{"id":1266555326024659000,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805295000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. A few observations. One big issue, of course, is whether the seroprevalence estimate accurately reflects the situation in Brooklyn. \n\nMy feeling is that there are a few possible sources of selection bias in the sample.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555326024658944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266242781908889600,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590730779000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"05:39:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Destroying the country's scientific institutions because the facts don't fall the way you them to—that's like gouging out your eyes to avoid seeing bad news. It works momentarily, but the bad news doesn't disappear, and now you no longer have the advantage of sight in responding.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":204,"likes_count":697,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266242781908889600","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266240870161907700,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590730323000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"05:32:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"There is no legitimate actor in this country who benefits from this in the medium or long term. Whatever your policy objectives, they are advanced by access to good information and hampered by inability to obtain it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":298,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266240870161907713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266235437699326000,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590729028000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"05:10:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, I'm not saying that because I take pleasure in dunking on the CDC. It's terrible.\n\nI mention it because the White House has squandered the immeasurable power conferred when our institutions are considered the world authorities in science and medicine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":323,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266235437699325954","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266230400038232000,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590727827000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"04:50:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Being ignored by a short-sighted, cynical, and opportunistic executive branch is one thing. But once the CDC begins to capitulate to political pressure by self-censoring the work of the own excellent scientists and health professionals, so much more is lost.\n\nIt's painful to see.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":82,"likes_count":360,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266230400038232065","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266229324018901000,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590727570000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"04:46:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We need the CDC to provide its public health guidance as an impartial and scientifically excellent institution. \n\nIf the White House then wants to avoid strong action based on CDC's advice, so be it. \n\nThe institution would remain a national and even worldwide treasure.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":65,"likes_count":359,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266229324018900993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266227048793559000,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590727028000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"04:37:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm angry at the White House for continuing past the 100,000 death mark to treat this pandemic as a public relations crisis instead of a public health crisis.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":134,"likes_count":659,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266227048793559041","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266226653459411000,"conversation_id":"1266225733384323072","created_at":1590726934000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"04:35:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm hurt, and I'm angry.\n\nHurt for the excellent scientists and health practitioners at the CDC who are seeing their advice uncut by political machination. \n\nAngry for our country as one of our leading lights is tamped out for political gain — at the cost of thousands of lives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":155,"likes_count":776,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266226653459410944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266094755449958400,"conversation_id":"1266094023321587712","created_at":1590695487000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"19:51:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Also, it strikes me as questionable judgment that YouTube has removed several of their videos.  I'm not convinced that  taking down this sort of thing is constructive. In general, I think I'd rather have this stuff published and available for people to speak out against.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":43,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266094755449958401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265906760159686700,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590650665000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:24:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. Even worse were those who stood up and claimed on the basis of this testing policy that there was no evidence of community spread in the US.\n\nIt's true—but it's like saying, based looking at a light source, I have no evidence of UV emissions. \n\nNo shit. I can't see in the UV.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":276,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265906760159686656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265902664551821300,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590649689000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:08:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. I won't venture to speculate about which way Hanlon's razor would slice in this particular case. But given the importance of detecting community spread and the impossibility of doing so under the CDC's testing rules, this was a huge and easily avoidable mistake.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":203,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265902664551821313","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265902663780073500,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590649689000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:08:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. This is an extreme case of selection bias. When your sampling criteria exclude any possible cases of background community spread, there is no chance of observing such spread, even if it is occurring broadly. \n\nThat's exactly what happened. It was occurring, and we missed it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":271,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265902663780073472","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265902663067029500,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590649688000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:08:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. Given these rules for testing, there was *no way* of detecting background community spread.\n\nOnly travelers from China (who do not constitute community spread) and contacts of cases (not background community spread) were eligible for testing in the first place.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":264,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265902663067029505","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265902662291091500,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590649688000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:08:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. But in February, the CDC's testing policy required that to even be tested, a suspected US case must have either traveled from Wuhan (later: other areas of China as well) or have been in contact with a positively diagnosed case. \n\nThink about this for a moment.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":46,"likes_count":234,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265902662291091457","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265902661523501000,"conversation_id":"1265902659208220672","created_at":1590649688000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"07:08:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. One of the White House talking points during February was that there was no background community spread of #COVID19 in the United States. \n\nHow did we know this? One might hope that COVID testing would pick up any such cases — or at least detect clusters should they emerge.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265902661523501056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265839286500253700,"conversation_id":"1265835825205407744","created_at":1590634578000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"02:56:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Or I suppose there is a third possibility. Perhaps Senator Cotton welcomes the collateral damage: the further dismantling of US science and the US's global technological advantage.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265839286500253696","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265838197528907800,"conversation_id":"1265835825205407744","created_at":1590634319000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"02:51:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"This proposed legislation is shockingly disproportional to the harm it purport to redress. \n\nIt would, almost without exception, \"prohibit Chinese nationals from receiving visas to the United States for graduate or post-graduate studies in STEM fields.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265838197528907776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265836270753702000,"conversation_id":"1265835825205407744","created_at":1590633859000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"02:44:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The legislation he is proposing would do untold harm to science in the United States, and would also dismantle a growing network of international scientific collaboration that transcends internal politics and thereby acts as a stabilizing force worldwide.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":49,"likes_count":226,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265836270753701888","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265760508021366800,"conversation_id":"1265749463454199809","created_at":1590615796000,"date":"2020-05-27","time":"21:43:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"NB: Some question about whether the assumption stated above, of transmission by submicron aerosols, is reasonable.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265760508021366784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265104132395856000,"conversation_id":"1265102509162377216","created_at":1590459304000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"02:15:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. Based on sequence data from the original WA outbreak, there was every reason to believe that the outbreak strains were direct descendants of the Jan 15th case. Unusually strong genetic match, immediate geographic proximity, and no other known candidate progenitors.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1265104132395855872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264795382845866000,"conversation_id":"1264789488699453441","created_at":1590385692000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"05:48:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"It wasn't for lack of knowing what to do. We *knew* what to do. \n\nBut what I failed to anticipate was the degree of political polarization that would emerge around very existence and severity of the disease, and all of the problems that this would create.\n\nIt's heartbreaking.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":46,"retweets_count":177,"likes_count":899,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264795382845865985","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264795095322161200,"conversation_id":"1264789488699453441","created_at":1590385624000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"05:47:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"People are remarking on my choice of the word \"we\". \n\nI'm an epidemiologist. As such, it's my job to prevent things like this from happening. It was entirely avoidable; just look at Vietnam or South Korea or New Zealand or Mongolia. But it happened nonetheless.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":69,"likes_count":425,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264795095322161152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264749312803614700,"conversation_id":"1264749312803614721","created_at":1590374708000,"date":"2020-05-25","time":"02:45:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Alaska is doing an amazing job of fighting COVID19, with ZERO new cases today among residents.\n\nBut some of Alaska's great non-profit institutions are suffering from the loss of tourist revenues. Take a moment, if you've enjoyed trips to Alaska, and maybe think about how to help.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":414,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264749312803614721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264408140176486400,"conversation_id":"1264406037563502592","created_at":1590293366000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"04:09:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Serious answer: \"work\" in this context means \"reduce the probability of transmission\". \n\nMasks reduce the probability of transmission. Distancing by 6 feet (or preferably more) reduces the probability of transmission. Doing both reduces the probability of transmission EVEN MORE.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":120,"likes_count":769,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264408140176486400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264379337970552800,"conversation_id":"1264377220098699264","created_at":1590286499000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:14:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"You can make this notion formal by thinking about equilibria of the actual game relative to equilibria of *comparator games* with finer information sets. \n\nWe do that. It gets messy fast, so we only go so far as addressing action-response games. Plenty more to do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264379337970552835","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264379063461789700,"conversation_id":"1264377220098699264","created_at":1590286434000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:13:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So when we think about informational moves, we are interested in both information-revealing moves that you wouldn't make otherwise, and information-concealing moves that you wouldn't make otherwise.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264379063461789697","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264378709340913700,"conversation_id":"1264377220098699264","created_at":1590286349000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:12:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Take those Moderna guys who sold a ton of shares right after the Phase 1 trial press release. Imagine they hadn't sold, instead, to avoid the bad optics of it. That would also fit the definition above, holding on to shares to avoid tipping their low confidence.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264378709340913666","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264378271036133400,"conversation_id":"1264377220098699264","created_at":1590286245000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:10:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"But the thing is, signals are information-revealing. This description also applies to moves that *conceal* information.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264378271036133376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264377714439360500,"conversation_id":"1264377220098699264","created_at":1590286112000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:08:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The most basic intuition is a signal is something you do because the other player doesn't know what you do, and that you wouldn't bother to do if the other player did know what you do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1264377714439360513","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263672892618715100,"conversation_id":"1263605696844623873","created_at":1590118070000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"03:27:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"People are asking me what the IFR ranges ought to be. That's tricky and depends in part on the purpose of the models for which the parameters are intended.\n\nThat said, I'd want to span the range of reasonable estimates, and I want a point estimate that in accord with such.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":180,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263672892618715136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263608976320508000,"conversation_id":"1263605696844623873","created_at":1590102831000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"23:13:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The more I think about it, the more this bothers me. \n\nThese numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":58,"retweets_count":371,"likes_count":1201,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263608976320507904","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263370634819559400,"conversation_id":"1263363376685608964","created_at":1590046006000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"07:26:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I am not endorsing all of the point of view here. I do think it is an interesting one, though. I've planned to encourage my own kids to take gap years, and would have been even more likely to do so this year. I posted b/c this makes a good counterpoint to what I'd been thinking.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263370634819559428","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263293814254362600,"conversation_id":"1263291960065810435","created_at":1590027690000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:21:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I can't believe that this is a serious JP Morgan report. They're a huge operation with enormous sums of money at stake. \n\nIf they were this incompetent, the government would have had to bail them out to the tune of eleven figures at least once in the past couple decades.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":130,"likes_count":793,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263293814254362624","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263293325995503600,"conversation_id":"1263291960065810435","created_at":1590027574000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:19:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"And then there's a Berkson's paradox issue. The states are not randomly chosen for reopening; reopening depends on local trends already underway.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":274,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263293325995503617","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263293151701168000,"conversation_id":"1263291960065810435","created_at":1590027532000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"02:18:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Probably the bigger issue is the neglect of transitory dynamics. Short-term behavioral responses to lifting a lockdown are not going to be indicative of the long-term behavioral consequences.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":214,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1263293151701168128","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262861819724488700,"conversation_id":"1262854364512677888","created_at":1589924695000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:44:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"...in the Santa Clara study, they did not use any of the tests touted in the WSJ op-ed; they used tests from Premier Biotech. Their own report lists sensitivity 82.8% and specificity 99.5%. The former is a far cry from the 99.6%-100% claimed in the OpEd and the latter misses too.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262861819724488705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262859789173813200,"conversation_id":"1262854364512677888","created_at":1589924211000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:36:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So that's pretty much a straw man. The other issue is that WSJ author Bogan does not mention it, he is a co-author on the Santa Clara study that is implicitly referenced in all these accusations of political motivation. Which matters because...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262859789173813249","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262459308140146700,"conversation_id":"1262043508518432769","created_at":1589828729000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"19:05:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm truly surprised at how many men feel threatened by the fact that I listed four women who are excellent sources of COVID-19 information.\n\nGuys—mute me, block me, change the channel, whatever it takes. You don't have to read my tweets if they upset you.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":283,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262459308140146688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262275205725999000,"conversation_id":"1262263456775860225","created_at":1589784835000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"06:53:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"(Also, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its Scandinavian neighbors. I would not endorse their strategy even if the US were similar in the ways that Stan describes.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":161,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262275205725999104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262172403943174100,"conversation_id":"1262168617363234816","created_at":1589760325000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"00:05:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Throughout, the authors assume relatively undemanding levels of testing. To me the paper suggests that contact tracing is a viable and—at least in the absence of truly massive-scale testing—probably necessary component of plans to reopen the economy prior to an effective vaccine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":145,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262172403943174144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262171204338634800,"conversation_id":"1262168617363234816","created_at":1589760039000,"date":"2020-05-18","time":"00:00:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Tracing is far from absolute; they assume that 50% of symptomatic infections are identified and 40% of those patients' contacts are identified. This turns out to make enough difference to keep the second wave down, though not to quickly eradicate disease.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262171204338634753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262116380779753500,"conversation_id":"1262109733072166912","created_at":1589746968000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"20:22:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I've been hopeful that we can move to AN swabs and/or saliva collection to allow self-collection of samples with lower invasiveness. \n\nI still am hopeful. This seems like a modest setback.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262116380779753473","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262116111379599400,"conversation_id":"1262109733072166912","created_at":1589746904000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"20:21:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"People are pointing out that this could be due to sample collection issues, use of AN swabs, etc, not the Abbott's amplification process itself. \n\nI wholeheartedly agree.\n\nThe problem is that sample collection is hard—and it is an unavoidable part of testing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1262116111379599360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261962503879135200,"conversation_id":"1261934408279355392","created_at":1589710281000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"10:11:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Remarkably, numerous individuals uninfected with COVID-19 had cross-reactive CD4+ cells due to previous infection with two of the other circulating human coronaviruses responsible for the \"common cold\". It's not clear whether this is clinically relevant, but could be.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":168,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261962503879135232","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261961997282799600,"conversation_id":"1261934408279355392","created_at":1589710160000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"10:09:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The CD4+ response targeted a remarkably diverse range of epitopes including the spike protein but also a number of other targets, especially the M and N proteins. This suggests a broad range of possible vaccine targets.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261961997282799616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261961362223186000,"conversation_id":"1261934408279355392","created_at":1589710009000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"10:06:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"All patients studied (n=20) developed helper T-cells (CD4+) specific to the virus.  These are critical in both the humoral (antibody-producing) and cell-mediated branches of the immune response. Most had detectable killer T-cells (C8+) for the virus as well.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261961362223185921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261939860962566100,"conversation_id":"1261939860962566144","created_at":1589704883000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"08:41:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So apparently conspiracy theorist and alternative health proponent Dr. Russell Blaylock is going on about how masks are dangerous, and the @JoinedApril01234567 accounts are pushing his nonsense all over twitter.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":62,"likes_count":325,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261939860962566144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261767419187454000,"conversation_id":"1261766497866665984","created_at":1589663769000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"21:16:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"This effort is operating in collaboration with King County Department of Health and with full approval from Washington State. \n\nIt's an offshoot of the team that first discovered community transmission of COVID-19 within the US.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":81,"likes_count":381,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261767419187453952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261466623635910700,"conversation_id":"1261450103581106178","created_at":1589592054000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"01:20:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The next self-proclaimed libertarian who urges the State of Washington to fire me for my private speech on twitter ought to be sentenced to a leaf-blower fight with Rand Paul.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":47,"likes_count":617,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261466623635910656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261432882301595600,"conversation_id":"1261406391710842882","created_at":1589584010000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"23:06:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I like a world where the puzzle pieces fit togehter.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261432882301595648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261412446041825300,"conversation_id":"1261406391710842882","created_at":1589579137000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"21:45:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I know it looks awful for these guys—and I'm quite angry about all of the transgressions myself—but I simply don't believe that any of them would compromise their careers for $500K let alone $5K. \n\nI think they must truly believe in what they are saying and doing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":38,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":341,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261412446041825280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261411633638736000,"conversation_id":"1261406391710842882","created_at":1589578944000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"21:42:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Truly extraordinary story; read the whole thing. One of the oddest parts is the notion that anyone could influence anything for the $5000 that Neeleman supposedly donated. That should buy an hour's consulting time from one Stanford professor, not pay three of them to rig a study.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":309,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261411633638735872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261191011935518700,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589526343000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"07:05:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Careful, those things spread COVID-19, you know....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261191011935518721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261118293781254100,"conversation_id":"1261020783536553984","created_at":1589509006000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"02:16:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Today's AZ hearing very much gave the impression that Dr. Bhattacharya, Dr. Hay, et al. were members of a team assembled by Mr. Ginn to make a point about reopening. \n\nI'd love to know from the researchers whether this is an accurate description of how they came together.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261118293781254145","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261066151469047800,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589496574000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"22:49:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. \n\n5) Testing effort varies over time and across locations. How does this play into the estimation procedure?\n\n6) To extrapolate in this way implicitly assumes all regions will follow the same trajectory given enough time. How reasonable is that?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":117,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261066151469047808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261065767459541000,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589496483000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"22:48:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16.\n\n3) Why extrapolate to everyone being infected instead of the final epidemic size or even herd immunity threshold? \n\n4) The regression shown accounts for only a modest fraction of the variation. How does the remaining variation impact the predictions?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261065767459540992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261065201526304800,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589496348000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"22:45:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. I have SO MANY questions. \n\nJust a few of them:\n\n1) What is the causal basis for the relation between R and reported cases? Is this susceptible depletion? Something behavioral? Or is the claim it doesn't matter?\n\n2) Given (1), why can you extrapolate and why linearly?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":144,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261065201526304769","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261064737166520300,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589496237000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"22:43:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. And this turns out to be about 400,000. Yet there are 60M+ in the UK, which gives a scaling of at least 150 cases per reported cases if everyone gets infected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261064737166520320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261064350762066000,"conversation_id":"1261058066495074304","created_at":1589496145000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"22:42:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. And as always, I welcome corrections from any authors that haven't blocked me already.\n\nThe idea seems to be to extrapolate to figure out how many cases per capita would be reported by the time you reach R=0.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":155,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261064350762065923","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259343349187674000,"conversation_id":"1259317966396514304","created_at":1589085826000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"04:43:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"There seems to be a little bit of confusion around this suggestion. Of course this is not a measure of prevalence, any more than fraction of positives tests is. This isn't going to magically get rid of any of the problems of its reciprocal.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1259343349187674112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259245709259239400,"conversation_id":"1259239917776859136","created_at":1589062547000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"22:15:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Sadly, no. I guess it’s a bit of an inside joke.  I wish it were what you were saying instead.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1259245709259239424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259239917776859100,"conversation_id":"1259239917776859136","created_at":1589061166000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"21:52:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Good news. \n\nI've fitted an ERF function to the toxicity of #COVID19 #epitwitter, and while it's skyrocketed over the past two months, it's about to reverse course and will be kind and gentle again by July 1.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":270,"hashtags":["#covid19","#epitwitter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1259239917776859136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259163942607155200,"conversation_id":"1259163942607155212","created_at":1589043052000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"16:50:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I finally gave in and blocked a couple of people today. I really hate to do that—the mute function suffices 99.9% of the time. I certainly don't block for insulting me. But these people were so persistent in posting vapid nonsense to waste my followers' time that I had no choice.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":51,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":1058,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1259163942607155212","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258560032557285400,"conversation_id":"1258559214584119296","created_at":1588899069000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"00:51:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Now we know:\n\n1) Most people who get #COVID19 produce antibodies.\n\n2) From a separate study, most people who produce antibodies produce enough to confer some immunity. \n\nWhat we don't know:\n\n3) How long naturally acquired immunity lasts, and how that depends on disease severity.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":433,"likes_count":1054,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258560032557285376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258315549194375200,"conversation_id":"1258308019672121347","created_at":1588840779000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"08:39:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"^ median, not mean","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258315549194375168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258309599163117600,"conversation_id":"1258308019672121347","created_at":1588839361000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"08:16:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Maybe more to the point, this will not get much traction because people have not yet figured out how to politicize the incubation period. Kind of surprising, really.\n\n(I'm sure someone, somewhere, can prove me wrong.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":149,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258309599163117568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258036720932540400,"conversation_id":"1257890881975103489","created_at":1588774302000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"14:11:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"The fundamental issues that in the context of our society, even systematically-applied rules about the use of titles *interact* with gender to shape viewers’ perceptions In ways that devalue the expertise of women.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258036720932540416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258029541693382700,"conversation_id":"1257890881975103489","created_at":1588772590000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"13:43:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Blind adherence to style guidelines in case like this results in *equality* without *equity*. \n\nI did not mean to attribute motive. But the consequences were unfortunate. \n\nI hope that style guidelines can be reconsidered so as to move toward more equitable treatment of guests.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":163,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258029541693382663","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258028715637796900,"conversation_id":"1257890881975103489","created_at":1588772393000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"13:39:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Imagine that I had been the guest instead of Prof. Dean.  I truly believe that age and gender would have rendered the differences in treatment less visible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":80,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258028715637796866","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258028243703099400,"conversation_id":"1257890881975103489","created_at":1588772280000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"13:38:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"In the context of the inequities in our society, it is impossible for me to watch that clip and feel that the two experts were put on equal footing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":139,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1258028243703099392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257931248401633300,"conversation_id":"1257927732672950274","created_at":1588749155000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"07:12:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"What we need now is a 2020 version for the cocky GI setting foot for the first time in the cultural unknown of #epitwitter.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":["#epitwitter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257931248401633280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257732916299182000,"conversation_id":"1257732351934660615","created_at":1588701869000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"18:04:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"^fitting\n\nI need to stop tweeting from my phone","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257732916299182081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257469401395126300,"conversation_id":"1257469401395126272","created_at":1588639042000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"00:37:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Ten weeks or so into the pandemic, I spend more and more of my time searching for old threads and pasting the links. It's finally dawning on me:\n\nThere is no new bullshit under the sun.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":36,"retweets_count":75,"likes_count":855,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257469401395126272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257351429922177000,"conversation_id":"1257348207018946561","created_at":1588610916000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"16:48:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, I’m not saying that isothermal testing is useless. Hopefully we can find ways to scale it. In the meantime I am more optimistic about scaling up through  barcoding with multipllex RTPCR, or even clever applications of batch testing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":99,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257351429922177027","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257349321047134200,"conversation_id":"1257348207018946561","created_at":1588610413000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"16:40:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Seems to me you go in, take a test on arrival, sit in the waiting room with a mask, and proceed once it comes back negative. \n\nOnce community testing is available, better yet test the day before as well via RTPCR, and go in only if negative. Then retest using isothermal on-site.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":126,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257349321047134213","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257348835636109300,"conversation_id":"1257348207018946561","created_at":1588610297000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"16:38:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"There is one obvious and important use case though. Dentists’ offices. They serve an essential function, staff face probably the *highest* exposure risk of any profession, in the cost of services and equipment is commensurate with the cost of an Abbott machine.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":248,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257348835636109314","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257348207018946600,"conversation_id":"1257348207018946561","created_at":1588610147000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"16:35:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I’m sure others have realized this, but I have been struggling to understand how high cost, low throughput, point-of-care isothermal testing such as Abbott produces can contribute in a meaningful way to stemming the pandemic or reopening the economy.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":71,"likes_count":360,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257348207018946561","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257283802163843000,"conversation_id":"1257283802163843072","created_at":1588594792000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"12:19:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"It took publishing an OpEd in the New York Times for me to realize that Hotmail is still in business.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":35,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":535,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257283802163843072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257102661184151600,"conversation_id":"1257099927135457280","created_at":1588551604000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"00:20:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"To be clear, I am not advocating for an indefinite lockdown. That is untenable. \n\nWe need massive investment in the capacity to stem the spread of COVID19 through a test-trace-isolate approach.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":85,"likes_count":505,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1257102661184151552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256847178514849800,"conversation_id":"1256846880157253632","created_at":1588490693000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"07:24:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"MLB could use the crisis as an excuse to deploy robot umpires. \n\nThe Mariners could use it as an excuse to continue playing in an empty stadium.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":608,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256847178514849792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256846880157253600,"conversation_id":"1256846880157253632","created_at":1588490621000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"07:23:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I've been talking with various stakeholders about how to restart MLB, NBA, etc. \n\nI had been saying that baseball is beautifully designed for a pandemic. \n\nExceptionally little direct contact, and never do members of both teams touch the ball before you replace it with a new one.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":27,"retweets_count":57,"likes_count":449,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256846880157253632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256828524276510700,"conversation_id":"1256828515057467393","created_at":1588486245000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"06:10:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. Compared to the SIR model, the herd immunity threshold is a few percent lower, as is the final fraction infected. But all qualitative features are preserved, and the quantitative values are very similar.\n\nI hope this will put some of the concerns to rest.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":15,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":131,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256828524276510721","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256828521168564200,"conversation_id":"1256828515057467393","created_at":1588486244000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"06:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. A framework like this is be essential for exploring the effects of age-specific interventions (e.g. cocooning) and network-based interventions (e.g. contact tracing). \n\nBut I've found it remarkable how little the heterogeneity and network structure impact basic epi dynamics.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256828521168564224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256828520359063600,"conversation_id":"1256828515057467393","created_at":1588486244000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"06:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. Network structure and all biological parameter distributions are all estimated from empirical data, as is household composition. The contact network structure regenerates empirical distributions of age-by-age encounter rates.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":56,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256828520359063558","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256828519562145800,"conversation_id":"1256828515057467393","created_at":1588486244000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"06:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. In short, the model includes age structure, age-specific interactions (workplaces, schools, etc.), multiple network layers of hierarchically structured contacts, family structure, and heterogeneity in individual social and biological parameters.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256828519562145792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256828517741781000,"conversation_id":"1256828515057467393","created_at":1588486244000,"date":"2020-05-03","time":"06:10:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Some people have raised concerns about whether a basic SIR model adequately captures the qualitative features and basic quantitative magnitudes of a real-world system with heterogeneous individual parameters and a realistic contact network instead of a well-mixed structure.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":72,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1256828517741780992","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255990844840018000,"conversation_id":"1255987758746570752","created_at":1588286527000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"22:42:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Mental health struggles are so much more common that you may realize. I've faced them myself.\n\nEven in a normal year, 10% of Americans suffer from a mood disorder and 20% from an anxiety disorder.\n\nThis is not a normal year.\n\nYou are not alone in what you are going through.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":55,"likes_count":336,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255990844840017920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255987758746570800,"conversation_id":"1255987758746570752","created_at":1588285791000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"22:29:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Many people are struggling with mental health issues during the pandemic. \n\nThe combination of uncertainty and lack of control exacerbate anxiety; these factors, the social isolation, and the broken routine of our lives can contribute to depression.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":26,"retweets_count":168,"likes_count":772,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255987758746570752","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255781098430148600,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588236519000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:48:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"18. It's almost frustrating. The original thread, posts 1-8, was my effort to be transparent by highlighting a piece of solid work that did not support my prior beliefs. But then you folks showed up and proved that I was right all along.\n\nMaybe there's still an error somewhere.😀","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":201,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255781098430148613","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255777404682829800,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588235639000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:33:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. Thanks to everyone who helped me work through this.\n\ntl;dr conclusion: the population IFR is several times higher than the age 17-69 IFR, so the Danish study here is closer in line with the results out of New York than the results from the Santa Clara and LA county studies.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255777404682829824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255776196014432300,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588235350000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:29:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. Another possibility is that I screwed up the math; I'm open to corrections. It's 1:30 AM and I'm unwisely doing back-of-the-envelope math in real time and public view on a combined 10 hours of sleep over the past 3 nights. \nConsider this your disclaimer for the entire thread.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255776196014432256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255775528096678000,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588235191000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:26:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. Why is this higher than the estimate I got using the Chinese figures? I'm guessing that CFR in the 60-69 age group in China is substantially higher than CFR for the same group in Denmark.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255775528096677889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255775228464033800,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588235120000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:25:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. To get the population IFR, we take the IFR for 20-69 year olds and numerator by a factor of 370/53 and the denominator by 1/0.73.\n\nThis gives us a 5.4-fold increase for a population IFR of 0.44%, CI (0.32-0.83%), closer in line with what I would have expected.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255775228464033792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255773883958845400,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588234799000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"08:19:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. Approximately 73% of the Danish population is aged 20-69 (again, I don't have the data for 17-69). \n\nIFR 20-69  =   deaths 20-69 / cases 20-69.\n\nIFR pop = all deaths / all cases.\n\nAssume cases are uniform across age. \n\nThe paper gives us total deaths as well as deaths 17-69.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255773883958845441","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255764209746407400,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588232493000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"07:41:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. Other estimates of IFR also land in that range 0.5%-1%. While the authors of the Danish study discuss some limitations, I don't see obvious glaring flaws. Lag times to death may come into play. \n\nWhat, if anything, am I missing?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":48,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255764209746407424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255763757583630300,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588232385000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"07:39:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. This is very close to the data coming out of California, data that I have publicly criticized. \n\nThis is puzzling. With 0.15% of New York City's population dead from COVID19, that seems to be a very hard lower bound on IFR. Realistically, 0.7-1.0% seems more likely for NYC.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":112,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255763757583630337","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255763274336882700,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588232270000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"07:37:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. When you go through this process, you find that the population IFR should be almost exactly twice the IFR in the 20-69 category. (I don't have data to extend down to age 17). \n\nThis yields a population IFR estimate of something like  0.16% with approximate CI 0.12-0.31.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":70,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255763274336882688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255761175595253800,"conversation_id":"1255759911570386944","created_at":1588231769000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"07:29:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Methodologically this study seems to avoid many of the problems that plague the Californian studies, most notably because sampling bias is reduced by using blood donations instead of soliciting patients specifically for serotype testing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255761175595253760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255676599434752000,"conversation_id":"1255674717601542144","created_at":1588211605000,"date":"2020-04-30","time":"01:53:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I don't understand why people are making fun of this. \n\nSpontaneous aerosolization of blood samples is readily prevented by holding a mask against your face.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255676599434752000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255350829382602800,"conversation_id":"1255343846445195266","created_at":1588133935000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"04:18:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"(That's not to let IHME off the hook; once they started promoting the ability for their model to do anything else, they became responsible for its predictions at other stages of the pandemic.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1255350829382602754","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
