# Tools for Reasoning

- Gedankenexperiment: simulate the choice
- Incubation: give my intuition time to work on it
- Systems: there are more inputs than I think
- Probability: my intuition is [probably wrong](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem)
- Modeling: [my model is wrong](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Map–territory_relation) and should be judged by its [usefulness](https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/57407/what-is-the-meaning-of-all-models-are-wrong-but-some-are-useful)
