{"id":1249491368507932700,"conversation_id":"1249480343968575488","created_at":1586736931000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"00:15:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"OK, so my mentions are full of people telling me that I'm wrong because the exponential growth rate of an epidemic is the same as the growth rate of an epidemic divided by any constant. \n\nThat's true. But that's not what this graph shows, because it's on a linear scale.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":416,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249491368507932672","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249181722736046000,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586663106000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"03:45:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"....there's nothing special about today being today and the point from which everything goes forward. The most recent time points are not privileged as the current \"starting point\" the way they would be in many time series projections.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249181722736046080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249181462282338300,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586663043000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"03:44:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"And for those of us not used to this type of approach, I think that would help make other things clear. I've been surprised at how little the forward projections shift after an unexpected daily result. But recalling that it's a curve fit makes that clearer...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249181462282338305","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249181225274704000,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586662987000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"03:43:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"There is a basic dataviz issue here. Simply illustrating the \"backward uncertainty\" by showing the boundaries back into time, probably unshaded, would go a long way toward clarifying what is happening here.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249181225274703874","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249179575151722500,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586662594000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"03:36:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"When the model was first released, this didn't look so weird because we were well away from the inflection point and uncertainty of the fit was initially growing, just like a normal cone of uncertainty. Today, by contrast, near the predicted peak, it looks the strangest.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249179575151722496","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249176358720278500,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586661827000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"03:23:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"OK, I think I understand now and it was kind of a naive question on my part. I keep thinking of this as some sort of forward predictive model but it's not. It's a curve-fit. When you fit an error function to a sigmoid curve, you're going to have the most error through the middle.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249176358720278529","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249137835174776800,"conversation_id":"1249135767613554690","created_at":1586652642000,"date":"2020-04-12","time":"00:50:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Another way to look at it.\n\nNormally when you predict things, uncertainty increases into the future. Now, when you know the final state with certainty, it will turn around at some point. Uncertainty very rarely decreases monotonically into the future. Yet it does here.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":30,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":224,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249137835174776833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249121775943811000,"conversation_id":"1249120108565483520","created_at":1586648813000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"23:46:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Maybe *cases* are plateauing? Hospital admissions are in some places. I sure hope so. \n\nDeaths don't seem to be plateauing yet but perhaps in a week or two they will be?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":38,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":98,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249121775943811073","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248809867281752000,"conversation_id":"1248802766484455424","created_at":1586574448000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"03:07:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be fair there is absolutely nothing wrong with having a discussion about the use and abuse of modeling. \n\nIt was the bit about the scientific method that got me. What part science does the good senator think is model-independent?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":268,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248809867281752065","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248787105909629000,"conversation_id":"1248758002426892288","created_at":1586569022000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"01:37:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"tl;dr — I think it would be great to get baseball going in 6-8 weeks, provided it can be done without taking tests away from other people who need them. If it can't, don't do it. But I think it can.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248787105909628928","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248781757945528300,"conversation_id":"1248758002426892288","created_at":1586567746000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"01:15:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"First, note that you can screen every player every day without using a test on every player every day. Because positives will be rare inside a firedome, batch testing is fine. Combine samples (e.g. all players on one team) and test that. If positive, test individually.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248781757945528321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248781392894255000,"conversation_id":"1248758002426892288","created_at":1586567659000,"date":"2020-04-11","time":"01:14:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Obviously I could be wrong in my expectations, but I still think it IS a potential solution, because I think if we invest now we can be testing at least ten million of Americans *per day* within a couple of months. Anyone with symptoms, plus frequent screening for frontline folk.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248781392894255104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248759517837316000,"conversation_id":"1248758002426892288","created_at":1586562444000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"23:47:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"For me it all comes down to testing. Can you test every player every day? Seems feasible, actually. What does the transmissibility curve compare to the detectability over the course of infection? This is critical and could even obviate the need for a strong firedome.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248759517837316096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248608805421633500,"conversation_id":"1248608174866743299","created_at":1586526511000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"13:48:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Most are posting divisive right-wing content, a few are posting divisive left-wing content. I wonder if someone has new technology to get phone-verification at scale and improve the visibility of their troll army.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248608805421633536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248608174866743300,"conversation_id":"1248608174866743299","created_at":1586526361000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"13:46:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Here’s something interesting about suspected bot activity on Twitter. I have my mentions set to require a verified phone number and verified email. This is always been an effective troll filter. But today there are an insane number of zero-follower accounts in my mentions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":199,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248608174866743299","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248605457138069500,"conversation_id":"1248604261119750145","created_at":1586525713000,"date":"2020-04-10","time":"13:35:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"When I first thought about this a few weeks ago I thought it was cruelly satirical. \n\nNow I honestly don’t believe it’s hyperbole anymore.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248605457138069504","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248164866445029400,"conversation_id":"1248159435345686528","created_at":1586420668000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"08:24:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Love this.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248164866445029377","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248151680765444000,"conversation_id":"1248151140274802689","created_at":1586417524000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"07:32:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Vice: China's Been Flooding Facebook With Shady Ads Blaming Trump for the Coronavirus Crisis\n\nAd:  \"questions whether the virus originated in China\"\n\nVerdict: Ok, that part is bullshit.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248151680765444096","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248151331837104000,"conversation_id":"1248151140274802689","created_at":1586417441000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"07:30:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Vice: China's Been Flooding Facebook With Shady Ads Blaming Trump for the Coronavirus Crisis\n\nAd:  \"suggested that the Trump administration’s mishandling of the outbreak in the U.S. could make the problem there much worse.\"\n\nVerdict: No shit.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248151331837104128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248098035785019400,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586404734000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:58:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I could go on, but in fairness to the authors I'm putting these out there as potential pitfalls rather than certain mistakes. \n\nSomeone else is going to do the heavy lifting on this one.\n\n(Probably a woman, given the way academia seems to work. It's OK; I'll get the credit. /s)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248098035785019393","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248097728250278000,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586404661000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:57:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"If you look at un-promoted or those who are denied promotion, you could pick this up. Unpromoted men have a *lower* mean that unpromoted women in this diagram. \n\nAgain, not saying this has happened in the data. Just saying that a higher mean does not imply a higher bar.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248097728250277888","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248096327994507300,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586404327000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:52:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Yes, absolutely! Otherwise you can't conclude that a higher mean for males implies a higher bar for males. Do the authors address this? \n\nI'm not saying that this particular problem occurs in these data, but here is the sort of thing that can go wrong.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248096327994507265","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248095522033791000,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586404135000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:48:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. \"The results show that at this point, and regardless of other potential differences in age, funding, number of children etc., female professors had, on average, lower levels of scholarly achievement than male professors. \"\n\nNo, they had fewer papers and citations.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":143,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248095522033790976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248095138879946800,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586404044000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:47:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. Citation rates vary hugely among fields and even subfields within fields. Women may be overrepresented in fields or subfields with lower citation rates. We've seen this sort of thing in previous analyses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248095138879946752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248094137376637000,"conversation_id":"1248093692327411714","created_at":1586403805000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"03:43:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"While I don't have the time to spend on this, there are so many things that could conceivably be wrong with this. \n\n1. For starters, we know men self-cite ~60% more than women do. That helps substantially right there.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":118,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1248094137376636929","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247990847494217700,"conversation_id":"1247988712362749952","created_at":1586379179000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"20:52:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"What these graphs suggest is that the social distancing measures in place have helped a lot, and the general pattern is consistent with them even helping enough that they'll eventually bring the epidemic under control (absent outside introductions, which may become a problem.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":118,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247990847494217728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247988712362750000,"conversation_id":"1247988712362749952","created_at":1586378670000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"20:44:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I've posted a lot about my concerns that we may not be doing enough to suppress the pandemic yet. There is still plenty of cause for concern, especially in states with only partial lockdowns in place. \n\nBut there may also be cause for cautious optimism as well.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":290,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247988712362749952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247802639095488500,"conversation_id":"1247750073796030466","created_at":1586334306000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"08:25:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Well the rate of geometric increase is slowing but the rate of increase is increasing. It's basically just increasing as x^2.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247802639095488513","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247752719055507500,"conversation_id":"1247750073796030466","created_at":1586322405000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"05:06:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. Just in case you don't believe me that these are really the same functions, you can plot them yourselves. The first is f(x)=7x + 400 / (1+e^-(x/3-5) and the second is f(x)=3+0.6x^2.\n\nSilly functions, but they illustrate the purpose.\n\nBe careful out there! Graphs are wild.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247752719055507456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247750428013412400,"conversation_id":"1247750073796030466","created_at":1586321858000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"04:57:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. It sure looks like they both are flattening the curve, and one feels optimistic looking at both trajectories. \n\nBut this not correct, because concavity on a semi-plot does not imply concavity on a linear plot. \n\n(Don't worry if that doesn't make sense. Just read on.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247750428013412352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247725172007645200,"conversation_id":"1247722505940242432","created_at":1586315837000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"03:17:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Now take another moment to think back to where, on January 1, you thought you'd be today and what you thought you'd be doing. \n\nWhat would your life have been like? What would you have been tweeting about?\n\nAnd share it here with the hashtag #WithoutCovidIWouldBe","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":133,"hashtags":["#withoutcovidiwouldbe"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247725172007645185","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247722505940242400,"conversation_id":"1247722505940242432","created_at":1586315201000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"03:06:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We humans are an adaptable lot. Our reality today was unimaginable a few weeks ago, and our lives a few weeks ago feel unimaginable today. \n\nTake a moment to think about how much life has changed and how much you've given up. \n\nCongratulate yourself that you are still standing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":236,"likes_count":1079,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247722505940242432","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247657224463237000,"conversation_id":"1247645708741566465","created_at":1586299637000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"22:47:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. This highlights the importance of understanding a model's purpose, how it is constructed, and how it performs. It also shows the risk of relying on point estimates. (One virtue of the IHME model is that it gives ranges too for other stats.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":65,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247657224463237121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247656717053128700,"conversation_id":"1247645708741566465","created_at":1586299516000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"22:45:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. You'll see that basically nothing changes. We get one more day of data, and the uncertainty ranges do not change much going forward. \n\nBut the estimate of the timing of the peak leaps backward by 10 days—in what almost certainly is the wrong direction.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247656717053128704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247651800909414400,"conversation_id":"1247645708741566465","created_at":1586298344000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"22:25:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. Remember that daily deaths is a lagging indicator: we expect deaths to peak substantially *after* positive tests do, because of the long period (very approximately, two weeks) between symptoms and death.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247651800909414400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247556176876679200,"conversation_id":"1247535255826776065","created_at":1586275545000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"16:05:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"About that “failed H1N1 swine flu debacle where 17,000 people died”: we’ve only had one year since the swine flu of 2009-2010 when US flu mortality was lower than 17,000.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":64,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247556176876679171","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247379765809434600,"conversation_id":"1247288107109511168","created_at":1586233486000,"date":"2020-04-07","time":"04:24:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"One thing I don't think anyone has mentioned yet is that each patient sequentially coughs five times in each of the four treatments—and these are done in the same order for every patient. \n\nThe entire study is confounded by trial order.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":133,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247379765809434624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247006403920679000,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586144469000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"03:41:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"iii. So we could jitter along the ridgeline, about to topple in one direction, then the other, before behavioral shifts correct course to keep us on the ridge. It's not clear to me whether the divergent dynamics of epidemics will outweigh the homeostatic effect of human behavior.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":297,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247006403920678912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247005758056620000,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586144315000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"03:38:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"ii. That will drop R0 back toward 1. \n\nWhen the epidemic starts to wane because we've successfully reduced R0 below 1, people will be more inclined to loosen up on social distancing, raising R0 again toward 1.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":211,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247005758056620032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247005493920333800,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586144252000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"03:37:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"i. Addendum: there may be one factor that tends to keep the ball on the ridge, so to speak, and move us toward middle-ground outcomes: human behavior.\n\nWhen the epidemic starts to get out of control, public health authorities and individuals alike take more extreme measures.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":222,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1247005493920333825","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246970930980475000,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586136012000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:20:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. It's perfectly reasonable to model just one timeline, just one side of the ridge, and try to understand what the world would look like if we end up there. \n\nBut when making policy recommendations, one has to take the scope and intent of the model into account.\n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":318,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246970930980474880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246970655284682800,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586135946000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:19:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. This can be valuable to keep in mind when looking at uncertainty ranges for models. \n\nDo the uncertainty ranges include both sides of the ridgeline? If not, why not? What assumptions are being made?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":190,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246970655284682754","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246970421385105400,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586135890000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:18:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. I think this is why we tend to see models at two extremes and not a lot of intermediate middle-case results. \n\nIt's also why I am comfortable in talking, loosely, about a best-case and a worst-case timeline. Epidemics tend to pull into one of those two attractors.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":300,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246970421385105413","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246970007071817700,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586135791000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:16:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. What we see from this diagram is that for the majority of R0 values, we end up a best case scenario with below 5% of the population infected, or in a worst case scenario with over 50% infected.\n\nTo get in between that, you need to roll the ball all the way down the ridgeline.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":235,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246970007071817728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246969677416296400,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586135713000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:15:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. (Note that this is *not* a time course. The x axis is R0 and the y axis shows the fraction infected at the end of the first wave).\n\nIn this diagram, 1% of the population is infected at time zero, and other parameters are in the right ballpark for #COVID19.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":182,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246969677416296449","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246968335817781200,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586135393000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"01:09:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. Epidemics work a bit like that. Either you manage to suppress the epidemic and end up on one side of the ridge, or you lose control of it and end up on the other. There is some middle ground, but not much.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":143,"likes_count":770,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246968335817781248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246963861644664800,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586134326000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"00:52:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. So we've got best-case models that predict on the order of 100,000 US deaths and worst-case models that predict on the order of 1,000,000 US deaths. \n\nWhere are the middle case models? Why aren't we seeing those?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":400,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246963861644664833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246962926021312500,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586134103000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"00:48:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. On the other side of the spectrum we've got models like the Imperial College 3/16 model, that explores a scenario where we fail to suppress the pandemic and the first wave sweeps through a majority of the population. These have enormous death tolls.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":278,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246962926021312512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246957709682806800,"conversation_id":"1246957709682806785","created_at":1586132859000,"date":"2020-04-06","time":"00:27:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. A short thread about best and worst case models of coronavirus.\n\nI've talked about how the @UW_IHME model strikes me as a best case model (at least given current data inputs) and its confidence ranges represent uncertainty around that best case, not best-to-worst cases.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":56,"retweets_count":791,"likes_count":1866,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246957709682806785","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246698825613340700,"conversation_id":"1246698024417382401","created_at":1586071137000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"07:18:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. A question: we have a good idea of likely zoonotic viruses: coronaviruses, flus such as H5N1, etc.\n\nCould we design methods to screen big cities monthly for appreciable volume of unknown viruses in these classes, as an early-warning system for zoonoses?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":127,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246698825613340679","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246698410733756400,"conversation_id":"1246698024417382401","created_at":1586071038000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"07:17:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. This could be particularly useful if we can suppress the epidemic and return to a containment phase as we await vaccine development.\n\nOr imagine that we'd had this in place in the US in February.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246698410733756417","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246650298942124000,"conversation_id":"1246649899136856065","created_at":1586059567000,"date":"2020-04-05","time":"04:06:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Non-*profit*.\n\nHIGH-profile.\n\nUGH.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246650298942124032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246541919590576000,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1586033727000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"20:55:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. Lots of replies suggesting that an improperly fitted \nN95 may be good enough for a grocery store run. This seems entirely plausible to me. \n\nIf it gives you even a 50% reduction in risk that could help a lot to keep you safe, and reduce R0—even if far from perfect.\n\nAny data?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246541919590576128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246243460731961300,"conversation_id":"1246243024327208960","created_at":1585962569000,"date":"2020-04-04","time":"01:09:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I am not in a position to evaluate but wanted to bring this to the attention of those who are.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246243460731961344","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246179529422323700,"conversation_id":"1246178374554271744","created_at":1585947327000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"20:55:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We have many sources of evidence from which to estimate asymptomatic infection rate. The studies above, Diamond Princess, etc. These indicate relatively low asymptomatic rates. (Of course there may be many uncounted *symptomatic* infections. Also worth having a better handle on.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246179529422323712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246110924575932400,"conversation_id":"1246109147084369922","created_at":1585930970000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"16:22:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"[spoiler]\n\n\"I am now self-isolating inside. \n\nBecause I fly into other people's homes in our village. \n\n(I brought an 'ALT' key home once...)\n\n(...and I was in trouble for that.)\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246110924575932418","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246020587945726000,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1585909432000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"10:23:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. Messaging should stress the pro-social (as opposed to self-protective nature) of mask wearing, given the risk of pre-symptomatic transmission. I'd imagine we would reach a tipping point where the stigma rapidly reverses from being against those wearing to those not wearing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":119,"likes_count":586,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246020587945725953","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246019837240832000,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1585909253000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"10:20:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. People are of course primed to attend to such messaging right now, so the uptake should be rapid.\n\nWe simply need to stress that we wear masks in public because we are each doing our part to #crushthecurve, not because we are sick. (If we were sick, we'd be isolating at home.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":372,"hashtags":["#crushthecurve"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246019837240832006","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246019483203854300,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1585909169000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"10:19:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. One thing I've observed in the US is that people feel there is stigma about wearing a mask because it indicates you are sick. \n\nThis is something we should be able to rapid reverse with adequate public health messaging, especially at this point in time.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":21,"retweets_count":76,"likes_count":484,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246019483203854336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246017679095238700,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1585908739000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"10:12:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. My feeling is that given what we know now, we should recommend that people wear masks to reduce transmission when out in public. Of course this is not a substitute for staying home as much as possible, nor for keeping a 2m distance from others when out. But it could help.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":95,"likes_count":472,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246017679095238657","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246013181551493000,"conversation_id":"1246013181551493120","created_at":1585907666000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"09:54:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. So much of the mistrust swirling around mask recommendations from WHO and other authorities seems to have arisen out of confusion between receiver protection (your mask protects you from others) and source control (your mask protects others from you).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":68,"retweets_count":733,"likes_count":1545,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246013181551493120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245992742452260900,"conversation_id":"1245904397718024192","created_at":1585902793000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"08:33:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Thank you to you, your husband, and to Tony. Tony's the real deal, as I am sure your husband is as well.\n\nGratitude!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245992742452260864","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245991778886365200,"conversation_id":"1245904397718024192","created_at":1585902564000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"08:29:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Because this is the internet, I guess I need to add that the above is satire. I directly lifted the text about Fauci and substituted something I didn't think anyone could possibly believe that Fred Ryan actually said.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245991778886365186","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245988850020704300,"conversation_id":"1245904397718024192","created_at":1585901865000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"08:17:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Love this.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245988850020704258","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245885096818659300,"conversation_id":"1245885096818659331","created_at":1585877129000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"01:25:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm astonished that people think doctors, biomedical researchers, and public health professionals—who have devoted their lives to helping people—are lying about #hydrochloroquine treatment for #COVID19 just to hurt Trump, rather than expressing justified skepticism based on data.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":120,"retweets_count":423,"likes_count":2024,"hashtags":["#hydrochloroquine","#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245885096818659331","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245751828714668000,"conversation_id":"1245749260722683907","created_at":1585845355000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"16:35:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"For everyone in my mentions saying these are Italy's data: I'm talking about the curve fit line in blue and asking how you would get a curve like that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245751828714668032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245749955559489500,"conversation_id":"1245749260722683907","created_at":1585844908000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"16:28:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"From the White House briefing. No idea what that blue line is.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245749955559489537","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245629000547852300,"conversation_id":"1245625303130443778","created_at":1585816071000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"08:27:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We must find a way to do this irrespective of whether those contributions leave a traditional paper trail.\n\nI'd recommend a narrative-based approach to assessing activity during this period, recognizing that each of us has different leverage points to maximize our contributions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245629000547852289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245628179072475100,"conversation_id":"1245625303130443778","created_at":1585815875000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"08:24:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So many of my junior colleagues at the graduate, postdoctoral, and pre-tenure stages of their careers are doing the same thing I am, fearlessly. \n\nAs we hire and confer tenure in the coming years, we need to recognize every manner of creative contribution these people have made.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":137,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245628179072475137","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245625953608319000,"conversation_id":"1245625303130443778","created_at":1585815344000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"08:15:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm doing some modeling. But most of my time goes to talking with others about their work, scientific communication around public health, writing rapid post-publication peer reviews on twitter, connecting people, and working to policymakers to understand the scientific landscape.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245625953608318983","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245618003711946800,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585813449000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"07:44:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"33. I hope to get a clearer picture when the team releases a full specification of their model. That hasn't happened yet—yet without such, it is impossible for outside researchers to interpret all that's going on. We're left w/ the uncomfortable feeling of being told \"trust us.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245618003711946753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245616561957662700,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585813105000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"07:38:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"32. To summarize, I have a more nuanced picture of their model, but my concerns about it giving an optimistic forecast have not changed. Yes it will get better over time. But we don't have time to waste. We need to plan for the worst case scenario now—and this does not show that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245616561957662721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245573884809625600,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585802930000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"04:48:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"31. This is perhaps a more accurate way of explaining what I mean when I say that this is a \"best case scenario\" model. It's not because they explicitly model certain best case R0s or anything like that, it's because of the choice of something akin to a \"prior\" from Wuhan.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245573884809625600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245572989782855700,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585802717000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"04:45:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"30. My understanding is that if they used a different prior, some or all probability would go to the event that the epidemic gets out of control and infects say 30%-70% of the US population before herd immunity brings it to a halt.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245572989782855690","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245572196090540000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585802527000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"04:42:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"28. That said, the model is doing something akin to using the Wuhan data to set a prior on what happens once lockdown occurs. \n\nMy view is that this prior makes the model optimistic, and pulls all of the probability on the event that the epidemic is successfully suppressed.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245572196090540034","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245571895291863000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585802456000,"date":"2020-04-02","time":"04:40:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"27. Good conversation with members of the IHME team tonight. They don't see the model as a model of a \"best case scenario\" in the way that I describe, because there's no obvious way to set it up to model a \"worst case scenario\" where the virus goes through to herd immunity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245571895291863041","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245146941769433000,"conversation_id":"1245146940372733952","created_at":1585701139000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"00:32:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. When those in charge keep things from the public, it erodes trust. When different branches of government provide radically different messages, it erodes trust. When individuals or agencies flip-flip frequently, it erodes trust.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":195,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245146941769433089","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245146941094125600,"conversation_id":"1245146940372733952","created_at":1585701139000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"00:32:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. We need people to follow the NPI advisories that health authorities give, and even more critically these authorities need the political capital to be enact orders that require people to make sacrifices.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":130,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245146941094125568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245146940372734000,"conversation_id":"1245146940372733952","created_at":1585701138000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"00:32:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. Why do I advocate strong transparency during pandemic?\n\nWhen we lack effective pharmaceuticals, one of the most critical resources is the reservoir of public trust we will have to draw on to institute non-pharmaceutical (NPI) interventions (school closures, stay-home, etc).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":194,"likes_count":573,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1245146940372733952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244841723617935400,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585628369000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"04:19:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"iv. It's very important to model both scenarios. No complaints there. \n\nI hope and pray we end up on the IHME storyline. \n\nI just want to make sure that we are prepared for the dreadful possibility that don't.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":281,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244841723617935360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244841258117296000,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585628258000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"04:17:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"iii. In the first Imperial College model, we're on the bad timeline. At best, social distancing helps slow the pandemic, but doesn't halt it. Over a million Americans die.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244841258117296129","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244840915513954300,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585628176000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"04:16:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"ii. In the IHME model, we're on the good timeline. Social distancing works. The pandemic is brought under control with ~3% of the US infected. Deaths are still high—five to low six figures. But it could have been a lot, lot worse.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244840915513954304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244840668960182300,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585628118000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"04:15:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"i. Addendum: One way to think about the IHME model versus e.g. the initial Imperial College model is that they represent very different two very different storylines for how things unfold in coming weeks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":137,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244840668960182273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244819202256457700,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585623000000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"02:50:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. If I am correct, this is an absolutely critical message to get right. Government leaders and public health authorities cannot afford to plan for nothing worse than the upper bound of the best case, if the worst case is still a realistic possiblity—and sadly I believe it to be.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":100,"likes_count":428,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244819202256457729","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244819199953797000,"conversation_id":"1244815009303023616","created_at":1585622999000,"date":"2020-03-31","time":"02:49:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. My grave concern is that this distinction has is not being made in the news reports about the model, and that it is lost on or ignored by politicians eager to for a more optimistic forecast than Imperial College provided.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":312,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244819199953797121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244618482932535300,"conversation_id":"1244612069732671489","created_at":1585575144000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"13:32:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, the most effective curve for making that claim will be the log of new cases curve, not the log of deaths curve shown above. That’s what I’m predicting we will be shown.  The latter would start to bend too if we get to the point that we are not testing all deaths.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":135,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244618482932535297","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244613925997400000,"conversation_id":"1244612069732671489","created_at":1585574058000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"13:14:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Along this trajectory, right now we are about 10 days away from having more new cases per day than tests run per day. \n\nPrediction: Within a week we will be told that this means the epidemic is coming under control and that we are winning.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":185,"likes_count":462,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244613925997400066","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244425313896915000,"conversation_id":"1244423597113802753","created_at":1585529089000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"00:44:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"For beer nerds, Floodlands is what Hill Farmstead could grow up to become, and makes Westy look like Miller where availability is concerned.\n\nThese are brewed in tiny batches and distributed to a tinier inner circle. A code of decorum prevents a resale market at any price.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244425313896914944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244423926991614000,"conversation_id":"1244423597113802753","created_at":1585528759000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"00:39:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"But I have so blown away by the generosity and kindness and thoughtfulness of so many people, in reaching out with words of care and concern and appreciation. And in touching my quarantined life with their unbelievably generous gifts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":348,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244423926991613952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244423597113802800,"conversation_id":"1244423597113802753","created_at":1585528680000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"00:38:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The COVID-19 pandemic has been a blur of long days. It's scary much of the time, and really scary the rest of the time. We see the worst of humanity coming out in the political polarization of even basic facts about what should be a common enemy. I'm tired and I miss my friends.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":64,"retweets_count":156,"likes_count":1611,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244423597113802753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244143704987730000,"conversation_id":"1244116481123577857","created_at":1585461948000,"date":"2020-03-29","time":"06:05:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Many are asking why I care given that the order lacks legal force and travel restrictions may help. I'm upset b/c it breaks my heart to see the crown jewel of US public health research & practice reduced to a cheap mouthpiece for a bloviating White House to use in petty disputes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":116,"likes_count":478,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244143704987729921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244031623038783500,"conversation_id":"1244031623038783488","created_at":1585435226000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"22:40:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"[politics]\n\nDismal prediction: We'll see increasing rhetoric out of the White House that seeks to divide the states by promoting quarantines + movement restrictions, and directing blame to current outbreak centers.\n\nGovernors are too strong when united in their frustration.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":32,"retweets_count":134,"likes_count":618,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1244031623038783488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243987291426549800,"conversation_id":"1243986767092387845","created_at":1585424657000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"19:44:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"What's not clear from the context of my own quote is that I was not referring to all Trump supporters, but rather to a subset. \n\nMore accurate: \"There seems to be a concerted effort on the part of SOME trump supporters to spread misinformation about the virus aggressively.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243987291426549760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243856853554974700,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585393558000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"11:05:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"500,000 deaths is what happens if you do nothing.\n\n20,000 deaths is what happens if you do everything right: social distancing, contact tracing, etc. \n\nTwo totally different scenarios.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243856853554974720","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243843710300741600,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585390424000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"10:13:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Addendum: I appreciate all of the comments and questions that have already come in while I've been drafting this thread. It's after 3 AM here in Seattle and I need to sleep. I'll try to get back to them tomorrow, but I apologize now to anyone who I am unable to directly answer.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":267,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243843710300741635","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243843084766466000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585390275000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"10:11:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"25. In the meantime, I think it's VITAL that the authors stress that these are forecast based on extremely optimistic assumptions and that the upper confidence intervals shown in the data graphics should be not be interpreted as worst-case scenarios for planning purposes.\n\n/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":390,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243843084766466049","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243842348284399600,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585390099000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"10:08:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"24. On a positive note,  the authors intend this as a framework to use in an ongoing fashion as the epidemic progresses, and will be providing updates. \n\nI believe it will become more informative as time passes—or if it fails to do so, we will learn something by figuring out why.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":200,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243842348284399616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243841441303892000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585389883000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"10:04:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"23. I'm not trying to blame the authors for the ways their work could be misrepresented by bad actors. Any model can be misrepresented. \n\nI *do* strongly advocate extensive and aggressive steps by modelers to mitigate this kind of misuse. I don't see those here—and I wish I did.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":336,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243841441303891968","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243840802305925000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585389731000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"10:02:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"22. I've already seen claims that this study proves we need fewer than 40,000 ventilators. \n\nTrue, I guess, IF the curve fitting approach works and IF the death count data are right and IF we attain Wuhan-scale lockdown and IF we maintain it and IF there's no second wave.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":377,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243840802305925121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243839590907052000,"conversation_id":"1243819232950751233","created_at":1585389442000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"09:57:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"21. I fear this will lead to trouble. Even a well-meaning and well-trained user of the forecast website below could easily be confused on this point. \n\nA politically motivated operative can always lie, as we saw with the Imperial College report. But this makes it job even easier.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":252,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1243839590907052032","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
