{"id":1273662651089014800,"conversation_id":"1273659736760737793","created_at":1592499814000,"date":"2020-06-18","time":"17:03:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"It's not even the first such controversy over the pandemic, a paper on phylogenetic networks of the virus was similarly contributed, after being reviewed by two people who had no experience with viral phylogenies 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1273662651089014786","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273660758027616300,"conversation_id":"1273659736760737793","created_at":1592499362000,"date":"2020-06-18","time":"16:56:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Some journals allow certain people the privilege of 'contributing' papers. At PNAS, this means members of the National Academy of Sciences. While the work gets reviewed, they choose who reviews it. It's easy to see how this can be open to abuse 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1273660758027616256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273110462033510400,"conversation_id":"1273109213074599937","created_at":1592368162000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"04:29:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Now the same, good (IMO) study finds dexamethasone has benefit in severely ill patients. This is unambiguously good news.  It’s a steroid, it likely acts to reduce the highly active inflammatory response in those patients 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1273110462033510405","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273109553626919000,"conversation_id":"1273109213074599937","created_at":1592367945000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"04:25:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Firstly – understanding the surgisphere debacle is relevant to publishing practices especially in the ferment of a pandemic, but doesn’t itself say much about whether hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) works for #COVID19 or doesn’t. There's been more data on that 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":6,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1273109553626918912","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1273109213074600000,"conversation_id":"1273109213074599937","created_at":1592367864000,"date":"2020-06-17","time":"04:24:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Some very brief (It’s late!) comments on the recent results on hydroxychloroquine and dexamethasone 🧵1/?","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1273109213074599937","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272892096677122000,"conversation_id":"1272888259367108608","created_at":1592316099000,"date":"2020-06-16","time":"14:01:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Heterogeneities can reduce the fraction that needs immunity to limit transmission. When it comes to a respiratory virus that transmits presymptomatically that's hard if not impossible. IMO it might reduce the threshold, but not to the extent it's a get out of jail free card 6/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272892096677122048","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272286302562549800,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592171667000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:54:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The principles of risk communication have been around for a while, which makes it all the more depressing they've been cast to the winds so many times in recent months when they've been needed. Let's rediscover them - they'll be useful going forward 10/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272286302562549760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272285521948090400,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592171481000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:51:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"Five pitfalls to avoid\n1. Mixed messages from multiple experts\n2. Information released late\n3. Paternalistic attitudes\n4. Not countering rumors and myths in real-time\n5. Public power struggles and confusion\"\n\nOh dear... \n9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272285521948090368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272284934980370400,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592171341000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:49:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And check this out! There's also five pitfalls to avoid! I am the public will have experienced *none* of these in official communications during the early pandemic?! (👈🏽possible sarcasm) 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":19,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272284934980370433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272284308967952400,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592171191000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:46:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"6) Show Respect: Respectful communication is particularly important when people feel vulnerable. Respectful communication promotes cooperation and rapport.\" yes it does. Been more forthcoming from some quarters than others 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272284308967952386","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272283875390025700,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592171088000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:44:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"5) Promote Action: Giving people meaningful things to do calms anxiety, helps restore order, and promotes some sense of control\" I've not noticed much of this, but it might include a positive approach to distancing where it is necessary 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272283875390025728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272283298010730500,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592170950000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:42:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"4) Express Empathy: Crises create harm, and the suffering should be acknowledged in words. Addressing what people are feeling, and the challenges they face, builds trust and rapport.\" I think we can spot the difference between those expressing empathy and the rest 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272283298010730502","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272282676922323000,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592170802000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:40:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"3) Be Credible: Honesty and truthfulness should not be compromised during crises.\" 👈🏽 no comment 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272282676922322950","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272282398567399400,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592170736000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:38:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"2) Be Right: Accuracy establishes credibility. Information can include what is known, what is not known, and what is being done to fill in the gaps.\" er... It will disappear of its own accord? We've got lots of PPE? We are well prepared? Anyone can get a test? 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272282398567399425","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272281847695921200,"conversation_id":"1272281203811516422","created_at":1592170605000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"21:36:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Ok start with \"The Six Principles of CERC\". \"1) Be First:\nCrises are time-sensitive. Communicating information quickly is crucial. For members of the public, the first source of information often becomes the preferred source\" hmmm not sure this has really worked out well 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272281847695921152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272145288682262500,"conversation_id":"1272144428136792064","created_at":1592138046000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"12:34:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Among the many advantages of prompt action to increase distancing as a surge builds is less peak demand on healthcare, meaning it can carry out more of its normal functions. Those places that have not yet experienced a wave of #COVID19 should learn from those places that have 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1272145288682262528","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270389883887145000,"conversation_id":"1270386906593886208","created_at":1591719525000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"16:18:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This explains in large part why the pandemic has been so hard to control, and also why interventions that work whether or not a person has symptoms are the effective ones. We're going to see more transmission going forward, so bear it in mind 6/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1270389883887144961","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270389508341719000,"conversation_id":"1270386906593886208","created_at":1591719436000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"16:17:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This is why I think 'unwitting transmission' is a better way of communicating it. It is unarguable that this is a major contributor to the pandemic spread, even if few infections always remain completely asymptomatic 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1270389508341719044","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270389063372222500,"conversation_id":"1270386906593886208","created_at":1591719330000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"16:15:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There's some confusion between 'asymptomatic' and 'presymptomatic'. There's also the fact that #COVID19 presents with lots of different symptoms beyond dry cough and fever, and so it's not clear what is meant exactly 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1270389063372222465","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1270346279365890000,"conversation_id":"1270346111774076928","created_at":1591709129000,"date":"2020-06-09","time":"13:25:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Especially given the volume of IMO contentious talk about masks offering a 'false sense of security' as an argument against their use","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1270346279365890048","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269638270767583200,"conversation_id":"1269629621177331712","created_at":1591540327000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"14:32:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Finally, let's not fall into fatalism. The future of the pandemic is yet to be written. While further tragedies are sadly inevitable, we can still work to minimize them. After all, we ought to be in the business of saving lives, not justifying deaths 11/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269638270767583233","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269636691846992000,"conversation_id":"1269629621177331712","created_at":1591539950000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"14:25:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"If you drag your feet in preventing or worse, encourage transmission in the community you place everyone at risk. The more transmission, the more severe disease and death (including in younger people). This should not be hard to understand. 10/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269636691846991872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269636038017855500,"conversation_id":"1269629621177331712","created_at":1591539794000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"14:23:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"As I ssid, it's hard to wholly isolate those risk from a virus of this sort. So the best way to protect them is to keep community transmission as low as possible. That is the single most important way to minimize the threat, with enhanced PPE and working conditions for staff 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269636038017855488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269631602566594600,"conversation_id":"1269629621177331712","created_at":1591538737000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"14:05:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"\"a key route for infection was opened up by an NHS decision taken in mid-March ... to transfer 15,000 patients out of hospitals and back into the community, including an unspecified number of patients to care homes. These... included some who had tested positive for COVID-19\" 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269631602566594561","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269630084522147800,"conversation_id":"1269629621177331712","created_at":1591538375000,"date":"2020-06-07","time":"13:59:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"For instance, address the pay and working conditions of the staff who work in those homes. And ensure there is adequate PPE and training in its use 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269630084522147841","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269251420739514400,"conversation_id":"1269245173365645312","created_at":1591448094000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"12:54:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There’s been much hunting for a silver bullet when it comes to #covid19. I think its better to think of a dozen aluminum arrows, all of which do a little on their own but have an effect in combination. Too often we have let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Let’s stop 7/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269251420739514369","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269250675415961600,"conversation_id":"1269245173365645312","created_at":1591447917000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"12:51:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"In short, once again we are having to figure out how to fight the pandemic as we go along. Masks likely have a role, especially if they limit superspreading events, but in combination with other things rather than on their own. They don’t substitute for distancing for eg 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269250675415961606","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1269247702409322500,"conversation_id":"1269245173365645312","created_at":1591447208000,"date":"2020-06-06","time":"12:40:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And all this ‘if properly used’ - where are the plans to train the vulnerable in the use of higher grade medical masks? Concern is often expressed over false sense of security, more often touching face etc 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1269247702409322498","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268605876069335000,"conversation_id":"1268604936004173824","created_at":1591294185000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"18:09:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Then later, “Of the 17 seropositive returnees…16 individuals who were seropositive had been staying in Wuhan”\nSo again it’s mostly Wuhan, not Hubei. And we know that there were few deaths outside the city. 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268605876069335040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268605472937894000,"conversation_id":"1268604936004173824","created_at":1591294088000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"18:08:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"But earlier in the results “665 serum samples were collected from 452 returnees from Hubei province (of which 364 [80·5%] were from Wuhan)” \n\nSo it’s not a random sample of Hubei (or likely even Wuhan but let’s not get distracted) 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268605472937893889","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268605330176573400,"conversation_id":"1268604936004173824","created_at":1591294054000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"18:07:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"First “Among 452 returnees evacuated from Hubei province in March, 2020, the seroprevalence was 4%, with the majority (88%) being confirmed by microneutralisation assay.” 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268605330176573447","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268380729366413300,"conversation_id":"1268319468616286211","created_at":1591240505000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"03:15:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Taken together with evidence from other places that have suffered a much higher rate of infection, this indicates that we are still nowhere near ‘herd immunity’ anywhere.\n\nI wish I could appear more optimistic. Reality has got in the way. 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268380729366413314","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268379760104784000,"conversation_id":"1268319468616286211","created_at":1591240274000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"03:11:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The seroprevalence in returnees to HK from Hubei is reported as 4%. Bear in mind that those traveling from Hubei to HK are not a random sample of Wuhan, and Hubei is not the same thing as Wuhan 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":12,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268379760104783872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268379503891538000,"conversation_id":"1268319468616286211","created_at":1591240213000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"03:10:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"OK digging in. First from this and much other work there is no evidence for a large amount of population immunity after the initial surge. At some point the snake oil folks going on about that oughta drift off and find something else to talk about. (I know, who am I kidding?) 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268379503891537926","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268150280178319400,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591185562000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:59:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And all this for only ~7% immune. As we refine pandemic response with data (and we should for reasons of sustainability) we ought to remember some wise advice I once received... \n\nIf you start out too clever by half, you risk ending up too dumb squared.\n\nLet's not do that 11/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":92,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268150280178319360","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268148930082193400,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591185240000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:54:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I should note that we are still at the start of this pandemic, and the full accounting of how well different approaches to it work in the long run. But we don't know enough right now to be so cute. And as a result Sweden has ended up as the control arm in the shutdown trial 10/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268148930082193410","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268148173740167200,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591185060000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:51:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The failure to in some cases, even try to protect those most at risk of the pandemic is shameful. But in Sweden, and briefly the UK, there has been the notion that a shutdown can be dodged by being clever. By outwitting the pandemic 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268148173740167168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268146599471038500,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591184684000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:44:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"If you are going to not work to exclude the virus, but allow it in to prey upon your people, you should work to protect the most vulnerable. I've said it time and again, we *knew* this already, both from experience with other respiratory viruses and early data from Wuhan 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":48,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268146599471038466","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268146068430229500,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591184558000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:42:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Sweden reported the highest per capita mortality in the world in the week to June 2nd. The numbers of deaths are 10 fold greater than elsewhere in Scandinavia and half of them have been in care homes 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268146068430229506","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268145757938421800,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591184484000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:41:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Sweden's approach was IMO the wrong way around. It sought to avoid taking unpalatable action, rather than responding to the threat. The light touch, applied early on, has likely slowed transmission in the community, but the consequences for the elderly have been catastrophic 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268145757938421760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268144262006354000,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591184127000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:35:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Shutdown approaches reflect a situation where we just don't know enough about the transmission of the virus to get fancy about how we handle it. As we learn more, we should refine them and figure out which bits work and which don't 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268144262006353920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268143718315503600,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591183998000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:33:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There are many things we still do not know about the best way to respond to the pandemic. 'Lockdowns' are a blunt instrument, but they cover the bases 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268143718315503616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268142578383425500,"conversation_id":"1268142033753030656","created_at":1591183726000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"11:28:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"A telling quote from the article “Other countries started with a lot of measures all at once. The problem with that is that you don’t really know which of the measures you have taken is most effective” 👈🏽what is the goal? To find the perfect set of measures or save lives? 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":74,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1268142578383425537","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267856779276365800,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591115586000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:33:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Bottom line: an overdispersed R0 (👈🏽 technical term for superspreading risk) matters. It can lead to sudden outbreaks, but it might also be an Achilles heel for the virus. The importance of distancing to limit transmission remains, but milder measures *may* be effective 11/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267856779276365826","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267855896111198200,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591115375000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:29:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Conversely, as soon as we get 1 positive test among the contacts, we should be on the alert for more and redouble your efforts. This might make contact tracing more efficient - important when you have a lot of cases! 10/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267855896111198210","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267855250091905000,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591115221000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:27:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"If transmission is driven by superspreading then what we need to worry about are not so much cases, as transmission events. This may be important for contact tracing. The more contacts you test that come back negative, the less likely the case transmitted at all 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267855250091905026","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267854781709725700,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591115110000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:25:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"If most cases do not transmit, then we can focus interventions on superspreaders. It may be that relatively mild social distancing focused on larger gatherings, has a disproportionate effect, and there's more 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267854781709725697","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267854320877424600,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591115000000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:23:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"(it is actually a different news story, even though it uses the same image!)\n\nA consequence of this is that while most introductions go extinct, those that don't take off in a big way. And with enough introductions one is sure to take off eventually. But there is a plus side 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267854320877424651","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267850913093476400,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591114187000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"16:09:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Superspreading events have a disproportionate impact early in the pandemic. They effectively amplify the role of chance events in determining which places get hit hard and when. Larger population centers, it's more predictable. Smaller ones not so much 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267850913093476354","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267812088069718000,"conversation_id":"1267811637551038464","created_at":1591104931000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"13:35:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"we have known for some time that this can happen with betacoronaviruses. It was a feature of MERS and SARS - healthcare was especially vulnerable as a result of aerosols generated through eg intubation 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267812088069718016","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267616313805099000,"conversation_id":"1267616313805099008","created_at":1591058255000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"00:37:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"It is worth noting that most of the protests I’ve seen footage from have been characterized by mask use, and serious attempts at physical distancing.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267616313805099008","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267421217000218600,"conversation_id":"1267421217000218626","created_at":1591011740000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"11:42:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Good morning everyone. Before anyone asks, “immunological dark matter” isn’t a thing","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":32,"retweets_count":67,"likes_count":582,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1267421217000218626","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266926377992929300,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893761000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:56:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"We know where that leads (NYC, NJ, MA more to come). Let’s not do that again. Let’s be ready to take action to control the pandemic *before* it gets bad, not after. It's not going away, and even if there's a respite in summer, winter is coming 9/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266926377992929280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266925709139812400,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893602000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:53:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The places with the worst surveillance, will be worst placed to see anything coming their way. Meaning that they could be building a powderkeg of infection and know nothing about it because they’re not looking 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266925709139812352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266925237314166800,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893489000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:51:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"But the larger R gets, the shorter the doubling time. Remember it take time for infections now to show up in the ERs, and so even relatively large shifts in R will not be immediately apparent 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266925237314166784","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266924502006587400,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893314000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:48:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Let’s look at it instead in terms of the doubling time. How long until you will see twice as many new infections each week? Well depending on the serial interval, for R=1.1 it could be a month or so. Remember there’s no adequate surveillance of transmission in the community 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":37,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266924502006587397","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266924291846738000,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893264000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:47:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Test Trace and Isolate is important for controlling disease, it is not a way to measure how much transmission is going on right now, or in the future. If there's enough disease going on there may well be more contacts than contact tracers available to test them 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":40,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266924291846737922","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266923935964299300,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893179000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:46:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"That's not a lot more, but a change like that’s not something you’re gonna notice that quick, especially with the sketchy surveillance we have right now 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266923935964299267","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266923542010101800,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590893085000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:44:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"We have to take account of the time between infections. The serial interval (the time between cases in a transmission chain) is about 5-6 days. So if R=1.1 and you have 10 infections now, in about a week you expect them to have transmitted to about 11 people. Not a big jump 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266923542010101760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266922888776556500,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590892929000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:42:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"There seems a tendency to think that this will lead to an imminent second wave, or nothing much because of the better weather. In fact what we expect is something between the two. If R is greater than 1 that means exponential growth, but not an *immediate* surge 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":45,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266922888776556545","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266922640478023700,"conversation_id":"1266922640478023681","created_at":1590892870000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:41:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Against a backdrop of justified unrest across the US - as different places ‘open up’ to a greater or lesser extent, there remains a lot of confusion about what to expect if the effective reproductive number R(t) (also Re or just R) ticks above 1. 🧵incoming 1/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":106,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266922640478023681","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266921558393716700,"conversation_id":"1266921558393716741","created_at":1590892612000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"02:36:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Good lord. Just when you think things couldn't get worse  #Minneapolis #BlackLivesMatter","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":["#minneapolis","#blacklivesmatter"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266921558393716741","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266719549480751000,"conversation_id":"1266719483982479366","created_at":1590844449000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"13:14:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"“PPE guidance for frontline staff had just been mysteriously downgraded so that most of us now were (indeed, still are) advised to wear equipment that fell short of World Health Organisation and EU standards“","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1266719549480751106","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265101765235675100,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458739000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"02:05:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Sampling matters always. For genomic ID epi, when you are trying to infer where the infection came into your community, reflect that if you have not sampled the source you have no way whatsoever of detecting the importation, or what is actually going on in the population 10/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265101765235675136","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265100755918368800,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458499000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"02:01:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Where the WA story gets hard is that there were 2 early genomes that were closely related, and so it was natural to group them together. The difficult thing is that without any knowledge of other possible sources, you will always pin it to the one you know about 8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265100755918368773","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265099937164988400,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458304000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"01:58:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"That is not a long time in which to go global. It is also not a long time in which to accumulate the SNPs we need to work with. And to make things worse, we’ve also barely scratched the surface when it comes to which viruses are circulating where 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265099937164988419","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265099700736348200,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458247000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"01:57:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Normally you can say “nah, no chance these cases are connected” because they’re too different, they have too many mutations separating them/ But the most recent common ancestor of this virus, for ALL sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes to date, was around thanksgiving last year 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265099700736348160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265099342345654300,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458162000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"01:56:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"They matter because we know that the fewer SNPs, the more likely the two cases are part of the same transmission chain. Right? Well normally yes. But this is not a normal situation in case you had not noticed. All SARS-CoV-2 genomes are almost identical 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265099342345654274","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265099057976000500,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458094000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"01:54:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This means that over time lineages pick up small changes, called Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms or SNPs. A detective wouldn’t get a conviction on the basis that the fingerprint was similar but not the same. But for genomic epi SNPs matter 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265099057976000519","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265098788005384200,"conversation_id":"1265098558690246658","created_at":1590458030000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"01:53:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"For the uninitiated, genomic epi in infectious disease is sort of like DNA fingerprinting. It measures the relatedness of pathogens, so that when you find the same fingerprint, you can infer the same culprit. Except with genomes the culprit evolves, and picks up mutations 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1265098788005384198","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264389894320935000,"conversation_id":"1264389894320934917","created_at":1590289016000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:56:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Folks have expressed anxiety that my choice of songs to play on my guitar late at night are depressive. I have good news. \n\nI am going to move from Radiohead to Leonard Cohen!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":105,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264389894320934917","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264383707558920200,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590287541000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:32:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Population immunity capable of handling future waves of infection is important, but dead people aren’t immune, they’re dead. Duh. When you see an expert on TV pushing herd immunity ask yourself – is this person trying to save lives, or justifying deaths? 11/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":49,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264383707558920192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264382351716515800,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590287218000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:26:58","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"(they should also reflect that adding to the force of infection of a pandemic virus that kills or seriously sickens a significant fraction of those it infects, is horrendous. Even if you are fine, the neighbor you infect may well not be) 9/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264382351716515841","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264381844981760000,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590287097000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:24:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Those in the age groups not considered at risk oughta look at the numbers of kids we’re seeing with odd Kawasaki like disease. They should think about how little we know about this virus and the disease, and ask themselves “Do ya feel lucky?”\n\nWell do ya?\n\n8/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":30,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264381844981760002","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264381602349580300,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590287039000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:23:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The numbers are in and they are not good. The best early serology results point to this being about 5 to 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu (note there's uncertainty here). Don’t forget – there’s a degree of immunity in the population to seasonal flu. There isn’t to this 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264381602349580289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264381292562591700,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590286965000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:22:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Spoiler: the doubling time is fast enough, almost anything will be a problem even if the actual infection fatality rate (IFR) is low! Because you see the exponential too late and a bunch of people get it who didn't need to. \n\nOh, and by the way, the IFR for covid is not low 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":17,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264381292562591745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264380348420567000,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590286740000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:19:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I think some people felt a bit burned by H1N1 in 2009, which was a pandemic on paper but not experienced as such by most. This mean't that policy makers spent time wondering how serious it was but not looking at the doubling time 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264380348420567040","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264379798018719700,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590286609000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:16:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Having watched this a long time; ID epi types were privately talking pandemics in Jan – the difficulty was uncertainty over how many infections were mild. Given what we knew in Jan it was impossible to be sure 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264379798018719745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264379471693525000,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590286531000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:15:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"I’ve been clear lockdowns should be used when necessary to prevent a damaging surge in healthcare, we have to hope that actions around reopening right now will not make lockdowns necessary in future. Would be nice to have more than hope 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264379471693524994","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264379327380099000,"conversation_id":"1264378686737874944","created_at":1590286497000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"02:14:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"As this grim milestone is passed, it’s worth noting that the mood music in many places is back to early March. People are playing golf again, while the death toll continues to mount. Don't be fooled by the reductions in the NE. It is building elsewhere 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264379327380099077","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264011595702812700,"conversation_id":"1264008195795824641","created_at":1590198823000,"date":"2020-05-23","time":"01:53:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"We will keep learning. We will get better at fighting this. We already are. Good, honest data will help us. Thanks to all who are generating it and making it available. 5/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264011595702812672","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264009963489411000,"conversation_id":"1264008195795824641","created_at":1590198434000,"date":"2020-05-23","time":"01:47:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So imagine you're trying to decide whether you should close schools tomorrow because of a blizzard. Do you make your decision based on the weather forecast for tomorrow, or the snowfall totals for the season 3 weeks ago? 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264009963489411077","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264008834034663400,"conversation_id":"1264008195795824641","created_at":1590198164000,"date":"2020-05-23","time":"01:42:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"PCR (diagnostic) tests tell you who is infected *now*. This is what matters most when determining the likely local trajectory of the disease. Antibody tests tell you who *has been* infected up to about 3 weeks in the past (antibodies are produced in response to the virus) 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1264008834034663424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263680584217505800,"conversation_id":"1263680584217505792","created_at":1590119903000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"03:58:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Ok I am about to try and feel realxed by playing Fake Plastic Trees. I will follow up with either \"true love waits\" or \"Black Star\" depending on responses to this","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263680584217505792","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263636190923837400,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590109319000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"01:01:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And if they don’t develop antibodies where is the immunity coming from?!!!","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263636190923837440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263594790349705200,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590099449000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:17:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The pandemic is not a storm that has passed as the outbreaks in the NE subside. It is still with us. To date its progress has been mostly influenced by human actions. Distancing measures had the desired effect. What’s next? We’re going to find out whether we like it or not 15/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":177,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263594790349705217","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263592139188916200,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098817000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:06:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"What it does mean is that the immediate future of the pandemic is unclear. What we should expect in outline is more disease, and more death. Local flare ups, and eventually larger outbreaks in population centers. But when exactly and where is not readily predictable. 9n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263592139188916232","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263591420637573000,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098645000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:04:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"This doesn’t mean we’re done with this. There is not sufficient population immunity. Let's look at Sweden, which has been explicitly seeking that immunity through a light touch and fewer restrictions (though not none at all). 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":71,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263591420637573120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263591029325750300,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098552000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:02:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Masks are worn in many places. It’s not totally clear what impact this will have, or whether there might be a tradeoff with people being overly confident and making more contacts. However if they reduce the chance of transmission, that will have a beneficial effect 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":69,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263591029325750272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263590533944893400,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098434000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"22:00:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"People also behave differently in the summer. I don’t think it will be enough to halt it, but this is (mostly) spread through droplets and sustained close contact. Poor ventilation helps the virus. A larger proportion of contacts happening outside will reduce transmission 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":83,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263590533944893440","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263589990753136600,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098304000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"21:58:24","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"As we emerge, the contact rate is not expected to revert to what it was before the pandemic hit. The first surge will have changed the sorts of contacts people make. Heightened awareness will likely make folks wary. We’re not gonna flip back to March, but with better weather 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263589990753136640","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263588825638383600,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590098027000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"21:53:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"In simple models the transmission parameter has two components: the number of contacts, and the chance of transmission if a contact is made. A ‘lockdown’ reduces the first of these, but it’s a pretty blunt instrument with dire economic consequences 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263588825638383619","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263587578021679000,"conversation_id":"1263587578021679117","created_at":1590097729000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"21:48:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"🧵on reopening & what to look for. States are to greater or lesser extents and with more less clear plans, exiting ‘lockdowns’ designed to prevent spread of the virus. Experts are predicting dire consequences. It’s probably a little more complicated than that. Lemme explain. 1/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":200,"likes_count":439,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263587578021679117","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263569216030023700,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093351000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:35:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"Fortunately most states are reporting these results separately from each other, so we can still keep a handle on what’s what in most places. And they should go by their own numbers when making reopening decisions. But the capacity to confuse the public is serious 8/end","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263569216030023680","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263569066570264600,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093316000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:35:16","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"And mixing things together like this is just confusing. If a cake recipe called for a cup of salt and sugar you’d want to know if that was a cup each, or a mixture. And if a mixture in what proportion? The cake would taste pretty bloody different depending on the answer 7/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":44,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263569066570264576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263568905739649000,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093277000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:34:37","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So conflating the tests provides bad information for those making incredibly important decisions. Think of it this way: if you were going to the beach you’d check the weather forecast for today, not the one from three weeks ago 6/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263568905739649028","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263568675015180300,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093222000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:33:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"PCR tests are also how we will detect any coming surge of infections bearing down on healthcare. If you mix these with serological testing, you’re diluting that and making it look like the proportion of positive tests is lower than it actually is 5/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":24,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263568675015180297","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263568382017900500,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093152000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:32:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"So what happens if you mix these up? Well the PCR tests tell you what’s going on now, which is important to inform the public of the present risks of infection in their community, and also public health professionals 4/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":22,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263568382017900544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263568260613759000,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093123000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:32:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The other test is based on antibodies. It measures if a person has been infected anytime up to about 3 weeks in the past, not whether they are infected right now. Some of these tests are also plagued by low specificity which means a relatively high rate of false positives 3/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263568260613758982","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263567934787592200,"conversation_id":"1263567758819803136","created_at":1590093046000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"20:30:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":21184460,"username":"billhanage","name":"Bill Hanage","place":"","tweet":"The tests measure different things. A PCR test can detect an infection that is going on right now. It allows diagnosis of active covid cases, and is the sort of test we need if we are to have an accurate picture of the current state of the pandemic and if we can reopen safely 2/n","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1263567934787592192","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"21184460","username":"BillHanage"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
