{"id":1243838733582917600,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585389238000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:53:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"20. If I understand correctly, these confidence intervals are predicated on assumptions about the model structure, on the assumption that we can achieve and maintain lockup, and even on the parameters estimated from Wuhan. \n\nI welcome clarification on this point if I am mistaken.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":214,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243838733582917634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243836015720063000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585388590000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:43:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. The present white paper is just the background to a flashy website that shows hospital demand forecasts for every state in the union—an issue of immediate policy relevance. Few will read it; even for those that do, the caveats are hard to find.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":219,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243836015720062977","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243835452169146400,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585388455000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:40:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. Scientists make conjectural models that serve valid scientific purposes by show consequences of different methods and assumptions. \n\nPoliticians and pundits seize upon these and shove them into policy pigeonholes, using them as bludgeons against their perceived \"opposition\".","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":75,"likes_count":350,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243835452169146368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243832981124309000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585387866000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:31:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. And I think we'll see large variation among states, both in the measures enacted and in factors like population density, transit use, and compliance. \n\nMeanwhile we have an executive branch that wants us all back in church on Easter Sunday.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":274,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243832981124308992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243832582350835700,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585387771000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:29:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. If the model is truly assuming Wuhan-levels of lockdown, I'm worried about whether we can reach that, let alone maintain it. In Seattle, we're ahead of the curve but I saw numerous groups of kids hanging out by the lake last time I went out of the house (Tuesday, I think?).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":308,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243832582350835712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243830723003306000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585387328000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:22:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. One of my biggest concerns about the paper is that if I understand it correctly, it assumes that once a state implements least 3 of {school closures, non-essential business closures, stay-home orders, travel restrictions}, transmission declines as it did in Wuhan.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":297,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243830723003305985","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243829284348682200,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585386985000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:16:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. Another concern: It's not clear to me from the paper whether the authors have in any way corrected for the fact that with testing low and denial around community transmission, many #COVID19 deaths in the US have probably been attributed to other causes, esp. among elderly.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":474,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243829284348682240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243827200622596000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585386488000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:08:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. NB: It's possible that I'm wrong about this, or anything else in this thread for that matter. It's late and I didn't even get a chance to start reading this paper until midnight tonight. I welcome corrections and will post them to the thread.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":193,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243827200622596097","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243825930230878200,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585386185000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:03:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. In other words, there's no underlying mechanistic model, SEIR or otherwise. I'm not an expert in these approaches but I do worry about how, using data from early in an epidemic, you avoid the classic pitfalls of Farr's Law-type modeling.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":38,"likes_count":423,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243825930230878208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243798904212091000,"conversation_id":"1243798783344820225","created_at":1585379742000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"07:15:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"(It was for a good reason. He'd forgotten to register and wanted breakfast.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243798904212090881","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243697728623788000,"conversation_id":"1243697012387659783","created_at":1585355619000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"00:33:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Incidentally, this whole #COVID19 #disinformation business was a lot more fun last January when it only involved tracking odd rumors about crematoria and biological weapons disseminated from shadowy overseas accounts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":137,"hashtags":["#covid19","#disinformation"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243697728623788033","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243697012387659800,"conversation_id":"1243697012387659783","created_at":1585355449000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"00:30:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Thank you to everyone who gave me a rapid temperature-check regarding my dual roles as WA citizen and professional epidemiologist. I will continue to comment from both perspectives.\n\nThe answers were decisive and I've deleted the thread to avoid wasting any more of anyone's time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":341,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243697012387659783","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243417253778878500,"conversation_id":"1243417253778878472","created_at":1585288749000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"05:59:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Goodnight, everyone. I'm going to log off and write for a couple of hours, before I forget the strong selection bias associated with the posts in my mentions and start rooting for the virus.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":530,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243417253778878472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243387772196380700,"conversation_id":"1243384529143791621","created_at":1585281720000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"04:02:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Non-trivial. Though the reefer madness stance comes close. 👏","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243387772196380673","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243374965061062700,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585278667000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:11:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"You may find it disconcerting to realize that the same logic applies to your current sexual partner and his or her past sexual history. Chances are, whoever you are sleeping with now has slept with more people than you have.\n\nSleep well.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":103,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243374965061062656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243374864318124000,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585278643000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:10:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"But the socialite is friends with fifteen people and thus makes fifteen people feel insecure about how few friends they have, whereas the introvert is friends with only five and thus makes only five people feel better about themselves.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243374864318124032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243374818566668300,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585278632000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:10:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Why is it true? \n\nSuppose people have ten friends on average. Now suppose in your circle there is an introvert with five friends and a socialite with fifteen friends. Taken together they average ten friends each.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243374818566668289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243374604359315500,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585278581000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:09:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Can that even be true? Empirically, yes. Sociologist Scott Feld first showed this using a social network of 146 teenaged girls. Small n, sure, but  compiled by interview way back when. It's true on Facebook too. One study found 93% have fewer friends than their median friend.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243374604359315457","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243373601086046200,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585278341000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"03:05:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The strong form is more surprising. It says that my *median* friend has more friends than I do. \n\nAnd not just because I'm an outspoken epidemiologist.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243373601086046208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243371031655415800,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585277729000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"02:55:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"This is somewhat related to the famous Friendship Paradox: most likely,  the majority of your friends have more friends than you do.\n\nThere are weak and strong forms of the friendship paradox.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243371031655415809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243370682886414300,"conversation_id":"1243368126785269760","created_at":1585277646000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"02:54:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"In short, so many famous people have it because they have more social contacts than we do—and they have them with people who also have more social contacts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243370682886414336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243330746728599600,"conversation_id":"1243329074912612353","created_at":1585268124000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"00:15:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, the paper linked might be good. It might even be right. I doubt it, but haven't read it closely. \n\nBut the whole point is that has no bearing on the competence or intellectual honesty of the work coming from Neil Ferguson's team.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243330746728599553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243329715433164800,"conversation_id":"1243329074912612353","created_at":1585267878000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"00:11:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"...or who pretend not to, in order to push an agenda. No one with a rudimentary understanding of how science works would be surprised in the least that a top epi modeling team hasn't worked closely with a pair of engineers thinking about the same thing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243329715433164800","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243329484821913600,"conversation_id":"1243329074912612353","created_at":1585267823000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"00:10:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I see so much of this. Scientists create models and make predictions trying to understand the epidemic. These predictions are immediately picked up and pigeonholes into ideological bins by people who either don't have any idea how science works....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":106,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243329484821913600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243323779205320700,"conversation_id":"1243243867891068928","created_at":1585266463000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"23:47:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"It's as if a seismologist predicts 10,000 deaths from a 7.6 richter scale quake and later predicts 2 deaths from a 5.0 quake.\n\nThat's not a reversal, it's a model producing different outcomes from different scenarios. And doesn't necessarily call either prediction into question.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":150,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243323779205320704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243323313369149400,"conversation_id":"1243243867891068928","created_at":1585266352000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"23:45:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Whatever you think about the numbers in the first and second Imperial College models, please recognize that these are models of two very different scenarios. \n\nIt doesn't make sense to call this a reversal.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":102,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243323313369149440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270093003305000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253663000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"vi. I'll keep doing what I do. My colleagues doing the amazing work in hospitals and laboratories, with simulations and mathematical models, they'll keep on too. \n\nWe may not act like we're all in this together, but in a pandemic, like it or not, we are.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":281,"retweets_count":373,"likes_count":4514,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270093003304960","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270092101570600,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253663000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"v. Perhaps that was dreadfully naive of me, but the world has changed in profound ways since even 2010. Social media, hyper-partisanship, the broad populist distrust of experts,  plummeting standards of factfulness in political discourse....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":246,"likes_count":2153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270092101570560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270091103338500,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253663000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"iv. In all the years of studying infectious disease and planning for this day, I never dreamed that when it came I'd be opposed by my own federal government, a non-trivial fraction of my fellow citizens, and as yet undetermined fraction of hostile foreign actors.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":1028,"likes_count":3744,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270091103338496","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270090239250400,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253663000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"iii. And so the fight against misinformation is not merely a scientific communication issue. It's a vital public health necessity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":637,"likes_count":2839,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270090239250432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270089320743000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253662000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"ii. What is so terrible about the politicization of this pandemic is this: what people believe impacts how they behave, and it impacts the ability of our governments to muster the political will to enact the measures we need to slow and ultimately stop the spread of the virus.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":796,"likes_count":2907,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270089320742912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243270088393805800,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585253662000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"20:14:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"i. A brief postscript. \n\nFor some kinds of scientific communication, it wouldn't matter so much. I was an evolutionary biologist through the heyday of the Intelligent Design movement. Public education was at stake, but millions of lives were not on the line.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":102,"likes_count":1450,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243270088393805825","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243265011788611600,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585252452000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:54:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"21. And I guess this is the crux of the thread, though I didn't know it until I got here.\n\n (Twitter is an odd medium, writing stream-of-consciousness, unable to edit let alone restructure.)\n\nFor me, this is the heartbreaking part. \n\nIt turns out we're not all in this together.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":68,"retweets_count":403,"likes_count":3330,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243265011788611584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243264305417441300,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585252283000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:51:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"20. I try to shake these off, and turn to the day's science news. This gets hard with every consecutive 100-hour week. \n\nEvery day, there are new scicomm crises blowing up, and the thing that kills me is that they are almost without exception MANUFACTURED with political intent.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":318,"likes_count":2349,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243264305417441280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243263898981040000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585252186000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:49:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"19. I'm sure that 99% of these are motivated by what we call tribal epistemology, the idea that truth is determined not so much by the facts as by the way that a claim aligns with the story that a preferred leader is telling.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":440,"likes_count":3169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243263898981040128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243263674225053700,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585252133000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:48:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"18. But there are also a slew of vicious invectives. Attacks on my motives, my character, my intelligence. Calls for me to be reprimanded or fired by my university for my efforts (for what, I still don't understand). Ill wishes regarding my health. You name it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":151,"likes_count":1568,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243263674225053698","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243263018630140000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251977000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:46:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. Every morning I wake up after 4-6 hours of fitful sleep; in that time I've received hundreds of comments, email messages, DMs, and other communications. Many are positive and supportive and I appreciate them very much.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":112,"likes_count":1926,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243263018630139904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243262747032223700,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251912000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:45:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. Because I've spent this pandemic at the interface of the research and scientific communication domains, I haven't been able to do that. \n\nAnd it's exhausting. It's demoralizing. I feel genuine sorrow over the way our society has become so polarized.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":283,"likes_count":3007,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243262747032223744","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243262394345738200,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251828000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:43:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. I think that some of the best practicing epidemiologists right now may be able to largely turn a blind eye to the social furor churning around their work, especially if they are not immediately involved in setting policy. At least I hope that they are.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":130,"likes_count":1711,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243262394345738240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243261558454489000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251628000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:40:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. In this environment, when unexpected facts come to light — a higher than anticipated R0, for example — they are used to discredit scientists who made correct inferences given the data that they had available at the time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":247,"likes_count":2341,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243261558454489088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243261110968406000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251522000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:38:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. Every twist and turn that the pandemic takes is seized upon by one side or other to claim that some fraction of us are incompetent if not outright mendacious. \n\nResearchers are pilloried for updating their beliefs based on new information.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":284,"likes_count":2157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243261110968406016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243260498134499300,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251376000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:36:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. But we are also fighting on a second front that we did not anticipate, fighting a battle against misinformation and disinformation in a hyper-partisan environment where our predictions and recommendations about the pandemic response are deeply politicized.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":1079,"likes_count":4624,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243260498134499328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243260105132355600,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251282000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:34:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. Fast forward to the current crisis. As infectious disease epidemiologists, biomedical researchers, and health professionals more broadly, we're fighting a battle against the biggest crisis in decades.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":231,"likes_count":1742,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243260105132355584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243259313293897700,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585251093000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:31:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. And during this entire period, it certainly never occurred to us that there might some day be an axis along which our models and predictions about the future trajectory of epidemic would be deemed politically desirable or oppugnant.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":221,"likes_count":2052,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243259313293897733","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243258502023229400,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585250900000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:28:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. We don't stake out positions on day 1 and then defend them as if our reputation depends on it. Rather, reputations depend on being flexible in light of new findings. You don't drop an idea just because it is criticized; you fight for it. But you also walk away when it's time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":428,"likes_count":3489,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243258502023229440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243256811882311700,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585250497000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:21:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. There's no gotcha-ism. Updating your models and predictions in light of new evidence and new inferential methods and insightful counterpoints from colleagues isn't a sign of weakness, it's *doing science*.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":751,"likes_count":4577,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243256811882311682","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243255981464629200,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585250299000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:18:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. In all of the previous situations, both those that we halted (SARS, H5N1, MERS) and those that we didn't, there's a fog-of-war element to the entire process while it's happening. Estimates change as new data becomes available. Different research teams have valid disagreements.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":183,"likes_count":1782,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243255981464629249","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243254062948081700,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585249841000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:10:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. At the same time, we always imagined that if we ever did find ourselves in the position we are today, in free fall between the lip of the board and an impact of yet unknown violence, the world would be united in a struggle to save lives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":176,"likes_count":1773,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243254062948081670","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243253334108033000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585249668000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:07:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. Somehow it always seemed like we'd be able to pull back from the brink, because the alternative was unimaginable. \n\nAnd each time, that was right, thank goodness.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":113,"likes_count":1468,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243253334108033024","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243253141337829400,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585249622000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:07:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. We had some pretty scary moments (weeks or months, really) where we didn't know if we were on the cusp of the Big One. SARS. H5N1 clusters. H1N1 swine flu before we knew the case fatality rate. \n\nBut we never had the feeling that we had already stepped off the diving board.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":156,"likes_count":1640,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243253141337829377","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243252767482732500,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585249532000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:05:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. I spent the decade from 2000-2009 or so working with an amazing team of people around the world to develop the epidemiological modeling infrastructure to help us detect and forecast emerging infectious diseases in real time so as to stop them in their tracks if possible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":168,"likes_count":1693,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243252767482732544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243252341756670000,"conversation_id":"1243252341756669953","created_at":1585249431000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"19:03:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. This is going to be a personal thread about the experience of working at the intersection of infectious disease modeling and the study of misinformation during the worst pandemic in a century. \n\nIf you're just interested in what is happening with the virus, you can skip it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":356,"retweets_count":6204,"likes_count":13170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243252341756669953","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243248777583980500,"conversation_id":"1243243867891068928","created_at":1585248581000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"18:49:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We in the infectious disease epidemiology world spent decades preparing for a crisis like this, but were never imagining that we'd be fighting on two fronts, the virus on one and this sort of hyper-partisan disinformation on the other.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":177,"likes_count":461,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243248777583980544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243248456577077200,"conversation_id":"1243243867891068928","created_at":1585248505000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"18:48:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"You get a misleading thread from a twitter account with a modest number of followers, and because it sells a political story that some venues favor, it gets amplified without question by media outlets at the political extremes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243248456577077248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243248162220830700,"conversation_id":"1243243867891068928","created_at":1585248434000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"18:47:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Too soon to track the exact route of spread, but I think this is probably a good example of how #misinformation/#disinformation becomes explosive once the science of an epidemic becomes politicized.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":["#misinformation","#disinformation"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243248162220830720","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243235672858570800,"conversation_id":"1243235218514776064","created_at":1585245457000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"17:57:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Is this assuming successful suppression followed by measures to prevent an appreciable second wave? Seems to be a lot of context missing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243235672858570757","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243003995636895700,"conversation_id":"1243003987055366145","created_at":1585190221000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"02:37:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. My bigger concern is that even if the R=2.4 estimate is right for active days, I am dubious that we in the West can get anywhere near Wuhan's R=0.3 on lockdown days, especially if interspersed with active work days. And if we don't, the two-day work week allow epidemic growth.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243003995636895744","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243003994860998700,"conversation_id":"1243003987055366145","created_at":1585190220000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"02:37:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. But that paper also estimates a much larger value of =3.86 before lockdown. I think this is anomalously high compared to other studies, but it is concerning that the two-day work week scheme wouldn't work under the Wang et al. parameters that give us R=0.3 for lockdown.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243003994860998662","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243003990578585600,"conversation_id":"1243003987055366145","created_at":1585190219000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"02:36:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. The problem is, I don't think it will work.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243003990578585601","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243003988380766200,"conversation_id":"1243003987055366145","created_at":1585190219000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"02:36:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. They're not attacking epidemiologists or playing stupid games with data. Just the simplest underlying models needed to explore a straightforward proposal:\n\nLet's restart the economy with a 2-day work week, and stay at home the other 5 days of the week to reduce transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":84,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243003988380766208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242838326148616200,"conversation_id":"1242838326148616193","created_at":1585150722000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"15:38:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I've written several strongly critical threads about contrarian COVID pieces lately. \n\nI am amazed at how many people in my mentions are equating that with censorship.\n\nPublic criticism is not censorship. It's speech.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":90,"likes_count":819,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242838326148616193","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242813928104591400,"conversation_id":"1242623588647100417","created_at":1585144905000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"14:01:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Just read the Bendavid and Bhattacharya WSJ piece. I'll try to address it later today.\n\nSeriously, what is in the water at Stanford?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242813928104591360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242722120972419000,"conversation_id":"1242719809495695362","created_at":1585123016000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"07:56:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'd be astonished if I didn't have our own track record to look at.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242722120972419074","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242720760772190200,"conversation_id":"1242719809495695362","created_at":1585122692000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"07:51:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Not stressed in the story: CDC's testing criteria required in-person contact with a known case, or travel from China. \n\nThis scheme guarantees that community transmission will not be detected. \n\nIf you miss one US case, you have ruled out testing any downstream transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":132,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242720760772190208","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242698644186259500,"conversation_id":"1242601711463587840","created_at":1585117419000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"06:23:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Fascinating gender split in the comments here with women seeing how creepy this is and men saying “it’s just your temperature, no big deal...”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":101,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242698644186259456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242627251553726500,"conversation_id":"1242627251553726464","created_at":1585100398000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:39:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I find it fascinating, after the events of the past weekend, to see how many libertarians think that as state employee I should be restricted in my public speech.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":446,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242627251553726464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242618534946934800,"conversation_id":"1242611599405277184","created_at":1585098320000,"date":"2020-03-25","time":"01:05:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"What they ran that headline *right as* the government was trying to justify eliminating all health care programs, thereby providing further ammunition to that movement?\n\nThat's what a headline like this does when people are talking about prematurely lifting the shutdown.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":97,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242618534946934784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242494197740912600,"conversation_id":"1242493458842939397","created_at":1585068675000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"16:51:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The notion that anyone would waste their time trying to indoctrinate those power brokers of the modern economy, evolutionary biologists....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":229,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242494197740912642","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242327202068197400,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585028860000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:47:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"18. In short, it's possible that #COVID19 will mutate in various ways. Predicting these one-time events is extremely difficult. \n\nBut I'm not expecting evolution to grant us a reprieve—or to make everything much worse. \n\nMostly likely, what we see is what we get. \n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":76,"likes_count":469,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242327202068197376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242326181522763800,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585028617000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:43:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. And here's the thing. Unless the new more virulent strain has a huge transmission advantage, your chance of catching it instead of regular COVID *stays* at about 1 in 200,000 going forward into the future, because the new strain stays rare relative to the old one.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":196,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242326181522763777","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242325668316115000,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585028495000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:41:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. Sounds dreadful. But what are you chances of getting this more deadly strain if you catch #COVID19 tomorrow? \n\nAbout 1 in 200,000.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":164,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242325668316114944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242325312181952500,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585028410000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:40:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. But there's another really important reason. At present, a *very* conservative estimate would have 200,000 active cases (basically, all the known ones and no others). \n\nSuppose a new mutation arises today that changes the infection fatality rate from around 1% to around 10%.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242325312181952512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242324489322418200,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585028214000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:36:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. If any old thing could happen, then couldn't #COVID19 evolve to get worse—more virulent—as the pandemic progresses? \n\nSure, it *could*. I'm not tremendously worried about it. In part, we aren't seeing signatures of this kind of evolution thus far.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":201,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242324489322418177","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242322881599557600,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585027830000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:30:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. More generally, predicting virulence evolution is hard, especially for an emerging disease. When a new pathogen enters the human population, it is unlikely to be adapted to maximize transmission. It might be too virulent, or too mild.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":221,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242322881599557632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242319985856241700,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585027140000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:19:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. So we might expect a pathogen to evolve intermediate virulence. Paul Ewald has proposed this as a reason why we shouldn't worry too much about H5N1 bird flu. It may now kill over 60% of people infected, but if it takes off in humans shouldn't it evolve to become less lethal?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":186,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242319985856241664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242319221922484200,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026958000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:15:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. To transmit effectively, a pathogen generally needs to make a lot of copies of itself within the host. Doing this tends to cause harm to the host, either directly or as a byproduct of the host's immune response. \n\nOf course there are exceptions. Biology always has exceptions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":240,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242319221922484225","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242318913976676400,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026884000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:14:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. People used to take this reasoning to the conclusion that microbial pathogens should co-evolve with their hosts to cause minimal harm. The problem with that argument is that there tend to be *virulence-transmissibility tradeoffs*.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":230,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242318913976676353","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242318353303138300,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026751000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:12:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. Now let's consider virulence. \n\nOne argument has it that diseases should evolve not to kill their hosts too quickly, because a dead host doesn't transmit to other people. There are a lot of problems with this argument both in general and for #COVID19 in particular.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":221,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242318353303138304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242317641882034200,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026581000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:09:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. It's hard to predict for certain, but my personal opinion is that given the rates at which we seeing mutations in the virus and the structure of its genome, there is not strong reason to expect more transmissible variants to evolve and become widespread over the next year.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":51,"likes_count":286,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242317641882034177","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242317101529837600,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026452000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:07:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. If such variants arise, we would expect them to spread, because they would produce more new infections than the previous \"ancestral\" strains. \n\nWe certainly can't rule out the possibility of this happening, but I don't there is good evidence that it has happened yet.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":208,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242317101529837568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242316768405639200,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026373000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:06:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Let's start with transmissibility. Natural selection will favor variants of the virus that are more likely to transmit and initiate new infections. For example, a variant might reproduce better in the upper respiratory tract and thus be spread more in respiratory droplets.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":250,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242316768405639168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242316188866064400,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585026235000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"05:03:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. In principle, the virus could mutate in any number of ways, but two of the most important to think about involve \n\nVIRULENCE: the amount of harm the disease causes to its host, including mortality risk,\n\nand\n\nTRANSMISSIBILITY: the ease with which new infections are generated.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":50,"likes_count":311,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242316188866064385","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242314692514599000,"conversation_id":"1242314692514598912","created_at":1585025878000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"04:57:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1.  I suppose because I'm an evolutionary biology who has worked on emerging infectious diseases for 20 years, a number of people are asking me whether we should expect the #SARSCoV2 #coronavirus to mutate to become more dangerous—or more mild—as the pandemic progresses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":35,"retweets_count":742,"likes_count":1628,"hashtags":["#sarscov2","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242314692514598912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242298942114521000,"conversation_id":"1242293280290697216","created_at":1585022123000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"03:55:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. But it shows us the scale of what is being proposed when people talk about bringing the economy back online shortly.\n\nSince doing so comes at a human cost of a year's GDP, this sets the bar for any countervailing arguments about the advantages of \"taking it on the chin.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":87,"likes_count":369,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242298942114521088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242298136405536800,"conversation_id":"1242293280290697216","created_at":1585021931000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"03:52:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. Obviously this is just an order-of-magnitude estimate. It may also make people very uncomfortable for all sorts of good reasons. It doesn't account for the economic costs of a pandemic on one side, or the mortality costs of a depression on the other.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":184,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242298136405536768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242296865694990300,"conversation_id":"1242293280290697216","created_at":1585021628000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"03:47:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. So the cost of lives lost by letting the pandemic sweep through to avoid harming the economy is on the order of a year's gross production by the economy we are trying to protect for a year.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":115,"likes_count":305,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242296865694990336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242296643912790000,"conversation_id":"1242293280290697216","created_at":1585021575000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"03:46:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. So whatever on thinks of these estimates, at we have a ballmark cost of the lives lost. Yes, they may skew older and so this may be a bit of an overestimate. But we'll looking on the order of 20 trillion dollars US. \n\nThat's interesting number, because that's the US GDP.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":124,"likes_count":359,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242296643912790017","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242293280290697200,"conversation_id":"1242293280290697216","created_at":1585020773000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"03:32:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. Following a few Medium posts last week and Trump's remarks today, we have many pundits talking about how we need to be sure the cure isn't worse than the disease. \nBasically, the tradeoff is between the economic harm from a protracted shutdown, and  the lives lost without one.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":52,"retweets_count":262,"likes_count":640,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242293280290697216","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242273520811298800,"conversation_id":"1242273520811298816","created_at":1585016062000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"02:14:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I have a question for #epitwitter and #COVID19 experts. \n\nWhat is the best estimate of the increase in survival probability for a COVID19 patient who needs a ventilator and gets one, compared to a patient who needs one and doesn't get one?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":["#epitwitter","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242273520811298816","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242188192377229300,"conversation_id":"1242184583853965312","created_at":1584995718000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"20:35:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So consensus seems to be iPad pro and pencil. \n\nIsn't what I'd been thinking, but it makes sense to go that route now that I've read your responses. I'll go that route.\n\nThank you so much, everyone.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242188192377229312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242185149841682400,"conversation_id":"1242184583853965312","created_at":1584994993000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"20:23:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I guess I'm behind on the terminology. I don't mean tablet like an iPad, I mean an external Wacom-style device that I can set up beside my desktop workstation.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242185149841682434","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242184583853965300,"conversation_id":"1242184583853965312","created_at":1584994858000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"20:20:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Question for #AcademicTwitter. I'll be teaching online, starting next week. I would like to use a tablet or similar to write on the screen during class taught via zoom. I use Mac / OSX. Any recommendations for what to buy, how to do it, etc?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":["#academictwitter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1242184583853965312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241969418638262300,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584943558000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"06:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. I could go on, but Quake's analysis is inaccurate and disingenuous for the reasons I've laid out above. But moreover it's abhorrent. \n\nThe utilitarian calculus of 0.5M deaths is no big deal because cancer? Like saying war is no big deal because senescence. \n\nFuck that.\n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":639,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241969418638262272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241968093884104700,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584943242000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"06:00:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. If you overload the health care system like that, you can't just count the mortality among the additional incoming cases. You have to count mortality among ever heart attack or stroke or cancer patient who cannot receive adequate treatment because ICUs are full.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":48,"likes_count":334,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241968093884104704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241967781874004000,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584943168000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"05:59:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. There are interactions that Quake ignores. For better or for worse, the magic of the invisible hand (I am only partially here) matches health care demand to health care supply. Add millions of patients to the current demand? Breakdown.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":141,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241967781874003969","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241965393477951500,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584942599000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"05:49:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. Don't agree? \n\nHow much should the US have done if it could have won WWII without casualties?\n\nWe lost ~420,000 souls in that war. \n\nBut hey, cancer is worse, so who cares?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":250,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241965393477951488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241964535881203700,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584942394000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"05:46:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. I mean, #COVID19 #coronavirus is no worse than cancer, so why the hysteria? \n\nBecause IF WE KNEW WHAT WE COULD DO TO ELIMINATE  CANCER DEATHS, WE F'N WOULD IN A HEARTBEAT!\n\nI didn't do all those Komen rides for nothin' bro.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":58,"likes_count":544,"hashtags":["#covid19","#coronavirus"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241964535881203712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241963544641294300,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584942158000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"05:42:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. Foolishly, I thought that the War on Cancer was a legitimate enterprise, albeit far more difficult than we initially thought. \n\nI mourned the losses of my friends and family to cancer, instead of realizing that they were among the extremely unlucky minority of 0.5M/year.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":273,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241963544641294337","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241962454948569000,"conversation_id":"1241957055667167232","created_at":1584941898000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"05:38:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. That knocks us down to 600,000 deaths. Rounded down to 500,000. OK. \n\nNow that is still ABSOLUTELY unacceptable to me, even though I think it's a two to four-fold underestimate at best. But I'm not a galaxy brain thinker that can put this in *context*. \n\nFortunately, Quake is.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":229,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241962454948569088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241876487445155800,"conversation_id":"1241873645439340544","created_at":1584921402000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"23:56:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. And even if we don't care an iota about the incarcerated? We cannot hope to eliminate #COVID19 in the USA if we have a reservoir of 2.3 million people where the disease flows unchecked. It's time to address the prison issue head-on if we want to overcome this pandemic. \n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1241876487445155840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
