{"id":1252241817829019600,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392689000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I'm seeing more and more suggestions that contact tracing and/or physical distancing isn't needed and we could solve COVID-19 with widespread testing alone. E.g. just test everyone once a week/fortnight to get R<1. Sounds straightforward? Unfortunately not... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":65,"retweets_count":816,"likes_count":1468,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241817829019648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250896191258312700,"conversation_id":"1250896187026280448","created_at":1587071867000,"date":"2020-04-16","time":"21:17:47","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Of course, I wasn't particularly unique or prescient - pretty much everyone working on flu at the time was considering the possibility of a pandemic respiratory infection, and most modellers of such infections were thinking about social interactions in one form or another. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":13,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1250896191258312705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1250540744504496000,"conversation_id":"1250540742562451458","created_at":1586987122000,"date":"2020-04-15","time":"21:45:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"Places with active case finding would tend to have a higher proportion of presymptomatic transmission, mainly due to quick quarantine of close contacts and isolation, thus reducing the probability of secondary spread later on in the course of illness.\" 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1250540744504496131","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249657795303157800,"conversation_id":"1249657779498950657","created_at":1586776610000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"11:16:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In practice, a combination of these things could help reduce transmission, and hopefully make aspects of normal routine possible (as in Singapore until recently). But there won't be an quick, simple solution - maintaining control will likely require several ongoing measures. 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":16,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1249657795303157760","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249657789728858000,"conversation_id":"1249657779498950657","created_at":1586776609000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"11:16:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"So what are the future options for COVID-19? We could test more widely - but even if we tested everyone often, many cases would have already spread infection by the time they had positive test. So unless we're also tracing at-risk contacts, the outbreak would likely continue...5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":61,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1249657789728858119","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1249657785668849700,"conversation_id":"1249657779498950657","created_at":1586776608000,"date":"2020-04-13","time":"11:16:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The first locally transmitted case in the UK was reported end of Feb, when UK had so far performed over 400 tests per confirmed case. Clearly infections had gone undetected (as in many countries) and it was these missed infections that would lead to the current epidemic... 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1249657785668849665","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248188440577015800,"conversation_id":"1248188438098182145","created_at":1586426289000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"09:58:09","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Specifically, 14% were IgG positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 2% positive by PCR from throat swab. \n\nImportant to emphasise that this was a location with a particularly large COVID-19 outbreak – the proportion so far infected overall in Germany is likely to be much lower than 14%.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":163,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1248188440577015809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1248155832916852700,"conversation_id":"1248155830823903232","created_at":1586418514000,"date":"2020-04-09","time":"07:48:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The authors estimated that in a single test of some who first had symptoms 10 days ago, there's a 33% chance of a false negative with a nasal swab, and 53% chance with a throat swab.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":77,"likes_count":142,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1248155832916852736","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1247988538542567400,"conversation_id":"1247988533123571714","created_at":1586378628000,"date":"2020-04-08","time":"20:43:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"“Before attempting to interpret any model, we should ask what it’s trying to illustrate in the first place”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":54,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1247988538542567434","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1246132979086262300,"conversation_id":"1246132971943362561","created_at":1585936228000,"date":"2020-04-03","time":"17:50:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In any outbreak - whether flu, Ebola, Zika, or COVID - we must start with the assumption we're only seeing a fraction of the picture. Given the potential biases in data, it's therefore important to find conclusions that can hold up despite these biases. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":90,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1246132979086262274","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245336669840191500,"conversation_id":"1245336637497913345","created_at":1585746373000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"13:06:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's tempting to add as much detail as possible to a model, and criticise anything simpler. But the appropriateness of a model will depend on situation you're facing, the evidence you have that a specific process is predictive of risk, and question you're trying to answer. 13/13","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":23,"likes_count":135,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336669840191492","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245336663418691600,"conversation_id":"1245336637497913345","created_at":1585746372000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"13:06:12","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In other words, it's important to think about age groups and context of interactions for respiratory infections, but if we focus too much on individual-level social behaviour, we may risk adding complexity without necessarily adding more accuracy. 11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":57,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336663418691584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245336653440352300,"conversation_id":"1245336637497913345","created_at":1585746370000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"13:06:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In other words, we might have high variation at the *individual level*, but once we have a large number of infections, the *population level* dynamics are relatively much less variable. This is the logic behind most population-based epidemic models (e.g. the SIR model). 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":94,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336653440352256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245336644863041500,"conversation_id":"1245336637497913345","created_at":1585746368000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"13:06:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"But what about a larger epidemic? Say there are currently 10,000 infections in a population (as there may be in many countries now). How many more would we expect these people to infect in the next few days? 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336644863041536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245336637497913300,"conversation_id":"1245336637497913345","created_at":1585746366000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"13:06:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"A common criticism of population-based epidemic models is that they don't account for individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. superspreading events). But how much of a problem is this? 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":205,"likes_count":464,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336637497913345","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245248031940804600,"conversation_id":"1245248025146134530","created_at":1585725241000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"07:14:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's worth noting, of course, that any decline in COVID-19 transmission will take a week or two to show up as a change in case data (because of the incubation period and delay to reporting), and up to a month to show up as a change in deaths. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":77,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245248031940804608","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1245248026823856000,"conversation_id":"1245248025146134530","created_at":1585725239000,"date":"2020-04-01","time":"07:13:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Typically, people in UK make about 10 daily contacts on average – after lockdown this dropped to around 3 daily contacts among the surveyed sample of 1,356 UK adults (which was designed to be representative of age, gender, and geographical location). 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245248026823856129","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244549533280895000,"conversation_id":"1244549516352720897","created_at":1585558706000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"08:58:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's important to have rigorous critiques and reviews of modelling studies, but equally critics should be careful about making sweeping statements about disease models, when the modelling contribution to the evidence base has been wider and more nuanced than many realise. 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":14,"retweets_count":76,"likes_count":449,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1244549533280894976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1244549516352721000,"conversation_id":"1244549516352720897","created_at":1585558701000,"date":"2020-03-30","time":"08:58:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Coverage of disease modelling tends to focuses on population-level 'what could happen next?' scenario analyses and predictions. So I wanted to highlight some early COVID-19 insights that you've probably heard about, but may not realise modelling groups were involved in... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":609,"likes_count":1218,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1244549516352720897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243994603327565800,"conversation_id":"1243994598025895937","created_at":1585426400000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"20:13:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This could be issue in other locations too: \"Our findings also suggest caution may be needed for analyses of the trajectories of epidemic curves elsewhere. Epidemics could appear to be growing faster than they actually are, because of rapid expansions in testing practices.\" 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":52,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243994603327565824","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243994601750507500,"conversation_id":"1243994598025895937","created_at":1585426400000,"date":"2020-03-28","time":"20:13:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The authors also note reporting changes could have biased some early transmission estimates: \"if we had estimated the exponential growth in the epidemic curve without accounting for the changes in case definitions, we would have substantially overestimated the growth rate\" 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243994601750507520","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243494202354393000,"conversation_id":"1243494200122974210","created_at":1585307095000,"date":"2020-03-27","time":"11:04:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to effectively spread globally, including in warm and humid climates, suggests that seasonality cannot be considered a key modulating factor of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":71,"likes_count":172,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243494202354393089","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243138090811691000,"conversation_id":"1243138088685252608","created_at":1585222191000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"11:29:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Models aren't simply opaque, untrustworthy magic tricks. Nor are they infallible solutions to every problem. They're just a set of ideas & processes, which - if used properly - can help us understand the fragments of information we have, and uncover what might really be going on.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":85,"likes_count":246,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1243138090811691009","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242569572680708000,"conversation_id":"1242569554171179008","created_at":1585086646000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"21:50:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Of course, all these studies have limitations for estimating asymptomatic infections, and to understand how much infection there has actually been, what we really need is population serological surveys. This is the key message of the Oxford paper (and one I fully agree with) 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":70,"likes_count":305,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242569572680708101","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242569562270376000,"conversation_id":"1242569554171179008","created_at":1585086644000,"date":"2020-03-24","time":"21:50:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There are several (admittedly imperfect) other datasets out there that have suggested a reasonable proportion of infections might be symptomatic, particularly in older groups (and hence severity is high)... 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":76,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1242569562270375936","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241853184018129000,"conversation_id":"1241853170294427653","created_at":1584915846000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"22:24:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We're also assuming the delay from confirmation-to-death is similar across countries, and all COVID-19 deaths are reported, but this is likely to vary too - we'll update the estimates as more data become available. 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":82,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241853184018128897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241853179865817000,"conversation_id":"1241853170294427653","created_at":1584915845000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"22:24:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Of course, countries have differing age-structure and health capacity, which means the baseline CFR won't be 1–1.5% in all of them. We're working to account for these differences, but in the meantime, this should give a rough idea of where we might be in terms of reporting. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":84,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241853179865817090","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241853177047236600,"conversation_id":"1241853170294427653","created_at":1584915844000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"22:24:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Unsurprisingly, South Korea has high estimated % cases reported. Germany also has noticeably higher proportion than most, based on its low deaths:cases ratio. Among countries with >10 deaths, our estimates suggest around half have <10% of symptomatic cases being reported. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":96,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241853177047236612","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241853174643900400,"conversation_id":"1241853170294427653","created_at":1584915844000,"date":"2020-03-22","time":"22:24:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Our estimation works as follows: there's evidence the case fatality ratio should be 1–1.5% in populations with China-like age structure, so if (once we adjust for delays) we calculate a much higher CFR for a country, it suggests not all cases are being reported... 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":20,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241853174643900418","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241463230331060200,"conversation_id":"1241463227248185346","created_at":1584822874000,"date":"2020-03-21","time":"20:34:34","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It should be pretty obvious those quoted risks are too low: if cases only infect 1% of their contacts during COVID-19 growth phase, R=2-3 would mean people are making 200-300 contacts on average while infectious. In reality, people generally have about 10-15 daily contacts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":66,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241463230331060224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1241089577139536000,"conversation_id":"1241089577139535874","created_at":1584733788000,"date":"2020-03-20","time":"19:49:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Lots of people are now getting interested in infectious disease epidemiology (which is great), but I wanted to do a quick thread on some common mistakes/misunderstandings to watch out for if you're new to these sorts of datasets/questions... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":50,"retweets_count":2139,"likes_count":4689,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1241089577139535874","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240777538273755100,"conversation_id":"1240774378834534400","created_at":1584659392000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"23:09:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Based on those few case studies, it seems like they might be contributing. But as we acknowledged in that paper, still unclear how much targeting those specific interactions would reduce overall transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":4,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1240777538273755143","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240774390620569600,"conversation_id":"1240774378834534400","created_at":1584658641000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"22:57:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Of course, COVID-19 is different infection to SARS & Ebola, with different transmission characteristics. But we still need to be careful about looking at past transmission events and being tempted to assume in hindsight we could always have predicted - and prevented - them  5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":39,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1240774390620569601","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240552803191476200,"conversation_id":"1240552797357080576","created_at":1584605811000,"date":"2020-03-19","time":"08:16:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It’s important to emphasise we’re not there yet - Europe and US failed to contain COVID-19 with contact tracing first time round. It will take time to develop better tracing methods, testing capacity, and other targeted strategies. But it may be well be our best route of this.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":26,"likes_count":73,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1240552803191476224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239646072294854700,"conversation_id":"1239646065130983424","created_at":1584389629000,"date":"2020-03-16","time":"20:13:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Flusurvey now includes questionnaire on COVID-19 as well. And remember to fill it out even if you feel fine – knowing how many people were and weren't ill at each point in time in different areas is very useful information! 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":75,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239646072294854656","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239234971031818200,"conversation_id":"1239146318301483009","created_at":1584291615000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"17:00:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Quick clarification on this: the calculation gives the number of *new* cases that we'd expect to be appearing in a month's time – to get the total cases overall, we'd need to add up all the generations of infection. Still, same conclusion: we really need to reduce transmission.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":229,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239234971031818246","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239146321984065500,"conversation_id":"1239146318301483009","created_at":1584270480000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"11:08:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"(Above calculation assumes reproduction number of 2.5 and serial interval of 5 days for COVID-19 in early stages of an outbreak. These are obviously rough calculations based on average values – second value comes from 1.25^6=3.8)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":67,"likes_count":335,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239146321984065536","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239146320029507600,"conversation_id":"1239146318301483009","created_at":1584270479000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"11:07:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Even if we can't fully stop transmission, sustained changes in behaviour (e.g. self-isolation for week when ill, hand washing, reducing close-knit interactions where possible) could dramatically reduce spread.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":188,"likes_count":687,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239146320029507584","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1239146318301483000,"conversation_id":"1239146318301483009","created_at":1584270479000,"date":"2020-03-15","time":"11:07:59","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Early in outbreak, each COVID-19 case infects ~2.5 others on average. There's ~5 days between one infection and next, so we'd expect one case to lead to 2.5^6 = 244 more cases in a month. If we can halve transmission, so each infects 1.25 others instead, we'd expect 4 more cases.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":106,"retweets_count":2509,"likes_count":5239,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239146318301483009","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821530798297000,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193043000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Given the seriousness of the situation, we are obviously working to get our latest modelling analysis out in the public domain as soon as we can. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":174,"retweets_count":323,"likes_count":1993,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821530798297088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821528940281900,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193043000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"To be clear: we have to reduce impact on UK as much as we can. But we are in this for the long term. A couple of weeks of closed schools and cancelled events won’t solve this - we will have to fundamentally change our lifestyles. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":74,"retweets_count":683,"likes_count":2310,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821528940281858","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821526973153300,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193042000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Clearly we cannot finely tune the path of this outbreak. The best we can do is identify actions that have highest chance of effectively and sustainably reducing impact on the population and burden on NHS. 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":266,"likes_count":1296,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821526973153280","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821523835818000,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193042000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"A lot of modellers around the world are working flat out to find best way to minimise impact on population and healthcare. A side effect may end up being herd immunity, but this is merely a consequence of a very tough option - albeit one that may help prevent another outbreak. 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":323,"likes_count":1485,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821523835817984","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821521902260200,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193041000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The communication about COVID science has generally been clear in the UK, but talk of ‘herd immunity as the aim’ is totally wide of the mark. Having large numbers infected isn’t the aim here, even if it may be the outcome. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":33,"retweets_count":500,"likes_count":1925,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821521902260226","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821519998038000,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193041000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Sadly, even large-scale changes (like those other European countries are making, and we may very soon) may not control COVID for long. We must flatten the curve as much as possible, but there could still be many infections (and hence immunity). 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":318,"likes_count":1490,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821519998038017","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821517821186000,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193040000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"For me, herd immunity has never been the outright aim, it’s been a tragic consequence of having a virus that - based on current evidence - is unlikely to be fully controllable in long term in the UK. 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":57,"retweets_count":465,"likes_count":2140,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821517821186048","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238821515526897700,"conversation_id":"1238821515526897664","created_at":1584193040000,"date":"2020-03-14","time":"13:37:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I am deeply uncomfortable with the message that UK is actively pursuing ‘herd immunity’ as the main COVID-19 strategy. Our group’s scenario modelling has focused on reducing two main things: peak healthcare demand and deaths... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":625,"retweets_count":6417,"likes_count":15087,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238562540252250000,"conversation_id":"1238562537991548928","created_at":1584131295000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"20:28:15","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"As a side note, since my involvement with TED started in 2018, I've been very impressed by their level of fact checking. I was asked to provide a reliable source for every single number I mentioned during that interview.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":101,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238562540252250125","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238418012526567400,"conversation_id":"1238418007824764930","created_at":1584096837000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"10:53:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's worth emphasising that government decisions almost never rely on a single model/paper. The aim of SPI-M is to provide multiple models/scenarios to create as solid an evidence base as possible for very tough decisions. Here are some examples of relevant work by members... 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":78,"likes_count":253,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418012526567424","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238418011167613000,"conversation_id":"1238418007824764930","created_at":1584096837000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"10:53:57","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"SAGE are in turn advised by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), which includes representatives from leading modelling groups. This currently includes Exeter, Bristol, Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, Cambridge, Manchester, Lancaster, Strathclyde & Edinburgh 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":60,"likes_count":229,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418011167612929","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238418009607139300,"conversation_id":"1238418007824764930","created_at":1584096836000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"10:53:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer take advice from a specially convened Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which includes experts on the emergency involved (in this case COVID-19) 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":57,"likes_count":211,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418009607139328","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238418007824765000,"conversation_id":"1238418007824764930","created_at":1584096836000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"10:53:56","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"How does mathematical modelling analysis feed into UK government COVID-19 policy? You've probably heard of Cobra, chaired by the PM, but there are two other steps worth knowing about... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":90,"retweets_count":1286,"likes_count":2357,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238418007824764930","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238152499477074000,"conversation_id":"1238152492178976769","created_at":1584033534000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"17:18:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There isn't going to be an easy solution to COVID-19. Among some extremely difficult options, we have to pick the most effective, sustainable way to minimise risk of overwhelming health system - and impact on the people most at risk. 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":52,"retweets_count":278,"likes_count":1098,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152499477073923","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238152495404384300,"conversation_id":"1238152492178976769","created_at":1584033533000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"17:18:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's easy to say 'let's just do what Wuhan did', but the measures there have involved a change to daily life that really has been unimaginable in scale and impact. And as we've seen, China cannot sustain them indefinitely. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":21,"retweets_count":225,"likes_count":763,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152495404384256","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238152492178976800,"conversation_id":"1238152492178976769","created_at":1584033532000,"date":"2020-03-12","time":"17:18:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"A couple of key takeaways from our analysis of early COVID-19 dynamics in Wuhan:\n\n1. We estimated that the control measures introduced - unprecedented interventions that will have had a huge social and psychological toll – reduced transmission by around 55% in space of 2 weeks 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":83,"retweets_count":1613,"likes_count":2781,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152492178976769","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237679598567141400,"conversation_id":"1237679595983384576","created_at":1583920785000,"date":"2020-03-11","time":"09:59:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"👆Worth having a look at the 'discussion' section of the paper in the above link, and there were of course some limitations to the BBC Pandemic study, which we describe in more detail there.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":18,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1237679598567141376","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1237481575375409200,"conversation_id":"1237481573521526785","created_at":1583873573000,"date":"2020-03-10","time":"20:52:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"To give you a sense of the containment measures implemented in Singapore: if a COVID-19 case caught a taxi but can't remember the details, contact tracing teams will sift through CCTV to find it.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":111,"likes_count":303,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1237481575375409155","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236568646975176700,"conversation_id":"1236568643468746752","created_at":1583655914000,"date":"2020-03-08","time":"08:25:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note this work is not yet peer-reviewed. It also assumes under-reporting is constant over time, so any sudden changes in detection/importation could bias estimates (e.g. Sweden). And transmission shown at national/regional level, when of course there may be local variation.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":79,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1236568646975176704","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1236055480792952800,"conversation_id":"1236055478209306624","created_at":1583533566000,"date":"2020-03-06","time":"22:26:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We'll continue to fast-track release of key data streams to support COVID-19 modelling efforts – next up will be data on spatial patterns of interaction.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1236055480792952836","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235700941422198800,"conversation_id":"1235700923978129408","created_at":1583449037000,"date":"2020-03-05","time":"22:57:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Obviously there are several limitations to our analysis (detailed in report above). But we think this is probably current best estimate for CFR. Overall, it would suggest that 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%) of infections (asymptomatic & symptomatic) in China were fatal.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":48,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235700941422198787","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235126628847702000,"conversation_id":"1235124770896826369","created_at":1583312110000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"08:55:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Postscript: in above calculation, if household size is 2.5, it of course means that there are 1.5 contacts that can be made, not 2.5 (because the case can't infect themselves). But this doesn't change conclusion – if anything, it only increases the implied transmission risk.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235126628847702017","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235124783559434200,"conversation_id":"1235124770896826369","created_at":1583311670000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"08:47:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"These apparently pessimistic assumptions give 35% x 2.5 + 2.3% x 50 = 2. In other words, to get R=2, you need a much higher within and between household transmission than contact tracing investigations in containment phase would suggest. 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235124783559434240","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235124779742646300,"conversation_id":"1235124770896826369","created_at":1583311669000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"08:47:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"…and to be conservative let’s assume people have 50 contacts outside household. If R=2, it means we have to have to find within and between household secondary attack rates that make this equation work: SARh x 2.5 + SARc x 50 = 2   6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235124779742646273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235124776047464400,"conversation_id":"1235124770896826369","created_at":1583311668000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"08:47:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In general, R = SAR x contacts. So assuming people have a similar # contacts in ongoing outbreak (44.5 per person), we’d need an SAR among close contacts of at least 5% to get R of 2-3. But 5% is still quite low, so we should also think the situation with closest contacts... 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":10,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235124776047464448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235124772935282700,"conversation_id":"1235124770896826369","created_at":1583311668000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"08:47:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This study traced people who’d come into contact with 10 symptomatic early travel-related cases in US. Overall 445 close contacts were identified, and only 2 got infected (i.e. secondary attack rate, SAR = 2/445=0.45%). But this scenario isn’t reflective of an ongoing outbreak 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":42,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1235124772935282688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234568554646777900,"conversation_id":"1234568232310317063","created_at":1583179055000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"19:57:35","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Analysis also assumes under-reporting is constant over time, so any sudden changes in detection rate could bias estimates","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1234568554646777857","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234568235133087700,"conversation_id":"1234568232310317063","created_at":1583178979000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"19:56:19","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note there is less confidence in estimates based on the most recent data points (hence the fade away in the plot)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1234568235133087758","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1234379948087005200,"conversation_id":"1234379941841711104","created_at":1583134087000,"date":"2020-03-02","time":"07:28:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"For example: check if they’re up-to-date with the situation, share good infection control advice (hand washing, don’t touch face, wipe down phone), discuss how they might reduce interactions during an outbreak (and what supplies/medicines they might need to do so).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":31,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1234379948087005184","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1233318573520584700,"conversation_id":"1233318572006440960","created_at":1582881036000,"date":"2020-02-28","time":"09:10:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In general, the idea that there are a few special people who will always be responsible for sparking outbreaks is stigmatising nonsense.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1233318573520584705","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231649460444434400,"conversation_id":"1231649456694661121","created_at":1582483088000,"date":"2020-02-23","time":"18:38:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Data from countries/settings with more detailed reporting should provide some better insights into severity in the coming week or so. The next task will be finding ways to generalise these estimates to other locations, which may have different health capacities.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1231649460444434433","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231649458980561000,"conversation_id":"1231649456694661121","created_at":1582483088000,"date":"2020-02-23","time":"18:38:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"To calculate severity/fatality properly, we need to divide the number of severe/fatal outcomes by the number of cases with known outcomes. The problem is that we are currently having to divide one value that's not always reliable by another that's even more unreliable.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":111,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1231649458980560897","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231572643830259700,"conversation_id":"1231564875622764545","created_at":1582464774000,"date":"2020-02-23","time":"13:32:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note these plots 👆 show intensity of social mixing between different groups only - will need to incorporate these matrices into models to make predictions of infection risk in different ages","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1231572643830259712","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1231565530672377900,"conversation_id":"1231564875622764545","created_at":1582463078000,"date":"2020-02-23","time":"13:04:38","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In other words: social mixing within/between different age groups is almost always important for driving respiratory outbreak dynamics – and if risk of infection is disproportionately high in households, then also need to think about modelling spread within/between households.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1231565530672377856","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230918480553181200,"conversation_id":"1230916532630364162","created_at":1582308809000,"date":"2020-02-21","time":"18:13:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Yes, still holds under assumption that transmission in new location is similar to Wuhan in early Jan.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":0,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230918480553181189","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230783402602877000,"conversation_id":"1230783400459587584","created_at":1582276604000,"date":"2020-02-21","time":"09:16:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Caveat: there are more details to emerge about the Iran local/exported cases, and the above calculation makes a lot of very strong assumptions, e.g. about local transmission, pattern of severity, reporting, connectivity to other locations - all could influence estimates.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230783402602876930","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230487363559854000,"conversation_id":"1230487360632172545","created_at":1582206023000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"13:40:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"Our review highlights the difficulty in estimating seriousness of infection with a novel virus using case fatality risk. In addition, substantial variability in age-specific estimates complicates interpretation of the overall case fatality risk and comparisons among populations\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230487363559854081","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230418985105096700,"conversation_id":"1230418979837161474","created_at":1582189720000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"09:08:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If you need these kinds of the data for #COVID19 modelling, we'd be keen to hear feedback on what might be useful in the next iteration of data release. Next on list includes contact patterns by population density and household size.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230418985105096706","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230418983951765500,"conversation_id":"1230418979837161474","created_at":1582189720000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"09:08:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Data to reproduce these mixing matrices are openly available in the supplement of the pre-print 👆","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230418983951765504","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230416801634377700,"conversation_id":"1230416799554002944","created_at":1582189200000,"date":"2020-02-20","time":"09:00:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Should emphasise that we did not rely on recent case data from Wuhan in the analysis - we focused on exported cases that left prior to travel restrictions, and data on the extent of infection on 10 evacuation flights out of Wuhan in late Jan/early Feb","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230416801634377728","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230253945387393000,"conversation_id":"1230253937263087616","created_at":1582150372000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"22:12:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Our results provide some initial evidence that R was down to around 1 by the end of Jan. The key question, which we're currently investigating, is whether it has since dropped below this crucial value.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":16,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230253945387393026","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230253943160213500,"conversation_id":"1230253937263087616","created_at":1582150371000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"22:12:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We can't estimate R precisely for more recent days unless we rely on the Wuhan case data, which has a lot of uncertainty around it - the recent decline in confirmed cases would give an R<1 estimate, but we aren't confident yet that this is a robust signal.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230253943160213504","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1230253940320678000,"conversation_id":"1230253937263087616","created_at":1582150371000,"date":"2020-02-19","time":"22:12:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It wasn't possible to estimate the direct impact of specific control measures from available data (behaviour change is also likely to be a factor), but does suggest a big reduction in transmission coinciding with late Jan interventions.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1230253940320677894","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229708013486911500,"conversation_id":"1229708001243795458","created_at":1582020211000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"10:03:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The upshot: the widely quoted 2% fatality for China is calculated incorrectly, because it's based on data that is under-reported and doesn't account for delays. But, confusingly, these errors may actually cancel out, leading to an estimate that is right for the wrong reasons.. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":18,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":304,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708013486911488","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229708007405211600,"conversation_id":"1229708001243795458","created_at":1582020210000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"10:03:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It takes time to know what happens to cases. If this week 100 patients have been ill, and 1 of them has died, it doesn't imply 1% of cases will die - because we don't know what will eventually happen to the other 99. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":197,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708007405211648","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229708005551243300,"conversation_id":"1229708001243795458","created_at":1582020210000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"10:03:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's well established there are likely far more symptomatic cases in China than have been detected/confirmed. If we are calculating 'deaths/cases', and we underestimate number of cases, it will cause us to *overestimate* fatality risk. But this leads onto the second problem... 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":157,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708005551243265","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229708003533824000,"conversation_id":"1229708001243795458","created_at":1582020209000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"10:03:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In real-time, estimates for the proportion of cases that are fatal are skewed by two main factors: under-reporting of the number of cases, and the delay from symptoms first appearing to death. First, let's deal with under-reporting... 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":39,"likes_count":200,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708003533824000","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229708001243795500,"conversation_id":"1229708001243795458","created_at":1582020209000,"date":"2020-02-18","time":"10:03:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If the number of reported confirmed cases of #COVID19 continues to slow down, the 2% fatality rate people have been quoting will appear to rise. But it will be a statistical illusion. Let me explain why.... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":64,"retweets_count":567,"likes_count":1061,"hashtags":["#covid19"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229708001243795458","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1229387790468735000,"conversation_id":"1229374844770361344","created_at":1581943864000,"date":"2020-02-17","time":"12:51:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note this is focusing on red bars in plot above 👆, as cruise ship unlikely to be representative of transmission in other communities/settings","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1229387790468734976","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1228987075585806300,"conversation_id":"1228987071861329925","created_at":1581848326000,"date":"2020-02-16","time":"10:18:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note the screenshot 👆. This sort of stuff doesn’t need to be rewarded with engagement metrics.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1228987075585806336","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1227845129769308200,"conversation_id":"1227845127718277125","created_at":1581576065000,"date":"2020-02-13","time":"06:41:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We’re now working to incorporate new data to get clearer idea of how current reporting relates to underlying outbreak dynamics","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1227845129769308160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1227591361345577000,"conversation_id":"1227589833020911617","created_at":1581515562000,"date":"2020-02-12","time":"13:52:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There are obviously a lot of limitations to this modelling analysis – and a lot of uncertainty in out estimates – but we'll be revisiting as new data come in, and making updated pre-print available soon.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":9,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1227591361345576961","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1227522895762595800,"conversation_id":"1227522893472550912","created_at":1581499239000,"date":"2020-02-12","time":"09:20:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This simple one-population model can be useful for specific areas (e.g. cities), and over short time windows when transmission might not vary that much. But I’d be very cautious about applying it to larger areas, let alone the whole world.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1227522895762595841","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1226889090248970200,"conversation_id":"1226889088336322565","created_at":1581348128000,"date":"2020-02-10","time":"15:22:08","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"[Models] are generally most useful when they identify impacts of policy decisions which are not predictable by commonsense; the key is usually not that they are ‘right’, but that they provide an unpredicted insight.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1226889090248970242","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1226438701162651600,"conversation_id":"1226438698453159937","created_at":1581240747000,"date":"2020-02-09","time":"09:32:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Remember, it took years to pin down the spillover host for SARS, and that knowledge - while useful - didn’t help control the outbreak in 2003, nor did it help us prevent the current one.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1226438701162651649","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1226438698453160000,"conversation_id":"1226438698453159937","created_at":1581240746000,"date":"2020-02-09","time":"09:32:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"All this speculation about which animal was intermediate host for #2019nCoV reminds me of Ebola in 2014, when people were arguing about bat trees while cases continued to climb.\n\nReservoir host is an interesting puzzle, but we currently have much bigger questions to deal with.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":126,"hashtags":["#2019ncov"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1226438698453159937","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1226149310510850000,"conversation_id":"1226149304051654656","created_at":1581171751000,"date":"2020-02-08","time":"14:22:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"“Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%)”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1226149310510850053","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1226136288115511300,"conversation_id":"1226136286219640834","created_at":1581168646000,"date":"2020-02-08","time":"13:30:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"SAR is useful because it gives us a measure of risk-per-contact, rather than just the average number of secondary infections (R0). If the SAR is high and R0 is fairly low, it suggests that transmission is driven by relatively few (potentially easily definable) contacts.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":21,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1226136288115511300","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224624789177819100,"conversation_id":"1224624784459255808","created_at":1580808276000,"date":"2020-02-04","time":"09:24:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This is obviously very early analysis (hence the large uncertainty in the estimate), but a clearer picture of should emerge in the coming days.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1224624789177819137","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224624786879344600,"conversation_id":"1224624784459255808","created_at":1580808276000,"date":"2020-02-04","time":"09:24:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Additional caveat: only confirmed international cases with a known onset date were analysed (88/153) – if all confirmed cases could be included, it would reduce the case fatality estimate (probably by around a half).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":11,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1224624786879344641","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1224443274854666200,"conversation_id":"1224443274854666241","created_at":1580765000000,"date":"2020-02-03","time":"21:23:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If people are spreading misinformation about #2019nCoV that needs debunking, please screen grab the post rather than quote retweet it (which will only amplify their profile further)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":109,"hashtags":["#2019ncov"],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1224443274854666241","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
