{"id":1241876043662680000,"conversation_id":"1241873645439340544","created_at":1584921296000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"23:54:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. We should care about the conditions that prisoners face in our society. Not only does this reflect us as a nation, each and everyone one of us is one bad decision, one unlucky break, one stupid mistake, or one false accusation away from finding ourselves in their shoes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241876043662680065","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241875740246720500,"conversation_id":"1241873645439340544","created_at":1584921224000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"23:53:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. \"Who cares?\" some might ask, \"Prison isn't supposed to be fun.\" \n\nPerhaps not (rehabilitation versus retaliation is a separate debate), but our constitution guarantees certain rights to prisoners, rights that are in grave risk of being denied as #COVID19 spreads.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":91,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241875740246720512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241873645439340500,"conversation_id":"1241873645439340544","created_at":1584920724000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"23:45:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. The US has 2.3 million people behind bars. As #COVID19 #coronavirus makes its way into our prisons, jails, and detention facilities, we are headed toward a humanitarian disaster that is getting very little attention.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":248,"likes_count":576,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241873645439340544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241830403146571800,"conversation_id":"1241599945821409280","created_at":1584910414000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"20:53:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Hi everyone, my apologies if you've asked a legitimate question or made a sincere effort to engage. I'm still getting hundreds of trolls an hour in my mentions, and I simply can't sort through all that sewage as fast as it's piling up.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":219,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241830403146571776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241672885313269800,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584872859000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"10:27:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"32. Thank you so much to everyone who took the time to vote on the poll. I've been working on other disease modeling efforts this evening, and my twitter feed has been swamped by newly-formed troll accounts. I'll return to this tomorrow if necessary. Take care everyone!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":131,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":1721,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241672885313269760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241664542179876900,"conversation_id":"1241659174158655488","created_at":1584870870000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"09:54:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. We are blessed to live in a world surrounded by the  creations of 4 billion years of evolution. Every day I take an hour to spend outside, among them. The crows of Seattle speak to me. Maybe to you, too. Or maybe not yet. Read June's stories. They're here for all of us. \n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":254,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241664542179876864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241663584846753800,"conversation_id":"1241659174158655488","created_at":1584870642000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"09:50:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. And there's a message here for everyone, I believe. We as humans are together going through a very dark time. Most of us, by the grace of God, will emerge out the other side. In the meantime, love and kindness and gratitude and gestures of connection keep us all going.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":278,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241663584846753792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241660433917825000,"conversation_id":"1241659174158655488","created_at":1584869891000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"09:38:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. It can be stressful to deal with the barrage of online abuse from people who take offense at my best efforts to communicate with the public about what we are facing and what we need to do. At times I get dozens of messages a minute calling me a traitor, and worse.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241660433917825024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241659516757749800,"conversation_id":"1241659174158655488","created_at":1584869672000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"09:34:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. Still, it's a stressful time. I'm putting in 100+ hours a week working on ways to mitigate the pandemic and trying to find ways to communicate with the public about this unprecedented and almost unimaginable situation that we find ourselves in.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":162,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241659516757749763","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241659174158655500,"conversation_id":"1241659174158655488","created_at":1584869590000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"09:33:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. The past couple of weeks haven't been easy. No surprise—they've been tough on every one of us. I'm amazingly fortunate to have no underlying health conditions in my immediate family, and to have a steady source of income untied to immediate economic activity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":350,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241659174158655488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241599945821409300,"conversation_id":"1241599945821409280","created_at":1584855469000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"05:37:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Someone has called out the troll brigade and twitter has become an unusable cesspool of people berating me for every imaginable sin and perversion of the so-called coastal elite. \n\nI'm off to do something constructive. \n\nGood night, all. Be kind to yourselves in this hard time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":101,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":1417,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241599945821409280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241596754727821300,"conversation_id":"1241594075486154752","created_at":1584854708000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"05:25:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I can't fix that. But what I can do is say—in a way that harms no one and means a great deal to a few—that I understand some small bit of what you have to struggle with every day, and that I stand with you. \n\nAnd that I love you, for who you are. \n\nThat's why I list my pronouns.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":571,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241596754727821313","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241596043935895600,"conversation_id":"1241594075486154752","created_at":1584854539000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"05:22:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"There are people I love who continually have their gender identity questioned by society. \n\nIt's not easy to comprehend—or at least, it wasn't to me—just how great a toll this takes one's sense of self, one's sense of belonging. But I'm starting to get it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":338,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241596043935895553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241594075486154800,"conversation_id":"1241594075486154752","created_at":1584854069000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"05:14:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"In the aftermath of the thread on that dreadful Medium article, I'm amazed at how many people have commented that I can't be trusted because I list my pronouns (he/him) in my bio. \n\nIt occurs to me that perhaps it is useful to explain why I do that. Others may have other reasons.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":689,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241594075486154752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241585163298979800,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584851945000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"04:39:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Well, I'd rather think a rap battle between Eminem and Kenny G, but you know....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241585163298979842","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241571061906301000,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584848583000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"03:43:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"31. So the piece has moved on to another right wing conspiracy-sphere website recently banned from Twitter for unfounded personal attacks on a scientist. \n\nShould I continue to go through the article, or get back to my positive efforts (modeling, sci comm) around the crisis?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":247,"retweets_count":104,"likes_count":1584,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241571061906300928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241568648663371800,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584848007000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"03:33:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"30. [Deep breath]\n\nIt looks like this piece has now been taken down by Medium. I'm going to stop now, even though I'm only about half way thought. If it comes back to haunt us, I'll continue the thread.\n\nThanks for reading, and stay safe out there.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":64,"retweets_count":131,"likes_count":3104,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241568648663371777","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241562303465533400,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584846494000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"03:08:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"27. Oh, and in the study that provided these numbers, \"mild\" cases included pneumonia short of hospitalization in a setting where hospitals are already overcrowded. \n\nMild doesn't mean your ordinary cold.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":123,"likes_count":1825,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241562303465533440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241561976364400600,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584846416000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"03:06:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"26. He says \"cases\" in the headline, but \"everyone who is tested\" in the text. These are very different denominators, given the low positive rate he was just trumpeting about in the previous section.\n\nIf a mistake rather than deliberate bullshit, it's amazingly sloppy.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":98,"likes_count":1905,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241561976364400640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241549510943232000,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584843444000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"02:17:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. Wait, are already breaking the data down by country? We were cautioned against that as being misleading just a few paragraphs ago!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":93,"likes_count":2031,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241549510943232001","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241548383644340200,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584843176000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"02:12:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. [pause to take beta-blockers]","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":88,"likes_count":3074,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241548383644340224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241548246658330600,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584843143000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"02:12:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. But that's not the worst part. We have literally over a century's history of mathematical modeling epidemic progression. Some look somewhat bell-like. Others don't. It depends on the circumstances, details of the virus, behavior of the population, interventions, etc.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":160,"likes_count":2592,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241548246658330627","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241544904720801800,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584842346000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"01:59:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. I hate to ascribe to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence, but using this lie to sweep away the disaggregated data is such utter nonsense that I wonder how a silicon valley guy could make this claim by mistake.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":53,"retweets_count":266,"likes_count":3409,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241544904720801792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241541489324220400,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584841532000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"01:45:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. He fails to see that this drop in apparent growth rates is heavily driven by left censoring and shifts in testing strategy. Testing started at different times in different countries, was influenced by case density, and early-on, tests individuals in all stages of disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":145,"likes_count":2344,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241541489324220416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241522144346902500,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584836920000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"00:28:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. Imagine Shakespeare run through google translate into Japanese,  then translated back to English by someone who'd never heard of Shakespeare. So much depth would be missing. \n\nSame here. We end up with loose neologisms like \"virality\" instead of a solid theoretical framework.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":190,"likes_count":3384,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241522144346902529","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241522143600361500,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584836920000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"00:28:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. *Information gets lost in translation.* The author claims to be an expert in making products go viral. I suppose that field has borrowed some ideas from epidemiology. Now he's trying to back-infer how epi works from what he knows about that area. It doesn't work that way.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":195,"likes_count":3489,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241522143600361473","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241522142816002000,"conversation_id":"1241522140559503360","created_at":1584836919000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"00:28:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. You can give me all the stock market data in the world; I don't have the background to make the best use of it because I fundamentally do not understand how the market works or how to take advantage of that understanding. \n\nInfectious disease epidemiology is no different.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":51,"retweets_count":292,"likes_count":4615,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241522142816002048","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241323202124460000,"conversation_id":"1241312155326009346","created_at":1584789488000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"11:18:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Thanks for all the responses. I wasn't thinking of the \"infected after 30 days\" as a cumulative sum, and the idea of computing the expected size of the subcritical branching process threw me.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241323202124460032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241040318234951700,"conversation_id":"1241038714358231047","created_at":1584722043000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"16:34:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, I'm wondering if anyone has CFR data by sex/gender from Italy.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241040318234951683","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240879967161839600,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683813000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:56:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. We are providing ourselves with a chance to make further adjustments—to further slow infection, further turn down the tap—once things become dire.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240879967161839617","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240879910853337000,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683799000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:56:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. This why we need to take proactive measures to flatten the curve. The slower the water is flowing into the hose, the more time you have between when the funnel is nearly full and when the funnel spills over. \n\nBy flattening the curve, slowing the flow, we buy ourselves time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":135,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240879910853337088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240879656661704700,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683739000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:55:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. Without adequate hospital capacity, people die unnecessarily.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240879656661704705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240879028619247600,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683589000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:53:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. The faster infections occur, the faster the water flows. If the rate that at which symptomatic individuals enter the hospital exceeds the rate at which patients are discharged, the patient population grows—the funnel starts to fill up.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240879028619247616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240878084774965200,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683364000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:49:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5.  Even if we could abruptly halt new infections, we'd still see a many-fold increase in the demand on hospitals as disease progresses in patients already infected but not yet hospitalized.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":181,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240878084774965248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240878003443261400,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683345000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:49:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. Right now the epidemic is doubling in size every 5-6 days or so. But it takes roughly 5 days from infection to developing symptoms, and roughly another 5 days until hospitalization is required.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":211,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240878003443261445","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240877948892115000,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683332000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:48:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. The answer is that we need to #FlattenTheCurve *now* because if we wait until our hospitals are full to take strong measures, it will be too late. The #COVID19 #coronavirus epidemic has momentum, and we cannot turn it on a dime.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":58,"likes_count":255,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240877948892114949","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240877435836436500,"conversation_id":"1240877435836436481","created_at":1584683209000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"05:46:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. Around the United States today, hospitals are preparing for a surge of #COVID19 patients and suffering shortages of protective equipment, but few if any have reached the point of outright crisis with insufficient capacity to provide adequate care for patients coming in.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":21,"retweets_count":279,"likes_count":580,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240877435836436481","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240863353771180000,"conversation_id":"1240802829515640832","created_at":1584679852000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"04:50:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Obviously when I say virulence I mean the same thing you do when you say transmissibility. Why are you people nitpicking semantics instead of realizing that we are on the same team here?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":143,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240863353771180032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240819068380131300,"conversation_id":"1240819068380131329","created_at":1584669293000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"01:54:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"California governor Gavin Newsome has issued a state-wide stay home order in his ongoing press conference.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240819068380131329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240803788035784700,"conversation_id":"1240802829515640832","created_at":1584665650000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"00:54:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Not in the report, but particularly virulent strains include \"The areas under curve should be the same, dumbass!\", \"What's so hard about estimating CFR?\", and \"Who needs the Harvard School of Public Health when you've got Elon Musk?\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":282,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240803788035784704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240803290356412400,"conversation_id":"1240802829515640832","created_at":1584665532000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"00:52:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"\"Signs of DKE-19 generally appear 3–5 days after learning that the word “epidemiology” is not the study of skin diseases. Symptoms vary, but include extreme claims, making charts, and publishing on Medium.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":203,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240803290356412416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240730754536992800,"conversation_id":"1240729728421515264","created_at":1584648238000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"20:03:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"This takes a huge toll on mental health.\n\nNot sleeping right? Not getting as much done as you want? Emotionally all over the place? \n\nBe gentle with yourself. You are keeping your head above water and that in and of itself is a major accomplishment given the circumstances.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240730754536992768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240730187253219300,"conversation_id":"1240729728421515264","created_at":1584648102000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"20:01:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We're all struggling, now, to varying degree.\n\nBe gentle with yourself. \n\nPause to take in the scope of what is happening. \n\nYou are going through a once-in-a-lifetime (I very much hope) crisis that is turning our lives upside down in ways we barely could have imagined.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":104,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240730187253219328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240619426379993000,"conversation_id":"1240619426379993089","created_at":1584621695000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"12:41:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"*falls asleep for two hours*\n\n*checks back in at 5 AM*\n\n*timeline is full of people discussing a scientific racist's inane suggestion for coronavirus sampling*\n\n*closes computer*\n\n*can't sleep now*","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240619426379993089","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240553911049584600,"conversation_id":"1240548488733052928","created_at":1584606075000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"08:21:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. My hope is that Trevor's suggestions offer a plausible \"third way\" out of this crisis. \n\nWhat is clear is that we can't sit back and think that we are already doing enough. \n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240553911049584640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240552850461089800,"conversation_id":"1240548488733052928","created_at":1584605822000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"08:17:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. *If* we can lower the number of infected people far enough, we can return to the combination of intensive testing, contact tracing for known cases, and isolation of all contacts that has been effective in South Korea and that would have worked here two months ago.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240552850461089797","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240552285853216800,"conversation_id":"1240548488733052928","created_at":1584605687000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"08:14:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. It's not a pretty picture. My own hope has been that perhaps after an aggressive social distancing / shutdown effort for a few weeks, we can knock #COVID19 #coronavirus infection levels down far enough that containment strategies come back into play.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240552285853216768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240548488733053000,"conversation_id":"1240548488733052928","created_at":1584604782000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"07:59:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. #FlattenTheCurve for #COVID19 #coronavirus was an important message because it helped people understand that we care not only about the total number of infections, but also about the timing of these infections. Too many people infected at once, and hospitals get overwhelmed.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":112,"likes_count":295,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240548488733052928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240098138259521500,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584497410000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"02:10:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Ugh. Momentum, not inertia, is the right metaphor here. Story works fine once you fix my careless terminology.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240098138259521536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240097773581529000,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584497323000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"02:08:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Doh. The boat will have less *momentum*.\n\nNot inertia. Inertia is independent of the boat's speed. \n\nUgh.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240097773581529088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240031714908369000,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584481574000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:46:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. What I believe we have to do is to use the time that #FlattenTheCurve bought us, and adjust our social distancing and other control measures enough to suppress the epidemic entirely, by dropping R0 below 1. \n\nAnything else is too costly in terms of deaths. \n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240031714908368897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240031004644872200,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584481404000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:43:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. If the epidemic is growing unchecked and we wait to act until hospital capacity is maxed out, health systems will be disastrously over capacity by them time our actions take effect. If we slow down the epidemic preemptively, capacity will not be overshot so dramatically.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240031004644872193","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240030817788678100,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584481360000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:42:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. Another point of the #FlattenTheCurve argument that remains relevant today is that to avoid disaster, we have to take *proactive* steps to keep the number of simultaneously infected people as low as possible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240030817788678144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240030617045102600,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584481312000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:41:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. A couple of weeks later, it seems like this message took. The hashtag and diagram appear to done a nice job of answering the \"get-it-over-quickly\" argument, and I see that a lot less.\n\nHopefully the result will be lives saved.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240030617045102595","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240028522048938000,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584480812000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:33:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. This is because hospital care and intensive care are highly valuable for keeping seriously ill #COVID19 patients alive. When many people are infected simultaneously infected, hospital capacity is badly overrun. \"Getting it over with quickly\" ensures disaster of that sort.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240028522048937984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240028115222454300,"conversation_id":"1240027806924296192","created_at":1584480715000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"21:31:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. One primary point of #FlattenTheCurve was to illustrate the flaw in that \"get it over with\" argument. \n\nIn an epidemic, we care not only about how many people are eventually infected, but also about how many people are infected at the same time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1240028115222454272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239846122383757300,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584437325000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"09:28:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. If you #FlattenTheCurve, it's like slowing down the ocean liner. When you see the rocks, there is still time to change the course. If you don't flatten the curve, you'll see the crisis, implement strong measures, and it won't be enough. Hospitals will end up overwhelmed.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":91,"likes_count":363,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239846122383757313","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239845733525631000,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584437232000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"09:27:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. It's really hard to get society to take massively inconvenient steps, shutting schools and workplaces and meeting places, until you see the rocks—the impending disaster. For #COVID19, that basically means lots of very sick people and hospitals beyond capacity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":68,"likes_count":262,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239845733525630976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239845387415859200,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584437150000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"09:25:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. This is the fundamental idea behind #FlattenTheCurve. An epidemic, like any boat, has inertia. An epidemic like the #COVID19 #coronavirus, with a fast doubling time but a slow progression to severe disease, has a lot of inertia. It's a cruise ship, so to speak.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":66,"likes_count":264,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239845387415859201","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239844963401126000,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584437049000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"09:24:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. If you come in slow, you may not see the rocks from any further away, but when you turn the wheel, the boat will have less inertia and will change course in a shorter distance. You'll be able to steer through the strait and avoid disaster.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":59,"likes_count":219,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239844963401125888","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239844679908085800,"conversation_id":"1239843002756952066","created_at":1584436981000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"09:23:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Ocean liners have a huge amount of inertia. They don't turn on a dime like a speedboat. If you steam into the strait at high velocity, you may see the rocks ahead and turn the wheel—but the boat will continue for too long on its previous course, and you'll crash.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":55,"likes_count":182,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239844679908085760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239822007887212500,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584431576000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:52:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"21. Given that, we have to make sure that we can correct course with a minimum of additional strain on the healthcare system. And that means encouraging people to take strong social distancing measures in advance of the crisis. In other words, to #FlattenTheCurve.\n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239822007887212544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239821710888554500,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584431505000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:51:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"20. Why not just institute strong NPIs well in advance of reaching hospital capacity? In a perfect world, we would. But this isn't a such world. \n\nPeople aren't willing to shoulder the burden of extraordinary inconvenience that NPIs require until they SEE the threat firsthand.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":124,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239821710888554499","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239820173076357000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584431138000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:45:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"19. If we fail to flatten the curve in advance, we will overshoot capacity manyfold, with horrible consequences and forcing dreadful triage decisions.\n\nIf we flatten the curve in advance, we will only slightly overshoot capacity even if we wait until crisis to act decisively.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":127,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239820173076357121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239819322899312600,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584430935000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:42:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"18. My view is, and always has been, that it will be difficult to muster the political and social will to implement strong enough NPIs to reduce R0 below 1. \n\nOnly once we see a true crisis, with hospitals reaching or exceeding capacity, will this be feasible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239819322899312640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239818865795715000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584430826000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:40:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. Suppose you proactively reduce R0 to 1.1. When you hit crisis, you implement further NPIs. You've got 10 days of cases in the timeline, but with R0=1.1 and a 6 day generation time, you're looking at only about 20% increase in hospital demand by the end of those 10 days.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239818865795715072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239818048250376200,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584430632000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:37:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. That's what happens if you don't #FlattenTheCurve, and wait until crisis before taking strong action. \n\nIf you flatten the curve, you have more time to respond once you hit the crisis point.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":98,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239818048250376192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239816614511427600,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584430290000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:31:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. In fact, you've got 10 days of cases not yet hospitalized but infected before your NPIs were instituted. Doubling time is 5 days. So 10 days out there will be 4x as many people needing hospitalization each day as there were when you reached crisis. No way to handle that load.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239816614511427584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239815243699835000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584429963000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:26:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. You institute NPIs; new transmissions slow.\n\nBut think back to the timeline I drew. Even if your NPIs slow down transmissions enough that each case creates R0<1 additional cases, you are still in big trouble—there are a lot of not-yet-hospitalized cases in the timeline.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239815243699834882","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239813154873299000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584429465000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:17:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. Now suppose you have the option of enacting strong non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs): school and business closures, social distancing, etc. The epidemic is doubling every 5 days.\n\nSuppose you wait until the crisis point where hospital demand reaches hospital capacity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":89,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239813154873298944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239811629396545500,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584429101000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"07:11:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. Meanwhile, the generation time of the disease is around 6 or 6.5 days. The exact numbers don't matter a lot, but assume that each infection initially generates 2.4 new infections (R0=2.4). \n\nThis puts the doubling time at around five days.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":88,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239811629396545537","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239806947525722000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584427985000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"06:53:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. When we ask people to #FlattenTheCurve for #COVID19 #coronavirus, what we are asking is for them to take aggressive, proactive steps to slow down the spread of the virus *before* the epidemic reaches a crisis point in our hospitals. Simple as that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":81,"likes_count":201,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239806947525722113","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239806946661683200,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584427985000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"06:53:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. If we are not going to let the pandemic sweep through the entire population, why talk about flattening the curve at all? \n\nFor me, the key is this:","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":93,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239806946661683200","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239805587673641000,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584427661000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"06:47:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. Moreover, the Imperial college model (and I think just about any reasonable model) produces enough concurrent cases that the healthcare system is overwhelmed. \n\nIf you let the epidemic go until checked be herd immunity, you end up WAY over the dotted line on the diagram.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":124,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239805587673640961","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239805585064734700,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584427660000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"06:47:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. This has never been my intent, and I feel strongly that we cannot allow this to happen.\n\nThe cost of allowing 20%-80% of the population to become infected is far too high to accept.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":220,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239805585064734720","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239805583504445400,"conversation_id":"1239805581948416001","created_at":1584427660000,"date":"2020-03-17","time":"06:47:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. Why did I think this was an important public health health message a couple of weeks ago when I started pushing it? And why do I think it is still a good message?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239805583504445440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239409319042404400,"conversation_id":"1239408482379370496","created_at":1584333183000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"04:33:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"In our family, we've decided to patronize our local establishments by ordering takeout several times this week. If you value those who contribute to making your community a place that you enjoy living, please consider doing the same.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":151,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239409319042404353","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239354193757925400,"conversation_id":"1239348331186249728","created_at":1584320040000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"00:54:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Thank you, but as a professor at a state institution, the public has long paid my salary precisely in the hope that I might some day be able to contribute in this way.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":203,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239354193757925377","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239352934388732000,"conversation_id":"1239348331186249728","created_at":1584319740000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"00:49:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm exhausted. This sort of thing takes a huge mental and emotional toll—because it matters, and because you get hit with a torrent of hatred for your efforts. Please help me fight #disinformation on #COVID19 #coronavirus. \n\nThe virus is more than formidable enough on its own.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":115,"retweets_count":249,"likes_count":1772,"hashtags":["#disinformation","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239352934388731907","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239351996986998800,"conversation_id":"1239348331186249728","created_at":1584319516000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"00:45:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Lots of lessons here. \n\nMay be the most important is that if the scariest, most dramatic version of events is coming from unnamed second-hand sources, and named verifiable sources are giving more tempered reports—be skeptical of the alarmist account.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":359,"likes_count":1065,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239351996986998789","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239350064654340000,"conversation_id":"1239348331186249728","created_at":1584319056000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"00:37:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Several Seattle-area MDs and other health professionals disputed the account. No one confirmed.\n\nI can see why they didn't want to go too public about it—since questioning the story I've been slammed with all sorts of vitriol and libel. As I expected to be.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":124,"likes_count":678,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239350064654340096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239348732195295200,"conversation_id":"1239348331186249728","created_at":1584318738000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"00:32:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"It was based on a second-hand account from an unnamed physician at an unnamed Seattle-area hospital.\n\nWhen I contacted the author of the thread, he was not forthcoming with any details about where this was happening or who the source was.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":135,"likes_count":686,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239348732195295232","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239311652165529600,"conversation_id":"1239309547447021569","created_at":1584309897000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"22:04:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"If this is untrue, it would be VERY useful to have a first-hand debunking from a Seattle-area medic with actual name, credentials that can be validated, etc. \n\nTo me, this looks a lot like other misinformation panic-memes I've seen going around.\n\n #COVID19 #misinformation?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":["#covid19","#misinformation"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239311652165529600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239232000696836000,"conversation_id":"1239231561343438848","created_at":1584290907000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"16:48:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Are there particular YouTube videos that concisely explain to this group that, even though #COVID19 #coronavirus in their age range tends to be mild, it is essential that they do their part for older and for high-risk people? \n\nOr good graphics / memes? \n\nOr even suggested text?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239232000696836098","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239231561343438800,"conversation_id":"1239231561343438848","created_at":1584290802000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"16:46:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"If I could get some of the major social media influencers for the twenty-something adult demographic to send out messages about how important it is that they #FlattenTheCurve by social distancing against #COVID19 #coronavirus, what specific content would be best to send?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":80,"retweets_count":80,"likes_count":270,"hashtags":["#flattenthecurve","#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239231561343438848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239073570275262500,"conversation_id":"1239071378315202560","created_at":1584253134000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"06:18:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"And when I read this two weeks ago, as I am today, I was working a 14 hour day and trying to prepare for the coming storm of this pandemic and praying that it will not too badly disrupt my ordinary life....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239073570275262464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239027851321458700,"conversation_id":"1239024609178955776","created_at":1584242234000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"03:17:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Apologies to anyone whose genuine posts I miss in this torrent of sewage.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239027851321458688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239022696081404000,"conversation_id":"1239021439920902144","created_at":1584241005000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"02:56:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I have been at the University of Washington for 19 years now, and from my first day walking across campus I've been intensely proud to serve a public institution. \n\nAnd yet I've never felt as proud of my colleagues as I do today.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":381,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239022696081403905","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239018689136976000,"conversation_id":"1239015614217216000","created_at":1584240050000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"02:40:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, this is an absolute failing of policy and planning.\n\nThis could have been entirely avoided. \n\nAnd now it will *without doubt* accelerate the epidemic of #COVID19 #coronavirus with the US.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":128,"likes_count":587,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1239018689136975872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238964877302968300,"conversation_id":"1238964877302968321","created_at":1584227220000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"23:07:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"On the positive side I am absolutely crushing Lent this year.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238964877302968321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238674247100203000,"conversation_id":"1238674247100203008","created_at":1584157928000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"03:52:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We've got a serious diversity problem in #epitwitter land. \nVirtually 100% of the hopelessly uninformed, absurdly arrogant takes in which those with no background claim basic logic makes it clear that epidemiologists have it all wrong—virtually all of these come from white males.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":41,"likes_count":297,"hashtags":["#epitwitter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238674247100203008","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238664813456134100,"conversation_id":"1238663244748738560","created_at":1584155679000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"03:14:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'd recommend that Dr. Mass stick to climate denial, where at least the harm he causes is sufficiently far in the future that he will face minimal personal reckoning.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238664813456134144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238443532454518800,"conversation_id":"1238362752575361029","created_at":1584102921000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"12:35:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"\"I guess you're right, sweetie. CRISPR is indeed a microbial immune system.\"\n\n\"No, dad, adaptive immunity is a vertebrate CRISPR system.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":177,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238443532454518784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238362752575361000,"conversation_id":"1238362752575361029","created_at":1584083662000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"07:14:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"My daughter is learning immunology in high school biology. I was explaining how memory B cells work.\n\n\"Oh, why didn't you just tell me it was the same as CRISPR?\"\n\nMind blown. \n\nThe pace of biology is amazing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":418,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238362752575361029","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238276802025369600,"conversation_id":"1238263122739236865","created_at":1584063170000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"01:32:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So I see three possibilities: \n\n(1) the doubling time in Ohio is much, much, faster than elsewhere, or \n\n(2) the index case was far, far earlier than Feb. 1, or \n\n(3) Amy Acton is wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238276802025369600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238264597641072600,"conversation_id":"1238263122739236865","created_at":1584060260000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"00:44:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Does anyone have any idea where this estimate comes from? It's important to take this situation very seriously, and to take dramatic action—but putting unrealistically high numbers forward is a big mistake in that ultimately undermines public confidence in health officials.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238264597641072644","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238201796201341000,"conversation_id":"1238197501502476288","created_at":1584045287000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"20:34:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"NB: This version of the #SlowTheSpread / #FlattenTheCurve graph has been scientifically designed using advanced techniques in social media analysis to mathematically optimize its own spread on the internet. \n\nTranslation: It has a cat.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":["#slowthespread","#flattenthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1238201796201340928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237959290985435100,"conversation_id":"1237915231763877890","created_at":1583987469000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"04:31:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"\"Never did like them shifty-lookin' chickens anyway.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1237959290985435136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237957532179558400,"conversation_id":"1237915231763877890","created_at":1583987050000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"04:24:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Maybe \"closing the chicken coop door after the horse is gone\" is a better metaphor, really.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1237957532179558400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237918265696874500,"conversation_id":"1237609001489072129","created_at":1583977688000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"01:48:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. In tonight's address, Trump continues to recommend social distancing to elderly only: \"In general older Americans should also avoid non-essential travel in crowded areas.\"\n\nNo. EVERYONE should avoid such, if not for their own health, for the health of the vulnerable among us.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":53,"likes_count":207,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1237918265696874496","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
