{"id":1250045948316864500,"conversation_id":"1250045795551805440","created_at":1586869153000,"date":"2020-04-14","time":"12:59:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"Found this anonymous trump admin quote particularly rich:\n\n“The idea that is was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1250045948316864512","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1243173118669193200,"conversation_id":"1243172907620188161","created_at":1585230543000,"date":"2020-03-26","time":"13:49:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"unspoken corollary is need for large number of ventilators given early and prolonged vent needs....","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1243173118669193216","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1242143070134702000,"conversation_id":"1242141425632006146","created_at":1584984960000,"date":"2020-03-23","time":"17:36:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"I understand the desire for miracle treatments in a crisis, but the reality is that very few treatments with in vitro evidence turn out to be beneficial when studied rigorously, and if they do the effect is small or moderate. There are serious potential toxicities to any med","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":3,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1242143070134702080","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1240354331041222700,"conversation_id":"1240354329954942977","created_at":1584558491000,"date":"2020-03-18","time":"19:08:11","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"\"4) challenge implementing infection control practices inc inadequate supplies of PPE and other items (hand sanitizer) \n5) delayed recognition of cases bc of low index of suspicion, limited testing availability, and difficulty identifying COVID19 based on signs & symptoms alone\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1240354331041222657","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1238568517231947800,"conversation_id":"1238568517231947776","created_at":1584132720000,"date":"2020-03-13","time":"20:52:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"Pandemic response is not a commodity","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1238568517231947776","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1235351719044944000,"conversation_id":"1235351717652434945","created_at":1583365776000,"date":"2020-03-04","time":"23:49:36","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"...let's call these policy changes what they really are - structural violence against poor Americans.\n\nWhile food insecurity predicts poor health outcomes in virtually every context in which it has been studied, our research focuses on infectious diseases... (cont.) 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1235351719044943872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232855696720396300,"conversation_id":"1232855684124901377","created_at":1582770678000,"date":"2020-02-27","time":"02:31:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"Impoverished households are also the most vulnerable to long-lasting consequences from direct and indirect costs related to illness, quarantine, and temporary or permanent loss of livelihood. 4/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1232855696720396288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232855694996537300,"conversation_id":"1232855684124901377","created_at":1582770677000,"date":"2020-02-27","time":"02:31:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"This is not surprising - e.g. look at the huge differences in outcomes during ebola and cholera epidemics between impoverished populations and those with ready access to labs, fluids, ICU, etc. 3/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1232855694996537344","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1232855692194783200,"conversation_id":"1232855684124901377","created_at":1582770677000,"date":"2020-02-27","time":"02:31:17","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"While the case fatality rate is thought to be 1-3.5%, ~3x as many people are seriously ill and need oxygen +/- long-term ventilator support. In places where these are less available (or for populations, like the poor, with less access) mortality is likely to be much higher 2/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":2,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1232855692194783233","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1223364602655924200,"conversation_id":"1223363579816153089","created_at":1580507824000,"date":"2020-01-31","time":"21:57:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":171383921,"username":"aaronrichterman","name":"Aaron Richterman, MD","place":"","tweet":"please","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AaronRichterman/status/1223364602655924224","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"171383921","username":"AaronRichterman"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272228248848601000,"conversation_id":"1272228227336089600","created_at":1592157826000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"18:03:46","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Different countries have used different combinations of measures, introduced in different sequences, against a background of different outbreak dynamics. Understanding the most effective and efficient way to maintain ongoing control in future will therefore be crucial. 11/11","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":67,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1272228248848601091","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272228246998876200,"conversation_id":"1272228227336089600","created_at":1592157825000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"18:03:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Overall, it highlights that it's not that helpful to talk about 'lockdown' as a simple on/off binary measure – countries introduced a whole range of stringent (and often interdependent) measures around the same time, some of which will have had more impact that others. 10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":19,"likes_count":60,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1272228246998876160","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1272228230016221200,"conversation_id":"1272228227336089600","created_at":1592157821000,"date":"2020-06-14","time":"18:03:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The paper is by Simon Wood (who developed mgcv R package). In contrast to studies that constrain transmission decline to when specific measures went in, this paper uses flexible function to try & reconstruct changes in early infections from later deaths (accounting for delays) 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":6,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1272228230016221190","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268465603939045400,"conversation_id":"1268465598272602112","created_at":1591260741000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"08:52:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"So the question isn't really \"how much of a problem is 10 imported COVID-19 cases a day?\", it's \"what proportion of cases are imported, and how much overall reduction in infection will come from preventing these imported cases?\" 5/5","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":104,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268465603939045377","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268465600843653000,"conversation_id":"1268465598272602112","created_at":1591260740000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"08:52:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If 5% are imported and 95% are locally acquired, then preventing imported cases would have far less relative effect, because most transmission is likely to be happening from local cases, which will continue even if importations are prevented. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":34,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268465600843653121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268465599602098200,"conversation_id":"1268465598272602112","created_at":1591260740000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"08:52:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If half of new cases are imported and half are locally acquired infections, then (assuming detection/control is same for both) we'd expect half of transmission to come from imported cases. Stopping imported cases would therefore halve the current sources of transmission. 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":28,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268465599602098185","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268465598272602000,"conversation_id":"1268465598272602112","created_at":1591260740000,"date":"2020-06-04","time":"08:52:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If a country has 10 imported COVID-19 cases a day, how much of a problem is it? Well, it depends on how many cases there currently are locally... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":93,"likes_count":259,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268465598272602112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268185177508978700,"conversation_id":"1268185168386428929","created_at":1591193882000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"14:18:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Vague claims about unseen infections can be shifted post-hoc, but this doesn't improve our knowledge. To tackle COVID, we need to define our questions clearly and define (and run!) the studies that will help us answer them. 6/6","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":113,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268185177508978688","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268185174866571300,"conversation_id":"1268185168386428929","created_at":1591193882000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"14:18:02","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If people think the proportion asymptomatic (not presymptomatic) is outside the 20-80% range, what community testing design or meta-analysis would be sufficient to show this? 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268185174866571264","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268185173167935500,"conversation_id":"1268185168386428929","created_at":1591193881000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"14:18:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If people think the IFR is actually higher/lower than 0.5-1%, what numerator and denominator data would give a conclusive lower/upper bound that would show this? 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":27,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268185173167935489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268185171364364300,"conversation_id":"1268185168386428929","created_at":1591193881000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"14:18:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If people think that heterogeneity in contact network structure is dramatically reducing the herd immunity threshold, what contact data and seroprevalence would show this? 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268185171364364289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1268185169971818500,"conversation_id":"1268185168386428929","created_at":1591193880000,"date":"2020-06-03","time":"14:18:00","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"If people think that pre-existing cross-reactive cellular or humoral immunity is reducing susceptibility, then what assay/samples would be required to conclusively show this? 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":5,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1268185169971818498","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267864321243197400,"conversation_id":"1267864311529197569","created_at":1591117384000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"17:03:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"To my knowledge, we were 1st modelling group to publicly call the peak in Wuhan. But I’m not telling this story because it was easy & obvious & everyone else should have seen it. Although our conclusion turned out to be on right lines, it was anything but obvious at the time. 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":20,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267864321243197441","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267864317719990300,"conversation_id":"1267864311529197569","created_at":1591117383000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"17:03:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"At the time, we were revising a paper on early COVID dynamics. Our working conclusion was that there had been a decline in transmission in late Jan, coinciding with control measures. But had we got it wrong? Was the outbreak actually still accelerating? 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":10,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267864317719990272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267737633284927500,"conversation_id":"1267737631481364480","created_at":1591087179000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"08:39:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"R measures average transmission per case, but in reality some cases may generate more infection than others, e.g. because of events/places they visit while infectious. So we need a way to estimate variation in R at the individual-level... 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":63,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267737633284927489","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267737631481364500,"conversation_id":"1267737631481364480","created_at":1591087179000,"date":"2020-06-02","time":"08:39:39","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I'm getting asked more about the 'k' parameter that describes variation in the reproduction number, R (i.e. describes superspreading). But what does this parameter actually mean? A short statistical thread... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":20,"retweets_count":326,"likes_count":691,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267737631481364480","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267367486527340500,"conversation_id":"1267367486527340544","created_at":1590998929000,"date":"2020-06-01","time":"08:08:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I’m seeing frustrating trend emerging - early on, some researchers suggested populations already had high immunity, and serology would show this. Now serology is available and doesn’t show this, these claims are apparently shifting post-hoc to justify why new data can be ignored.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":57,"retweets_count":590,"likes_count":1707,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267367486527340544","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267143258750234600,"conversation_id":"1267143250797830149","created_at":1590945469000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"17:17:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"That being said, the underlying modelling approach (estimating latent states from available data in Bayesian framework) is a potentially useful one, so it will be interesting to see how the broader work progresses.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":6,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":32,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267143258750234626","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1267143253654220800,"conversation_id":"1267143250797830149","created_at":1590945468000,"date":"2020-05-31","time":"17:17:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Implementing Bayesian state-space models with an observation process (which seems to be the basis of 'dynamic causal modelling') is a common approach in epidemiological modelling, so it also seems odd to claim that it's a new/different method...","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":13,"likes_count":51,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1267143253654220801","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266788776115871700,"conversation_id":"1266788767236489219","created_at":1590860954000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"17:49:14","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The problem with analysing risk, of course, is it may be subject to 'confounding'. E.g. we may think people in certain places are more at risk, but really it's just certain age groups at risk, and location reflects age. So we need to adjust for this confounding in analysis 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":1,"likes_count":1,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1266788776115871745","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266788769144979500,"conversation_id":"1266788767236489219","created_at":1590860953000,"date":"2020-05-30","time":"17:49:13","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"First, some background. There are three really important methods in epidemiology: retrospective cohorts, case-control studies, and confounding... 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":5,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1266788769144979457","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266323608604946400,"conversation_id":"1266323606251896833","created_at":1590750050000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"11:00:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Epidemiological (and media) reports often focus on population-level patterns, but individual-risk for COVID is influenced by transmission in our local networks of interactions, which is something we can help reduce even if transmission continues elsewhere.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":92,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1266323608604946439","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266264714515906600,"conversation_id":"1266264700150353921","created_at":1590736008000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"07:06:48","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We’re still in early stages of this pandemic. So even if you’re frustrated & sceptical about what’s happening with wider testing/tracing/isolation, do stick with the aspects of it that are in your control, because these things can make real difference in reducing transmission 4/4","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":16,"retweets_count":112,"likes_count":321,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1266264714515906568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1266264700150354000,"conversation_id":"1266264700150353921","created_at":1590736005000,"date":"2020-05-29","time":"07:06:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I’m seeing some fatalism creep in around whether contact tracing system/app will work. But remember, most the reduction in transmission is likely to come from the first step - when you promptly self-isolate and get tested as soon you have symptoms (and household isolate too)...1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":370,"likes_count":770,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1266264700150353921","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265925043755856000,"conversation_id":"1265925029088329736","created_at":1590655024000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"08:37:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Instead, we should probably think of it like those early introductions, which took time to spark. Countries may relax measures & initially see little change in cases. But it doesn't necessarily mean risk isn't there - it may just be that, by chance, the spark is yet to come. 8/8","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":19,"retweets_count":107,"likes_count":280,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265925043755855872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265925042296275000,"conversation_id":"1265925029088329736","created_at":1590655024000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"08:37:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"When we talk about the effects of relaxing measures, we shouldn't think of it like a clockwork process, e.g. relax measures a bit, R immediately goes up a bit; ease them a lot, R immediately goes up a lot. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":31,"likes_count":119,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265925042296274944","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265925031068151800,"conversation_id":"1265925029088329736","created_at":1590655021000,"date":"2020-05-28","time":"08:37:01","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"When reports talk about transmission chains and reproduction numbers, it can conjure an image of a clockwork outbreak, e.g. 3 cases infecting 3 more, who infect 3 more... The resulting image is one of a steadily growing outbreak, which may be undetected at first. 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":55,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265925031068151808","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265571772910506000,"conversation_id":"1265571771262152705","created_at":1590570798000,"date":"2020-05-27","time":"09:13:18","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Have been reflecting more on this after a reviewer recently (and correctly) noted we should update an example of 'effective' early containment we'd included in our submitted paper, because the local situation had changed dramatically since then.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":29,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265571772910505990","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265303264469430300,"conversation_id":"1265296713671151619","created_at":1590506781000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"15:26:21","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"(Note these are hypothetical values – see above article for details)","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":7,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265303264469430273","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265250674578686000,"conversation_id":"1265250671105892353","created_at":1590494242000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"11:57:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"We must be cautious, however, in generalising... [patients] provided the data because they were tested, and they were tested for reasons, in part at least, to do with the symptoms of COVID-19 that they were showing.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":41,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265250674578685952","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1265250673278492700,"conversation_id":"1265250671105892353","created_at":1590494242000,"date":"2020-05-26","time":"11:57:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"It has been widely reported as implying that viral loads in children are similar to adults, and yet the data in the article show children between 1 and 10 having on average 27% (conservative 95% interval 8% to 91%) of the viral load of adults aged over 20.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":58,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265250673278492673","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1264650504388427800,"conversation_id":"1264650504388427783","created_at":1590351150000,"date":"2020-05-24","time":"20:12:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I spent this weekend refining our contact tracing analysis. One of the things that’s always stood out is that for these targeted measures to work, we need public adherence to isolation/quarantine to be very high. But I fear it’s now going to be far more difficult to achieve this.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":330,"retweets_count":3863,"likes_count":11627,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1264650504388427783","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263794946336751600,"conversation_id":"1263794946336751618","created_at":1590147170000,"date":"2020-05-22","time":"11:32:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Worth remembering that the locations lifting COVID control measures too hastily without good surveillance & targeted control in place are also the locations that will take a longer time to spot new flare-ups","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":24,"retweets_count":414,"likes_count":1265,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263794946336751618","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263380032547946500,"conversation_id":"1263379705195044864","created_at":1590048246000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"08:04:06","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Credit to Hamish Gibbs for all his great work on these visualisations.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":2,"likes_count":8,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263380032547946498","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263379707984314400,"conversation_id":"1263379705195044864","created_at":1590048169000,"date":"2020-05-21","time":"08:02:49","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Colocation isn't quite the same as mobility, as it gives a rough measure of proximity, so could provide a useful additional/alternative metric for evaluating local changes in behaviour.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":4,"likes_count":15,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263379707984314368","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263167450062954500,"conversation_id":"1263167448527896576","created_at":1589997563000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"17:59:23","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There's still a lot to understand about local effectiveness of specific control measures. But if we don't look at the complete picture, there's a risk of attributing all the reduction in transmission to a single measure - and possibly not the one that actually had most effect 2/2","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":154,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263167450062954503","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263167448527896600,"conversation_id":"1263167448527896576","created_at":1589997562000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"17:59:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"A reminder that most countries have introduced a broad combination of COVID measures. Rather than just saying \"place X did/didn't lockdown\", we should ask which closed schools/workplaces/shops/restaurants, or had active case finding/tracing/quarantine/masks/travel restrictions 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":115,"likes_count":400,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263167448527896576","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263094245684101000,"conversation_id":"1263094231813455872","created_at":1589980109000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"13:08:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Yet because of the First World War, Hudson didn't publish any more work on epidemiology after those two papers. In 1917, she joined the Air Ministry to work on aircaft design - work for which she later got an OBE. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":237,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263094245684101121","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263094236003664000,"conversation_id":"1263094231813455872","created_at":1589980107000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"13:08:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"She then studied maths at Cambridge where she got first class marks in 1903. At the time, women weren't allowed to get degrees, so - despite matching the male student who came 7th in the year - her performance wasn’t included in the official listing. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":271,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263094236003663874","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263094231813456000,"conversation_id":"1263094231813455872","created_at":1589980106000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"13:08:26","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I want to tell you a story about a mathematician you’ve probably never heard of, but whose work has helped shape a lot of what we’re taking about today... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":42,"retweets_count":1194,"likes_count":3025,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263094231813455872","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263063642150449200,"conversation_id":"1263063062455750656","created_at":1589972813000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"11:06:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":59,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263063642150449152","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1263004118861467600,"conversation_id":"1263004116500045825","created_at":1589958622000,"date":"2020-05-20","time":"07:10:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"I think any robust comparison of infection fatality risk will have to be stratified by age. Especially as we know transmission and severity has not been equally spread across age groups in many countries with large outbreaks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":14,"likes_count":92,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1263004118861467650","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1262638584940683300,"conversation_id":"1262638582558347264","created_at":1589871471000,"date":"2020-05-19","time":"06:57:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Also, a reminder that forecasting (i.e. “this is what we think is going to happen”) is a *tiny* part of the worldwide COVID modelling effort. Most work is focused on understanding features of infection/transmission and exploring possible scenarios for control measures.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1262638584940683266","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261932310095638500,"conversation_id":"1261932302407536641","created_at":1589703082000,"date":"2020-05-17","time":"08:11:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"What if only 160 cases had been detected in the Korea flare up? Or 100? Given how easily SARS-CoV-2 can spread undetected, it’s worth considering what might happen in places where measures are relaxed and surveillance doesn’t pick up all of an emerging cluster.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":13,"retweets_count":61,"likes_count":230,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1261932310095638528","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261236412214579200,"conversation_id":"1261236410079739904","created_at":1589537167000,"date":"2020-05-15","time":"10:06:07","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Distinguishing reporting variation from genuine changes in the underlying epidemics will be crucial in the coming weeks.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":10,"retweets_count":17,"likes_count":78,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1261236412214579200","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1261037283404402700,"conversation_id":"1260839061318705152","created_at":1589489691000,"date":"2020-05-14","time":"20:54:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note: there is still very little test data available pre-symptoms, so bear this uncertainty in mind when interpreting these results.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":9,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1261037283404402689","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259504932559954000,"conversation_id":"1259504927807868929","created_at":1589124351000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"15:25:51","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"One useful metric at low numbers is the proportion of cases that can be linked to known outbreak clusters. It's clearly more concerning to have 20 scattered local cases that don't have clear sources than a cluster of 20 linked cases that can all be traced to an imported case. 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":18,"likes_count":46,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259504932559953920","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259504930697678800,"conversation_id":"1259504927807868929","created_at":1589124350000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"15:25:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"(By 'very low' case numbers, I'm talking about a handful of reported cases per day. When we adjust for under-reporting, many European countries probably still have thousands of cases per day, so unfortunately R is still very relevant.) 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":26,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259504930697678848","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441490352365600,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109225000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Final technical note: if cases are under-reported, it doesn't affect R estimation as long as under-reporting is consistent (because R uses the ratio of change). However, detection is now improving in many countries, so need to be extra-cautious about interpreting R 10/10","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":21,"retweets_count":54,"likes_count":274,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441490352365568","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441485826703400,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109224000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:44","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In summary: we generally have to estimate R from multiple datasets, each with its own notable uncertainties. So don't expect a highly precise estimate of R, or one that will change in an easily measurable way from day-to-day. 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":44,"likes_count":187,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441485826703361","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441481334632400,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109223000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:43","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There's also the issue of setting-specific transmission. Community transmission is currently low in many European countries, with outbreaks centred on healthcare and care homes. This means current case data doesn't mean what it meant two months ago. 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":137,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441481334632448","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441477324812300,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109222000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:42","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Because most of these delays occur over a period of several days, and people are infectious for several days, it generates statistical uncertainty that makes precise daily estimates of R very difficult... 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":30,"likes_count":121,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441477324812288","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441475361878000,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109221000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"So the first task is to work out data to use. Should we estimate R from cases, or hospitalisations, or deaths? The answer, of course, is we should look at all these data sources, noting that each has different delays we need to account for 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":143,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441475361878017","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1259441470618001400,"conversation_id":"1259441470618001409","created_at":1589109220000,"date":"2020-05-10","time":"11:13:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":40,"retweets_count":664,"likes_count":1368,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1259441470618001409","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258736072890212400,"conversation_id":"1258736069358637058","created_at":1588941040000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"12:30:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"But suppose you flip a coin a few times and record the outcomes  - you'll start to notice predictable features in the data. The coin flips are a *stochastic process*, and we can analyse them statistically (e.g. total number of heads/tails will follow binomial distribution) 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":3,"likes_count":23,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258736072890212352","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258736071304757200,"conversation_id":"1258736069358637058","created_at":1588941040000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"12:30:40","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The two words are often used interchangeably, but there is a subtle difference. Think about a coin toss. If you flip a coin, the outcome is a *random* event - you have no idea if it will land heads or tails... 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":0,"likes_count":14,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258736071304757248","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258711969776963600,"conversation_id":"1258711969776963585","created_at":1588935293000,"date":"2020-05-08","time":"10:54:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Quick shout out to the anonymous peer-reviewers of our latest paper (and all our other ones). Like most scientists, you’re no doubt getting huge volume of journal requests, and giving up what little spare time you have to provide reviews on a short deadline.\n\nSo thank you.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":12,"likes_count":172,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258711969776963585","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258314391373611000,"conversation_id":"1258314389771431942","created_at":1588840503000,"date":"2020-05-07","time":"08:35:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Maybe you think such surveillance/enforcement is going too far, even in a pandemic. Or maybe you think these approaches are justified, and European countries should have already introduced them. Either way, I expect we’ll be seeing a lot more of this debate.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":33,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258314391373611008","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258016758126063600,"conversation_id":"1258016756146352129","created_at":1588769542000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"12:52:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Despite a few pundits' claims, there is growing scientific consensus on several key points. This is not a mild flu. If populations worldwide had not changed behaviour dramatically, health systems would've been overwhelmed. If measures are relaxed too quickly, they still could be.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":17,"retweets_count":128,"likes_count":345,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258016758126063616","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1258016756146352000,"conversation_id":"1258016756146352129","created_at":1588769542000,"date":"2020-05-06","time":"12:52:22","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"It's easy to focus on individuals, but COVID science (and science in general) is a huge collaborative endeavour, with several (often under-acknowledged) contributors. Many people, in many groups, in many countries are working over-time to improve our understanding of this virus.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":102,"likes_count":425,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1258016756146352129","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1257731974971695000,"conversation_id":"1257731972966875144","created_at":1588701645000,"date":"2020-05-05","time":"18:00:45","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This means it might look like cases aren't declining so much now in some areas, whereas in reality they are and we're just seeing a large proportion of them.\n\n(Note: there's a 2 week lag in the figures because of the data streams we use to estimate under-reporting).","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":7,"likes_count":35,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1257731974971695107","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256179413923901400,"conversation_id":"1256179411101069312","created_at":1588331485000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"11:11:25","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"The vast majority of these clusters were associated with indoor settings... Almost all clusters involved fewer than 100 cases (141/152), with the outliers being transmission in hospitals, elderly care, worker dormitories, and ship settings.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":38,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1256179413923901443","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256140530196582400,"conversation_id":"1256140519572484102","created_at":1588322215000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"08:36:55","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"There is a much wider discussion to be had about what will/won't be feasible, and what privacy trade off is/isn't acceptable. But when we talk about reproducing control strategies from other countries, it's important to consider all aspects of that strategy. 7/7","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":32,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1256140530196582405","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256140525033394200,"conversation_id":"1256140519572484102","created_at":1588322213000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"08:36:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"From a purely public health point of view, giving outbreak investigators access to detailed data on suspected cases makes it less likely that infections will be missed - it's much easier to track contacts and keep them in quarantine if you know their location and test status. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":81,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1256140525033394176","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1256140519572484000,"conversation_id":"1256140519572484102","created_at":1588322212000,"date":"2020-05-01","time":"08:36:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"As many countries start to expand isolation and tracing efforts, it's worth highlighting a couple of important aspects of the response in places like Taiwan, Korea and Hong Kong: surveillance infrastructure and strict enforcement. 1/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":230,"likes_count":394,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1256140519572484102","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254468705788051500,"conversation_id":"1254468703183405062","created_at":1587923621000,"date":"2020-04-26","time":"17:53:41","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"One notable caveat is it looks like the primary cases were identified based on symptoms, so if there were chains of asymptomatic transmission happening, they may not have been picked up.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":15,"likes_count":68,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254468705788051463","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254172919737077800,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587853100000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"22:18:20","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Additional note: the 10,000 daily cases above is just an illustrative example (current number likely to be higher in UK currently, because of under-reporting). Key takeaway is that for given number of cases, we estimate 20–30 contacts would need to be traced per case on average.","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":25,"retweets_count":58,"likes_count":195,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254172919737077762","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166934733631500,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851673000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:33","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Finally, a huge thank you to the tens of thousands of volunteers who contributed to the BBC Pandemic project. You took the time to help us build a unique dataset on social interactions in the UK, and several COVID-19 projects are now benefitting from these insights. 15/15","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":25,"likes_count":182,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166934733631493","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166932925878300,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851672000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Note again: this is *preliminary work* and has not yet been peer-reviewed. The code is available online (link in the paper at the top), and we're also working on an interactive tool so people can explore other scenarios. 14/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":27,"likes_count":146,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166932925878272","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166931193704400,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851672000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:32","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In summary: a combination of isolation, tracing and some setting-specific physical distancing may enable control of COVID-19 with less disruption. Designing distancing measures to target hard-to-trace interactions could also enhance relative effectiveness of tracing. 13/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":144,"likes_count":289,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166931193704450","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166929482399700,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851671000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We also looked Iceland-scale mass population testing (i.e. 0.7% of population per day). Such testing would be very helpful for monitoring the epidemic, but unsurprisingly it had a negligible impact on reducing transmission, because cases would be detected too late (if at all) 12/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":77,"likes_count":189,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166929482399748","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166927204855800,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851671000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"App-based tracing could reduce transmission, but because only a proportion of UK has smartphone (and both case and contact would need to have and use app for tracing to work), it would likely need to be combined with other measures. 11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":4,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166927204855809","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166925086732300,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851670000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This meant combining isolation & contact tracing with restrictions on gathering size outside home/work/school could make tracing relatively more effective, even if some contacts are missed. But size limit may have to be quite small to see effect, potentially <5-10 contacts 10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":116,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166925086732389","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166923119669200,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851670000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Thanks to the BBC data, we could also categorise contacts into that have been met before and those that hadn't - the latter perhaps being ones contact tracing would be more likely to miss. 79% of work contacts had been met before, but only 52% of contacts in other settings. 9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166923119669252","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166921479684000,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851670000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:30","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Any proposed strategy would of course need to consider logistical as well as epidemiological feasibility, but we outline these numbers to give a sense of what the scale of tracing might look like under different scenarios. 8/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":95,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166921479684098","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166919248261000,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851669000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We also estimated around 20-30 contacts would need to be traced per symptomatic case on average. If there were 10,000 new symptomatic cases per day, it meant around 150,000 to 400,000 contacts would be quarantined each day under the scenarios we considered. 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":11,"retweets_count":87,"likes_count":196,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166919248261120","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166917549613000,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851669000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:29","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"We estimated combined isolation/tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone, but still tough to ensure R<1. If combined with physical distancing measures, self-isolation & contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control. 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":62,"likes_count":162,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166917549613057","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166915532144600,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851668000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:28","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Combining these large-scale data with a transmission model of social interactions and transmission in four settings (home, school, work, other) we were able to simulate where contacts are typically made, and how effective different approaches might be... 5/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":28,"likes_count":106,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166915532144641","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254166910993936400,"conversation_id":"1254166905692307456","created_at":1587851667000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"21:54:27","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"In this new analysis, we compared a range of physical distancing and isolation/tracing measures, including app-based tracing, remote working, limits on gathering size, and mass population testing... 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":1,"retweets_count":36,"likes_count":102,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254166910993936384","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254084777046618000,"conversation_id":"1254084767496261632","created_at":1587832085000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"16:28:05","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"This suggests we shouldn't be comparing 2.5% with cases over 5 days - we should be looking at the previous 2 weeks. Looks like ~2400 cases were reported during this period, suggesting around 25 infections per reported case. In other words, 1/3 of the value they estimate... 6/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":9,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084777046618112","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254084773284372500,"conversation_id":"1254084767496261632","created_at":1587832084000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"16:28:04","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"To work out under-reporting we need to compare that 2.5% to how many active infections were being reported at same point. The model assumes people are infectious for 5 days, i.e. it effectively compares 5d worth of reported cases (i.e. ~800) with the 2.5% prevalence estimate. 4/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":21,"likes_count":129,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084773284372480","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1254084771535376400,"conversation_id":"1254084767496261632","created_at":1587832083000,"date":"2020-04-25","time":"16:28:03","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"The key issue here is that the number currently infected (i.e. prevalence) isn't the same as the number of new cases (incidence). To account for this, the model fits to both observed cases and the number infected (i.e. the 2.5% prevalence estimate). And here's the issue... 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":34,"likes_count":169,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084771535376391","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1253300379049177000,"conversation_id":"1253300376675196929","created_at":1587645070000,"date":"2020-04-23","time":"12:31:10","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"\"Serological testing had a crucial role in establishing a link between clusters, showing its use in identifying convalescent COVID-19 cases and supporting epidemiological investigations.\"","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":11,"likes_count":36,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1253300379049177088","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252868620863934500,"conversation_id":"1252868617621790724","created_at":1587542131000,"date":"2020-04-22","time":"07:55:31","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"“We estimated that when the case definitions were changed, the proportion of infections being detected as cases increased by 7·1 times (95% credible interval 4·8–10·9) from version 1 to 2, 2·8 times (1·9–4·2) from version 2 to 4, and 4·2 times (2·6–7·3) from version 4 to 5.”","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":0,"retweets_count":8,"likes_count":25,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252868620863934464","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241839291281400,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392694000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Inefficient population testing could also crowd out better targeted approaches, such as contact tracing, which can informed by we know about transmission chains and - as we get more data - which contacts/environments are particularly risky 11/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":8,"retweets_count":29,"likes_count":139,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241839291281409","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241837357703200,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392694000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:54","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"But remember, we need to stop at least 2/3 of transmission to control COVID (and even then it won't disappear immediately). Unfortunately, even our very optimistic scenario falls short of this - if mass testing were feasible, it would prob need to be biweekly, not weekly. 10/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":5,"retweets_count":24,"likes_count":128,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241837357703168","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241835449356300,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392693000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:53","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Optimistically, let's assume successful detection prevents 75% of onward transmission on average. We've estimated we can detect 86% of infections, so multiplying together that means preventing just under 65% of transmission.... 9/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":3,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":107,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241835449356289","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241831280160800,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392692000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:52","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"So to recap, our optimistic assumptions have 95% of people doing the test, 95% doing it properly, and 95% of infections being picked up. Multiplying together, that means we'll detect around 86% of infections. But there's another problem... 7/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":2,"retweets_count":22,"likes_count":115,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241831280160769","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241822161735700,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392690000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"Even if we ignore the (enormous) logistical challenges of pulling together resources and expertise to run the required millions of daily PCR tests, we still have to remove 2/3 of the opportunities for transmission. So let's suppose everyone receives a weekly test. What next? 3/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":7,"retweets_count":33,"likes_count":144,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241822161735682","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
{"id":1252241819972313000,"conversation_id":"1252241817829019648","created_at":1587392690000,"date":"2020-04-20","time":"14:24:50","timezone":"UTC","user_id":453124512,"username":"adamjkucharski","name":"Adam Kucharski","place":"","tweet":"On average, each person infected with COVID-19 can spread infection to around 3 others in the absence of control measures. So if we want to get fully back to normal, testing will need to stop at least 2/3 of transmission (so each case infects less than one other person). 2/","mentions":[],"urls":[],"photos":[],"replies_count":12,"retweets_count":43,"likes_count":180,"hashtags":[],"cashtags":[],"link":"https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1252241819972313090","retweet":false,"quote_url":"","video":0,"near":"","geo":"","source":"","user_rt_id":"","user_rt":"","retweet_id":"","reply_to":[{"user_id":"453124512","username":"AdamJKucharski"}],"retweet_date":"","translate":"","trans_src":"","trans_dest":""}
