{"id":1262863886287585300,"conversation_id":"1262855547289767937","created_at":1589925188000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:53:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I'm looking forward to analyzing more sequence, and things should get easier as SNP (and other) variation builds up. But all that variation is the result of the growing pandemic. I wish it had never had the chance to accumulate it 8/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262863886287585280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262857907441414100,"conversation_id":"1262855547289767937","created_at":1589923762000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:29:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"when working with these trees we need to think carefully about, among other things, sampling - there are a lot of places in the world which are very poorly sampled and if you've not looked there, you have no idea what is circulating 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262857907441414151","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262857596664451000,"conversation_id":"1262855547289767937","created_at":1589923688000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:28:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"What does this mean for the pandemic? Well the global diversity of the virus is growing, as we would expect as the population of virus grows, this is not surprising. However there's still not a lot of it. Which makes life difficult 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262857596664451079","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262856150850166800,"conversation_id":"1262855547289767937","created_at":1589923343000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"21:22:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"But this runs into challenges when all your genomes are really closely related. A lot can rest on a single difference in a sequence of ~30,000 A C G and Ts (OK 'U's strictly speaking for an RNA virus 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262856150850166787","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262798921706995700,"conversation_id":"1262797317306007564","created_at":1589909699000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"17:34:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"However it is also deeply concerning because patients already in hospital for other problems are naturally more likely to have comorbidities and be vulnerable to more severe infection. Any infection presents a risk to other patients and staff 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262798921706995713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262798397372760000,"conversation_id":"1262797317306007564","created_at":1589909574000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"17:32:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"It also, according to the reporting, was particularly driven by one trust with poor infection control. Mostly the rates seem far lower, but still high enough to be concerning. Preventing transmission is essential throughout healthcare, and for patients as well as staff 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262798397372760067","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262797816470143000,"conversation_id":"1262797317306007564","created_at":1589909435000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"17:30:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"At one level this matters because it means that they were not *hospitalized as a result of their infection*, which has an impact on estimates of things like the risk of hospitalization per infection, and the range of severity. So that is important 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1262797816470142977","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261465958977138700,"conversation_id":"1261440704255057920","created_at":1589591896000,"date":"2020-05-16","time":"01:18:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Congratulations. And great respect for working with your country and community. Will do whatever I can to help","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1261465958977138688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260769732552204300,"conversation_id":"1260747468515442688","created_at":1589425902000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"03:11:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I feel for you. Any indication you have to get good data on Pakistan would be helpful","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260769732552204289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260766950495486000,"conversation_id":"1260763085712822277","created_at":1589425239000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"03:00:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Now to put this into a little context – it takes time for immunity to develop. And continued transmission in these places will have likely increased the proportion immune, as well as the numbers of those dead 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260766950495485952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260766036212748300,"conversation_id":"1260763085712822277","created_at":1589425021000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"02:57:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"importantly “no differences in seroprevalence between children and middle age adults” which is relevant to the question of opening schools. This yields a similar IFR to the French study, and the rough one from NYC 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260766036212748288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260764779666432000,"conversation_id":"1260763085712822277","created_at":1589424722000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"02:52:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Unsurprisingly given what we know the risk of death is much higher in some groups. The infection fatality ratio is different from the case fatality ratio. We often tend to identify cases on the bases of symptoms, so we miss the milder ones. The IFR account for this 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260764779666432000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260764360714182700,"conversation_id":"1260763085712822277","created_at":1589424622000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"02:50:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The results are compatible with existing data from France on serology, even if we would like to have better data on serology all told. They point to an infection fatality ratio of  0.7% (95% CrI: 0.4–1.0). Ie between 1 in 100, and 1 in 200 chance of death following infection 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260764360714182657","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260763285659451400,"conversation_id":"1260763085712822277","created_at":1589424365000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"02:46:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"France has seen considerably more than 20,000 deaths so far. We are at a point where we can start to estimate the numbers of actual infections – including those not picked up in case counts. This paper does that... 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260763285659451392","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1260751524034162700,"conversation_id":"1260747468515442688","created_at":1589421561000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"01:59:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"i am sorry to hear that. Crowded streets are probably better than large crowds indoors... but both will tick transmission up","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1260751524034162690","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259956626519449600,"conversation_id":"1259955676379525121","created_at":1589232043000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"21:20:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So the maximum number attributable to economic damage (and not say... undercounting actual covid deaths) is 23k-19k or about 4000. Which is a much smaller number than 19000, if that needed pointing out","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259956626519449601","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259674700382339000,"conversation_id":"1259672460162732040","created_at":1589164826000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"02:40:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Then suddenly a (mystifyingly) scaled 1-5 response. With a basis in hope but not reality. Look back at that initial equation.\n\nTalk seriously to people. You are going to have to before this is over. Get used to it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259674700382339072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259673609737572400,"conversation_id":"1259672460162732040","created_at":1589164566000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"02:36:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The following tweets talk reasonably about the way the current R should impact interventions. They say nothing about how R(t) should be calculated. Can I hazard they might be ignorant/don't care?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259673609737572354","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259673052360642600,"conversation_id":"1259672460162732040","created_at":1589164433000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"02:33:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I looked at this equation in good faith and confusion for hours before I suddenly realized it was not describing anything in math, it was attempting to gift the authority of mathematics to a political position. More fool me.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259673052360642560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259672916825985000,"conversation_id":"1259672460162732040","created_at":1589164401000,"date":"2020-05-11","time":"02:33:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Starting point is to understand that the reproductive number R, which measures how many new cases are kicking off, changes depending on how many contacts are made and how many of those contacts are immune. That tweet is meaningless to anyone who actually knows infectious disease","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259672916825985029","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259625848333840400,"conversation_id":"1259625130512318464","created_at":1589153179000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"23:26:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I will also point out that estimating the current effective reproductive number is not easy. Much more testing is needed to detect changes that could point to a coming surge","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":23,"retweets_count":143,"likes_count":805,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259625848333840386","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259095591071744000,"conversation_id":"1259095591071744001","created_at":1589026756000,"date":"2020-05-09","time":"12:19:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I started writing an oped \"The winter lingered. One weekend there was snow on the ground, and the next I wandered the yard barefoot while tending the grill. Seasons can change quickly\"\n\nAnd they can change back quickly. It's snowing here. Feel like there's a message somewhere","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1259095591071744001","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257788732121456600,"conversation_id":"1257787764067774464","created_at":1588715176000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"21:46:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Does the deletion affect the virus in its ability to cause disease or transmit? \"further experiments are needed to determine the functional consequences of the ORF7a 62 deletion.\" <- that's how a scientist talks 4/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257788732121456641","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257788420073586700,"conversation_id":"1257787764067774464","created_at":1588715102000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"21:45:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"But it was *an individual infection* which is one of the more than a million in the US. It's not taking over. And unless it is more transmissible, it sure as heck won't 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257788420073586695","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257788012374737000,"conversation_id":"1257787764067774464","created_at":1588715005000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"21:43:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"the study found a deletion, a type of mutation in which a chunk of genetic material gets lost. These happen, and the paper is interesting in that it shows they can happen within an individual infection 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257788012374736896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257775932624035800,"conversation_id":"1257771860332285954","created_at":1588712125000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"20:55:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"But more importantly *any vaccine will be tested to see if it provides protection against circulating strains*. In the absence of selection from a vaccine, the virus would have to be awfully lucky to have landed on the escape mutation for all these vaccines so early 6/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257775932624035840","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257775238206705700,"conversation_id":"1257771860332285954","created_at":1588711959000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"20:52:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There is no reason to believe a single non-synonymous SNP will have any impact on imaginary drugs with unknown mechanisms of action. Nor really for vaccines. In the first place it may not have a big impact on immunity 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257775238206705665","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257774519739179000,"conversation_id":"1257771860332285954","created_at":1588711788000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"20:49:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"When you are reading about these new 'strains' remember that there's no advantage to being different at the moment.  There's a big pool of susceptibles and there's only physical distancing to limit transmission. Not enough population immunity to generate much selection 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257774519739179014","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257773659416133600,"conversation_id":"1257771860332285954","created_at":1588711583000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"20:46:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The reason is that if the immune system recognizes the most common form of the virus, there's an advantage in being different enough to not be recognized by natural or vaccine derived antibodies 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257773659416133634","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257773179801649200,"conversation_id":"1257771860332285954","created_at":1588711469000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"20:44:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Viruses and other pathogens can and do evolve to evade our immune systems, and this can make it hard to develop a vaccine. This is why we need a new vaccine for the flu each year 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257773179801649153","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257422136832069600,"conversation_id":"1257418219096342535","created_at":1588627773000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"21:29:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"New infections accumulate: on assembly lines, among essential workers, in nursing homes and in households. Fewer than there would have been, which is good! But not none 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257422136832069636","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257421770216353800,"conversation_id":"1257418219096342535","created_at":1588627686000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"21:28:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So that experience is not a good one to build on. Instead the interventions in other places have allowed transmission to occur, but at a slower rate, and from a big powderkeg of transmission chains that have built up 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257421770216353797","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257421493899858000,"conversation_id":"1257418219096342535","created_at":1588627620000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"21:27:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Now, the idea that there is a sharp 'peak' and a precipitous decline is largely built on the experience in Wuhan. The interventions there were on a larger scale than in the places we've mentioned so far, and probably also at an earlier stage in the epidemic curve 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257421493899857920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257419589228605400,"conversation_id":"1257418219096342535","created_at":1588627166000,"date":"2020-05-04","time":"21:19:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"What people mean by 'lockdown' varies a lot from place to place, and it is a mistake to assume that the consequences for transmission will be the same. It's not calling it a lockdown that matters, rather it's what the lockdown actually entails 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1257419589228605441","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256431909330133000,"conversation_id":"1256431909330133000","created_at":1588391685000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:54:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"A few comments about the preprint I was just tweeting about\n\n1) if you read all the thread and agree please RT the whole thing. News needs to get out.\n\n2) I first heard of it from a reporter. And reporters who have a nose to check stuff like this, are good reporters. We need them","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256431909330133000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256429472947077000,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588391104000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:45:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"coda: if anyone who does not know what it is already googles 'non synonymous SNP'  I will be delighted. There's a helluva lot of knowledge out there and epidemiology is less complicated than you think. And we will need citizen epidemiologists in the pandemic 👊🏽","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":52,"retweets_count":66,"likes_count":636,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256429472947077122","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256428827707945000,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390950000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:42:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This is undoubtedly a complicated issue, and one we will learn more about. But right now there are better ways of fighting the pandemic than worrying about different strains defined by one non synonymous SNP 14/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":53,"likes_count":327,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256428827707944963","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256428176043098000,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390795000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:39:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"WA was alerted early on through outbreaks in healthcare. It put in serious controls at local and state levels. The orange variant arises, and is followed by the blue (coming in from the east coast and Europe) yet both decline at roughly the same rate 13/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":45,"likes_count":276,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256428176043098112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256427135369187300,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390547000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:35:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The increase in the ‘blue’ variant may well reflect a population bottleneck, in which it happens to be the one that gets into the (relatively inattentive) European population and then spreads like wildfire. That's what I *think* happened (<- note opinion not 'science') 11/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":253,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256427135369187334","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256426297741508600,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390347000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:32:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"By the way that Iran genome is unsurprisingly v close to the root (don’t use time trees for that!). I believe there has been quite a large outbreak in Iran. Knowing more about it including genomes would be good 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":233,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256426297741508610","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256425672173654000,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390198000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:29:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Meanwhile, China’s extreme interventions appear to have squashed what remained in China and stemmed the dissemination of the other parts of the early viral diversity (w strong caveat that there are far fewer genomes from regions that are not Europe or the US) 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":250,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256425672173654016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256425475863392300,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390151000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:29:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The blue mutation is already found in close to 100% of the cases of the early outbreak in North Italy. This might be selection. It might well also be chance, the lucky strain that got out of China. Most outbreaks around the world descend  from Europe now 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":66,"likes_count":278,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256425475863392256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256424881719304200,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588390009000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:26:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The paper distinguishes between orange and blue variants (you don’t need to be tracking the exact mutation or character state for you wonderful nerds following) the orange is the old one, the blue is the more recent one 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":37,"likes_count":218,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256424881719304193","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256424336048697300,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588389879000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:24:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"by that, I mean this variant might have been lucky and got introduced to places outside Wuhan and different approaches to social distancing early on. It's not about the virus, it's the environment and the opportunities for transmission 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":51,"likes_count":311,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256424336048697345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256423414107115500,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588389659000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:20:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"We need to distinguish between selection, in which a variant becomes more common because it leaves more descendants, and founder effects in which a variant becomes more common because it was fortunate rolling the dice 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":62,"likes_count":371,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256423414107115520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256423226244247600,"conversation_id":"1256422856436613126","created_at":1588389615000,"date":"2020-05-02","time":"03:20:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Major observation: a specific mutation in the spike protein of the virus has been in a higher fraction of cases as the pandemic has worn on in multiple places. Given the role of the spike protein in entry of the virus to cells this might be reasonable. Now for the cold water 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":50,"likes_count":279,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256423226244247553","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256342154743447600,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588370286000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:58:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And the worst thing - we don't even know for sure how much immunity is generated by infection, and how it varies by age or the severity of disease or a lot of other stuff. So yeah, herd immunity is a thing. How you get it matters 10/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256342154743447552","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256341692409696300,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588370175000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:56:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And you know the worst thing, dead people can't even contribute to herd immunity, because the way it works is the virus cannot transmit to a contact who is already immune, and this protects the population. Dead people don't make contacts. 9/n (nearly over!)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256341692409696256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256340952588976000,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588369999000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:53:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"To date there have been more than 1000 #COVID19 deaths in CA, CT, FL, GA, IL, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OH and PA.\n\nMore than 250 in AL, AZ, CO, MN, MO, NC, RI, SC, TX, VA, WA and WI.\n\nThere have been 18610 deaths in the state of NY *alone*\n\nThis is the cost 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256340952588976132","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256338222197682200,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588369348000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:42:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line, due to VERY RARE adverse side effects it was estimated \"Vaccine use in the US population would kill 250 to 1,000 people. If someone has HIV and doesn't know it, God knows what would happen.\" - Don Francis 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256338222197682176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256336337101131800,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588368899000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:34:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"As a result, many people have never received a smallpox vaccine. There was just no need to vaccinate once the virus was no longer a risk. But like I said smallpox is not wholly gone from the earth - samples remain in labs with *very* tight security 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256336337101131776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256334400100298800,"conversation_id":"1256333492754935808","created_at":1588368437000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"21:27:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Way back in the early 2000s there was concern following 9/11 about the potential for bioterrorism. In particular, the possibility of a deliberate release of smallpox. Smallpox is caused by an extraordinarily virulent virus, it is also extinct in the wild 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1256334400100298753","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255498532922044400,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588169150000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"14:05:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Even if airborne transmission *can* happen, it doesn’t mean it is the dominant mode of transmission or the major contributor to dynamics. The evidence we have now is still that close contacts are important. Will revisit this as the evidence evolves /end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255498532922044416","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255497219958079500,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588168837000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"14:00:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This should put concerns about the potential for airborne transmission in well ventilated areas or outdoors into perspective. It also suggests the importance of maintaining ventilation while caring in the household setting 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":43,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255497219958079488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255496688468451300,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588168711000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"13:58:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"From the abstract “Levels of airborne SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the majority of public areas was undetectable except in two areas prone to crowding” this is from Wuhan, in hospitals, in Feb/March. It illustrates the value of distancing ie avoiding crowding 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255496688468451330","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255496337384235000,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588168627000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"13:57:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Now this study looked at 2 hospitals, where we expect to find a relatively large number of infectious people. I'm going to go on to think about what it might mean for the non-healthcare environment 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255496337384235021","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255495900522315800,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588168523000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"13:55:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The concentrations were elevated in toilet areas. This suggests shedding in stool (which we know happens) coupled with aerosols generated by flushing – again we don’t know significance for transmission 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255495900522315777","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255495495545491500,"conversation_id":"1255495407314120704","created_at":1588168426000,"date":"2020-04-29","time":"13:53:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Importantly RNA is not the same as infectious virus. This is not itself evidence for airborne transmission (as the paper is clear). However because particles in an aerosol are smaller than droplets and can hang around for a long period of time, it means it bears investigation 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":62,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255495495545491456","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255108268055310300,"conversation_id":"1255102994166800384","created_at":1588076104000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"12:15:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"My best guess at the CFR right now is *about* 1/200 (based on serology from NY and other hotspots) and much higher than that in those at risk. Anything very different from that would be extraordinary, and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence 6/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255108268055310336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255105893894586400,"conversation_id":"1255102994166800384","created_at":1588075538000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"12:05:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"It is not enough to say the CFR is different because \"NYC has a high population density etc\". We expect a pandemic to start off in population centers (absent distancing measures) and then filter through to smaller towns in a stochastic fashion 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255105893894586368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1255103794964320300,"conversation_id":"1255102994166800384","created_at":1588075038000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"11:57:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I've been clear from the start - while knowing the true mortality rate will be important, it is not necessary when you are deciding on whether to take action in the face of the pandemic 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1255103794964320256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254974732958601200,"conversation_id":"1254973780465799168","created_at":1588044267000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"03:24:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"among other things there's no denominator in tests done. I'm not gonna go dig it out (because I need to stop working and go to bed) but it is easily available and is vital to interpreting test results","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1254974732958601224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254968655802183700,"conversation_id":"1254968655802183680","created_at":1588042818000,"date":"2020-04-28","time":"03:00:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Apropos of nothin in particular - the way certain people seem to think their dramas matter against the backdrop of the pandemic <<sigh>>","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1254968655802183680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254536727433224200,"conversation_id":"1254481416689197057","created_at":1587939838000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"22:23:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Yes. Numbers of swabs taken one of the factors in test sensitivity (depending on the test)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1254536727433224195","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254429870622417000,"conversation_id":"1254428441371381761","created_at":1587914361000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"15:19:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"In contrast with those policies, this would involve small numbers of volunteers, and have extensive ethical oversight. Worth thinking carefully about once we have a decent vaccine candidate 3/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1254429870622416896","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254429299962249200,"conversation_id":"1254428441371381761","created_at":1587914225000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"15:17:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Obviously this must be voluntary. The societal benefits could be large. I note that the apparent policy of some governments seems to have been to allow low risk age groups to become infected to build immunity (sometimes while protecting older age groups, sometimes not) 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1254429299962249217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253737934890700800,"conversation_id":"1253727347792056322","created_at":1587749391000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"17:29:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"We don't explicitly look at what happens to the patients who become infected, but we know that comorbidities are associated with worse outcomes. So avoiding this is important. 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253737934890700803","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253737933980536800,"conversation_id":"1253727347792056322","created_at":1587749391000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"17:29:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This supports the importance of adequate and appropriate PPE *throughout* healthcare, and assuming everyone might be asymptomatic unless shown otherwise. This is well understood in some places, but not all and in some of those places supplies are short 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253737933980536833","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253737926699221000,"conversation_id":"1253727347792056322","created_at":1587749389000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"17:29:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This is a stochastic simulation of transmission among healthcare workers and patients. The virus arrives through individuals in either category who do not know they are infected. We do not explicitly model the outbreak in the general community 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253737926699220993","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539663698104300,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702120000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:22:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"this is infection control. Just applied to a family. In time it will relax. Right now we should be all aiming to avoid getting sick and straining healthcare. The pandemic is hitting some places now, and it will hit others later. Don't panic. Do prepare 8/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539663698104320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539659419996200,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702119000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:21:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"since the start of march we have been trying to maintain our home as a green zone - where we can be pretty sure the virus is not present. Everywhere outside is yellow or amber. We're not sure and take precautions. Red zones are places you are pretty sure it is present 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539659419996162","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539658476200000,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702118000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:21:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"the key has been, throughout, to reduce the risk. Not to eliminate it. we don't disinfect everything that enters, much that is not perishable can be left a couple days for possible contamination to diminish. And keep washing your hands through the day and you're golden 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539658476199938","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539657503170600,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702118000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:21:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I cough into the crook of my arm. I also try to avoid touching my face. If you wear glasses or have a pen on your desk you can scratch an itch with them. If you've seen me in a longer interview, I've probably done it. I have also accidentally drawn on my face. Multiple times 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539657503170560","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539656588722200,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702118000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:21:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"throughout the day I wash my hands when I get the chance. i don't set a timer. I just think here's an opportunity. I do though regularly during food preparation 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539656588722178","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253539655712215000,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587702118000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:21:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"every time I enter the house I wash my hands for 20 seconds and change my clothes. I'f I've been outside a long tome, I wash my hands and take a shower 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253539655712215040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253534756668661800,"conversation_id":"1253534756668661760","created_at":1587700950000,"date":"2020-04-24","time":"04:02:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"For all those who ask what i am doing in the pandemic, in terms of infection control, a short thread 1/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":53,"likes_count":125,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253534756668661760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253442850789916700,"conversation_id":"1253441589646589952","created_at":1587679038000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"21:57:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So if you are going to intervene, doing it early matters. It means testing. Hopefully then we can do *more mild* interventions to gain control while accepting things won't be completely 'normal'. I think that is the way to maximize economic activity during the pandemic 3/3","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253442850789916672","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253441966597120000,"conversation_id":"1253441589646589952","created_at":1587678827000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"21:53:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Table mountain is what you get when you do less intense intervention, after allowing community transmission to introduce it to a lot of places (inc households). Transmission slows, but proceeds apace in the contact networks that remain. Links are sparser, but not absent 2/3","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253441966597120002","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253132692381675500,"conversation_id":"1253111998990163969","created_at":1587605090000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"01:24:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The problem is that those things do come with economic consequences. I’ve got an inbox full of people telling me I hate the economy. I don’t, duh, but I do want to ensure the pandemic doesn’t take healthcare as a starter before moving onto the economy as the main course","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1253132692381675526","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942954815242200,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559853000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I believe that there are quite huge numbers of uncounted cases, and much mild disease. I just don’t think it’s as much as these studies claim. There is a real answer out there, and we are still waiting for it #serosurveynow, but make it a good one 10/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":["#serosurveynow"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942954815242240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942953980612600,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559853000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I don’t know what the reasons for that are. Maybe wishful thinking. But the virus will carry on regardless. It doesn't care about your study, whether it is well designed or not.  Remember nature cannot be fooled 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942953980612608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942953087144000,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559853000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Finally we cannot escape the fact that the poorly designed studies and the way they are reported all skew in one direction – the one which says there is more immunity in the population for less cost in lives. This is dangerous 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942953087143937","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942952248287200,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559853000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There’s a simple smell test here – we know that outbreaks of this result in severe strain to healthcare. If a study reports large amounts of population immunity without much disease, we’ve got to ask why the pandemic is magically different there from other places 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942952248287235","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942949413007400,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559852000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"In contrast smaller studies in places currently with little covid activity, like CA, will struggle because the signal in the first place is expected to be weaker. Smaller numbers are hard to estimate accurately. Biased sampling through social media won't help either 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942949413007360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942947701620700,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559851000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"That assures you of something important, that there will have been enough exposure for a random sample to capture people who were asymptomatic, mildly ill, severely ill (and let’s not forget the dead) in numbers such that we can accurately estimate the proportion of each 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942947701620736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942945986150400,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559851000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"First we need to know that the tests can tell the difference between someone who has had covid-19 and someone who has had one of the other betacoronaviruses. Getting this wrong is bad for understanding immunity in the population, and disastrous for an individual 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942945986150401","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252942945138991000,"conversation_id":"1252942945138991104","created_at":1587559851000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"12:50:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"A brief morning thread on the emerging results from antibody testing. There is a lot of interest in these as being able to nail down how many people might have been infected already and have some immunity, and the true range of severity 1/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":108,"likes_count":170,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252942945138991104","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252585192511934500,"conversation_id":"1252585192511934467","created_at":1587474556000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"13:09:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So today I am going to be mostly working on an NIH progress report which is overdue thanks to the pandemic. See y'all later","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252585192511934467","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252424523724419000,"conversation_id":"1252424523724419072","created_at":1587436250000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:30:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Pandemic news. I've still not said 'duh' on live television\n\nyet","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252424523724419072","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252421789918982100,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587435598000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:19:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"coda: uncertainties include how well the various tests work,  how much immunity they generate and exactly where everywhere is on its epidemic curve. Other than that, peachy","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":47,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252421789918982149","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252421261503762400,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587435472000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:17:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Rather than obsessing about the exact number of asymptomatic infections, we need to keep focusing on how to minimize new infections, and refine what we've been doing in terms of distancing to help maintain ourselves and our society during the pandemic 8/fin","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":93,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252421261503762438","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252420424043917300,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587435272000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:14:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"NYC has already seen more deaths from this than you would expect for a flu season in which *every man woman and child* was infected. And it's slowing (thank goodness), but not stopping 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252420424043917320","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252419769149427700,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587435116000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:11:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"so the point is - this is a virus that can crash health care. Let's stop that happening. We can think about how many people were infected and never knew later, right now let's focus on those who *absolutely* know they're infected 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":86,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252419769149427713","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252419337295560700,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587435013000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:10:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The point is what happens when the virus is given free reign. This has not happened in CA. We have seen it in places from italy to NYC as folks have scrambled to respond. There, it's s thing which will crash healthcare 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252419337295560705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252418822440579000,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587434890000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:08:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"point 2 - I actually think it is plausible that it is. I think there's a quite enormous amount of undetected transmission and immunity but that is emphatically *not* the point 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":50,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252418822440579079","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252418429581025300,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587434797000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:06:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"it is suggesting that more than 4% have been exposed to the pandemic virus, but it remains somewhat hard to know what that means. Point 1 - are you sure that is SARS-CoV-2 or one of the milquetoast circulating betacoronas? 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252418429581025281","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252417934237905000,"conversation_id":"1252415652393971718","created_at":1587434678000,"date":"2020-04-21","time":"02:04:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"so we've been waiting for good serology for like, forever. It's somehow amazingly still not here. What does that mean? well this antibody study is a serology study 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252417934237904897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252261624653766700,"conversation_id":"1252261361029132288","created_at":1587397411000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"15:43:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Those who can apply including those who are self-employed, freelancers, independent contractors, part-time workers, claimants with insufficient work history to qualify for benefits, and claimants who have been laid off from churches and other religious institutions","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252261624653766656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252019087087227000,"conversation_id":"1251631023902900224","created_at":1587339586000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"23:39:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"How to protect the vulnerable should have been at the top of everyone’s list for months. Infection control will help (and from previous tweets I know you’re clued up about that)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252019087087226880","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252009893978157000,"conversation_id":"1252009893978157057","created_at":1587337394000,"date":"2020-04-19","time":"23:03:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And... we just lost power. Beautiful day, unlike the windstorm last week and then suddenly out of nowhere it’s gone","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1252009893978157057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
