the mood for this, given the state of N America right now, but I keep getting asked whether another wave of COVID-19 is \"possible\".\n\nI think that it is all but a certainty.  Why are multiple waves a signature feature of pandemics?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":393,"likes_count":1002,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267964828691431424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267828094590570500,"conversation_id":"1267827931734110213","created_at":1591108747000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"14:39:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Note (above) that some provinces have R > 1 (BC right now).  That reflects instability in R when counts get very low.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267828094590570496","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267444928382197800,"conversation_id":"1267120068225142784","created_at":1591017393000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"13:16:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I’m simply pointing out the very different shapes of curved.  The US is linear, S American curves are concave up.  That’s an important qualitative difference.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1267444928382197762","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266820764830924800,"conversation_id":"1266820764830924800","created_at":1590868581000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"19:56:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"You must be new around here","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1266820764830924800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266494664632422400,"conversation_id":"1266494339880009730","created_at":1590790833000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"22:20:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So tired of the stupid","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":183,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1266494664632422403","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265406300038598700,"conversation_id":"1265406300038598658","created_at":1590531346000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"22:15:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Remember: covid fills icus the way mark twain lost his money.  Slowly, then all at once.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":56,"likes_count":219,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1265406300038598658","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264690515129307100,"conversation_id":"1264690515129307136","created_at":1590360690000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"22:51:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"For the genius academics who think mass gatherings of young adults in Toronto are cool because Y.A. themselves r at low risk of death: please try to learn a bit about why communicable disease are called *communicable* diseases.\n\nK thx bye","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":48,"retweets_count":368,"likes_count":1761,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1264690515129307136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262911233382105000,"conversation_id":"1262910771719278594","created_at":1589936476000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"01:01:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I do think there's an uptick in R globally over the past 2 weeks, from 1 to around 1.2 now.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262911233382105089","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262910771719278600,"conversation_id":"1262910771719278594","created_at":1589936366000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"00:59:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Global CFR is falling, interestingly, from slightly above 7% to 6.6% currently.  There may be some acceleration of growth emerging vs. emergence of countries with younger population distributions (India) vs. large Russian epidemic with likely undercounted deaths.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262910771719278594","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262759779870507000,"conversation_id":"1262759779870507010","created_at":1589900367000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"14:59:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Understand: lousy public health leadership is costing our province billions of dollars a month.\n\nSometimes it's worth paying for the upgrade.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":113,"likes_count":434,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262759779870507010","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262759376416198700,"conversation_id":"1262759376416198658","created_at":1589900270000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"14:57:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"We established performance benchmarks, but didn't bother to implement a means to measure whether or not we are actually meeting them\", would be a great way to get fired from any leadership position.\n\nExcept perhaps in public health in Ontario in 2020.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":213,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262759376416198658","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262129337010094000,"conversation_id":"1262110125248086016","created_at":1589750057000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"21:14:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"As is the usual with really good satire, apologies to any of you who took this to be real.  It's a joke.  But it's pretty on-point.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262129337010094080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262129110043811800,"conversation_id":"1262110125248086016","created_at":1589750003000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"21:13:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"\"At the end of every quarter, they blindfold me, take me to an undisclosed location which I suspect is the Chairman of the Board’s rumpus room, show me the quarterly returns, rough me up a little, then blindfold me again, and dump me on the lawn of my University-owned home.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1262129110043811844","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260296459276226600,"conversation_id":"1260296459276226562","created_at":1589313065000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"19:51:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I've had a busy day and haven't been paying attention to twitter.\n\nWhat did Donald Trump fuck up today?  Someone catch me up.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1260296459276226562","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259999345665093600,"conversation_id":"1259999345665093634","created_at":1589242228000,"date":"2020-05-12","time":"00:10:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Something that raw case counts don't show is how often COVID-19 is clustered in families.  Someone brings it home from a job; it infects parents, brothers, sisters.  Some of them die.  Imagine how this will scar these families for years to come.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":191,"likes_count":624,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1259999345665093634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258884414551011300,"conversation_id":"1258812302951960576","created_at":1588976408000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"22:20:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"thanks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1258884414551011331","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258777641211039700,"conversation_id":"1258777476433666053","created_at":1588950951000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"15:15:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Looking at resurgent countries in Asia and Europe, it is becoming clear that the best recipe for economic prosperity and resurgence during a pandemic is aggressive, competent disease control.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":149,"likes_count":414,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1258777641211039744","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258777476433666000,"conversation_id":"1258777476433666053","created_at":1588950911000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"15:15:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"I have previously referred to COVID-19 control as a tight-rope, with economic injury on one side and injury to public health on the other.  I realize now that that is wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":80,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1258777476433666053","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258497494973104000,"conversation_id":"1258496856390356992","created_at":1588884159000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"20:42:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"She needs to do a follow up piece on Russia’s heroic efforts to keep doctors who criticize the pandemic response from accidentally falling out of windows, accidentally.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1258497494973104131","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258490376727429000,"conversation_id":"1258490376727429120","created_at":1588882462000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"20:14:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"When people were prophesying the End Times, they forgot to mention that really good movies would be available for streaming.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1258490376727429120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257315574318694400,"conversation_id":"1257315456106422277","created_at":1588602367000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"14:26:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"H.O.: \"What I may see or hear in the course of the treatment or even outside of the treatment in regard to the life of men, which on no account one must spread abroad, I will keep to myself, holding such things shameful to be spoken about.\"\n\nCurious what others think.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257315574318694402","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257315456106422300,"conversation_id":"1257315456106422277","created_at":1588602339000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"14:25:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Interesting ethical question (I think): if you're a healthcare provider, and you're working in an environment that is unsafe for you and your patients, should you be speaking out about that even though it could be framed as violating Hippocratic oath?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257315456106422277","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257094394110447600,"conversation_id":"1257056258504429570","created_at":1588549633000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"23:47:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Does this mean that 2360 of these infections in healthcare workers are sporadic and have nothing to do with outbreaks in their workplace?\n\nIt seems more likely to me that we are missing a ton of nosocomial covid.  Ratio of “sporadic” to outbreak associated covid in hcw is 10:1?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257094394110447619","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257093246909628400,"conversation_id":"1257056258504429570","created_at":1588549360000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"23:42:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"So we have 233 in patients, and 242 in staff...475 not 472.\n\nWe don’t know if any of those staff were hospitalized.  Let’s assume they weren’t.  That knocks us down to 11% of hospitalized covid being nosocomial.  Still concerning but less.  It also pushes CFR to 14%","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257093246909628416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257064290827358200,"conversation_id":"1256967475390042113","created_at":1588542456000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"21:47:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Well, and yep, looks like that supposition was right on.\n\nIf 1/4 hospitalized COVID cases originated as a hospitalized person without COVID, that would be challenging to capture in our model as currently structured.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257064290827358208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257057056609181700,"conversation_id":"1257056258504429570","created_at":1588540731000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"21:18:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Screen-grabbed in anticipation of this Tableau suddenly being taken down for maintenance.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257057056609181700","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257056652211236900,"conversation_id":"1257056258504429570","created_at":1588540635000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"21:17:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Also interesting: 33 deaths among those who died in hospital.  These would be patients admitted to hospital for another reason who acquired COVID-19 in hospital and died of it.\n\nAgain, we need to do better on IPAC in Ontario hospitals.  Admission screening, regular testing of HCW","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":110,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1257056652211236865","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256989870481784800,"conversation_id":"1256989870481784833","created_at":1588524713000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"16:51:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Parenthetically, for the lawyers in the crowd: I think the slapdash approach to covid testing in healthcare as a means to keep patients and workers safe, is going to keep you busy for many years to come.  It’s unacceptable and (stick a pin in this) the consequences r predictable.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":139,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1256989870481784833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256985798831997000,"conversation_id":"1256985798831996929","created_at":1588523742000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"16:35:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Thanks to those reaching out about unreported covid outbreaks around the province of Ontario.  This is important information as the province moves to restart elective healthcare.\n\nIf you are uncomfortable with lack of transparency, and attention to patient and staff safety...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":104,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1256985798831996929","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256968041084137500,"conversation_id":"1256967475390042113","created_at":1588519508000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"15:25:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"If this is a marker for within-hospital transmission, the lacklustre approach to COVID IPAC would make this unsurprising.\n\nWe need much more top-down guidance on admission screening and regular HCW screening from the province.  It needs to be mandatory or hospitals will opt out.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":82,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1256968041084137473","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256967475390042000,"conversation_id":"1256967475390042113","created_at":1588519374000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"15:22:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Observation: Ontario COVID-19 hospitalization numbers are quite unstable.  I'm starting to think this likely represents transmission WITHIN hospitals.  With the lack of transparency on reporting it's very hard to know what's going on.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":82,"likes_count":260,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1256967475390042113","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256220876418269200,"conversation_id":"1256220876418269184","created_at":1588341371000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"13:56:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Last tweet for the morning:\n\nEconomic revitalization needs to happen.  \n\nWe want it to be sustainable.  \n\nStrong surveillance systems are the foundation for economic revitalization.  Build a strong foundation so the whole thing stays up for as long as possible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":134,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1256220876418269184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255624657807577000,"conversation_id":"1255618311263576066","created_at":1588199221000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"22:27:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"Design your own EXIT strategy.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255624657807577094","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255612662962102300,"conversation_id":"1255600480333574146","created_at":1588196361000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"21:39:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":1096205507348623400,"username":"dfisman","name":"David Fisman","place":"","tweet":"If this pans out, sounds like we will probably want some sort of clinical prediction rule that we can use to AVOID giving a potentially toxic antiviral to those who don't need it.But there's not a lot of good news around COVID-19; this seems to be good news emerging. I'll take it","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1255612662962102272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"1096205507348623360","username":"DFisman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
