{"id":1272010922400182300,"conversation_id":"1272007583222513664","created_at":1592106011000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"03:40:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4.  I don't know if I have the energy to go through his whole #COVID19 blog post, but let's at least give it a go. The post is organized around a series of \"facts\" that are more like cherry-picked claims. I'll address them in order.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":145,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1272010922400182272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270618152502562800,"conversation_id":"1270616629689282570","created_at":1591773949000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"07:25:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. Given the stakes, this is not a time to cover one's hindquarters. Trying to correct the record, one is already fighting against Jonathan Swift's observation that \"Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it.\"\n\nClarity is essential. Today's correction was anything but.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":225,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270618152502562819","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270617379433623600,"conversation_id":"1270616629689282570","created_at":1591773764000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"07:22:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. Yesterday we issued an unintentionally misleading statement in our press conference. We want to correct the record. \n\nPeople without symptoms can and do transmit COVID to others. Therefore masks and social distancing measures remain essential in our fight against the pandemic.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":72,"likes_count":283,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270617379433623552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270616632763670500,"conversation_id":"1270616629689282570","created_at":1591773586000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"07:19:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. But more importantly, the message was misleading, and dangerously so. After this story made the rounds, many people I've talked to now believe it's completely safe to go out and shop, socialize, work, protest, or whatever, so long as they are not feeling sick. \n\nThat's untrue.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":142,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270616632763670529","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270616632075808800,"conversation_id":"1270616629689282570","created_at":1591773586000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"07:19:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. (Even with that caveat, this is not really an accurate description of the totality of evidence. Several studies have shown considerable transmission from asymptomatic—rather than pre-symptomatic—patients.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270616632075808768","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270616631366959000,"conversation_id":"1270616629689282570","created_at":1591773586000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"07:19:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Much of the problem is that \"asymptomatic patients\" sounds like it refers to anyone without symptoms. It doesn't. It's epidemiology jargon for a patient who never will develop symptoms, in contrast with \"pre-symptomatic patients\" who don't have symptoms yet but will shortly.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270616631366959104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270608216083148800,"conversation_id":"1270607845000527872","created_at":1591771580000,"date":"2020-06-10","time":"06:46:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"You know you've been there.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270608216083148801","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270281475544322000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591693679000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"09:07:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"43.  Ridley's hope that virulence will decline due to selection (and his fear that we are slowing the process by not allowing the disease to rip through our communities) seems misplaced.\n\nAnd his confident assurance that COVID will become just another cold is utterly unfounded.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":36,"retweets_count":57,"likes_count":324,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270281475544322053","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270281474676154400,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591693678000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"09:07:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"42.\n\n2) Even if COVID did evolve decreased virulence, it would not likely do it on a timescale that would help us much.\n\n3) Selection of COVID virulence is likely very weak. \n\n4) Empirically, many diseases have virulence uncoupled from transmission entirely.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":35,"likes_count":167,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270281474676154368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270281473598255000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591693678000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"09:07:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"41. To wrap up, we've seen that \n\n1) Empirically, we don't commonly see the patterns that Ridley is hoping for, and we do see that virulence can do all sorts of things, including make a u-turn in those poor rabbits.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":127,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270281473598255105","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270279749311422500,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591693267000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"09:01:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"40. This is more hypothetical: COVID pathogenesis fits fairly well with many aspects of the Levin and Bull model. The majority of individuals have mild disease, but some are unlucky. Transmission from deep in the lung, where the greatest damage is done, is unlikely.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270279749311422466","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270278945187885000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591693075000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:57:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"39. (The original Levin and Bull paper focuses on within-host evolution as a driver of shit-happens virulence, but in my opinion this is largely unnecessary. Within-host ecology, e.g. sites of colonization/reproduction, goes a long way by itself.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270278945187885056","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270278265958097000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591692913000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:55:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"38. For somewhat more complicated reasons, AIDS seems very unlikely to be an adaptation to further the transmission of HIV. Levin and Bull go into this in detail in their paper as well.\n\nAnd so on, and so forth.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":88,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270278265958096896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270277583389638700,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591692751000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:52:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"37. Poliovirus is an RNA virus that is transmitted by an oral-fecal route. Along that route, it causes no pathology. But sometimes it gets into the CNS. There, it causes severe pathology—but again that's a dead end for transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270277583389638656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270277101938081800,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591692636000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:50:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"36. But sometimes they get into the cerebrospinal fluid, and cause terrible pathology. They don't transmit from there—the CSF is a transmission dead end for them—but in a small fraction of patients, they get there. For meningitis, virulence is wholly uncoupled from transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270277101938081793","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270277100822544400,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591692636000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:50:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"35. They provide a number of really compelling examples. \n\nThe bacterial species commonly responsible for meningitis—H. influenzae, N. meningitidis, and S. pneumoniae—are transmitted by respiratory droplets and usually causes little or no pathology.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":88,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270277100822544384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270275934067687400,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591692357000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:45:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"34. The paper proposes that for many diseases, the harm that is done to the host is essentially disconnected from any benefit to the pathogen.\n\nVirulence is not a matter of evolutionary fine tuning, it is, as Bruce is fond of saying, simply a matter of \"shit happens.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270275934067687424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270273941567713300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691882000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:38:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"31. Another way to think about it is that the bad things that COVID does occur after transmission and only to a small fraction of people, so natural selection can't really \"see\" those things or operate effectively on them.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":168,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270273941567713282","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270273670447952000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691818000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:36:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"30. That means that evolutionary changes in virulence will not necessarily not change transmission much, unless they change other things by coincidence as well.\n\nAnd *that* means that selection on COVID-19 virulence is likely very weak.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270273670447951872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270273383276531700,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691749000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:35:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"29. The really bad things that COVID-19 does to people happen (1) only in a small subset of people and (2) after most or all of the transmission has already taken place.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":126,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270273383276531712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270272454598865000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691528000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:32:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"28.  Second, when death occurs, it typically occurs long after the usual window of disease transmission, a couple of weeks or more after the onset of symptoms. \n\nWhy do these thing matter?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270272454598864896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270271860454731800,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691386000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:29:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"27. There are really a couple of key observations to make about the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in this respect.\n\nFirst, note that disease severity varies widely among patients. Most infected people do not suffer severe disease. Approximately 5% are hospitalized. 0.5-1.0% die.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270271860454731776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270271859439755300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591691386000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:29:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"26. Taking stock, the theory is telling us that (1) the first successful mutations may not move us toward reduced virulence and (2) even if they do, it'll take years to get there.\n\nNow let's look at how natural selection operates on virulence in a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270271859439755265","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270267215162437600,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591690279000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:11:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"25. A new mutation is *very rare* because there are millions of active cases worldwide, and it is just one of them. If it transmits say 10% more effectively (a very big advantage by evolutionary standards) it would take hundreds of generations—multiple years—to become common.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270267215162437633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270265749777510400,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591689929000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:05:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"24. (Technical aside: if R0 isn't much bigger than 1, the new mutation probably goes extinct. We can approximate transmission as a Poisson branching process, and calculate exactly what that probability is. But let's ignore that, by supposing the mutation arises and persists.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":120,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270265749777510401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270264639624892400,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591689665000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"08:01:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"23. It matters because of the nature of competition and the nature of exponential growth. Suppose that tomorrow a new mutation arises that decreases virulence but increases transmissibility—just the kind that Ridley is hoping for in his argument. What happens to it?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270264639624892416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270263957878530000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591689502000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:58:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"22. As we think about timescales, the next thing to keep in mind is that we are currently in expansion phase of a pandemic to which comparably few people on earth are already immune. \n\nWhy does this matter?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270263957878530049","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270262679769280500,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591689197000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:53:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"21. Given the limited genetic variation we are seeing in SARS-CoV-2 and some other factors I'm about to discuss, \"early on\" will be on the order of years or even decades.\n\nSo any predictions of the sort Ridley is making pertain to the 2030s or later better than to 2021.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":147,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270262679769280512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270261770230399000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591688981000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:49:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"19. If the virus is originally more virulent than optimal, the first successful mutations could make it more virulent still, so long as they help it spread. Only once the virus gets \"really good\" at spreading in humans could we expect it to approach any sort of virulence optimum.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":134,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270261770230398976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270260793099968500,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591688748000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:45:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"18. That's SARSCoV2 as of last November. What happens next? Well, that depends on what mutations happen to arise and what those mutations do. In general, those that increase how well the virus transmits will also increase in frequency. (But we'll revisit this; it's also subtle.)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":136,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270260793099968514","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270260267885060000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591688622000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:43:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"17. When a virus emerges into the human population from another species, we don't expect it to be perfectly adapted for transmission. It may be inefficient at replicating, or may colonize the wrong parts of the body. It may be too virulent, or not virulence enough.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":143,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270260267885060102","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270259656221323300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591688476000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:41:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. If we could expect it to happen over the course of a year or so, that could help should a vaccine fail to materialize.\n\nIf it would take 100 years that's little consolation to me—and while Viscount Ridley may not agree, I think we're going have other, bigger problems by then.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":161,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270259656221323266","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270257701038088200,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591688010000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:33:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. I can't cover all that here but I do want to raise a few key points. \n\nLet's start with time scale and mutation supply. \n\n*Even if* evolutionary theory unambiguously predicted a major decrease in COVID virulence, we still ought to be asking how long it would take.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":159,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270257701038088199","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270257173474373600,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687885000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:31:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. These include the vertical vs. horizontal transmission, competition between co-infecting strains, effects of an immune system, heterogeneity in host condition or genetics, and the role of vector spread.\n\nI sometimes spend 2 weeks on this in my course. It's not nearly enough.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":195,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270257173474373633","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270256441979318300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687710000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:28:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. So if we just look this far, we might expect to see the evolution of intermediate levels of virulence. \n\nBut of course this only scratches the surface. There are a whole host other considerations and there have been literally hundreds of papers written about these.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":137,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270256441979318272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270256162504454100,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687644000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:27:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. If a strain is to transmit, it needs to reproduce within the host and facilitate its own spread. This is hard to do without harming the host somewhat. But if it is too virulent, it may kill the host too quickly and miss out on opportunities for transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270256162504454144","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270256161581699000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687643000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:27:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"11. The most basic idea behind the theory of virulence evolution is that viruses face tradeoffs between virulence (the harm they cause to the host) and transmissibility (how well they spread to other hosts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":166,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270256161581699073","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270254796511957000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687318000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:21:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. Ridley is telling us an evolutionary story based in the theory of virulence evolution.\n\nSo what does that theory actually say about what we should expect SARS-CoV-2 to do over the next few years? Let's take a look.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":148,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270254796511956993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270254267048161300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591687192000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"07:19:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"9. Virulence evolution is not a simple, predictable, one-way trajectory.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":256,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270254267048161281","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270246910532579300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591685438000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"06:50:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. Other endemic virus remain highly virulent. Influenza remains far worse than a common cold. Measles, even more so. Smallpox, worse yet. \n\nWhen spinning these evolutionary tales, people often invoke myxoma virus, introduced into Australia in the 1950s to control wild rabbits.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":221,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270246910532579329","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270246904165593000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591685436000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"06:50:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. We simply do not have the evidence to draw that conclusion with any kind of certainty. I can't think of a human viral pathogen that has evolved this level of reduced virulence in recent enough history that we were able to monitor it. In any case, it's clear that not all do.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":260,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270246904165593093","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270246901812621300,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591685436000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"06:50:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. Even if OC43 was the Asiatic flu—a pretty huge leap—I wouldn't want to gamble that SARS-CoV-2 would follow its trajectory. The final sentence is striking. No speculation, no \"maybe\"—just the assertion that unchecked COVID-19 will become indistinguishable from every other cold.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":208,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270246901812621312","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270246863975805000,"conversation_id":"1270226183485976584","created_at":1591685427000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"06:50:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. First, let's get the blog post out of the way. Ridley is speculating that the Asiatic flu of 1889-90 was not an influenza pandemic at all, but rather the emergence of the now-mild OC43 coronavirus into humans. According to his story, it subsequently evolved lower virulence.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":160,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270246863975804931","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270122157406711800,"conversation_id":"1270122157406711809","created_at":1591655694000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"22:34:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"CNBC headlines are bullshit.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":270,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270122157406711809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270107823116914700,"conversation_id":"1270105417838784512","created_at":1591652277000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"21:37:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"CNBC then took that confusing report, read too much into it, and slapped on a totally incorrect and sensationalist headline—\"Coronavirus patients without symptoms aren’t driving the spread of the virus, the WHO says\". \n\nThe result is the confusion we are seeing around this today.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":145,"likes_count":528,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270107823116914688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270106536182866000,"conversation_id":"1270105417838784512","created_at":1591651970000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"21:32:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Even if truly asymptomatic spread is very rare, pre-symptomatic transmission is likely to be important. \n\nWe still need to wear masks and distance to avoid spreading the virus during this period, probably concentrated in days 3-6 after infection.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":246,"likes_count":649,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270106536182865920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270080393421615000,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645737000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:48:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"If it's all coming from asymptomatic people who shed virus for say 8 days, you need to test people approximately every 4 days to halve that.\n\nIf it's all coming from presymptomatic people who shed for 2 days, you need to test daily to have the same effect.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270080393421615104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270080170611716000,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645684000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:48:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"When only pre-symptomatic people transmit disease, you only have a couple of days to catch them before symptoms develop.\n\nThink of it this way. Suppose 50% of transmission is from people without symptoms, and you want to cut that in half.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":89,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270080170611716099","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270080169777066000,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645684000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:48:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"And that, in turn, would mean that testing-trace-isolate procedures will be *less* effective than we are hoping. \n\nWhen asymptomatic people transmit disease you have a broad window across which it helps to catch them via testing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270080169777065984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270079411451080700,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645503000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:45:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So what we have to ask ourselves now is \"if true, what would this mean about current modes of spread?\" \n\nIt would mean, I think, that pre-symptomatic spread (by people who later develop symptoms) is extremely important.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":162,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270079411451080708","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270079155145592800,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645442000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:44:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Ex ante (e.g., if you'd told me on Feb. 1) it would be unreservedly good news. Controlling a disease without asymptomatic spread is easier and controlling one with it.\n\nBut it's not ex ante. We now *know* how fast the disease is spreading given our current control measures.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":99,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270079155145592832","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270079153979535400,"conversation_id":"1270067622135005184","created_at":1591645441000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"19:44:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I see this being widely interpreted as good news. \n\nAs with just about everything about this infernal disease, it's more complicated than that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1270079153979535366","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269919688902840300,"conversation_id":"1269919688902840322","created_at":1591607422000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"09:10:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"One of the most important practical question about #COVID19 to which we have basically no answer is this: what is the likelihood of testing positive during the first five or so days after infection. \n\nThis is crucial information for designing back-to-work testing protocols.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":176,"likes_count":672,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269919688902840322","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269811876235341800,"conversation_id":"1269806315053842434","created_at":1591581717000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"02:01:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Prior to getting tested, consider social distancing within your own home if that is possible.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":152,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269811876235341824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269811514938015700,"conversation_id":"1269806315053842434","created_at":1591581631000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"02:00:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"How long after marching should you get tested? There are tradeoffs. If you get tested too early, you are more likely to get a false negative result. If you wait too long, you might expose people before you get tested.  Five to six days is probably the sweet spot.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":173,"likes_count":348,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269811514938015745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269806315053842400,"conversation_id":"1269806315053842434","created_at":1591580392000,"date":"2020-06-08","time":"01:39:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Though #COVID19 does not spread as readily outdoors, there is a real risk of transmission during the #BlackLivesMatter protests. If you are protesting, wear a mask to protect others, and please consider getting tested a few days later to mitigate risk to family and community.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":34,"retweets_count":381,"likes_count":1245,"hashtags":["#covid19","#blacklivesmatter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269806315053842434","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269595702193082400,"conversation_id":"1269572831202828290","created_at":1591530178000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"11:42:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"This seems to be one good answer to my original question (synthesizing points from people generally quite hostile to my stance):\n\nArguments about flattening the curve etc pushed us toward a utilitarian frame. Looking at other frameworks at this point may appear disingenuous.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269595702193082374","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269579766752919600,"conversation_id":"1269572831202828290","created_at":1591526378000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"10:39:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"[Many replies: public health is undermined by expressing ethical opinions]\n\nMy intent was to raise the question of why we tend to default to utilitarianism in this debate, given that the thorniest ethical questions tend to be these in which the frameworks yield different answers.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":29,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":187,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269579766752919552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269572831202828300,"conversation_id":"1269572831202828290","created_at":1591524725000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"10:12:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"We are having difficult but vital conversations about whether public health professionals can support the #BlackLivesMatter protests during a pandemic. I'm unhappy to see these defaulting to utilitarian calculus rather than considering deontological or virtue ethics perspectives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":109,"retweets_count":97,"likes_count":713,"hashtags":["#blacklivesmatter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269572831202828290","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034459635912700,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396367000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"6. The fact that millions are taking to the streets in all 50 states, despite the personal risk of harm, speaks volumes. Change is long overdue and bringing about this change is a public health necessity and a human justice issue as well. Thank you to those taking a stand.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":170,"retweets_count":184,"likes_count":1506,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034459635912705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034458906128400,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396367000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. That's the science. Now the ethical side of things. I am not merely a scientist. I am a human being, and a citizen. Peaceful protest is a fundamental right and even responsibility of all Americans. No cause is more pressing than the racial disparities we face in America today.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":71,"retweets_count":131,"likes_count":1250,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034458906128384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034458214097000,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396367000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. Especially in areas without aggressive police responses, I do not expect a greater burst of COVID transmission due to protest than due to reopening activity, for example, though as with everything in science I could end up being wrong about this. We will know soon enough.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":60,"retweets_count":79,"likes_count":700,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034458214096897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034457324896300,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396366000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. Police tactics, from tear gas to pepper spray to kettling to incarceration of demonstrators, exacerbate matters substantially.\n\nSeattle Mayor Jenny Durkan has the right idea in suspending the use of tear gas for the coming month.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":28,"retweets_count":126,"likes_count":1035,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034457324896257","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034456620298200,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396366000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"2. While the spread of COVID seems to be much less of an issue outdoors (by 20- to 500-fold according to some estimates), and while masks appear to help considerably, crowded conditions are always concerning—and singing, shouting, etc. create large clouds of respiratory droplets.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":22,"retweets_count":108,"likes_count":879,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034456620298240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269034455810728000,"conversation_id":"1269034455810727936","created_at":1591396366000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"22:32:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"1. Many people have asked me whether the ongoing Black Lives Matter protests around the country pose a risk of increasing coronavirus spread. \n\nAs a scientist, I acknowledge that they may.\n\nAs a citizen, I wholeheartedly support the protests nonetheless.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":557,"retweets_count":1538,"likes_count":6904,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1269034455810727936","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268742660761645000,"conversation_id":"1268738812508639238","created_at":1591326797000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"03:13:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I am trying to educate myself enough to have something meaningful to say here. \n\nObviously racism is huge public health crisis, and systemic racism has resulted in massive health disparities for COVID19 as for just about everything else.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268742660761645057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268738812508639200,"conversation_id":"1268738812508639238","created_at":1591325879000,"date":"2020-06-05","time":"02:57:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I don't get it.\n-\n\nProtestors: Police are brutal and violent.\n\nPolice: That's not fair.\n\nProtestors: Actually, it is.\n\nPolice: Here, we'll beat the shit out of you, shoot rubber bullets, abuse children and elderly, attack the press, and gas peaceful crowds. Now do you believe us?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":58,"retweets_count":696,"likes_count":2586,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268738812508639238","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268670189505151000,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591309518000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"22:25:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"My view is that you if you want to re-open campuses, you have to use testing as a tool to suppress disease. And that is likely to require testing multiple times a week.\n\nPlatitudes from administrators about \"Return to Learn\" monthly testing plans are just that: platitudes.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":52,"likes_count":153,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268670189505150976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268668130017992700,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591309027000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"22:17:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Ultimately a surveillance plan that could be useful when the number of cases is on the order of 1/population size will do little to nothing in helping us control disease in a community where prevalence is on the order of 100/population size.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268668130017992704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268667775125385200,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591308942000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"22:15:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So it's all good and well that you can catch one case before it grows to 10. What are you going to do about the other 159+ cases?\n\nIf you don't have a way to make sure that each case generates fewer than one downstream case (i.e., R<1), you slam head-on into exponential growth.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":53,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268667775125385217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268667774424899600,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591308942000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"22:15:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"But giving limited tested, mild and asymptomatic carriage, etc., California is substantially undercounting cases, probably five to ten-fold. \n\nSo more realistically we might expect something like 325-650 active cases on campus on day 1, or 160-320 contagious cases on day 1.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268667774424899584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268667773703471000,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591308942000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"22:15:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Given 39 million people in California this sets a very strong lower bound on statewide prevalence of 1/1000. \n\nThe paper describes the UCSD community as comprising 65,000 people. \n\nThat means if we started classes today, we'd expect 65 active infections already on campus.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268667773703471109","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268617944348504000,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591297062000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"18:57:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"That may sound almost impossible, but we can use self-administered tests with saliva or short AN swabs, and we can use batch testing to stretch our coverage per test by 10x or even higher.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268617944348504065","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268617465023484000,"conversation_id":"1268565103642738689","created_at":1591296948000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"18:55:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I’ve got an editorial coming out in the Chronicle of Higher Education that comments on this.  I would guess that we’re going to end up needing testing at least twice a week. Of course that depends on what your definition of acceptable risk is well as on the community prevalence.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":123,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268617465023483910","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268327342499262500,"conversation_id":"1268325552122814464","created_at":1591227777000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"23:42:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Promote armed crackdown + sell ads for body armor.\n\nHell of a gig.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":84,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1268327342499262464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267979817191739400,"conversation_id":"1267965962885558272","created_at":1591144921000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"00:42:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Please have enough respect for Captain David Dorn to stop posting video of his body after his violent murder to make a political point, or for ANY OTHER REASON.\n\nThis is an instant block.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":37,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":256,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267979817191739392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267968188718837800,"conversation_id":"1267965962885558272","created_at":1591142148000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"23:55:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"And a note: I take my educational and scientific role seriously. I've been extremely reluctant to block anyone for disagreeing with me about epidemiology, even when they insult or accuse me.\n\nNot so, here. Post racist bullshit in my mentions, you're blocked, just like that.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":40,"likes_count":1138,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267968188718837760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267589145905397800,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591051777000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"22:49:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Perhaps more problematically, no correction notice has been added to the original story. This may be a tricky issue in journalistic ethics since it was bad judgment to publish but not false reporting. Still, some sort of notice seems warranted.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":85,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267589145905397764","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267578606412169200,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591049264000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"22:07:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Now in this case, you could he's not just some guy. He's a respected academic and a hospital director. Fair enough.\n\nAnd if his claim was an ordinary one, that might be enough for me. \n\nBut it's not.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267578606412169217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267578021604552700,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591049125000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"22:05:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So what is the evidence? \n\nDo we have an identified mutation? Not all.\n\nClinical study? Apparently not.\n\nHard numbers for viral titre? No.\n\nThe evidence is that Some-Guy-Says.\n\nThat's it. Some guy says.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":172,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267578021604552704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267577483253039000,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591048997000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"22:03:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"So this brings us to a third useful maxim:\n\nExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.\n\nCertainly the claim that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is mellowing out and going away on its own is an extraordinary one.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":163,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267577483253039104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267576264879005700,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591048706000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"21:58:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"Another rule that we teach for spotting bullshit is this:\n\nIf something seems too good—or too bad—to be true, it probably is.\n\nThis would be really good if it were true, and it's quite different from anything else we've heard from anywhere else.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":161,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267576264879005696","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267576261964001300,"conversation_id":"1267576233631469568","created_at":1591048705000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"21:58:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"In summary, the source is seemingly legitimate (just as Michael Levitt and John Ioannidis are) — but it's not clear that he has strong evidence for his claim, and it does seem that he has an agenda.\n\nSo how seriously should we take it?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":117,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267576261964001280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267531788366176300,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1591038102000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"19:01:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. Take-home lesson: editorial work is difficult and requires a deep knowledge of the terrain—particularly in a highly politicized public health environment. Where that is not available, editors should rely more on their writers to vet their work before releasing to the public.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":88,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267531788366176256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267531787414077400,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1591038102000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"19:01:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. So this seems to be the primary source of the problem. An editor tried to spice up the story with the framing that I was complaining about, and that careless reframing—rather than Jon's report—became the core message.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267531787414077440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267531786428354600,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1591038102000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"19:01:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. He would not have written that intro. \n\nUnfortunately, in this case the intro sets a frame that is largely inconsistent with the rest of the story. \n\nIt became the first sentence of the article.\n\nAnd it became the headline.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267531786428354560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267531785472102400,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1591038101000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"19:01:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"13. Second, the audio story begins with the lead-in \"1.7 million people have been infected by the coronavirus in the US and scientists are finding that the virus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared. NPR’s Jon Hamilton reports.\" \n\nAt that point Jon takes over.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267531785472102400","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267531784507371500,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1591038101000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"19:01:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. First, the printed story is a writeup meant to reflect the audio piece linked at the top. These write-ups are often done at the editorial level and may not have been approved by the reporter who is credited with the story.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267531784507371520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267311337027190800,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1590985542000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"04:25:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. But the problem is that most people who see a tweet like this won't read the article either. They'll just take away two messages.\n\n1. Epidemiologists were wrong\n2. COVID is not so dangerous\n\nBoth are false, and both are dangerous.\n\nPlease do better. Thank you.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":30,"retweets_count":145,"likes_count":920,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267311337027190786","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267311335148097500,"conversation_id":"1267311325765500930","created_at":1590985542000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"04:25:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"8. So the headline is simply incorrect. \n\nWhy does this matter? It matters because this pandemic is so heavily politicized. When you put out stories like this, it provides ammunition to those who are trying to spin alternative narratives.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":485,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1267311335148097536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266962984854712300,"conversation_id":"1266962984854712321","created_at":1590902489000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"05:21:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"I'm heartbroken by the endemic state violence against people of color in America, but unsure how to best lend support in the short term. I can continue to contribute financially to organizations that strive for racial justice, but that's longer term. What should I be doing today?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":197,"retweets_count":99,"likes_count":1215,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266962984854712321","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555343275872300,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805299000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"16. In conclusion, I don’t see that this paper provides compelling evidence that immune response increases with symptom severity. It may well be true, and perhaps the raw data even support this strongly. But as presented, we simply cannot tell.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555343275872257","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555342395039700,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805299000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"15. Does the pattern arise because people with higher SSI scores have larger immune responses?\n\nOr does everyone who gets sick has the same immune response, but people with higher scores are more likely to have had the disease in the first place?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555342395039744","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555341472325600,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805299000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"14. In the Brooklyn COVID paper, showing the confidence intervals around the mean obscures something critical to interpreting the data: the size of the IgG=0 class and its role in determining the trend observed. Without knowing this, we can’t distinguish two hypotheses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555341472325632","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555339001880600,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805298000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"12. But these have to be confidence intervals around the mean, rather than instead of uncertainty ranges for an individual observation. Why does this matter? The former provide a misleading sense of the spread of data.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555339001880576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555335357034500,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805298000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"10. Moreover it is not obvious to me how these 240 patients were selected for inclusion. If randomly, little surprise that showing symptoms correlates w/ seropositivity, and this tells us next to nothing about the role of disease severity in generating a powerful immune response.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555335357034497","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555330399330300,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805296000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"7. Overall, the study is consistent with other results suggesting high incidence in the Brooklyn area, but without addressing the sampling bias issues I do not think this study allows provides strong evidence against incidence in the 20-30% range.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555330399330304","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555328595767300,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805296000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"5. Finding that 47% of those at a Brooklyn urgent care clinic have had COVID does not imply that 47% of the Brooklyn population have had the disease. It would be interesting to know what fraction of those with no history of ILI were IgG positive, but we are not told.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555328595767296","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555327752753200,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805296000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"4. Another is that the participants all presented at an urgent care clinic. With an IgG test, we don’t expect positive results until several days after onset of symptoms. But during a pandemic, many visits may be associated with proximal or downstream disease consequences.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555327752753152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266555326871990300,"conversation_id":"1266555325093523458","created_at":1590805296000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"02:21:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":3238448948,"username":"ct_bergstrom","name":"Carl T. Bergstrom","place":"","tweet":"3. One is that we are not told anything about the sample population. It would be useful to know more about the demographics of those included in the study.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1266555326871990272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"3238448948","username":"CT_Bergstrom"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
